When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[wraper]

Hmm, I now recalled a memory from my childhood. Sometime in late 90s I've seen a car burning nearby a place where I lived. No crash happened, it just started burning while driving.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

That's a bit off topic in an EVs' thread, wraper :-)

But if you insist, you'd have to keep posting many more vidjeos because for every Tesla there are what, one thousand ICEs? Ten thousand? 1e5? Don't you think?

[coppice]

Hmm, I now recalled a memory from my childhood. Sometime in late 90s I've seen a car burning nearby a place where I lived. No crash happened, it just started burning while driving.

A few decades ago years ago seeing a burned out car, that showed no signs of being in a crash, was not that rare an event. Perhaps designers are getting better at keeping fuel where it belongs.

[nctnico]

Hmm, I now recalled a memory from my childhood. Sometime in late 90s I've seen a car burning nearby a place where I lived. No crash happened, it just started burning while driving.

A few decades ago years ago seeing a burned out car, that showed no signs of being in a crash, was not that rare an event. Perhaps designers are getting better and keeping fuel where it belongs.

In car fires fuel doesn't play a major role. The fuel is kept safely below the rear passengers' seat. The most probable cause is a short circuit causing wires, grease and plastic (the interior) to catch fire.

[wraper]

That's a bit off topic in an EVs' thread, wraper :-)

But if you insist, you'd have to keep posting many more vidjeos because for every Tesla there are what, one thousand ICEs? Ten thousand? 1e5? Don't you think?

Because you imply as if electric cars are more prone to fires while they are not.

https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/Fire-statistics/Vehicle-fires/Highway-vehicle-fires
Some nice car fire statistics. 174 000 car fires in US in 2015 alone. I don't think there are 100 000 ICE cars per every Tesla for ICE cars be at least on par regarding fire safety.

[wraper]

That's a bit off topic in an EVs' thread, wraper :-)

BTW, could you please elaborate how much on topic by your standard is posting videos about diesel engines or progressive utopia?   

[Kjelt]

Our initial investigation shows that the cabin of the vehicle was totally unaffected by the fire due to our battery architecture, which is designed to protect the cabin in the very rare event that a battery fire occurs," the company noted in a statement.

What? Look at the video. They designed it so that the fire is blasting under the car doors so that the passengers can not leave the vehicle, insane! 

[wraper]

They designed it so that the fire is blasting under the car doors so that the passengers can not leave the vehicle, insane! 

I guess blasting fire in the ass or in your face as with ICE cars would be better. There is not so much fire that you couldn't get out of a car without receiving burns. Also this video was taken some time after there was no people inside.

[nctnico]

Note that these numbers are completely wrong for the Netherlands. The actual number of cars with a plug is around 130000 (1.4% of all vehicles) and there are around 22000 electric only vehicles registed according to the government statistics: https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2018/21/number-of-all-electric-cars-increasing-rapidly
Most plug-in hybrids aren't even used as an EV due to the non-existent range of 30km or so. These are only electric on paper and hence the Dutch government has stopped giving tax incentives on plug-in hybrids.

[Fungus]

EV news: Another Tesla catches fire spontaneously "out of the blue" in LA:

 

You know that in 17 gasoline cars go up in flames in the USA every hour, right? That's nearly one every three minutes. There was another one while you were reading this.

Pesky facts here: https://www.nfpa.org/Public-Education/By-topic/Property-type-and-vehicles/Vehicles

[Fungus]

This thread is now on my "ignore thread" list. George is either trolling or beyond help. I don't really care which.

For those of you who don't know how to do it, you can enable ignoring in your profile settings:

[f4eru]

based on U.S. automobile miles-per-fire statistics from the National Fire Protection Association, a driver is "5 times more likely to experience a fire in a conventional gasoline car than a Tesla."

Yeah. It's simply safer for fire also. Check.

In car fires fuel doesn't play a major role.  The most probable cause is a short circuit causing wires,

Nope. Wrong.
1) Fuel leaks
2) Electrical System Failures
3) Spilled Fluids
4) Overheating Engines
5) Overheating Catalytic Converters
6) Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Batteries
7) Arson
Car Crashes
9) Poor Maintenance
10) Design Flaws

https://auto.howstuffworks.com/car-driving-safety/accidents-hazardous-conditions/10-causes-of-car-fires10.htm
Those are insurer's statistics. Pretty real-life reliable

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

1.- If the proportion of EVs/ICEs were -say- 1:1000, obviously, whenever a car catched fire the probability of it being an ICE would be almost 1. (if both were as likely to burn in flames (who knows?))
2.- Note that "Electrical system failures" is #2 in that list.
3.- There are no old EVs on the streets, but there are millions of old ICEs. That isn't accounted for in the statistics. (apples vs oranges)
4.- An ICE, when in your garage, is turned off, ~ totally, but an EV very likely isn't, and has its power electronics running and a powerful, potentially dangerous, very big li-ion battery that's being recharged while you sleep.

[wraper]

If the proportion of EVs/ICEs were -say- 1:1000, obviously, when a car catches fire the probability of it being an ICE is almost 1. (if both were as likely to burn in flames (who knows?))

You have some weird understanding of statistics.

2.- Note that "Electrical system failures" is #2 in that list.

Electrical failures in ICE cars.

4.- An ICE, when in your garage, is turned off, totally, but an EV very likely isn't, and has its power electronics running and a powerful, potentially dangerous, very big li-ion battery that's being recharged while you sleep.

They are not not, and a plenty of fires happened with "turned off" ICE cars. You could see that in a video I already posted.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

So what's more likely to catch fire, a 12 volts tiny battery car that's totally off or a car with a hundreds of volts, kilowatts inverter/power supply that's plugged in pushing charge into a massive li-ion battery?

[wraper]

To this day only 15 Tesla fires are known (2013-2018). Except a few, they happened after very severe crashes. As on Feb 2018 total of 300,000 Tesla cars were produced. That means around 1 in 20 000 of them caught fire.
In 2015 there were 263 million cars in US. With 174k car fires the same year, it's 1 fire per 1500 cars annually. Please note that Tesla number is during all years they were produced, not annually.
So now lets think again about:

So what's more likely to catch fire, a 12 volts car that's totally off or a car with a hundreds of volts, kilowatts inverter/power supply pushing charge into a massive li-ion battery?

[JohnnyMalaria]

and has its power electronics running and a powerful, potentially dangerous, very big li-ion battery that's being recharged while you sleep.

And that's the EV (not hybrid) Achilles' heel. You should read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicle_fire_incidents

You have pulled out of the air that the ratio of EV to ICE cars is 1:1000. As a proponent of EVs you surely realize this ratio will change and, therefore, so will the relative incidence of Li-ion battery fires.

The number of ICE fires in the US in 2ppm. There are about 500,000 EVs in the US (less if that number includes hybrids). At the same probability you would expect only 1 EV vehicle of all the ones on the road in the US to have caught fire. The true number is obviously higher. Therefore from a probabilistic approach, EVs catch fire more than ICEs. Part of my point is that quoting statistics is prone to being bullshit.

(My beef with some EV proponents is that they clearly have no idea how much energy - usually of fossil fuel origin - goes into making a car from its raw materials. You'd need to drive a new EV for more than 250,000 miles to fully offset it. How many EV owners keep their cars that long?)

[wraper]

The number of ICE fires in the US in 2ppm.

The correct number is 667ppm of cars in US caught fire annually.

As a proponent of EVs you surely realize this ratio will change and, therefore, so will the relative incidence of Li-ion battery fires.

LOL 
You took the post of ICE advocate with some sort of BS statistics pulled out from thin air and made even more BS conclusions out of that.

[coppice]

Hmm, I now recalled a memory from my childhood. Sometime in late 90s I've seen a car burning nearby a place where I lived. No crash happened, it just started burning while driving.

A few decades ago years ago seeing a burned out car, that showed no signs of being in a crash, was not that rare an event. Perhaps designers are getting better and keeping fuel where it belongs.

In car fires fuel doesn't play a major role. The fuel is kept safely below the rear passengers' seat. The most probable cause is a short circuit causing wires, grease and plastic (the interior) to catch fire.

The main fuel tank is kept in a relatively secure position, but pipes and pumps and other plumbing do fail, leaking fuel onto hot components. I know of fires which started this way long ago.

[JohnnyMalaria]

The number of ICE fires in the US in 2ppm.

The correct number is 667ppm of cars in US caught fire annually.

As a proponent of EVs you surely realize this ratio will change and, therefore, so will the relative incidence of Li-ion battery fires.

LOL 
You took the post of ICE advocate with some sort of BS statistics pulled out from thin air and made even more BS conclusions out of that.

Um, hence what I said about stats.

I notice no comment about the energy it takes to make an EV. The pious Prius population don't seem to care about that. They care about shaming others and spout hand-wavy bullshit about how electricity is cleaner. Laugh at yourself, friend.

[nctnico]

Hmm, I now recalled a memory from my childhood. Sometime in late 90s I've seen a car burning nearby a place where I lived. No crash happened, it just started burning while driving.

A few decades ago years ago seeing a burned out car, that showed no signs of being in a crash, was not that rare an event. Perhaps designers are getting better and keeping fuel where it belongs.

In car fires fuel doesn't play a major role. The fuel is kept safely below the rear passengers' seat. The most probable cause is a short circuit causing wires, grease and plastic (the interior) to catch fire.

The main fuel tank is kept in a relatively secure position, but pipes and pumps and other plumbing do fail, leaking fuel onto hot components. I know of fires which started this way long ago.

That may be but that is only a problem when driving. When the car is parked the fuel system isn't pressurised. The battery however stays live and powers various electronics.

[wraper]

Um, hence what I said about stats.

Had you read actual stats I posted, it's obvious it's not in favor of ICE cars. Also had you read wiki page you linked to, you'd realize the same thing. And yeah, feelings are so much more important than real numbers  . Conclusion based on pulled out of ass calculations  .

I notice no comment about the energy it takes to make an EV. The pious Prius population don't seem to care about that. They care about shaming others and spout hand-wavy bullshit about how electricity is cleaner. Laugh at yourself, friend.

I didn't feel need to comment more about already so flawed post, but OK. https://www.quora.com/How-much-energy-is-required-to-build-an-electric-car

Table 8 concludes an EV requires 50 GJ and 3,250 CO2 to manufacture while a normal ICV requires 34 GJ and 2,000 kg of CO2.

You will spend 13.5 GJ per year if you commute using an EV and will produce 2,750 kg of CO2.
You will spend 21.3 GJ per year if you commute using an ICV and will produce 5,300 kg of CO2.

After 10 years (190,000 km):

EV:
50 GJ + (13.5 GJ x 10) = 185 GJ
3.25 + (2.75 x 10) = 30.75 tons of CO2

ICV:
34 GJ + (21.3 GJ x 10) = 247GJ
2 + (5.3 x 10) = 55 tons of CO2

Conclusion: manufacturing a car takes only a small portion of energy compared to what it will consume during its lifetime.

[nctnico]

The error in that article is that is assumes the ICE consumes 10l/100km. That is not realistic. Even worse: the numbers in the article don't add up at all!

[wraper]

The error in that article is that is assumes the ICE consumes 10l/100km. That is not realistic. If you want to compare apples with apples then you have to compare with a new, efficient ICE which does better than 5l/100km and reaches a 30% efficiency.

I don't see your 10l/100km figure anywhere. Also ICE car won't consume this low during city traffic while EVs are the most efficient at that. Not to say Americans usually don't buy small fuel efficient cars.

[Kjelt]

Most modern petrol cars do less than 6l/100km average split city/motorway.
Diesel even lower.