Why Tesla cars are the BEST EVs and Tesla is the best car company

[hendorog]

So, battery day is over, no solid state battery. Small, incremental changes, pretty much on the curve that we were expecting.

Probably what you and I were expecting, but the build up in the media for this event has been truly deranged.

Yep very much a mis-read. Long way to go to implement all the small improvements they presented too.

[reubeno]

Any idea what this means, which is being reported in multiple news sources.

“Tesla’s new larger cylindrical cells will provide five times more energy, six times more power and 16% greater driving range, Musk said, adding that full production is about three years away.”

5x more energy and 6x more power but only 16% improvement in range? Eh? If capacity / energy density improved 5x then the range would be increased by the same factor or they’d use much smaller batteries to deliver the same capacity! 

[Daixiwen]

They are probably also 4 times bigger 

If you really found a means of increasing the energy density by 400% it's time to open a project on indiegogo

[DougSpindler]

So, battery day is over, no solid state battery. Small, incremental changes, pretty much on the curve that we were expecting.

Probably what you and I were expecting, but the build up in the media for this event has been truly deranged.

Could have all the hype been a way to keep the press focused on Tesla and away from Nikola’s “better” battery technology which tuned out to be a scam.  But looks like GM fell for it. 

[darkstar49]

Sorry to say, seen from Europe, this looks like a lot of fuss for a company that barely has above 1% market share...

And while the name "Tesla" migh convey its part of the 'American Dream', things are a lot more 'nuanced' in Europe...

- the price tag of (nice) EVs will remain at a level that is out-of-range for a large portion of those needing a car
- highway speed limits are NOT 55/60mph, and most people exceed the limits anyway, so the range figures are miles away from reality, and thus not practical for many people
- Tesla is still far from the build/material quality of Audi, Mercedes & Co, and people spending around 100K on a car just don't look for technology only
- got no figures, but with around 2-3% EVs, many people complain about the availability of (super)chargers, so how will this go with 20- or even 50% EVs ? how long will it take to expand the infrastructure, will the technology still be the most efficient one when that will have happened, etc...?
- Many countries in Europe are pushing hard towards collective transportation (and even forbid access to large portions of cities to individual cars) , and tend to discourage people to buy individual cars... many people are NOT willing to spend so much money, while so many uncertainties remain...
- EVs currently use electricity produced for 80% by nuclear and/or gas plants
- ...

While I agree that what Tesla has accomplished so far is remarkable, there are many, many open questions... and I don't see Tesla's future as bright as Elon wants it to be...

[Gyro]

He seems to be the only guy capable of announcing a bright future and wiping $50bn of his company's value at the same time!:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54244612

[tszaboo]

So, battery day is over, no solid state battery. Small, incremental changes, pretty much on the curve that we were expecting.

Probably what you and I were expecting, but the build up in the media for this event has been truly deranged.

Could have all the hype been a way to keep the press focused on Tesla and away from Nikola’s “better” battery technology which tuned out to be a scam.  But looks like GM fell for it.

At this point, I'm quite certain, I could sell to GM the Brooklyn bridge.

He seems to be the only guy capable of announcing a bright future and wiping $50bn of his company's value at the same time!:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54244612

The P/E ratio of Tesla is over 1000. The average for automotive industry is 15. Maybe Tesla is overvalued and over hyped.

- the price tag of (nice) EVs will remain at a level that is out-of-range for a large portion of those needing a car

The average sales price for a new car was 29000 EUR in 2018 in the EU28 countries. The ID3 is 36000 EUR, and you get subsidy in many countries.  With this in mind, I would say an EV is right now could target 30-50% of car sales here.

And Mercedes just released their solid state battery:
https://insideevs.com/news/444449/mercedes-benz-ecitaro-g-solid-state-battery/
Yes it is a bus. I guess it is easier to make a big box of batteries and replace an existing box of batteries, than integrating it into a production car. That take time. But the point is, it is out of the lab. 25% higher energy density than NMC, longer life.

[coppice]

Any idea what this means, which is being reported in multiple news sources.

“Tesla’s new larger cylindrical cells will provide five times more energy, six times more power and 16% greater driving range, Musk said, adding that full production is about three years away.”

5x more energy and 6x more power but only 16% improvement in range? Eh? If capacity / energy density improved 5x then the range would be increased by the same factor or they’d use much smaller batteries to deliver the same capacity! 

They do say larger cylindrical cells. I expect this means each cell is about 5x(1-0.16) times as big, with a bit lower internal resistance so it can put out 6 times the power. In the same space they will get about 16% more range.

[f4eru]

- the price tag of (nice) EVs will remain at a level that is out-of-range for a large portion of those needing a car

Yes, people forget to calculate TCO. That's a big mistake. Also, those cars will be available on the used market in 1-2 years for people with tight budget.

- highway speed limits are NOT 55/60mph, and most people exceed the limits anyway, so the range figures are miles away from reality, and thus not practical for many people

Does not matter. Range issues have been resolved.

- Tesla is still far from the build/material quality of Audi, Mercedes & Co, and people spending around 100K on a car just don't look for technology only

100k  what? A Model 3 costs 40k today in Europe, cheaper than a VW Passat with the same options.
Next year, the model3 prices are expected to be reduced, once production starts in Europe, and there will be no more import and transport costs. I therefore expect a model 3 at a price under 35 000 euro next summer.

- got no figures, but with around 2-3% EVs, many people complain about the availability of (super)chargers, so how will this go with 20- or even 50% EVs ? how long will it take to expand the infrastructure, will the technology still be the most efficient one when that will have happened, etc...?

I got figures. Germany is now at 6,5% BEV and growing. https://www.cleanthinking.de/elektroauto-verkaufszahlen-august-umweltbonus-beschleunigt-verkaeufe/ VW just released the ID.3, and sells 10 000 of those in September.
France has 5% BEV now, and strangely, 15% hybrid : https://www.20minutes.fr/economie/auto/2802743-20200618-automobile-ventes-voitures-electriques-hybrides-envolent-mois-juin
Norway is at 60% BEV.
Charging infrastructure is good in Germany, and is growing together with the cars. Other countries are following slowly.
Outdated single "triple charger" stations get replaced by huge charging parks with 20-100 CCS stalls, like this one: https://youtu.be/0hpTBz-uW7U?t=413

- Many countries in Europe are pushing hard towards collective transportation (and even forbid access to large portions of cities to individual cars) , and tend to discourage people to buy individual cars... many people are NOT willing to spend so much money, while so many uncertainties remain...

Wrong. They close cities to older ICE cars. Newer will get on the list soon.

- EVs currently use electricity produced for 80% by nuclear and/or gas plants

Totally wrong. 46% renewable in Germany, and growing each year.
https://strom-report.de/strom/

[ahbushnell]

Any idea what this means, which is being reported in multiple news sources.

“Tesla’s new larger cylindrical cells will provide five times more energy, six times more power and 16% greater driving range, Musk said, adding that full production is about three years away.”

5x more energy and 6x more power but only 16% improvement in range? Eh? If capacity / energy density improved 5x then the range would be increased by the same factor or they’d use much smaller batteries to deliver the same capacity! 

Sounds like the energy density increased 16%.  It stores 5 times the energy because the volume is bigger. 

[darkstar49]

- the price tag of (nice) EVs will remain at a level that is out-of-range for a large portion of those needing a car

Yes, people forget to calculate TCO. That's a big mistake. Also, those cars will be available on the used market in 1-2 years for people with tight budget.

- highway speed limits are NOT 55/60mph, and most people exceed the limits anyway, so the range figures are miles away from reality, and thus not practical for many people

Does not matter. Range issues have been resolved.

- Tesla is still far from the build/material quality of Audi, Mercedes & Co, and people spending around 100K on a car just don't look for technology only

100k  what? A Model 3 costs 40k today in Europe, cheaper than a VW Passat with the same options.
Next year, the model3 prices are expected to be reduced, once production starts in Europe, and there will be no more import and transport costs. I therefore expect a model 3 at a price under 35 000 euro next summer.

- got no figures, but with around 2-3% EVs, many people complain about the availability of (super)chargers, so how will this go with 20- or even 50% EVs ? how long will it take to expand the infrastructure, will the technology still be the most efficient one when that will have happened, etc...?

I got figures. Germany is now at 6,5% BEV and growing. https://www.cleanthinking.de/elektroauto-verkaufszahlen-august-umweltbonus-beschleunigt-verkaeufe/ VW just released the ID.3, and sells 10 000 of those in September.
France has 5% BEV now, and strangely, 15% hybrid : https://www.20minutes.fr/economie/auto/2802743-20200618-automobile-ventes-voitures-electriques-hybrides-envolent-mois-juin
Norway is at 60% BEV.
Charging infrastructure is good in Germany, and is growing together with the cars. Other countries are following slowly.
Outdated single "triple charger" stations get replaced by huge charging parks with 20-100 CCS stalls, like this one: https://youtu.be/0hpTBz-uW7U?t=413

- Many countries in Europe are pushing hard towards collective transportation (and even forbid access to large portions of cities to individual cars) , and tend to discourage people to buy individual cars... many people are NOT willing to spend so much money, while so many uncertainties remain...

Wrong. They close cities to older ICE cars. Newer will get on the list soon.

- EVs currently use electricity produced for 80% by nuclear and/or gas plants

Totally wrong. 46% renewable in Germany, and growing each year.
https://strom-report.de/strom/

sorry, your figures are vaporware... 

Yes, a model S costs 100K, just like the X (even more !), not all Tesla's are cheap !!

Yes, you're ignoring that we'll live on with a used cars market for decades, with many, many people that will NOT spend 30 or 40k on a car, especially when this becomes less interesting from a fiscal perspective, in some countries, nearly 50% of new cars are company cars, and companies will buy far less cars in the years to come, as this will get more and more taxed

No, whatever you pretend, many cities in Europe are pushing cars out of their centers, whatever you pretend (been in The Netherlands ). Just need to check how much place has been taken from car lanes for bicycles these last month, and this will go on !!!

No, Germany is NOT all of Europe, and the average (in Europe) 'clean' electricity is not at 40 to 50% !!

No, the range issue has NOT been solved, this is BS !!! I have enough colleagues driving the 'long range' model S, with their stories when they have to cross Europe... no thanks, I'll keep mine for the time being !!!

etc...

My view is that you present a totally biased view on the current situation... again, don't know where you live, but the average in Europe is NOT as you pretend it is... and the technology may have RADICALLY changed by the time EVs would be ready for 'everyone'...  with 5kg of hydrogen, you've got roughly the same range as with the 600kg battery pack of the S, I don't know whether driving 600kg (or more ?) of batteries around is the way to go...   I'm just saying those who claim loud that EVs are the only possible future, are simply lying... maybe in 20 years, but no one knows what it's gonna look like in 20 years...

[maginnovision]

Just to clarify the new battery is 5.5x the volume of the current.

[ahbushnell]

Just to clarify the new battery is 5.5x the volume of the current.

The other factor is packing density.  I would guess larger batteries would have a better packing factor.  But that's a guess. 

[DougSpindler]

In the Sandy Munro video about batteries he was talking about cooling.  The packing of a cylindrical battery provides a lot of cooling.

[coppice]

In the Sandy Munro video about batteries he was talking about cooling.  The packing of a cylindrical battery provides a lot of cooling.

They seem to refer to the new batteries as cylindrical. Fat cylinders don't pack as well as thin cylinders. The new cells might be a lot longer, rather than a lot fatter, but I doubt they are 5.5 times as long.

[wraper]

with 5kg of hydrogen, you've got roughly the same range as with the 600kg battery pack of the S, I don't know whether driving 600kg (or more ?) of batteries around is the way to go...   

5kg of crappygen as it currently stands. As it's currently produced, it's less ecological than simply driving on gasoline. Also fuel nor fuel cells, nor hydrogen tanks are weightless. Not to say fuel cells are very expensive to produce since they need around 50g of platinum and have poor life.

No, the range issue has NOT been solved, this is BS !!! I have enough colleagues driving the 'long range' model S, with their stories when they have to cross Europe... no thanks, I'll keep mine for the time being !!!

Try doing that on hydrogen.

[ahbushnell]

In the Sandy Munro video about batteries he was talking about cooling.  The packing of a cylindrical battery provides a lot of cooling.

They seem to refer to the new batteries as cylindrical. Fat cylinders don't pack as well as thin cylinders. The new cells might be a lot longer, rather than a lot fatter, but I doubt they are 5.5 times as long.

It's fatter

[wraper]

4680 cell is much thicker an a little bit longer than 2170. The thing is that due to much lower internal resistance they can make it much thicker and charge faster. And with larger diameter, energy density increases. BTW that 16% energy density increase is on the form factor alone, there are other things as well.
Not to say the most impressing advancements are on it's manufacturing technology which allows to streamline production to some bizarre extent. Among them 10x smaller factory footprint for the same production capacity.

[wraper]

[sandalcandal]

Incase people missed it, some pretty in depth discussion of Battery Day announcements with Sandy Munroe, Bob Galyen (Battery Technology Advisor) and John McElroy (Automotive Industry Journalist/Expert). Easily more combined experience there than anybody here has been alive.

[DougSpindler]

Do the figures presented here seem accurate?

[ahbushnell]

Incase people missed it, some pretty in depth discussion of Battery Day announcements with Sandy Munroe, Bob Galyen (Battery Technology Advisor) and John McElroy (Automotive Industry Journalist/Expert). Easily more combined experience there than anybody here has been alive.

Very interesting. 

[DougSpindler]

That video is well worth watching.  What Elon and his team of engineers have done and are doing is incredible. As much as I was not a fan of Elon, you sure need to give him the respect he deserves.  He truly is the Edison, Tesla and Ford of our generation.

[tszaboo]

Incase people missed it, some pretty in depth discussion of Battery Day announcements with Sandy Munroe, Bob Galyen (Battery Technology Advisor) and John McElroy (Automotive Industry Journalist/Expert). Easily more combined experience there than anybody here has been alive.

These are the same "experts" that said Tesla is going to introduce a solid state battery?
And the ones, that claim that the Model 3 gained 10% range with a bunch of hose pipes?

OK < I think it is safe to skip the video.

[sandalcandal]

Incase people missed it, some pretty in depth discussion of Battery Day announcements with Sandy Munroe, Bob Galyen (Battery Technology Advisor) and John McElroy (Automotive Industry Journalist/Expert). Easily more combined experience there than anybody here has been alive.

These are the same "experts" that said Tesla is going to introduce a solid state battery?
And the ones, that claim that the Model 3 gained 10% range with a bunch of hose pipes?

OK < I think it is safe to skip the video.

No idea where you saw that stuff or what you're talking about with hose pipes. Closest I've seen is claims originating from Elon Musk himself about the heat pump system in the model Y https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/03/teslas-octovalve-enabled-a-staggering-10-increase-in-range-for-the-model-y/