I think the mass adoption of EVs will take a lot longer than may expect or wish for - unless there is more radical changes in the battery technology and/or cost than currently predicted.
I think that depends a lot of your jurisdiction. Here in Western Canada, the combination of cheap electricity (about £0.06/kWh) from hydro electric, and relatively (for north america) expensive gasoline (£0.88/l), it means that my EV energy consumption costs are about 1/8th of the same car with an internal combustion engine. FWIW I drive a VW eGolf. In jurisdictions with more expensive electricity, and cheaper gasoline, perhaps the numbers aren't quite so beneficial, but you'd be hard pressed to find any jurisdiction where they don't hold out.
I see about 17kWh/100km (consumption from the socket) on my VW eGolf @ C$0.093/kWh
*1 (my EVSE measures, so I know the real numbers)
The same car (VW Golf) in ICE consumes about 8.5l / 100k
*2 with typical gasoline prices @ C$1.49
Vancouver CanadaEV: C$1.58ICE: C$12.67In reality about 20-30% of my charging is done at free charging stations around town, so my direct costs are a little lower than that; but's lets assume worse case where I pay for every electron. The additional purchase price (about C$6k more vs the ICE version) will be paid off long before I get rid of the car, and the lower maintenance costs are just an added bonus that I haven't factored in.
If you ran the numbers in Southern California at 0.48/kWh and 3.95/gal (1.04/l) for fuel, the
numbers are still better for an EV, although that advantage is marginal if you only charge using peak electricity rates. Luckily PG&E have specific tiered rate plans for EV owners to help them minimize costs.
Southern CaliforniaEV: $8.16 (day charging @ 0.48
*3)
EV: $2.21 (overnight charging @ 0.13/kWh
*3)
ICE: $8.84 (@3.95)
ICE: $7.27 (@3.25)
Even in Europe, the numbers are such that an EV is well worth it, and assuming a smaller displacement VW Golf (@ 5.2l/100km or 54 ImpMPG) in the Netherlands @ 1.35/l , and electricity @ 0.22/kWh
*4NetherlandsEV: €3.74 (overnight rates would drop this slightly)
ICE: €7.02references:
*1 https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html*2 https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/oee/pdf/transportation/tools/fuelratings/2018%20Fuel%20Consumption%20Guide.pdf*3 https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV%20(Sch).pdf*4 numbers as provided by nctnico in eevblog forum
(edited to add lower end of California fuel prices)