Author Topic: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing  (Read 5946 times)

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Online nctnico

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #75 on: July 23, 2024, 04:49:11 pm »
I also agree that storage for half a year is seldom required.  But the storage required can't be waved away as "far less than half a year".  There is either an incredible leap in technology required or very sizeable investments in currently available technologies.
Storage can also be defined as season dependant imports. But there is a cost optimum to be had between storing so energy can bought when the price is low versus paying a premium when buying energy on demand. In Europe countries typically buy natural gas all through the summer for use in the winter so demand, production & prices stay more or less constant.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2024, 04:50:42 pm by nctnico »
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Offline zilp

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #76 on: July 23, 2024, 04:57:01 pm »
Yes mountaintops are windy.  But are also hard to get to, farther from points of use and generally have either no roads, or roads not suitable for transport of large objects like windmill components.  None of these are showstoppers, but they all translate into very significant costs.

In other words: Your claim that where you live has no meaningful wind resource at any time of the year was bullshit.

Or, if you were just being hyper literal: Yeah, sure, your house doesn't have any meaningful wind resource. But your house also doesn't have any meaningful coal, oil, gas, or nuclear resource, so what exactly was your point?

Exploiting energy resources isn't free, and getting energy into a valley surounded by mountains isn't free either. Whether the cost is "significant" is completely uninteresting. The only thing that would be interesting would be if you could show that it is significantly more expensive than some alternative.

I also agree that storage for half a year is seldom required.  But the storage required can't be waved away as "far less than half a year".  There is either an incredible leap in technology required or very sizeable investments in currently available technologies.

I haven't waved away anything. You claimed that huge amounts of seasonal storage were needed. And seasonal storage means storage that is cycled yearly, i.e., storage for the half of the year where renewable generation is lacking. For Germany, the last study I read on the topic came to the conclusion that we'd need about two weeks of demand in storage capacity to maintain grid reliability. While that is a lot of energy, it is a long way from "a few months" or half a year. And also, it doesn't even becessarily need construction of new storage facilities, because we do already have huge caverns that are currently used for storing natural gas, which can be repurposed for hydrogen and/or synthetic methane. What is needed are electrolysis/synthesis plants.

Does that require "sizeable investments"? Maybe? Depends on what you mean by "sizeable", I guess?

But ... is there any solution that doesn't require sizeable investments, that you mention this?
 

Online CatalinaWOW

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #77 on: July 23, 2024, 06:55:12 pm »
Okay.  I will agree that neither of our arguments were meaningful until numbers are applied.  I have done rough costing for my situation, based on me personally solving my problems.  I can dig up the numbers but they aren't really relevant to the real question which is community wide or society wide implementations.  I will assert that scale changes don't make the costs go away, though they can reduce the costs amortized over the population. The amount of reduction isn't easy to predict.  Again everything is local.

I am not one of those Luddites emotionally tied to fossil sources.  I have installed solar at my home.  I am adding storage (for reliability reasons, bridging grid failures, not solar availability).  Those costs and experiences give me a gut response to what larger scale and different purpose applications will run into and I apologize for being more negative than some would like.   Even once numbers are applied any reader will have to approach the results with caution.  Anyone who has done this kind of work knows how easy it is for both proponents and opponents to "put a thumb on the scale"
 

Offline Siwastaja

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #78 on: July 24, 2024, 07:13:29 am »
For Germany, the last study I read on the topic came to the conclusion that we'd need about two weeks of demand in storage capacity to maintain grid reliability.

I would tend to agree. The relevant term is Dunkelflaute, and while it is possible it lasts longer than two weeks (e.g.: three weeks), this would be an exceedingly rare condition.

Seasonal storage is an interesting research subject and trying to solve that is not a bad idea, but it isn't strictly necessary. Storage in 12-24 hours, and on the other hand 1-3 week timescales is much more important. As always, it's about where to spend resources.

For example, if 12-24hrs storage can be had by controlling existing HVAC and hot water + electric vehicle charging, it makes no sense to tackle the same storage with distributed li-ion batteries which cost at least 10 times more (and have significant environmental impact).

And, if 3 week timescale can be had by building e.g. more pumped hydro, thermal storages for heating needs (e.g. operating at 75% efficiency), and improving grid connections (so that it's possible to import from further away), it makes no sense to invest 10x more money to try to build a 12-month timescale hydrogen infrastructure (operating at 25% efficiency).

Research projects are fine because we need to explore the unknowns.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2024, 07:19:42 am by Siwastaja »
 
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Offline zilp

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #79 on: July 24, 2024, 11:04:49 am »
For Germany, the last study I read on the topic came to the conclusion that we'd need about two weeks of demand in storage capacity to maintain grid reliability.

I would tend to agree. The relevant term is Dunkelflaute, and while it is possible it lasts longer than two weeks (e.g.: three weeks), this would be an exceedingly rare condition.

Also, in that exceedingly rare case, one potentially could still burn natural gas, if one has gas power plants for burning hydrogen or synthetic methane. Assuming the whole natural gas business hasn't become completely uneconomical by then.

Seasonal storage is an interesting research subject and trying to solve that is not a bad idea, but it isn't strictly necessary. Storage in 12-24 hours, and on the other hand 1-3 week timescales is much more important. As always, it's about where to spend resources.

For example, if 12-24hrs storage can be had by controlling existing HVAC and hot water + electric vehicle charging, it makes no sense to tackle the same storage with distributed li-ion batteries which cost at least 10 times more (and have significant environmental impact).

Though battery storage for daily cycles is already economically viable (batteries tend to have a limited wall clock time life, but if you cycle them daily, the cost per kWh discharged is not astronomical). And sodium batteries might help with the environmental impact. But load control certainly is the cheapest option, where possible, and more electric vehicles will also provide more capacity that can be load controlled, while also providing the demand that pays for building more generation capacity, which then automatically becomes "over provisioned" for the load that you can't shift around.

And, if 3 week timescale can be had by building e.g. more pumped hydro, thermal storages for heating needs (e.g. operating at 75% efficiency), and improving grid connections (so that it's possible to import from further away), it makes no sense to invest 10x more money to try to build a 12-month timescale hydrogen infrastructure (operating at 25% efficiency).

Hydrogen and stuff wouldn't be at 25% efficiency, though. I mean, from electricity to hydrogen and back, you might be in that ballpark, but one big load in such a situation presumably would be heating, and a heat pump would get it back to ~ 75%, too.

Of course, 12-month scale storage still wouldn't make a whole lot of sense.
 

Online Phil1977

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #80 on: July 24, 2024, 11:55:46 am »

Hydrogen and stuff wouldn't be at 25% efficiency, though. I mean, from electricity to hydrogen and back, you might be in that ballpark, but one big load in such a situation presumably would be heating, and a heat pump would get it back to ~ 75%, too.

Of course, 12-month scale storage still wouldn't make a whole lot of sense.

For a heat pump you need to first convert the hydrogen back to electricity. To use it directly for heating is by far the most stupid idea.
 

Offline woodchips

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #81 on: July 25, 2024, 04:18:41 pm »
Wow, thread still running, well done.

As has been mentioned, the solar farms covering acres, how many inverters do they use? I can't really imagine one larger than, say, 100kW, but do they exist? What technology is used, are semiconductors that large, and switching time?

In my books, came across synchronous converters, even 100 years ago these were many MW. They claim efficiencies more than 90% so are they a realistic alternative to solid state inverters? There is the reliability problem, but my observed reliability of inverter TIG/MIG welders and AC drives leaves a lot to be desired. A blow up every 200 hours isn't good, but if they were used more then perhaps damp doesn't kill them so quickly, my experience of Lithium battery chargers.

Watching the sun moving across the fields, and if it was solar panels, not wheat, then I would imagine a serious increase/decrease in solar output as the sun sweeps across the panels, or are the panels divided up into many inverters to fix the problem?
 

Offline uer166

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #82 on: July 25, 2024, 07:12:27 pm »

In my books, came across synchronous converters, even 100 years ago these were many MW. They claim efficiencies more than 90% so are they a realistic alternative to solid state inverters? There is the reliability problem, but my observed reliability of inverter TIG/MIG welders and AC drives leaves a lot to be desired. A blow up every 200 hours isn't good

What in the world does this have to do with solar/industrial battery inverters? The data is out there, why do people keep making shit up
 
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Offline zilp

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #83 on: July 25, 2024, 08:01:10 pm »
What in the world does this have to do with solar/industrial battery inverters? The data is out there, why do people keep making shit up

Because well-established, proven technology can not possibly actually work if it isn't deployed to destroy the world, that is why.

We have HVDC transmission systems that manage to feed gigawatts of power from a DC source into the AC grid using solid state inverters, something that anyone around this forum can be expected to be aware of ... but surely, there must be some unsurmountable problem with feeding a few MW from a utility scale solar plant into the grid! Probably it's the same problem that causes us to tear down and rebuild those HVDC inverters every two years ... not.
 

Offline jonpaul

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #84 on: July 25, 2024, 10:13:42 pm »
all utility grids ARE by def "synchronous"

Any added power connection is first synchronized and after connected.

An unsync source needs a converter to connect.

See any text on basic power engineering and grid stability.

Jon
Jean-Paul  the Internet Dinosaur
 

Online CatalinaWOW

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #85 on: July 26, 2024, 01:46:12 am »
Hey Benz and Ford proved you can get from place to place in a gasoline powered car.  Why are people suggesting that there might be problems when multiplying that demonstration by millions?

There are so many of the "rolling coal" types throwing shade at green energy that proponents of green energy assume that any word of caution or possible problems.  I personally am quite sure that there will be problems, often not because of the technology but because of stupidity, oversight and procrastination.  And I am equally sure that there will be problems that surprise all of us.  It seems unlikely that any of this will prevent implementation, but the will be hiccups.  Some quite disturbing to those affected.
 

Online Andy Chee

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #86 on: July 26, 2024, 03:35:29 am »
I can't really imagine one larger than, say, 100kW, but do they exist? What technology is used, are semiconductors that large, and switching time?

In my books, came across synchronous converters, even 100 years ago these were many MW.

I refer you to the HVDC interconnectors used in Japan to connect the Western Japan 60Hz grid to the Eastern Japan 50Hz grid.  In the post-war rebuilding period, USA and Europe brought their own 60Hz and 50Hz equipment.  The grid remains divided today.

The grid interconnectors once used synchronous converters.  Today they've been upgraded to semiconductors.

Despite this, interconnector capacity is still inadequate to supply energy needs stemming from the loss of Fukushima.  The effect is that Eastern Japan is rationing power, whilst Western Japan has an energy surplus.  Total interconnnector capacity is 1.2GW.



« Last Edit: July 26, 2024, 03:46:15 am by Andy Chee »
 

Offline zilp

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #87 on: July 26, 2024, 08:05:49 am »
Hey Benz and Ford proved you can get from place to place in a gasoline powered car.  Why are people suggesting that there might be problems when multiplying that demonstration by millions?

The problem with this analogy is that we are already at the stage that multi-MW diesel engines are driving large ships, millions of gasoline powered cars are on the streets, and the suggested problem is "I doubt that diesel driven locomotives can work, because my cheap gasoline-powered lawn mover keeps crapping out".

There are literally millions of microinverters in operation (Germany alone has about 650000 officially registered "Balkonkraftwerk" installations, those are all microinverters, and there probably are quite a few who don't bother to register theirs), Germany alone has more than 15000 solar power plants with nominal net peak power of more than 500 kW, five of them with more than 100 MW, we have dozens of HVDC links on the planet that each feed GW of DC power into AC grids.

Just yesterday around noon, here in Germany, we had about 43 GW of solar power feeding into the grid, plus 4 GW of wind and 3 GW of hydro, at a total load of about 59 GW.

The problem is not that people are suggesting problems. There are very qualified people who are suggesting problems and who are advising governments on strategies to mitigate them or who are working on engineering solutions to them, and that is very valuable. But that doesn't mean that any suggestion of a possible problem by people who obviously haven't even bothered to get a clue as to roughly what the current state of the technology is is valuable. Nor does such behaviour suggest that they are actually genuinely concerned about real problems or about solving those real problems.

There are so many of the "rolling coal" types throwing shade at green energy that proponents of green energy assume that any word of caution or possible problems.

That certainly isn't true for me, and I don't think that it is true for many others either. I very much welcome suggestions of genuine potential problems that have so far been overlooked, because the best thing that can happen is that we are aware of those problem as early as possible, so we can mitigate them before we sink billions into stuff that doesn't work, or experience devastating problems because of a screwed up roll-out.

I don't assume that "any word of caution" is disingenuous, but I do conclude just that when it is obvious that the person speaking hasn't put in even the minimum amount of effort to have even the slightest clue what the current state of affairs is, and are spouting theories about supposed problems that are so blatantly obvious that obviously those people who are building renewable energy systems (believe it or not, those people tend to be electrical engineers) have thought of them decades ago, and have long since developed and deployed solutions for them, when the technology that supposedly is likely to be so very unreliable is in reality already deployed in thousands or millions of commercial products/installations, ...

I personally am quite sure that there will be problems, often not because of the technology but because of stupidity, oversight and procrastination.  And I am equally sure that there will be problems that surprise all of us.  It seems unlikely that any of this will prevent implementation, but the will be hiccups.  Some quite disturbing to those affected.

It's just that that's exactly the thing that we've been hearing from nay-sayers for decades, all while renewable energy here in Germany has climbed from a percent or two (hydro power) of the electricity supply to regularly 80% plus. Always, the next few percent would make the grid collapse. Always, the proposed technology was imposible to build for some made-up "fundamental reason". Always, something catastrophic was going to happen any time now.

Politicians and utility companies over here even built a big-ish (3 MW) wind turbine back in the 80s with the explicit goal of demonstrating that it doesn't work. To quote from Wikipedia:

Quote
The partners as well as the BMFT also had political motives connected with the project. Günther Klätte, management board member of RWE, stated during a general business meeting: "We require Growian [in the general sense of large wind turbines] as a proof of failure of concept", and he noted that "the Growian is a kind of pedagogical tool to convert the anti-nuclear energy crowd to the true faith".[6] A similar statement regarding the incurred financial burdens was reported of Minister of Finance and former Minister of Research Hans Matthöfer: "We know it won't do anything for us. But we do it to demonstrate to the wind energy advocates that it doesn't work."[6] After the Green Party had derided the installation as the electricity provider's "fig leaf" on the occasion of groundbreaking in May 1981, the RWE took internal measures to make sure that publicly a position of open-mindedness towards alternative energy production was emphasized while public interest in wind energy was allayed.

Now, that project did indeed fail, for reasons. But also, the Danes at the same time were already successfully building similarly sized wind turbines. And nowadays, we obviously have 15 MW models working just fine. Even though that fundamentally can't actually work, I guess.

And note how all of that happened with zero giant catastrophic events.

Now, obviously, there have been problems along the way. Obviously, not every approach worked out. Obviously, there have been prototypes that were dead ends. Obviously, here and there, solar inverters or wind turbines went up in flames. Those things obviously have been learned from, resulting in a pretty mature technology by now.

So, yeah, there have been hiccups, of course there have been hiccups. But nothing remotely on the scale of being a problem for grid reliability. And with the emphasis on "have been", because much of the hiccups that people imagine are going to come are already in the past. And also, rarely, if ever, were the doomsday scenarios painted by nay-sayers in any way useful for improving the technology. What was useful were people actually conducting studies. People actualy modeling grids with varying contributions from various energy sources. People doing the actual work that was necessary to figure out stable control schemes. Not people shouting over and over some variation of "control systems can be unstable if improperly constructed" ... like that's a thing that engineers aren't aware of.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2024, 08:20:02 am by zilp »
 
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Online CatalinaWOW

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Re: Stability of grids with a high percentage of asynchronous sourcing
« Reply #88 on: July 26, 2024, 03:07:56 pm »
I will only say that large scale conventional grids had been operating for quite some time -- at the time of the famous Northeastern US power blackout.  And a few subsequent ones, all of which occured after analysis of what went wrong and many proposed solutions implemented.

None of this is intended to delay implementation of new energy sources.  Just saying that it isn't free, and in some areas will be more costly and difficult than others.  And I remain sure that there will be surprises.  Things somewhat similar to the discovery that hydroelectric dams, even those with fish ladders are harmful to whole species.  Or that the fluorocarbons carefully engineered to be harmless weren't completely harmless.  Or (as the Benz and Ford analogy was meant to convey) that we could put enough exhaust products into the atmosphere to impact the climate.  Of course when we come across these surprises we will come up with solutions. 

 


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