Where are personal computer CPUs headed?

[xrunner]

Back in the day it was all about the clock speed, and overclocking. I went through all that.

Then it turned to multi-core CPUs. I currently have a 6-core Athlon, and haven't upgraded in about 3-4 years.

I used to keep up with the technology, but since it got so damn capable I just lost interest. So from you guys (and gals) in the know, where is the technology headed?

More and more cores - or where? 

[c4757p]

Smartphones.

[xrunner]

Smartphones.

Yea really. I sometimes argue why call them smartphones? Aren't they just handheld computers that can make phone calls?

[c4757p]

Because we'd run out of breath if we kept having to say that.

[c4757p]

I personally like the term "PDA". Because really, my Android phone is just a faster Palm Pilot. I was always amazed that we all thought it was something new.

[xrunner]

I personally like the term "PDA". Because really, my Android phone is just a faster Palm Pilot. I was always amazed that we all thought it was something new.

Right! I had several Palm Pilots. Where did the Smartphone label come from? A big cell phone company?

[c4757p]

Some marketing wanker, wherever it was, and a damn good one at that. Look! It's new! And shiny. It's a smartphone, buy one because you're smart!

[lemmegraphdat]

I like the computer in a sheet of paper idea.

[xrunner]

I like the computer in a sheet of paper idea.

Yea that's cool - but I'm not talking footprint - I'm talking brute computing power. Where's the increase in computing power coming from in the next 5 - 10 years? 128 core CPUs or what?

[c4757p]

CMIIW, but hasn't the "increase in computing power" slowed down somewhat? It's been years since I've wished for my computer to go faster, and I suspect it's similar for others. I think it's now going to be a decrease in size and price.

[xrunner]

CMIIW, but hasn't the "increase in computing power" slowed down somewhat? It's been years since I've wished for my computer to go faster, and I suspect it's similar for others. I think it's now going to be a decrease in size and price.

I agree. I haven't wished for my PC to go faster because there is nothing for it to go faster to do.

I really thought by now (2013) I'd be simply talking to my PC and it being able to carry out my commands as I stated them - no keyboard. I don't think that's really requires A.I. - doesn't it just require a language parser and a fast CPU? Either I'm wrong (we are to dumb to program this yet) or we are just not going in the direction I (and a lot of others) thought we wold be going by this time. 

[IanB]

I personally like the term "PDA". Because really, my Android phone is just a faster Palm Pilot. I was always amazed that we all thought it was something new.

No. It really isn't. Could a Palm Pilot wirelessly connect to the Internet both indoors and while out shopping? Take digital photos? HD video? Act as a GPS? Provide a moving map display with voice directions? Be a fully featured web browser? With a high res color display? Play games like Angry Birds and Cut the Rope? Be a speaker phone? Store and play 1000 hours of music at hi-fi quality? Store and play video and movies?

[NiHaoMike]

CMIIW, but hasn't the "increase in computing power" slowed down somewhat? It's been years since I've wished for my computer to go faster, and I suspect it's similar for others. I think it's now going to be a decrease in size and price.

Semiconductor manufacturing is pushing up against the limits, but even now we have no idea when (if ever) it will stop. Most likely the continuation of computers getting faster would be around new and redesigned architectures and eventually, some new materials.

As for demand for computing power, we'll never meet it. Every time someone comes out with a faster computer, many find a use for it. Many things once considered impractical to do at home (like real time video processing) are now easily done on common PCs.

Considering that networking is improving at a much slower pace than computing, I think a great application of more computing power would be to make the most of network bandwidth. With almost all mobile ISPs having data caps, fight back by using computing power to aggressively compress stuff as well as prefetch using alternate paths when possible. Maybe even create a whole new P2P network (let's just call it "YepNet") that is free to use as long as you have the hardware.

[c4757p]

I personally like the term "PDA". Because really, my Android phone is just a faster Palm Pilot. I was always amazed that we all thought it was something new.

No. It really isn't. Could a Palm Pilot wirelessly connect to the Internet both indoors and while out shopping? Take digital photos? HD video? Act as a GPS? Provide a moving map display with voice directions? Be a fully featured web browser? With a high res color display? Play games like Angry Birds and Cut the Rope? Be a speaker phone? Store and play 1000 hours of music at hi-fi quality? Store and play video and movies?

A newer Palm Pilot could connect to Wi-Fi, just like my smartphone. Cellular Internet access is just an extension of the fact that many had mobile service, it was bound to happen eventually. GPS? Yep. It wasn't integrated, but Wi-Fi wasn't integrated into laptops years ago and we didn't stop calling them laptops when it was added. Everything else is just a realization of "faster".

[Marco]

For the most part cheap and highly integrated.

Only gamers will continue to keep getting faster pricey processors, but those will become slightly re-purposed server processors since the volume is insufficient to justify designs aimed at PCs.

[IanB]

Everything else is just a realization of "faster".

Not "faster". "Smaller".

Did you see Dave's teardown of the add-on GPS for a Palm Pilot? It was a giant carbuncle, as big as the PDA. Only the most dedicated idiot would have wanted to buy that thing and attach it to their PDA.

A Pilot was an executive toy, used by a few. Today's iPhones and Androids are used by every teenager everywhere. The difference is the convenience of small size, long battery life, and broad appeal.

It is not so much technical features that make a difference, but convenience and accessibility. Just the same as personal computers took off when they were no longer the size of a mainframe.

[lemmegraphdat]

Don't we reach the limits of silicon pretty soon?  Doesn't the computer in a chip sort of become like a discreet component? We lump a bunch of them together in a machine with a screen you can actually see well.

[c4757p]

A Pilot was an executive toy, used by a few. Today's iPhones and Androids are used by every teenager everywhere. The difference is the convenience of small size, long battery life, and broad appeal.

Well, yes. All I'm saying is that a smartphone and a Palm Pilot are both PDAs in the same way that the IBM PC-XT and my laptop are both personal computers. Yes, they've changed a lot. But they're still fundamentally the same thing and go by the same name. At no moment along the evolution of the PC did we get something shoved down our throats by a marketing weenie as being something completely NEW!! because it never was. Then Apple realized that they could monetize the cell phone market by slapping "teenager" features into a PDA, polishing it until it blinds you, and never uttering the term PDA in the marketing materials.

[Rasz]

Technology of what? PC CPUs? Current direction is GPU integration (APU)
GPU for symmetric multiprocessing is all the rage now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heterogeneous_computing

$100 GPU breaks 1 Teraflop while $200 CPU struggles at 100 Gigaflops.

Next step will be heavy usage of OpenCL enabled SoCs in smartphones (year? two?).

[IanB]

Well, yes. All I'm saying is that a smartphone and a Palm Pilot are both PDAs in the same way that the IBM PC-XT and my laptop are both personal computers. Yes, they've changed a lot. But they're still fundamentally the same thing and go by the same name. At no moment along the evolution of the PC did we get something shoved down our throats by a marketing weenie as being something completely NEW!! because it never was. Then Apple realized that they could monetize the cell phone market by slapping "teenager" features into a PDA, polishing it until it blinds you, and never uttering the term PDA in the marketing materials.

But it's not about marketing, or "teenager" features, it's about utility, meaning convenience. I'm not a teenager (far from it), and consequently I have owned and used a Psion 3a and a Psion 5. Both failed because they didn't do enough. They weren't phones, and they didn't have wireless networking. Sure, they could plug into phones, but who wants to plug their PDA into a phone and do a modem dial up?

The advance of humanity is not about technical features, but about the convenient delivery of technology at the point of use.

Until you make your technology convenient to use, it is not useful. This is a lesson engineers everywhere must always remember.

I'm not "blinded" by Apple marketing, I simply like my iPhone because it does helpful things where and when I need, with a minimum of friction or inconvenience. The iPhone succeeded not because of a powerful marketing machine, but because design engineers realized that market appeal is all about packaging attractive features and delivering them in an easy to use format. The iPhone didn't need selling, it sold itself.

[c4757p]

I'm not "blinded" by Apple marketing

Oh, dear. I only meant it's literally shiny, as in they put a lot more effort into making it look nice. Apologies if it sounds like I was accusing you of being "blinded by marketing", that's not what I meant to say at all. 

I'm not really arguing here, just clarifying. I mostly agree with you, except on the rather unimportant technicality of terms. A PDA never was a phone, but I really do still think a smartphone is just a more advanced PDA. It became easier to use in the same way that PCs did, but PCs are still PCs. Still, it really doesn't matter a rat's ass if a smartphone is a PDA or not, so I'll just stop arguing... 

[IanB]

I don't think we are really arguing different positions. I quite agree that an iPhone is a PDA.

What I'm really trying to say is that technology takes off when it crosses some threshold where a majority of people find it appealing and easy to use.

Understanding this, and working on how to make whatever technology you are currently involved with convenient and easy to use, is lesson #1 for any engineer.

[c4757p]

I don't think we are really arguing different positions. I quite agree that an iPhone is a PDA.

Yeah, that's why I'm kind of confused! 

What I'm really trying to say is that technology takes off when it crosses some threshold where a majority of people find it appealing and easy to use.

No argument from me there, either.

We have been arguing precisely the same points, but focusing on opposite sides of them. Yay us! 

[NiHaoMike]

Technology of what? PC CPUs? Current direction is GPU integration (APU)
GPU for symmetric multiprocessing is all the rage now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heterogeneous_computing

$100 GPU breaks 1 Teraflop while $200 CPU struggles at 100 Gigaflops.

The trade off, of course, is much less flexibility. The scientists behind Folding@Home have created a system (points) to normalize CPU and GPU performance in scientific applications. My 3930k gets more PPD/$ (and PPD/W) than my GTX560Ti, even though the GTX560Ti was (at the time) near the peak of the performance/$ curve and the 3930k is way "over the hill".

Now if you're doing 3D rendering or Bitcoins, the GPU would (obviously) win. But for Bitcoins, FPGAs (and later on, ASICs) will beat both CPUs and GPUs. It all depends on your application. (Guess why Tiffany Yep has a 2700k, two GTX580s, *and* some Xilinx FPGAs in her DSP experimental setup...)

[Rick Law]

I personally like the term "PDA". Because really, my Android phone is just a faster Palm Pilot. I was always amazed that we all thought it was something new.

No. It really isn't. Could a Palm Pilot wirelessly connect to the Internet both indoors and while out shopping? Take digital photos? HD video? Act as a GPS? Provide a moving map display with voice directions? Be a fully featured web browser? With a high res color display? Play games like Angry Birds and Cut the Rope? Be a speaker phone? Store and play 1000 hours of music at hi-fi quality? Store and play video and movies?

A newer Palm Pilot could connect to Wi-Fi, just like my smartphone. Cellular Internet access is just an extension of the fact that many had mobile service, it was bound to happen eventually. GPS? Yep. It wasn't integrated, but Wi-Fi wasn't integrated into laptops years ago and we didn't stop calling them laptops when it was added. Everything else is just a realization of "faster

Palm 7 has internet connection via cell wireless out of the box.  Those days, cell were slow and a bit expensive.  I think the Palm 7 cost about $600 and the cell service for it was $70-100/month.

Since Treo 650, I stop using "smart phones", I went back to mostly dumb phones.  I still use my Treo when I am out long (I like the complete phone book and Blackjack on it), but if I am out less than a single day, I grab my dumb phone.