1,000,000 km EV car battery?!!

[Brumby]

[Siwastaja]

Many EV batteries have already succeeded in that in anecdotal experiences, so it's not like any sort of chemistry breakthrough is needed.

Most helpful enabler for long battery life is battery capacity getting bigger, reducing not only depth-of-discharge but relative current, especially charge rate. Plus decent thermal management systems (temperature equalization within pack, active cooling, maybe even heat pump based).

And manufacturers can deal with overguaranteeing, it's a thing, normal business risk management. If they fail in large numbers before, say, 300 000km, then they have a real problem. But guaranteeing 1 000 000 km is not much different from guaranteeing 400 000 km. Most of the cars are already rusted through and dismantled at that point. Battery warranty most likely has conditions like "does not apply to second life use". Even if remaining 1% of customers who drive beyond 400 000km saw 100% failure rate and full replacements, the marketing advantage for giving such guarantee and the growth enabled by that more than pays for those replacements.

[tszaboo]

Great, then the battery will last 5 times as much as the rest of the car. Hooray, polar bears saved.

[Siwastaja]

Though, building cars which can last for 400 000 km or so would be a great idea. In a modern ICE vehicle costs after 200 000km increase more because there are all sort of expensive NOx sensors and whatnot, some engines are also more notorious to simply wear out (piston seals, whatever). All that can be addressed by maintenance and repair but it kinda builds up at certain point making it appealing to just get a new car instead.

It's not like EVs are free of maintenance either, at around the same 2-300 000km mark you would have wear with suspension, steering, parts etc., but fewer cost items nevertheless.

And as is well known, the battery is the most expensive part, therefore aiming for 4-500 000 km service life doesn't sound like a bad idea to me. If the cars only last for 200 000km then that is something to be resolved instead of hoping that batteries would die soon after 200 000km, too.

[nctnico]

Though, building cars which can last for 400 000 km or so would be a great idea. In a modern ICE vehicle costs after 200 000km increase more because there are all sort of expensive NOx sensors and whatnot, some engines are also more notorious to simply wear out (piston seals, whatever). All that can be addressed by maintenance and repair but it kinda builds up at certain point making it appealing to just get a new car instead.

That depends a lot on make & model. You can still find ICE cars which will last 400k km without breaking the bank. The utterly cheap and bog standard Ford I have is an example of such a model.

It's not like EVs are free of maintenance either, at around the same 2-300 000km mark you would have wear with suspension, steering, parts etc., but fewer cost items nevertheless.

Suspension is typically worn after 120k to 150k km. Unfortunately this is not seen as the safety risk it actually is because worn suspension severely impacts how well a car can go around corners and brake. Second unfortune is that replacing the suspension parts is one of the most expensive repairs you can have on a car. Count on 1000 to 2000 euros for a reasonably standard car. But I happily spend that as I value the lifes of my loved ones.

Still, I think aiming for a useful life of a car somewhere between 300k and 400k km is good enough. It will take about 20 years to drive that much.

[f4eru]

Yep. Tesla's good cell quality together with excellent thermal management makes the batteries already last that long.

I met the guy with the 2 000 000 km model S at a supercharger.
He exchanged batteries and motors a few times, but more because of the design deficiencies of the early model S than the wear, and the batteries he got were used refurbished, not new ones.
The battery he uses now is probably >800 000 km and still 80% or so, with a lot of fast charger use (he tries to supercharge at reduced speed when possible tho.)
Newer vehicles will easily go up to 1 Mio km when treated well...
Other OEMs are catching up, except Nissan, who still sells the badly managed antiquated Leaf...

[Siwastaja]

Tesla's good cell quality together with excellent thermal management makes the batteries already last that long.

Plus sheer size. If you drive and charge a 85kWh Tesla like a normal car, discharge and charge rates are most of the time close to 0.1C, and DOD in daily use less than 50% and more only on roadtrips. Compare to other early EVs like the original 24kWh Nissan Leaf and it's not surprising they are toast after 200 000km of similar use.

[iMo]

I "was" quite skeptical guy re electro-mobility. Until I spent 4-5 hours (as a passenger only) in the latest model Y a week back, driving highways, narrow streets in Austrian hilly villages, and finally a quick trip to a 1750m asl alpine parking place (an unpaved road). We created 27kW while getting downhill.. All we need are faster chargers everywhere..
In my next life that will be my first car, definitely.. 

[Siwastaja]

All we need are faster chargers everywhere..

I don't think this is an issue anymore (it definitely was). I would prefer to see more focus on that "everywhere" part than that "faster" part. At some point, peak power fetish surpassed the range fetish. Some years ago, everyone asked how long can you drive on one charge, and manufacturers advertised that number. A few years later key marketing figure seems to be fast charging speeds, sometimes ridiculously high like over 200kW.

To me, charging power is more like "nice-to-have" feature. If I had to choose between 25% larger battery capacity vs. 100% higher charging speed, my choice would be 25% larger battery capacity. Also because from battery viewpoint, 25% larger battery gives 25% higher charging speed "for free" (if we fix the amount of damage we accept to the battery per charge). And because if I have an EV with driving range of 500km it is significantly less likely that I need to almost ever fast charge than if I have one with range of 400km. It's a really significant difference.

And because 25% larger battery gives 25% improvement in battery efficiency and cold performance, and 25% less heat generated during charge. In other words - if a 40kWh pack charges at max 20kW at -10degC, a 50kWh pack charges at max 25kW at same -10degC, without having to spend a single Joule to stuff like intelligent battery preheating.

So in my opinion, it all starts from maximizing the energy storage. Stuff like higher speed charging, smart pre-heating, active thermal management etc. is very useful but should be complementary.

We have a lot of 150kW capable quick charge stations basically on every corner nowadays, they have popped up like mushrooms after rain in last 2-3 years. Yet it is still normal to see long queues on them when everybody happens to want to charge at the same time at the exact same hotspot, many with their 40-60kWh batteries. If everybody had at least 70kWh, one tenth of quick charger capacity would probably suffice. I mean both number of chargers and their power.

This extra capacity also allows people not to charge every night but e.g. choose cheap charging hours if variable pricing is available to them. And it makes the battery last for the 500 000km or so, unlike those small poor 40kWh-ish packs quick charged at 75kW on every trip, eating many% for stuff like pre-heating while waiting in line to get to the charger which you can't choose to skip...

So yes, improvements in battery energy density and $/kWh are still IMHO the factor #1. Even though both are already pretty excellent now if you look 10 years back.

[uer166]

+1, we need more overnight public L2/L1 chargers for urban environments, not more superchargers/DCFC

[Siwastaja]

+1, we need more overnight public L2/L1 chargers for urban environments, not more superchargers/DCFC

Overnight yes, and that's surprisingly good even for "over shopping".

Also advances in power electronics have shifted the possibilities back to what was once seen as some kind of dead end: fast(er) AC charging. If manufacturers truly wish so, it is quite easy and not that expensive to design 22kW on-board charger (one that accepts 3~ 230V 32A or near 100A 240V) anymore; not that much "dead weight" compared to now typical 11kW options.

I mean if you have a driving range of 500km you are almost 100% likely to have more than 30-40 minutes of stop(s) unless you are a masochist. With a 22kW charger, this gives you nearly 100km of extra range! It's not insignificant at all, and such 22kW charging station (no power electronics, just payment and AC power) is so much cheaper to operate that you can get at least ten of those scattered all around the towns for the cost of one single 150kW charger. Better coverage. And usually no need to get more expensive and larger contract or cable work.

DC fast charging network is very important to have but at least here it's "already here". It's nearly miraculous how quickly it realized, the chicken and egg problem just disappeared.

[iMo]

Yep, but it is not only about the "technological stuff" (most people do not understand kw/kwh etc.), but rather about a "tradition, or the way how we did it in past.." for people like me - who spent 5 minutes at the gas station and got a full tank.. I am pretty confident in say 5 years we will return to the old habits at the electron stations.. 

PS: like - why I should care about my home charging equipment, about cheaper electricity times during night, etc. The owners of the "electron stations" should care. They have to accumulate the energy as cheap as possible somewhere/somehow, and sell it at the station the same way as we do today with petrol. And the new batteries and charging technology in the near future should allow to us - mainstream lazy people - to charge a full battery in say 5 minutes as it has been for last ~120 years.. 

[Siwastaja]

Yep, but it is not only about the "technological stuff" (most people do not understand kw/kwh etc.), but rather about a "tradition, or the way how we did it in past.." for people like me - who spent 5 minutes at the gas station and got a full tank.. I am pretty confident in say 5 years we will return to the old habits at the electron stations.. 

It's hard to say for sure. Some say old habits die hard, but when they do they suddenly do. I think the fast expansion of quick charging was important to get some of the "naysayers", especially elderly people, into the camp. And indeed, some people use fast charging excessively, which has no upsides, only downsides: extra nuisance of having to "stop to fuel"; more expensive; wears out the battery faster.

But then again, when you really need it, it's invaluable.

[tszaboo]

+1, we need more overnight public L2/L1 chargers for urban environments, not more superchargers/DCFC

There are 60K charging stations in the USA for 300 Million people.
There are 150K charging stations in the Netherlands for 15 Million people.

You will see higher number for the number of ports. But this is just to put things in perspective.
Oh and your government put a lot of effort to make more. "Hi I'm from the government and I'm here to help"

[thm_w]

+1, we need more overnight public L2/L1 chargers for urban environments, not more superchargers/DCFC

There are 60K charging stations in the USA for 300 Million people.
There are 150K charging stations in the Netherlands for 15 Million people.

You will see higher number for the number of ports. But this is just to put things in perspective.
Oh and your government put a lot of effort to make more. "Hi I'm from the government and I'm here to help"

You've made two posts in this thread and they are both nonsensical. What are you trying to say exactly?
Remember not to discuss politics.

[Electrodynamic]

There are 60K charging stations in the USA for 300 Million people.
There are 150K charging stations in the Netherlands for 15 Million people.

You will see higher number for the number of ports. But this is just to put things in perspective.
Oh and your government put a lot of effort to make more. "Hi I'm from the government and I'm here to help"

Did a little fact checking and the statements above are correct, kind of.

The U.S. has 336,673,595 people, 56k charging stations, 192k public charging ports and 500k residential charging ports for a total of 748k. Where the Netherlands has 17,821,419 people and 518k charging ports which includes public and residential charging ports.

So the Netherlands has about 1 charge port per 34 people and the U.S. 1 charge port per 450 people.

In my opinion this has everything to do with demographics. The Netherlands is a smaller more temperate country with a high population density which is 92% urban and perfect for short trips using an EV. The majority of the population is also younger and more progressive thus more likely to adopt new technology.

On the other hand here in Western Canada we have a low population density, miles of nothing between cities and long bitter winters often below -30C for weeks at a time. The population also tends to be older and less progressive with an aversion to new technology.

So it's pretty easy to understand how a country like the Netherlands is much better suited for hybrids and EV's.

[Siwastaja]

perfect for short trips using an EV. The majority of the population is also younger and more progressive thus more likely to adopt new technology.

On the other hand here in Western Canada we have a low population density, miles of nothing between cities and long bitter winters often below -30C for weeks at a time. The population also tends to be older and less progressive with an aversion to new technology.

This is pretty much true, although this is also exactly what is changing as we speak.

Just a few year ago the joke here was that you need to be able to drive non-stop form Helsinki to Utsjoki (1300km) in -40degC and strong headwind while towing a trailer and until that is possible, EV is a non-option. Well obviously it turns out you can't do that with any stock ICE vehicle either and I think it was last year some journalists actually tried to reproduce this which was originally meant for a joke and they found out that with modern EVs you do it with two short breaks no longer than what you absolutely need to urinate and grab something to drink and eat (takeaway and eat on the road of course) anyway.

Just 5 years ago the EV was at the destination like 5-10 hours later than the ICE equivalent, now the difference was either completely gone or measured in tens of minutes. Sure, that involved some pretty expensive EVs, sub-100k but still. But the improvements are massive.

[Wolfram]

One factor that the EV manufacturers fail to communicate is that more and more production EVs are using LFP chemistry batteries. This could be related to the lower energy density, but the upside is the greatly increased cycle life compared to Lithium metal oxide batteries. In addition to increased battery lifetime in normal use, any improvement in battery cycle life makes it more attractive to use the car battery for energy storage purposes.

[Siwastaja]

One factor that the EV manufacturers fail to communicate is that more and more production EVs are using LFP chemistry batteries. This could be related to the lower energy density, but the upside is the greatly increased cycle life compared to Lithium metal oxide batteries. In addition to increased battery lifetime in normal use, any improvement in battery cycle life makes it more attractive to use the car battery for energy storage purposes.

Yeah, on the other hand large enough NCA or NMC pack easily outlasts the car; only very small packs driven very hard and without any thermal management have had problems (+ isolated quality control issues which happen equally to all chemistries). As questioned by tszaboo, what difference does it make if we are able to improve the battery lifetime beyond 1 million km? I mean, you could easily guarantee like 300 000 km on any modern day pack. The fact some manufacturers still give "just" 100k mile / 160 000 km guarantee or so shows most customers do not expect more.

So LFP's higher cycle life might enable marketing stunts like longer-than-necessary warranties, but real reasons to use such chemistries are elsewhere - cost and availability of materials. It's an interesting optimization problem because excessively heavy battery pack isn't good for energy use (and tire replacement costs!) during all that 1 million kilometers.

Anyway it's interesting to see. 20 years ago LFP was touted as the big thing for EVs, then totally abandoned due to poor energy density (except hobbyist conversion vehicles), and a few years ago made a comeback since advances in general means that today's LFP is nearly as dense as more dense chemistries 10 years ago.

[Siwastaja]

makes it more attractive to use the car battery for energy storage purposes.

Given the "energy crisis" and all, it's nearly unbelievable how much European manufacturers have sucked in making this reality. The Japanese succeeded here more than a decade ago and any old Leaf has V2G/V2X support as does the Chademo standard. And yet the CCS folks still have not managed to make it official and spread; a few manufacturers have their own support. Needless to say, off-the-shelf inverters are still nearly impossible to buy (this does apply to Chademo as well, though - maybe you would need to import from Japan).

And then again, you can buy a battery-PV hybrid inverter for a tad over 1000EUR (just a few hundred more than PV-only inverter) - one which usually connects to some kind of home LFP battery tower e.g. BYD and others. All you need to replace this battery tower with your EV is a data conversion bridge + contactor unit to connect the inverter's battery input to a V2G-supporting vehicle, component cost is ridiculously small. Someone must have designed it, but clearly no one has put it in the market.

[woody]

In my opinion this has everything to do with demographics. The Netherlands is a smaller more temperate country with a high population density which is 92% urban and perfect for short trips using an EV. The majority of the population is also younger and more progressive thus more likely to adopt new technology.
So it's pretty easy to understand how a country like the Netherlands is much better suited for hybrids and EV's.

The Netherlands IS very well suited for EV's. Basically one big city. Unfortunately the resistance in my country to driving EV's was always there and is growing as of lately. IMO a large reason behind that is the way taxes and subsidies are structured around company cars, electricity and fuel prices. Younger and more progressive has absolutely nothing to do with it.

Anyway, back on topic. As EV batteries now seem to be able to easily outlive the cars they are in, I think it might be time to make vehicle to grid mandatory. It is kind of silly to sell people expensive home battery systems while they have a very large battery in their driveways that most of the time just sits there, doing nothing.

*edit: Excuses, I should have read the last posts also; they said the same.

[thm_w]

I mean, you could easily guarantee like 300 000 km on any modern day pack. The fact some manufacturers still give "just" 100k mile / 160 000 km guarantee or so shows most customers do not expect more.

Nothing to do with customers not expecting more, 100k miles 8 years was a US federal requirement. If they had not done this, big manufacturers would just put the regular garbage gas car 3 year 36,000 mile warranty on them.

https://www.capitalone.com/cars/learn/getting-a-good-deal/how-do-ev-battery-warranties-work/1960

[CatalinaWOW]

Yep, but it is not only about the "technological stuff" (most people do not understand kw/kwh etc.), but rather about a "tradition, or the way how we did it in past.." for people like me - who spent 5 minutes at the gas station and got a full tank.. I am pretty confident in say 5 years we will return to the old habits at the electron stations.. 

PS: like - why I should care about my home charging equipment, about cheaper electricity times during night, etc. The owners of the "electron stations" should care. They have to accumulate the energy as cheap as possible somewhere/somehow, and sell it at the station the same way as we do today with petrol. And the new batteries and charging technology in the near future should allow to us - mainstream lazy people - to charge a full battery in say 5 minutes as it has been for last ~120 years.. 

That five minute fill up hasn't been around for 120 years.  120 years ago those early adopters who bought motorized carriages hunted around for a hardware store or apothecary that carried gasoline.  Usually in on gallon tins, sometimes in quarts (metric people were much less common then, but had similar size containers).   Later five gallon and larger containers became available.  After more than a decade the first gas pumps arrived, which started with a hand pump that moved the gas into a graduated glass vessel on a pillar.  After the appropriate amount was in the glass vessel it was allowed to drain into the car owners tank.  This was faster than wrestling with containers of gas, but I am sure was more than five minutes.  A couple of more decades and pumps more like modern pumps became available, but the stop was still longer because the technology of cars of the time made it important to check oil and coolant levels at the same time.   

I am certain that the electric charging network will follow the same general trend,and probably on a similar time scale.  In both cases the technology is not the real limiter, it is the costs of implementation.

[CatalinaWOW]

Though, building cars which can last for 400 000 km or so would be a great idea. In a modern ICE vehicle costs after 200 000km increase more because there are all sort of expensive NOx sensors and whatnot, some engines are also more notorious to simply wear out (piston seals, whatever). All that can be addressed by maintenance and repair but it kinda builds up at certain point making it appealing to just get a new car instead.

It's not like EVs are free of maintenance either, at around the same 2-300 000km mark you would have wear with suspension, steering, parts etc., but fewer cost items nevertheless.

And as is well known, the battery is the most expensive part, therefore aiming for 4-500 000 km service life doesn't sound like a bad idea to me. If the cars only last for 200 000km then that is something to be resolved instead of hoping that batteries would die soon after 200 000km, too.

At some point, it may make sense to make forever cars.  In some ways I hope we aren't there yet.  I am one of those who tends to drive vehicles hundreds of thousands of (miles/kilometers for this discussion it doesn't really matter).  Particularly since I do my own maintenance it is definitely more cost efficient than buying new vehicles.  As nearly as I can tell the only thing that really forces retirement of a vehicle from a maintenance cost standpoint is complete rotting out of the frame and body.  And maybe not even then.

But I have found that in the years that it takes me to get that distance on a vehicle, technical improvements make a new vehicle very desirable.  My first vehicle had points, a carburetor, drum brakes and so on.  The second vehicle still had a carburetor but had moved on the electronic ignition and disk brakes.  Later vehicles started having niceties that became necessities.  Intermittent wipers.  Power windows.  Temperature controlled climate systems.  Good sound systems.  Engine management system.  Anti-skid breaks.  Traction control.  GPS. Accurate range prediction.  Greatly improved fuel economy.    And several more.

Retrofitting all those improvements is generally possible, but nearly impossible to get a good, well integrated system that is both functional and visually appealing. 

I don't know what future features will become "necessary".  But I see no real signs that the automobile has been perfected such that lasting forever would be attractive.

[3roomlab]

i'll just put this here, i bet some of you seen his videos before


there is also the toshiba SCiB
https://hybris-project.eu/toshiba-batteries-main-features-and-optimization-part-ii-of-iii/

i think yinlong is suppose to be the copy of SCiB, but there is so many fakes online