When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[mtdoc]

1) I'm shocked that some here actually think the graphic posted my Nandblog or the one I posted are actually meant to suggest that such single (or multiple in the graphic I posted) very large PV arrays would need to be built.  They are graphic representations meant to demonstrate the very small amount of surface area needed to generate enough electricity with PV to satisfy society's need.

2) The reality is that multiple smaller PV plants would be built that in sum would equal the necessary surface area.

3) Contrary to what FFD and others here suggest, research shows that large PV installations cause localized warming, not cooling.  AKA the "heat island effect".   

4) There is no free lunch. There of course will be some localized negative effects of large solar PV installations.  But any intelligent, mature human being will realize that as with all things you must evaluate benefits versus risks.

Does anyone here seriously think that the potential adverse effects from the heat island effect of solar PV installations could be worse than the downsides of other options for electricity generation?  Where is this magic source of electricity generation that has no downsides?

[coppice]

1) I'm shocked that some here actually think the graphic posted my Nandblog or the one I posted are actually meant to suggest that such single (or multiple in the graphic I posted) very large PV arrays would need to be built.  They are graphic representations meant to demonstrate the very small amount of surface area needed to generate enough electricity with PV to satisfy society's need.

Why are you shocked? Concentrating a massive amount of generation in a relatively small area of the Sahara Desert has been proposed multiple times since the solar panel industry first got into gear. Some people have been very serious about it. Others have been highly sceptical about the politics, the transmission losses, and the potential changes to the local environment.

[nctnico]

The density of power removal can be made low as you point out.  The density at the receiving end is also low.  But the fact remains, you are moving hundreds of gigawatts from one continent to another.  We have always discovered the impact of large scale engineering efforts after the fact because they are not obvious.  Who knew that trading horse for something else could be hard on the earth, or that killing the pests in our houses with DDT would kill birds that didn't even eat bugs.

Well doing nothing is usually worse. In the end humanity is always chasing its own tail (cause and effect) but if the end result is better than it was it is a win. DDT for example did improve the quality of life for many.

[ahbushnell]

Since at least one person here seems unable to grasp the concept that utilizing only a small portion of the solar insolation falling in the Earth’s surface could produce all the worlds electricity needs (even assuming only 8% efficient PV!) here’s a physicist doing a good job explaining the math in a way that even the technically challenged should be able to understand.

The map below gives another graphic presentation. The black dots represent the surface area needed. An no, FFD, it does not mean darkness or cold temperatures at those locales 

The problem is getting it to where it's needed and when it's needed.  There is a big battery problem. 

[mtdoc]

The problem is getting it to where it's needed and when it's needed.  There is a big battery problem.

Yep.  Very true.  That's why I think small distributed systems, PV or otherwise is the way to go. And I mean very small and very distributed - town/village level. Sure in areas where there is less solar insolation - more PV would be needed (or other, complimentary means of generation hydro, wind, etc).  Since relatively little land area is needed for PV and PV is cheap -it's not difficult to do. It just takes political will.  Of course in the end we will have to use less energy per capita overall - no doubt about that.

Smaller ,distributed power generation and lower energy consumption will also provide more resilience. Unlike our current fragile electricity grid, it would be Antifragile.

Unfortunately, I doubt there will ever be the political will to do these things - more likely we'll continue on the road to catabolic collapse...

[coppice]

The problem is getting it to where it's needed and when it's needed.  There is a big battery problem.

If you can deal with the getting it where you want it issue, the battery problem mostly evaporates. Generation plant spread around the world's deserts would certainly defeat the darkness issue, and it seems like it ought to be possible to beat bad weather issues, too. Then you are left with issues of redundancy. They might be tough to deal with. 

[ahbushnell]

The problem is getting it to where it's needed and when it's needed.  There is a big battery problem.

If you can deal with the getting it where you want it issue, the battery problem mostly evaporates. Generation plant spread around the world's deserts would certainly defeat the darkness issue, and it seems like it ought to be possible to beat bad weather issues, too. Then you are left with issues of redundancy. They might be tough to deal with. 

So you plan to run power lines across oceans and power North America?

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[coppice]

The problem is getting it to where it's needed and when it's needed.  There is a big battery problem.

If you can deal with the getting it where you want it issue, the battery problem mostly evaporates. Generation plant spread around the world's deserts would certainly defeat the darkness issue, and it seems like it ought to be possible to beat bad weather issues, too. Then you are left with issues of redundancy. They might be tough to deal with. 

So you plan to run power lines across oceans and power North America?

I just plan to sit back and pontificate. 

If you can transmit power from the black dots on the map to every centre of population in the world, the additional problems of transmitting power around the world, so the lit side is always supplying our needs, should be trivial. The question is whether you can build a practical transmission scheme for the scale and distances required. Seems like quite a challenge.

[DougSpindler]

The density of power removal can be made low as you point out.  The density at the receiving end is also low.  But the fact remains, you are moving hundreds of gigawatts from one continent to another.  We have always discovered the impact of large scale engineering efforts after the fact because they are not obvious.  Who knew that trading horse for something else could be hard on the earth, or that killing the pests in our houses with DDT would kill birds that didn't even eat bugs.

Well doing nothing is usually worse. In the end humanity is always chasing its own tail (cause and effect) but if the end result is better than it was it is a win. DDT for example did improve the quality of life for many.

Story of DDT is an interesting one.   Malaria is estimated to have killed half of the worlds’s population.  Thanks to DDT is was eliminated ob all continents with the exception of Africa/. Why was DDT not used to eliminate Milaria in Africa?  It wold have been but politics and environmentalism got in the way.  I suspect you have DDT to thank for being alive today.

Appears the debate of a large solar farm in Africa is just a modern day discussion of DDT, politics vs. environmentalism.

An issue no one has mentioned so for is how much aluminum, steel and concrete it would take to build such an array.  Estimates I have seen are on the order of it would take all of the aluminum and steel ever mined and all of the concreate ever poured since Roman times.  Forget the thechnology for a moment,we just don’t have the building materials for such a project/. And add to that for the amount of concreate needed for such a project would release billions of tons of CO2 into our atmosphere as the concreate cures.  Are we installing solar to slow climate change?  What you folks are talking about will accelerate it.

[nctnico]

The problem is getting it to where it's needed and when it's needed.  There is a big battery problem.

If you can deal with the getting it where you want it issue, the battery problem mostly evaporates. Generation plant spread around the world's deserts would certainly defeat the darkness issue, and it seems like it ought to be possible to beat bad weather issues, too. Then you are left with issues of redundancy. They might be tough to deal with. 

I think you are seriously under estimating the costs and losses of such an electricity grid. Current electricity grid are mostly designed for load sharing between nearby power plants. A good hint to you should be the fact that most power plants are spread across countries and near the largest portion of the load.

[nctnico]

More on topic of EVs. The accident from this thread https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-an-emc-problem-can-kill-people-and-a-company/ with an electric motor cycle -ish vehicle got me thinking about a serious failure mode of EVs which (AFAIK) is not being addressed by current regulations. The problem is that there is no way to disconnect the motor from the wheels in an EV. So when you get into a engine runaway situation (as might have happened in the accident I described in the thread I linked to) there is no way to stop the car. Engine runaway situations can happen to ICE cars (google diesel runaway for example) but in an ICE based car you can simply disengage the engine by pressing the clutch or by putting the gearbox in neutral. Sure the ICE engine will be toast after such an event but you are not driving down the road at insane speeds while being unable to stop the car.

[ahbushnell]

More on topic of EVs. The accident from this thread https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-an-emc-problem-can-kill-people-and-a-company/ with an electric motor cycle -ish vehicle got me thinking about a serious failure mode of EVs which (AFAIK) is not being addressed by current regulations. The problem is that there is no way to disconnect the motor from the wheels in an EV. So when you get into a engine runaway situation (as might have happened in the accident I described in the thread I linked to) there is no way to stop the car. Engine runaway situations can happen to ICE cars (google diesel runaway for example) but in an ICE based car you can simply disengage the engine by pressing the clutch or by putting the gearbox in neutral. Sure the ICE engine will be toast after such an event but you are not driving down the road at insane speeds while being unable to stop the car.

Disengage a contactor?

[nctnico]

More on topic of EVs. The accident from this thread https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-an-emc-problem-can-kill-people-and-a-company/ with an electric motor cycle -ish vehicle got me thinking about a serious failure mode of EVs which (AFAIK) is not being addressed by current regulations. The problem is that there is no way to disconnect the motor from the wheels in an EV. So when you get into a engine runaway situation (as might have happened in the accident I described in the thread I linked to) there is no way to stop the car. Engine runaway situations can happen to ICE cars (google diesel runaway for example) but in an ICE based car you can simply disengage the engine by pressing the clutch or by putting the gearbox in neutral. Sure the ICE engine will be toast after such an event but you are not driving down the road at insane speeds while being unable to stop the car.

Disengage a contactor?

Which one and according to which regulations will this be installed and tested for functioning properly / safely? High voltage DC contactors are expensive and bulky so car manufacturers are not going to install these if they don't have to.

The thing is that any ICE based vehicle has some way to disengage/shut down the engine even though there is no regulation to have it installed. It is inherent to the design. With EVs this seems not to be the case due to absence of any regulations on this matter.

[DougSpindler]

More on topic of EVs. The accident from this thread https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-an-emc-problem-can-kill-people-and-a-company/ with an electric motor cycle -ish vehicle got me thinking about a serious failure mode of EVs which (AFAIK) is not being addressed by current regulations. The problem is that there is no way to disconnect the motor from the wheels in an EV. So when you get into a engine runaway situation (as might have happened in the accident I described in the thread I linked to) there is no way to stop the car. Engine runaway situations can happen to ICE cars (google diesel runaway for example) but in an ICE based car you can simply disengage the engine by pressing the clutch or by putting the gearbox in neutral. Sure the ICE engine will be toast after such an event but you are not driving down the road at insane speeds while being unable to stop the car.

Disengage a contactor?

Police would like a disengage contactor.  Would put an end to police chases.

[coppice]

Disengage a contactor?

Which one and according to which regulations will this be installed and tested for functioning properly / safely? High voltage DC contactors are expensive and bulky so car manufacturors are not going to install these if they don't have to.

The thing is that any ICE based vehicle has some way to disengage/shut down the engine even though there is no regulation to have it installed. It is inherent to the design. With EVs this seems not to be the case due to absence of any regulations on this matter.

Accidents are far more common than runaway engines, and EV makers aren't taking accident related power disconnect issues very seriously. Teslas seem to have a couple of "hack through the cables here" points for firemen to disconnect the power in an emergency, but they don't seem to have taken them very seriously. The labelling isn't good, and there is weak information on the car about what the emergency services need to do with those disconnect points. The Prius has been around a long time, and I think is the most mature family of cars with high voltage high current systems on board. How well do they handle high voltage isolation in an emergency.

[DougSpindler]

Run away car syndrome applies to both ICEs and EVs

The accident you are describing is a repeat of the one that happened with Toyota.  Can’t remember if it was the driver or passenger but one was a California Highway patrol officer.  He was on the phone with Highway Patrol dispatch saying the car he was in was out of control.  The accelerator was stuck and there was nothing they could do.  They could not turn the car off as it was a push button car.  They gear shift leaver was locked in drive and could not be disengaged.  The brakes could not slow the car down.  The Highway patrol officer was telling the dispatcher everting they were tying to do to stop the car as the car just kept in accelerating.  I think the car finally got up to around 120 mph when they lost control of the car and the Highway patrol officer and the companion in the car drove off the road and were killed.

This incident lead to the Toyota recall about 10 year ago.  Remember Toyota said it was loose the floor mat that caused the accelerator pedal to get stuck.  But in reality wasn’t it faulty software?

Please correct any inaccuracies in my story.

[nctnico]

It seems odd to me the transmission could not be put into neutral but then again it may depend on how it is implemented. It would be interesting to know what Toyota fixed to avoid the situation where such an event leads the vehicle to become totally uncontrollable.

BTW an incident like this would be an excellent moment for an American to pull out the good old gun and shoot the engine. With some luck you puncture the oil pan or coolant system and get the engine to seize up due to lack of cooling. Bonus points for hitting the timing belt.

[ahbushnell]

It seems odd to me the transmission could not be put into neutral but then again it may depend on how it is implemented. It would be interesting to know what Toyota fixed to avoid the situation where such an event leads the vehicle to become totally uncontrollable.

BTW an incident like this would be an excellent moment for an American to pull out the good old gun and shoot the engine. With some luck you puncture the oil pan or coolant system and get the engine to seize up due to lack of cooling. Bonus points for hitting the timing belt.

Shoot the battery. 

[DougSpindler]

It seems odd to me the transmission could not be put into neutral but then again it may depend on how it is implemented. It would be interesting to know what Toyota fixed to avoid the situation where such an event leads the vehicle to become totally uncontrollable.

BTW an incident like this would be an excellent moment for an American to pull out the good old gun and shoot the engine. With some luck you puncture the oil pan or coolant system and get the engine to seize up due to lack of cooling. Bonus points for hitting the timing belt.

Toyota’s initial safety recall was to tell customers to remove the floor mats.  I think they latter had a software update.

I thought is ‘was strange too they shifter could not by moved to neutral.  But the Highway Patroll officers in the car on the phone said it could not be done before he died.  I really hope someone can provide more info.   

[DougSpindler]

Found this.  Not the full story....  but it’s something.
https://youtu.be/u53oRzkRIbY

[Bud]

It seems odd to me the transmission could not be put into neutral but then again it may depend on how it is implemented.

It is odd... I do not know about new cars but on earlier cars there was a opening in the gear stick compartment where you can insert a screwdriver and push to unlock the stuck gear stick. What else may make sense is shift  to the lowest gear and switch off the Overdrive button to reduce the car speed , and turn the air conditioner on to put additional load on the engine which also may help drop speed a bit more.

[CatalinaWOW]

What you could do, and what you will do in a panic situation are very different things.  And even the same person can react very differently in different exposures.  It is very hard to tell what might have been a real mechanical failure and what was some driver interaction.

As a young man, driving the old beater car that a young man can afford, I had the accelerator pedal come off while in freeway traffic.  I calmly reached down and put it together by feel while steering with the other hand and peering over the dashboard as well as I could.  Much later in life a toy got stuck under the accelerator and I couldn't force myself to take the risk of reaching down there with the attendant loss of awareness and control. 

People do silly things under panic.  My wife rescued a woman in a parking lot who became trapped in her car when the batteries on the remote on her keyring failed just after locking the doors on herself.  She was so panicky she didn't even think of the electric switches on the inside of the door or the mechanical switches in the same location.  She wasn't really that stupid, but the brain does funny things when it heads down a wrong initial logic path.

[DougSpindler]

What you could do, and what you will do in a panic situation are very different things.  And even the same person can react very differently in different exposures.  It is very hard to tell what might have been a real mechanical failure and what was some driver interaction.

As a young man, driving the old beater car that a young man can afford, I had the accelerator pedal come off while in freeway traffic.  I calmly reached down and put it together by feel while steering with the other hand and peering over the dashboard as well as I could.  Much later in life a toy got stuck under the accelerator and I couldn't force myself to take the risk of reaching down there with the attendant loss of awareness and control. 

People do silly things under panic.  My wife rescued a woman in a parking lot who became trapped in her car when the batteries on the remote on her keyring failed just after locking the doors on herself.  She was so panicky she didn't even think of the electric switches on the inside of the door or the mechanical switches in the same location.  She wasn't really that stupid, but the brain does funny things when it heads down a wrong initial logic path.

Exactly - Now imagine a stuck accelerator and the trying to do some of those maneuvers at 100 mph?

And how many time had people mixed up the accelerator pedal with the brake?  Or an older driver is backing out of a parking space and mows down a bunch of people after mistaking D for the letter R.

[free_electron]

Which one and according to which regulations will this be installed and tested for functioning properly / safely? High voltage DC contactors are expensive and bulky so car manufacturers are not going to install these if they don't have to.

You really need to look at some teardown video's and talk to people designing such cars ... instead of spouting FUD ...

There IS a HV contactor in the batteyr pack. It will be shot open under certain conditions. It is an explosive charge to guarantee the thing opening and potential arcs/sticky contacts being extinguished and remediated. It has its own redundant backup , even if the local 12 volt system fails and there is a catastrophic short on the high voltage bus and the pack is somehow damaged : the contactors chemical charge WILL still fire fromt he embedded supercap in the contactor.

Just like you have a mechanical clutch in a mechanical engine you have an 'enable' pin to the inverter driving the propulsion motor. set the enable to low ( by clicking the stalk on the steering wheel in neutral ) and the motor goes in coast. This is a hard-wired , not software controlled gating on the power mosfets. Even in case of a cut control wire the system ios designed to fail-safe. ( meaning motor switched to coast ).

I have the impression that you think that these newfangled electric cars are designed by a bunch of muppets ...

[nctnico]

Which one and according to which regulations will this be installed and tested for functioning properly / safely? High voltage DC contactors are expensive and bulky so car manufacturers are not going to install these if they don't have to.

This is a hard-wired , not software controlled gating on the power mosfets. Even in case of a cut control wire the system ios designed to fail-safe. ( meaning motor switched to coast ).

I have the impression that you think that these newfangled electric cars are designed by a bunch of muppets ...

Some appearantly are so I'm wondering which safety regulations apply to disengaging the motor in an EV.