The Case Against TESLA

[EEVblog]

Tesla failures.  There solar shingles appear to be all hype and no power also.
https://youtu.be/k6GeHnMwl1c

Geeze, he's good.

[DougSpindler]

Tesla failures.  There solar shingles appear to be all hype and no power also.
https://youtu.be/k6GeHnMwl1c

Geeze, he's good.

He sure is.  He has many other vidoes wich are just as good.
In this one he talks about our audiction to hydrocarbons, C8 H18.


 

[Fungus]

Geeze, he's good.

Seems to me like a lot of cherry picking and over-emphasis on today's infrastucture, etc.

Widespread use of EVs will obviously require an overhaul of the entire power system, hopefully a better/greener system will be built.

Things won't look good short-term, no, so naysayers like him will have easy targets.

Long-term without them is much worse (IMHO).

[Kjelt]

True but his point is valid, batteries (kW/kg) and charging from dirty generated energy at this moment makes no sense. Generating clean energy has been a problem for the last decades just as the battery efficiency increase has not been what was promised/expected.
This really should be done before everybody is allowed (yes the correct word) to buy an EV or the western countries energy system would be worse than in Afrika.

[DougSpindler]

True but his point is valid, batteries (kW/kg) and charging from dirty generated energy at this moment makes no sense. Generating clean energy has been a problem for the last decades just as the battery efficiency increase has not been what was promised/expected.
This really should be done before everybody is allowed (yes the correct word) to buy an EV or the western countries energy system would be worse than in Afrika.

The other thing no one seems to talk about are the resources and money needed for wide spread solar and wind.  And we already know we can't depend on solar and wind.  Only "real" energy storage medium we have is water.

Here are some back of the envelope figures about solar and wind.  If solar and wind were to provide 33% of the worlds electrical needs it would take all the Aluminum ever mined, half of the iron ever mined and all the concreate poured in the last thousand years.
Here’s something else to think about.  Let’s say we could make solar panels which would convert nearly all the suns energy to electricity.  If we did that there would be no energy for plants to grow and we would be in the dark even at noon.  Think about it.

[james_s]

I don't think it matters. No need to prevent everyone from buying EVs because already not everyone is going to buy them, 10 years from now I expect the ICE to still be dominant while EVs will be a great fit for a portion of the population. If it gets to where the utilities are having trouble supplying the demand, the incentives will vanish and that will help to limit EV adoption. In areas where I live that have a lot of hydroelectric power with surplus capacity at night a certain number of EVs are ideal for leveling the demand since most people, at least the EV owners I know plug them in to charge each night when they get home.

[DougSpindler]

Elon Musk reminds me a lot of Nikola Tesla.  Early in both of their lives they made a lot of money.  Both were showmen and liked to make huge enormous claims. Both have had huge failures and huge successes.   Neither took a physics class or understood the laws of thermodynamics.
Not sure about Elon, but I know Tesla liked throwing huge opulent parties and had lots of women around.  (Is Elon single?  Tesla was.)
Nikola and Tesla (company) have laboratories where they are conducting research and announce they have made some incredible and unbelievable discoveries.  But they will only talk about it and won't show are reveal much about the discovery.

Both Nikola and Elon sure love taking people’s money with the promise of incredible improvements in technology.  Now, like with Tesla 100 years ago people are willing to Elon a lot of money with his flimsy claims.
Elon hasn’t said he’s discovered “Free Energy” but if I’m not mistaken Nikola did saying the universe had a frequency and if we taped into it we would have all of the energy we would ever need.  (I think Dark Matter and Dark Energy theories were news headlines at the time.)


Now here’s where it really gets interesting.  Both had a fascination with Mars.  Nikola late in life began telling people his ideas were coming from Martians.  He told investors Martians were communicating directly with him on one of the devices he created.  He said they were far more advances then we are, and they are willing to share their technology though Nikola with everyone on planet Earth.  If only he had more money he would share the Martian technology with the world.
I’m sill waiting to see if in a decade or so from now if Elon is going to tell us he’s been talking to Martians too.
Now as we know with Tesla when he died he owned a lot of people money.  And for all of you conspiracy theorists yes the FBI was ordered to seize all of Tesla’s inventions and papers by a civil court judge.  Tesla’s creditors were hoping there was something of value in all of his papers.  After many years of legal battles and credible scientist reviewing his papers they found Nikola was failing.  He kept running into the laws of thermodynamic and physics.  He kept believing he could find a way to break them.
The trial ended and the lawyer representing his estate kept the papers a storage in the basement of his New York apartment.  The layer died and the people cleaning out his apartment left all of his case files including Nikola’s notes on the street for garbage pick-up. 

Someone looking through the trash realized this were Tesla’s notes and took them home.  At the time no one was interested in Nikola’s documents expect the really crazy conspiracy theorists.  The guy could make any money so back into storage the documents went.  Until he died.   The people going through his positions realized there were Nikola’s documents and I think gave them to some who is trying to fund the Nikola Tesla Museum in (I think) New York.
I have been to the Nikola Tesla museum in Belgrade.  (Quite interesting.) 

It will be interesting to see how Elon’s life plays out?  Will he be a success or be the lore of conspiracy theorists?

Here’s the thing the population of the world has more than doubled in our life time and for maybe a few of us has tripled or quadrupled.  Our use of electricity continues to grow exponentially with only something like 10% using 80% of the electricity.
We don’t have a perfect solution.  Coal/hydrocarbons my have once been the “best” solution but not anymore.  Wind/solar, tidal hydro all of limitations.   This just leave nuclear.

We have enough nuclear fuel to supply power to the world for 500 years.  But we don’t like the long lived radioactive waste.  (Not sure what we are going to do with that.)

But NextGen Nuclear appear to be the answer.  ITER, NIF, Bill Gates and Paul Allen are all working on NextGen Nuclear.  A bit surprised Elon isn’t.  Maybe because he’s in it for the money.  There’s a lot of money to be made selling residential solar. 

I receive a quote for $40,000 to install solar on my house.   Out of the $40,000 best I can figure, $9,000 is for the panels and hardware.  $4,000 for the design and installation.  Permits are $200.  That leaves how much for profit?  That leaves over $26,000 in profit for Elon and friends.   
Don’t you wish you could make $26,000 off of each sale?

[wraper]

Elon Musk reminds me a lot of Nikola Tesla.  Early in both of their lives they made a lot of money.  Both were showmen and liked to make huge enormous claims. Both have had huge failures and huge successes.   Neither took a physics class or understood the laws of thermodynamics.

Elon has a bachelors degree in physics.

[DougSpindler]

This guy does an amazing job of putting things into perspective.

[bd139]

And an economics degree...

[DougSpindler]

Elon Musk reminds me a lot of Nikola Tesla.  Early in both of their lives they made a lot of money.  Both were showmen and liked to make huge enormous claims. Both have had huge failures and huge successes.   Neither took a physics class or understood the laws of thermodynamics.

Elon has a bachelors degree in physics.

Really?  I will stand corrected.  In a book written about him it says he left Australia for Canada when he was 17-18 only to find the relatives he was supposed to be staying with left for Australia on an extended vacation.  He had something like $500 to his name.  Guess I missed the part about him attending college.

I will assume he attended an accredited college and didn't just purchase his degree or receive and honorary degree.

Thanks for correcting me.

[wraper]

Really?  I will stand corrected.  In a book written about him it says he left Australia for Canada when he was 17-18 only to find the relatives he was supposed to be staying with left for Australia on an extended vacation.  He had something like $500 to his name.  Guess I missed the part about him attending college.

I will assume he attended an accredited college and didn't just purchase his degree or receive and honorary degree.

Thanks for correcting me.

He left South Africa  .

After two years at Queen's University, Musk transferred to the University of Pennsylvania. He took on two majors, but his time there wasn’t all work and no play. With a fellow student, he bought a 10-bedroom fraternity house, which they used as an ad hoc nightclub.

Musk graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Physics, as well as a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from the Wharton School. The two majors speak to the direction Musk’s career would take later, but it was physics that made the deepest impression on his thinking.

“(Physics is) a good framework for thinking,” he’d later say. “Boil things down to their fundamental truths and reason up from there.”

Musk was 24 years old when he moved to California to pursue a PhD in applied physics at Stanford University. With the internet exploding and Silicon Valley booming, Musk had entrepreneurial visions dancing in his head. He left the PhD program after just two days. (Related: Dropping out of School to Start a Business)



Read more: Elon Musk: Early Life and Education | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/university/elon-musk-biography/elon-musk-early-life-and-education.asp#ixzz5Ca5x0KFg

[Marco]

If solar ... were to provide 33% of the worlds electrical needs it would take all the Aluminum ever mined

Only if you built them as they are build now, pic related can be mounted with far less material.

Let’s say we could make solar panels which would convert nearly all the suns energy to electricity.  If we did that there would be no energy for plants to grow and we would be in the dark even at noon.  Think about it.

If we did that for the entire world we'd have enough energy to shift earth orbit and fix global warming.

Having done some really rough math for the amount of steel cable you need to store a TWh or so of energy with ocean gravity storage, it seems doable to me. Uses less steel than changing the US electricity generation to nuclear.

[DougSpindler]

If solar ... were to provide 33% of the worlds electrical needs it would take all the Aluminum ever mined

Only if you built them as they are build now, pic related can be mounted with far less material.

Let’s say we could make solar panels which would convert nearly all the suns energy to electricity.  If we did that there would be no energy for plants to grow and we would be in the dark even at noon.  Think about it.

If we did that for the entire world we'd have enough energy to shift earth orbit and fix global warming.

Having done some really rough math for the amount of steel cable you need to store a TWh or so of energy with ocean gravity storage, it seems doable to me. Uses less steel than changing the US electricity generation to nuclear.

So wher’s the development?  And where are the products?

Let me in part answer that.  I worked at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory where they developed a new type of solar panel which would capture additional wave lengths of light and thus produce more electricity for a much lower cost.

That was about 10 years ago.  Where these inexpensive 500 watt $200 panels?  Well we could have them.    But’s it’s the Osborne Efect.  Company’s have sent millions to create factories to produce the current 300 watt solar panels.  Can’t exactly have new solar panel company go into business and produce pannels at lower price before the existing factories are paid off.

[DougSpindler]

If solar ... were to provide 33% of the worlds electrical needs it would take all the Aluminum ever mined

Only if you built them as they are build now, pic related can be mounted with far less material.

Let’s say we could make solar panels which would convert nearly all the suns energy to electricity.  If we did that there would be no energy for plants to grow and we would be in the dark even at noon.  Think about it.

If we did that for the entire world we'd have enough energy to shift earth orbit and fix global warming.

Having done some really rough math for the amount of steel cable you need to store a TWh or so of energy with ocean gravity storage, it seems doable to me. Uses less steel than changing the US electricity generation to nuclear.

[coppice]

Let me in part answer that.  I worked at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory where they developed a new type of solar panel which would capture additional wave lengths of light and thus produce more electricity for a much lower cost.

That was about 10 years ago.  Where these inexpensive 500 watt $200 panels?  Well we could have them.    But’s it’s the Osborne Efect.  Company’s have sent millions to create factories to produce the current 300 watt solar panels.  Can’t exactly have new solar panel company go into business and produce pannels at lower price before the existing factories are paid off.

Several groups have developed multi-wavelength solar panels, but the issue has so far been than the cost is actually too high to make them attractive, even though they might halve the required area. How do you arrive at the idea the cost would be lower? They are, after all, considerably more complex to make.

[wraper]

Let’s say we could make solar panels which would convert nearly all the suns energy to electricity.  If we did that there would be no energy for plants to grow and we would be in the dark even at noon.  Think about it.

I don't get the idea behind this. You are not supposed to cover all of the earth with solar panels and it's not like current panels are transparent to allow non converted light coming through them. Even with current efficiency of solar panels, you need to cover only relatively small area to provide electricity for a whole mankind.

[Marco]

So wher’s the development?  And where are the products?

Same place commercially viable breeder reactors are.

That was about 10 years ago.  Where these inexpensive 500 watt $200 panels?  Well we could have them.    But’s it’s the Osborne Efect.  Company’s have sent millions to create factories to produce the current 300 watt solar panels.  Can’t exactly have new solar panel company go into business and produce pannels at lower price before the existing factories are paid off.

Patents run out and people leak trade secrets like a sieve ... after 20 years someone will build it.

[mtdoc]

That was about 10 years ago.  Where these inexpensive 500 watt $200 panels?  Well we could have them.    But’s it’s the Osborne Efect.  Company’s have sent millions to create factories to produce the current 300 watt solar panels.  Can’t exactly have new solar panel company go into business and produce pannels at lower price before the existing factories are paid off.

Solar panels are cheap and have been for several years now. They are a commodity product now with several (mostly Chinese) manufacturers all producing high quality product with approximately the same efficiency and similar 25 year warranties.  300 (+/- 20) watt panels are popular because they are not too large for one person to handle.

Last year I purchased a pallet of 27,  285 watt Grade A panels for 24 cents/ watt (i.e $68.40 per panel).  Prices go up and down but you can currently get panels for about 40 cents/watt.  See HERE

[NiHaoMike]

I don't think it matters. No need to prevent everyone from buying EVs because already not everyone is going to buy them, 10 years from now I expect the ICE to still be dominant while EVs will be a great fit for a portion of the population. If it gets to where the utilities are having trouble supplying the demand, the incentives will vanish and that will help to limit EV adoption. In areas where I live that have a lot of hydroelectric power with surplus capacity at night a certain number of EVs are ideal for leveling the demand since most people, at least the EV owners I know plug them in to charge each night when they get home.

I would expect (plug in) hybrids to become dominant and stay that way for a long time.

[DougSpindler]

Last year I purchased a pallet of 27,  285 watt Grade A panels for 24 cents/ watt (i.e $68.40 per panel).  Prices go up and down but you can currently get panels for about 40 cents/watt.  See HERE

Okay I don't get it. The 250 - 325 panels I've been seeing run about $300 - $350.  Or about 4 times what you purchased yours for.  How is it this company is selling panels so inexpensively?

[mtdoc]

Last year I purchased a pallet of 27,  285 watt Grade A panels for 24 cents/ watt (i.e $68.40 per panel).  Prices go up and down but you can currently get panels for about 40 cents/watt.  See HERE

Okay I don't get it. The 250 - 325 panels I've been seeing run about $300 - $350.  Or about 4 times what you purchased yours for.  How is it this company is selling panels so inexpensively?

Like most things, you need to know were professionals shop to avoid over paying. It’s like the differnce between buying electronic components at RadioShack (RIP) versus Digikey.

[CatalinaWOW]

This thread has several times shown disdain for solar/electric/renewable technology with comments that none of these things are new, and that they were dropped before for good reason.  And therefore should remain off the table.

The ideas are not new, but new developments definitely change the equation.  A simple example shows how.  Battery powered lights for closets and other areas which are not mains wired have been around for my entire life, and probably much longer.  I would guess they were first introduced in the 1920s or 1930s.  And have never made a market splash because the low light output and high battery consumption made them uninteresting to all but the most motivated purchasers.  But with the advent of high efficiency LEDs and with a modest contribution from improved battery technology (not Lithium, just long life alkali cells) these things have actually become useful.  They still won't eliminate mains wiring, but they make real sense in low usage situations like closets and remote corners of storage areas and shops.  The batteries have changed with higher capacity and much lower self discharge rates, and the LEDs cut power consumption by at least an order of magnitude. 

The biggest problems these things have now is the marketing hangover from the horrible performance of older versions of the product.  Which is true about at least some of the technologies discussed in this thread.

[DougSpindler]

This thread has several times shown disdain for solar/electric/renewable technology with comments that none of these things are new, and that they were dropped before for good reason.  And therefore should remain off the table.

The ideas are not new, but new developments definitely change the equation.  A simple example shows how.  Battery powered lights for closets and other areas which are not mains wired have been around for my entire life, and probably much longer.  I would guess they were first introduced in the 1920s or 1930s.  And have never made a market splash because the low light output and high battery consumption made them uninteresting to all but the most motivated purchasers.  But with the advent of high efficiency LEDs and with a modest contribution from improved battery technology (not Lithium, just long life alkali cells) these things have actually become useful.  They still won't eliminate mains wiring, but they make real sense in low usage situations like closets and remote corners of storage areas and shops.  The batteries have changed with higher capacity and much lower self discharge rates, and the LEDs cut power consumption by at least an order of magnitude. 

The biggest problems these things have now is the marketing hangover from the horrible performance of older versions of the product.  Which is true about at least some of the technologies discussed in this thread.

How true.  But new technology sometimes fails too.  I still have an Apple Newton someplace.  And aren’t we about now getting th features Apple was offering us with the Newton?

It’s hard to say what’s going to be a filuare and what’s going to be successful with consumers.  I know one product that lot’s of people have been trying to sell people on for decades has been “free energy “ machines.  One would think by now consumers would know these are scams, but people insist like Elon Musk they can break the laws of physics and get away with it and make a lot of money as they do so.

[HackedFridgeMagnet]

Tesla failures.  There solar shingles appear to be all hype and no power also.
https://youtu.be/k6GeHnMwl1c

Geeze, he's good.

Only 2 minutes in and it seems to me to be a subjective bit of click-bait dressed up as logic. (cant comment on next 18 mins)
He tries to prove his point about Tesla being a cult using this line of nonsense reasoning.  ( correct me if I misquoted something.

his definitions.

Cult: a system of religious veneration and devotion directed toward a particular figure or object.

( no source given)

Religion:  a system of faith or worship so it's broader than that.

  (broader than a cult) (not sure where this came from)

Faith: pretending to know something you don't know.

  (by an expert on faith minus the mumbo jumbo, minus the weasel words.)


Then he leaps into

Incorporating these two definitions a cult becomes, a group of people whose enthusiastic devotion to something is built on a foundation on them pretending to know something that they don't know.

I really cant see how he makes that leap? I don't see that as a logical deduction.


Maybe the old compare and contrast would be a better way of looking at it.

Tesla is a car/battery company, cults are systems of religious veneration and devotion directed toward a particular figure or object
Tesla makes things, Cults worship things.
Tesla uses cutting edge science to make products and money, cults do not
Tesla gets money from the government, cults do not.

Tesla and cults both have charismatic leaders.
Tesla and cults both have at least some irrational adherents.


feel free to add to the differences and similarities.