Thank you all -- three very helpful suggestions, covering different flavors of a possible implementation.
I will at least try one of the cheap ultrasound distance sensors, either in free space or in a tube, because it would be such a simple, low-cost solution. Am concerned about the longevity of the sensors though, they will probably corrode quickly. Leo's "sound in a pipe" design is very close to what I have in mind, and the use of a cheap but waterproof speaker and microphone is neat.
And then there is, of course, the option of using a decent ultrasound transducer right away. I am reluctant to spend the > $100, but that might well be where I end up anyway, if not now, then two years from now when my homebrew solutions have failed for the third time...
Maxbotix look like a good choice, and I have found a distributor in Germany. I will ping them for advice regarding measurement in the presence of obstructions, and also how to deal with condensation. (I came to realize that in cold weather, when the sensor is colder than the water below, I should probably expect condensation right on the sensor.)