Does the taxation of robotics make any sense

[soldar]

Americans can travel to the EU without a visa (limited to 90 days with a process change in the works), why wouldn't the Brits, a close neighbor, have the same privileges?

Why would they? Why should they? You tell us.  Mexico is a close neighbor of the USA. Do Mexicans have the privilege of traveling to the USA without a visa?

If the UK is requiring visas of EU nationals then sure as hell the EU should start requiring visas for Brits.  And if it were up to me they would have to fill out the application in German. And, for good measure, answer (in German) some idiotic questions like they ask in American visa applications. Do you find Angela Merkel sexy? Do you enjoy French kissing? Etc.

[apis]

A weak and divided UK will be taking orders from countries with stronger economies.

The UK, by itself, is the 6th largest economy in the world, just behind California.  The important GDPs are:

US $19.4T
EU $15.9T after removing $2.6T for the UK
China $12.2T
California $2.7T
UK $2.6T

I suppose this graph shows why Trump & Co are so happy about this:

https://mgmresearch.com/us-vs-eu-a-gdp-comparison/

The UK is technically advanced and well beyond the small EU players.  I think they can do quite well for themselves on the world stage.  They're already a financial powerhouse!  And outposts in Frankfurt aren't going to change that!

50% of UK's exports and imports are to/from the EU. They are completely dependent on the EU. They will be dancing to the tune of the EU, US and China in the future which I suspect you know perfectly well.

[soldar]

The UK, by itself, is the 6th largest economy in the world, just behind California.  The important GDPs are:

US $19.4T
EU $15.9T after removing $2.6T for the UK
China $12.2T
California $2.7T
UK $2.6T

So it seems California should also seek independence so they do not have to support backwards, poor states.

There are three *huge* economies right now: USA, EU & China. Then you have some *big* economies: Japan, UK, India, Brazil, Canada, Korea, Russia, etc. but they are in another league where their GDP is only a fraction of any of the big three.

The UK is welcome to exit the EU and play in the second league. If they would just make up their minds!

But to think the UK can negotiate on an equal level with any of the big three is just silly. That is not how things work in the real world. Even Japan is almost double the UK.

Second rate countries have a certain, limited independence and in reality will need to follow closely what their "Big Brother" says.

I am much better at predicting the past than I am at predicting the future but if current trends continue my guess is in some years USA's economy will have fallen to #3 with China and EU having surpassed it. China is very aggressively pursuing trade deals world wide but especially in Asia and I expect to see an "Asian Economic Free Trade Common Market Zone" with no other political integration.  America is heading towards protectionism and isolationism so I expect its influence to decrease.

A UK outside of the EU can definitely survive well but I believe it would do much better inside the EU, just like California does better united to those other backwards states than it would do independently.

[soldar]

I am watching The Lords discussing the seriousness of the situation. Very entertaining.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks/brexit-fallout-on-uk-finance-intensifies-think-tank-idUSKBN1QS00B

Brexit fallout on UK finance intensifies -

More than 275 financial firms are moving a combined $1.2 trillion (£925 billion) in assets and funds and thousands of staff from Britain to the European Union in readiness for Brexit at a cost of up to $4 billion
...
Nearly 90 percent of all firms moving to Frankfurt are banks, while two-thirds of those going to Amsterdam are trading platforms or brokers. Paris is carving out a niche for markets and trading operations of banks and attracting a broad spread of firms. 

UK might be leaving the EU but many businesses would rather stay in the EU and so are moving out of UK. And Brexit hasn't even happened yet.

How many businesses have moved or are planning to move from the EU to UK in anticipation of Brexit?

[rstofer]

Americans can travel to the EU without a visa (limited to 90 days with a process change in the works), why wouldn't the Brits, a close neighbor, have the same privileges?

Why would they? Why should they? You tell us.  Mexico is a close neighbor of the USA. Do Mexicans have the privilege of traveling to the USA without a visa?

Were it not for 12 million illegal aliens from the south living in the US, a visa might not be required to travel beyond the immediate border area.  Note that they can cross without a visa to do shopping.  Canadians, equally close, do not require a visa to visit the US.  But they're tourists, not economic refugees.

If the UK is requiring visas of EU nationals then sure as hell the EU should start requiring visas for Brits.

Fair enough!  If the UK is going to require visas then so should the EU.  Whatever scheme seems acceptable.  The problem is the difference between a tourist and an economic refugee.  Everybody wants to control economic migration.

And if it were up to me they would have to fill out the application in German. And, for good measure, answer (in German) some idiotic questions like they ask in American visa applications. Do you find Angela Merkel sexy? Do you enjoy French kissing? Etc.

That would be fair!  We require our entry forms to be in English so German forms should be in German.  Estonian?  That will be a stretch.

I was stationed in Mannheim in '66-'67.  Great place to serve and excellent beer.  Dinkelacker was my favorite!

[rstofer]

So it seems California should also seek independence so they do not have to support backwards, poor states.

A ballot initiative to break California into 6 'states' was rejected by some unelected judge.  The idea of the entire state seceding comes up fairly often.

People think California is like what they see of San Francisco or the government in Sacramento.  From a population point of view, that is correct.  But vast areas of the state are solid red conservative and want nothing to do with San Francisco, Los Angeles or San Diego.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Californias

I actively supported the idea even though the county I live in would have become the poorest in the US.  We might be broke but we would be free of Sacramento and San Francisco.

Maybe it will make the ballot next time.

[soldar]

What I find sad is that the voters who vote for nationalist demagogs are mostly the least educated and the ones who are most hurt by the downturn that ensues. It happens everywhere.

Businesses are pretty much all against Brexit.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/04/japans-eu-deal-threatens-post-brexit-uk-industry

Japan's EU deal 'threatens post-Brexit UK industry'
Alarm raised after Nissan decision to halt expansion of Sunderland car plant
Business groups estimate that the potential benefit of the EU-Japan deal to the UK would be £3bn a year if Britain stayed in the EU.



https://www.ft.com/content/61c35b04-5540-11e9-91f9-b6515a54c5b1

UK manufacturing growth vulnerable to post-Brexit tariffs
Four industries most responsible for sector’s recovery also rely on close ties with EU
Vehicle manufacturers added as much to growth between 2012 and mid-2016 as the next five industries combined
The manufacture of food, motor vehicles and other transport equipment and the repair of machinery accounted for 30 per cent of the manufacturing sector’s weight, but 86 per cent of its growth over the 10-year period from 2008




https://www.smmt.co.uk/industry-topics/brexit/

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders warns on the consequences.

[rstofer]

What I find sad is that the voters who vote for nationalist demagogs are mostly the least educated and the ones who are most hurt by the downturn that ensues. It happens everywhere.

Businesses are pretty much all against Brexit.

And businesses can't vote!  At least not directly, although they can financially affect the campaigning.

It comes down to people voting for what they want.  That's the problem with democracies (and ours is no exception), people find they can vote themselves benefits and, sure enough, that's the way they vote.  Until they run out of other people's money.

I don't think the voters in the UK view the government in Brussels as friendly toward their views (the EU certainly did Cameron no favors) and they would rather lead in hell than serve in heaven.  I think they don't favor the fishing arrangement, the freedom of movement or several other 'features'.  Nationalist?  Maybe, but that isn't inherently wrong.

There are a lot of countries, with far smaller GDPs than the UK's, that don't belong to the EU.  Somehow they get by.  They won't be world powers but that suits them.

Do you really expect the EU to survive the problems of Germany financing the Eurozone?  Clicking on the Net Contributor button gives a startling graph.  Absent the UK, Germany will contribute 2-1/2 times as much as the Netherlands and more than 3 times as much as France.  But, in effect, all of Germany's contributions go to support Greece.  The Netherlands combined with France, in effect, go to pay Spain.  Is this really sustainable?  Why would voters, nationalists or not, put up with that nonsense?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8036097.stm#start

And, yes, I realize that the European Commission has said that there are at least 30 different ways to calculate 'net contributions'.  At least the UK was smart enough to negotiate a guaranteed rebate.

What the EU is asking of the UK as part of the Withdrawal Agreement is to match 6 years of Germany's contributions to support Greece.  You can see where the UK voters may not favor that.  And from Germany's point of view, it is just kicking the can down the road.

[apis]

Germany is also the largest country in EU so it makes sense they contribute the most. Somehow things work out in the United States so it will probably work out here as well.

How about a Texit?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/19/texas-secession-movement-brexit-eu-referendum

[apis]

Interesting read:

For example, we have no idea who provided the £435,000 channelled through Scotland, into Northern Ireland, through the coffers of the Democratic Unionist party and back into Scotland and England, to pay for pro-Brexit ads. Nor do we know the original source of the £8m that Arron Banks delivered to the Leave.EU campaign.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/13/dark-money-hard-brexit-targeted-ads-facebook

[rstofer]

Germany is also the largest country in EU so it makes sense they contribute the most. Somehow things work out in the United States so it will probably work out here as well.

If you think things are working out in the US, you haven't been paying attention.  You could be witnessing the inevitable death of a democracy (none have lasted more than a couple of hundred years) and the divide between left and right is no longer fixable.  The positions are simply too far apart.  The Trump thing exacerbates the problems, the Hillary supporters just can't believe their candidate failed to get elected.  And, no, getting rid of the Electoral College won't solve the problem.

How about a Texit?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/19/texas-secession-movement-brexit-eu-referendum

Not a surprise!  Texas is the only state with a written guarantee that they can divide into as many as 5 separate states without approval by anyone:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/more-150-years-texas-has-had-power-secede-itself-180962354/

Secession comes up every once in awhile.

The "United" part of "United States" gets more fragile as time goes on.  The more California races to the left, the more ridicule we get from the residents of other states.  Mind you, they're all living in trailers, but they keep picking at us.  One day we're almost bound to get fed up with feeding them.

If I didn't have family here, I would have moved out decades ago.  You see, the Democrats have a 'super majority' in the Legislature so they don't need a single Republican vote to do anything they want.  Those of us in the 'red' areas aren't happy about that.  We're REALLY not happy about that!  Republican legislators should just stay home and quit spending the per diem money.  What's the point of the commute?  They have no input whatsoever into our state government.

Sooner or later things will come to a head and it will be fun to watch how it turns out.

Don't use the "United States" as a model, it isn't all that "United".

[soldar]

And businesses can't vote!  At least not directly, although they can financially affect the campaigning.

They can't vote but they can create jobs. If they leave in droves to remain in the EU the UK will be losing jobs.

So the Brexiteers promise that after a hard Brexit the UK's economy will grow more than the EU's and the EU, USA and China will be grovelling at their feet.

How about this alternative scenario: In the years following a hard Brexit the UK's GDP has shrunk by 10%, thousands of jobs were lost to the EU and things are not going as well as had been hoped. Ulster, tired of being half in and half out votes to join the Republic of Ireland thus depriving the UK of a substantial part of their GDP which returns to the EU. Scotland, who was anti-Brexit from the start is now even more so and votes to secede and join the EU thus depriving the (no longer) UK of more of its GDP. The economy of what is left of England and Wales is now the size of a third or fourth rate country.

At that point the remains of the pro-Brexit crowd will still be blaming the EU for all their sorrows because if there is one thing I know about human nature is that we always find the fault lies with others.

England will be a quaint little country like Croatia. Yes it will manage to get by, just like Croatia or Slovenia. But I don't think that is what the pro-Brexit crowd have in mind.

As for Germany supporting the PIGS, that is just as silly as saying California is supporting the backwards southern states. Yes, there is a transfer of wealth but the richer states also benefit. Germany is selling their stuff all over Europe. There is a great benefit and savings in having common regulations, borders, foreign treaties, etc. The savings and increase in productivity far outweigh the expenses.

England will find out how much it costs to duplicate all of that.

[Zero999]

Yes, many other counties do quite well and are not in the EU: Australia and New Zealand aren't being eaten by the US, China and Russia. The idea that the UK will be easy pickings for the rest of the world, if it leaves the EU without a deal is part of project fear.

The problem with Brexit is change. The UK might have done nearly as well, as it does today, if it had never joined the EU in the first place, but that's because it would have adapted over time. When the UK joined the EU, it lost lots of trade with the commonwealth, but that didn't matter so much, because the EU more than made up for it. If it didn't join, then arguably then the trade with the commonwealth would have increased and the UK would have probably negotiated some kind of trade deal with the EU anyway. Of course this is speculation.

The only reason why some Brits want to hang on to Northern Ireland is nationalism. The UK would be better off if Ireland reunited. I'm pretty sure Northern Ireland gets more money from the rest of the UK, than the other way round.

Scotland will not leave the UK, because they don't want a hard border with the England, even if they are pissed off with Brexit. Scottish independence has many parallels with Brexit. A lot of it is down to nationalism, rather than pragmatism. Fortunately common sense prevailed and they opted to remain in the UK.

[apis]

At that point the remains of the pro-Brexit crowd will still be blaming the EU for all their sorrows because if there is one thing I know about human nature is that we always find the fault lies with others.

England will be a quaint little country like Croatia. Yes it will manage to get by, just like Croatia or Slovenia. But I don't think that is what the pro-Brexit crowd have in mind.

Tourism could become important.

The "United" part of "United States" gets more fragile as time goes on.  The more California races to the left, the more ridicule we get from the residents of other states.  Mind you, they're all living in trailers, but they keep picking at us.  One day we're almost bound to get fed up with feeding them.

From what I can tell it is those pesky Californians that are feeding the rest of you. Yet you have managed to stay united for 240+ years. Political polarisation seems to be a big problem in the US today (something the US might have inherited from the British political system). Thankfully we have a different political system in most of Europe. There are no doubt problems in the EU, like everywhere else, but most of us understand that the benefits far outweigh the problems, and the problems will be fixed with time.

[SilverSolder]

The UK might have done nearly as well, as it does today, if it had never joined the EU in the first place

A bit of history is in order here...   when the UK joined the EU, it was the "sick man of Europe" - it was bailed out by the IMF around that time.

Britain's strategy became being the "gateway to Europe" where the rest of the world could use Britain as a springboard to access the Single Market via an English speaking country with a reputation for political stability.  This worked - it attracted a lot of financial services to the City of London and boosted that sector enormously.  Thatcher invited the Japanese motor companies to create a manufacturing base (with a lot of skilled jobs) in the UK, with the idea of exporting to the Single Market.  Other Japanese industry has followed suit. Tons of British suppliers to these industries have also done well out of it, in addition to the managers and workers.

Given enough time and resources, Britain could of course develop new ways of making a living...   but (1) why not just do that while keeping the existing golden geese?  and (2) nothing is ever as easy as it looks,  or as easy as politicians with an agenda make it sound.

[SilverSolder]

I'm pretty sure Northern Ireland gets more money from the rest of the UK, than the other way round.

The "cost" of NI is not much - the UK pays around the same to NI as it pays to be in the EU, i.e. a tiny fraction of GDP. 

But that wasn't always the case, NI has been a net positive in the past.

It is always dangerous to divide the country into "productive" and "non-productive" -  most areas of the UK are a net negative if you disregard how these areas support the success of London by sending a lot of their best people there!

[Rick Law]

Right now, I think AI+Robotics can probably replace most with IQ less than say 3SD below average, perhaps 2SD below, perhaps even 1SD blow.  Can society exist with that many unhappy individuals?  Should we use drones to control such large and potentially disruptive individuals?

Not a problem to me. People always want to be competitive -- to be one notch above average, hence hierarchy. Serving other people and being served will replace the current manufacturing-based job market.

You don't want a robot serving you meal, you don't want a robot to teach your kids, and you don't want other general service sections to be replaced with robots.

Manufacturing is on sunset, but it doesn't mean other industries won't rise. Robots can replace humans in manufacturing, and R&D to certain extent, but the technology is still far from being able to give the human-like care to other human beings.

[RL: Bold Added ]

I'm not talking about people like you or me and others in this forum.  Like many on this forum, you and me are both college grads.  College students as a group is about 1 Standard Deviation above average by most studies.

How about the fellow who is say 85 (and below) in the USA?  That is about 10%-15% of us at one SD below average.  He/she (as adult) doesn't have the ability to (in your words) "want to be competitive -- to be one notch above average," however hard he/she tries.  As adult, his childhood development is done.

Now it is fair for those who can do 15% less to earn 15% less.  In general, robot cannot do 85 IQ equivalent yet - one can certainly drive a car well at 85 IQ (and below) - ever since we have cars; but self-driving cars are still being tested and refined.  But when robots can do most of what 85 IQ (and below) can do, what are these guys going to do?

I think as a society, we need to address that.

[EDIT: modified "85" to say "85 and below".  The context should be clear even without the mod, but I just want to make sure it is not taken to mean only those at exactly 85.]

[Rick Law]

I'm not talking about people like you or me and others in this forum.  Like many on this forum, you and me are both college grads.  College students as a group is about 1 Standard Deviation above average by most studies.

How about the fellow who is say 85 in the USA?  That is about 10%-15% of us at one SD below average.  He/she (as adult) doesn't have the ability to (in your words) "want to be competitive -- to be one notch above average," however hard he/she tries.  As adult, his childhood development is done.

They can do well in service industry well. One doesn't need to be smart to master the art of dealing with people.

Competitive is not only for IQ. EQ is becoming more and more important, especially considering the rise of AI. The smartest people are always needed to steer AI, but more repetitive jobs yet requiring high level of training are being replaced by AI.

There are a lot of human qualities that are not qualified by IQ, and those qualities are not yet under threat by AI.

IQ and Conscientiousness are the two qualities most tied to performance.  IQ is closely tied to how fast one learns (a task) whereas conscientiousness is closely tied to how well one does a job.  We may not like that, but that is what the studies has shown.  Clearly IQ is not the same as the value of an individual.  Human has value far beyond IQ or Conscientiousness.  That said, higher IQ does mean that the person can learn faster in so far as studies have shown.

As we are increasing the ability of robots, however how high one's IQ is today, there will be a point when that high IQ individual is stuck at a level below what the robots can do.

If it is only 5% of people out-performed by robots, society can probably absorb that and handle it easily.  If however 95% of the people are out-performed by robots, what then?  I don't think we will have a stable or livable society if we fail to address this issue.

[rstofer]

The US Military has a cutoff at an IQ of 85.  They don't have jobs for people lower than this, not even peeling potatoes.

[rstofer]

AI is no danger as long as it requires programmers.  They can't even keep an airplane from falling out of the skies.
Now, if AI is self-replicating or self-programming, we're in serious trouble.

AI Stop Button problem:

[Rick Law]

AI is no danger as long as it required programmers.  They can't even keep an airplane from falling out of the skies.
Now, if AI is self-replicating or self-programming, we're in serious trouble.
...

"if AI is self-replicating or self-programming, we're in serious trouble. "

Machine (self) learning is the rage these days, and one can hardly find any factory without some degree of automation...  It is coming...

By then, we stay home and watch the movie "The Terminator" ... and wait.

-OR-

We gene-edit ourselves so each generation of human is x-times the ability of robots.  That may be the alternative.

[onesixright]

"They are taking the place of a worker that could do the job"

by this logic, shouldn't anime characters be taxed, since a real person could be used to make a movie?

That's a silly comparison. Each anime character is closely associated with a real person, namely the voice actor/actress.

And that’s as well over soon. The perfect actor is waiting around the corner (as in not human).


Sent from my X using Tapatalk

[rstofer]

From what I can tell it is those pesky Californians that are feeding the rest of you. Yet you have managed to stay united for 240+ years.

Hm...

Well, West Virginia did split away from Virginia at the beginning of the Civil War.  Virginia was Confederate and West Virginia was Unionist.  We do have pairs of states: North Dakota/South Dakota and North Carolina/South Carolina.

I live at the northern end of the California Central Valley where all the farming occurs.  I'm surrounded by it!

Farming in California is quite productive and, yes, we provide a lot of food to other states.  But, farming uses 80% of our allocable water and produces just $54B of California's $2.5T GDP.  So, for 2% of our GDP, we give up 80% of our water.  Does that make sense?

Where does the water go?  China!  It turns out that Almond production consumes about 1 gallon of water per nut and China is the largest market for California Almonds.  So, in effect, we export our drinking water.  Does that make sense?

https://newrepublic.com/article/125450/heres-real-problem-almonds

Apparently, Alfalfa uses far more water, has less value per acre, and grows almost anywhere.  It doesn't need to be grown in California.  But Alfalfa fields can be left fallow during droughts.  Almond trees need to be watered no matter what or they die.

Hence the water wars in California...

The petty cash box at Google probably has more money than farming produces so I'm kind of a proponent of getting rid of farming.  Let's build condos!  Uh, no, the Sierra Club has just about halted construction into farming areas.  We'be been sued into building infill projects, trying to make old buildings into new housing without so much as scratching the heritage building.  Separate issue...

But what about the food?  Turns out, when we go to the grocery store, everything on the shelves is imported from South America.  I don't know where California products go but AFAICT, it isn't California.

Stockton claims to be the Asparagus Capital of the World.  They even have a big celebration.  But the asparagus on the shelves is from Chile.  Apparently, asparagus is a high labor product and labor is expensive so the acreage continues to decine.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/asparagus-farms-california_n_7029836

On the automation note:  We do see more advanced machinery used in farming.  With better sensor technology, I expect that to increase.  There simply must be some way to get the labor out of farming.  And get the farming out of California.

[rstofer]

Here's a fluff article on the subject of automation:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/the-robots-are-here-new-unheard-of-job-titles-signal-growing-industry-in-digital-age

They mention how Amazon has employed 80,000 robots while increasing headcount from 45,000 to 600,000.  What they don't mention is that even though Amazon has added a LOT of employees, they have probably forced as many out of the small mom and pop stores they bankrupted.

Way back in the late '60s, I went to the Ford Motor Company Pico Rivera Assembly Plant (Los Angeles).  I watched wheels and tires come down the track and I watch a machine mount the tire and inflate it.  Then it spun the tire to find the balance weight requirements, painted some colored dots on the tire and stopped while a union operator banged on the proper weight.

I didn't for one minute believe that a machine couldn't install the weight.  What I did believe is that the Autoworkers Union was alive and well in Pico Rivera.  The plant was closed in 1980, bought by Northrop Grumman for building the B2 Bomber and finally demolished in 2001.

I've seen a lot of changes since I started working in aerospace 50 years ago.  I was heavily involved with automation of manufacturing equipment and the installation of large scale Numerical Control equipment.  It is a fact that these huge machines with hundreds of cutting horsepower, all controlled by a 1" paper tape drove me back to college.  I simply HAD to know how this worked.  It's been an interesting ride!

I have worked in a number of industries but none as interesting as aerospace.  Sure, computer manufacturing was fun, wafer fab was challenging but, like many firsts, I remember my time in aerospace as the best of times.  I'll bet I would have enjoyed automating auto manufacturing.

[SilverSolder]

I'll bet I would have enjoyed automating auto manufacturing.

Who is going to automate the automation of auto manufacturing?