Hi Selcuk,
Thank you so much for all the help, I really appreciate it. Thank you also for sharing your experience with manufacturing tolerances. It's good to know that the plastic enclosure will probably have a bigger impact than the PCB tolerances.
I will work on including the enclosure into the simulation, but I believe I finally found a design I'm happy with. Its impedance varies depending on the size of the ground plane, but as long as the ground plane is at least a minimum size (something like 80mm long), I've found that I can usually tune it to be good simply by trimming the length. I'll attach it here as a thank you and a resource for anyone else with a similar problem.
Thank for downloading and modifying my simulation. The way you incorporate the rule of thirds with the grid lines is pretty slick, I'm not sure I would have figured that out on my own. I know that it looked like there was a ground plane under the antenna in the sim I previously attached, but it was actually removed by the "ground cutout" substrate I added. Because the substrate had a higher priority, it overwrote the copper that was below the antenna. You can verify that's the case because if you change the substrate priority to be lower than the ground plane and run the simulation, it doesn't radiate at all. But I can see how it might be confusing and it definitely made the CSXCAD rendering kind of ugly.
My plan is to buy a PCB with this antenna (with some extra length!) and mess around with that by itself before ordering my actual prototype PCB. I know my final prototype PCB antenna will probably look a bit different, but this way I at least get my feet wet.
I did have one final question though: we spoke previously about how hard it is to simulate all the traces and components, so my overall plan is to do an approximate simulation and then tune the final version. But I want to make sure my intuition is right. If my simulation shows an antenna works well with a PCB of certain dimensions, is it pretty safe to route the rest of the circuit where I don't have ground pours? For example, in the attached image, can I put the rest of my circuit in the yellow area, on both sides of the PCB, and include an inner power plane? Would doing all that completely invalidate the simulation? Or does that stuff only affect antenna performance slightly? I'm assuming it's okay, because where else can you put the circuit? lol