While not claiming to have the ability to jump ship and become a pick and place manufacturer - I do enjoy considering the issues. One of the biggest things to consider for anyone wanting to design and build one is to have some experience with the practical issues. I had designed and build a manual machine (very basic) and considered making a machine on a similar level to Lite Placer to help with my high density prototypes and short runs.
One day, I stumbled across my opportunity to buy and refurbish a Quad machine. I threw myself into the pick-n-place fire instantly and had to deal with a mountain of issues from motion control to feeders and everything in-between. After getting the machine running in tip top shape, I was faced with the challenge of managing the process as a whole. This very steep learning curve totally changed what I would consider for building my own machine. Like @bootstrap said, I don't want to build the same old machine - I would only be motivated if I could see a path to delivering an innovation of some sort. Something that is uniquely helpful.
Yes, and I'm keenly aware that I have almost no personal/practical experience with SMT assembly equipment (solder-paste stencils, pick-and-place machines, reflow-ovens, PCB cleaning systems for SMT). While I've designed and assembled literally dozens of my own PCBs for my own projects over the years, they were primarily components with leads or pins that are inserted into "through-holes". After doing mostly technology/architecture/system/software design for several years, I return to hardware (what I typically call "electronics") and find pretty much all components I need for my projects are SMT only (or the non-SMT are huge or somehow lame).
So my major hope for being here is to interact with people who have the SMT experiences I don't. While I've been searching and reading about SMT on the internet for 4~5 years, I know how valuable practical experience can be.
I would definitely imagine you learned a lot from that Quad machine experience!
Any sane individual who knows how much time, effort and expense will be involved in a project like we're discussing here will be very hesitant to "dive in". I can live and develop projects on my savings from previous projects, which it sounds like you can't do... or more precisely, which you're not insane enough to do unless you are seriously convinced to quit or pull back on paying contracts. I totally understand and relate-to that. I've been self-employed since before I finished school, and have never been an employee. I've done contracts for the likes of AMD, NASA, AirForceResearchLabs and various observatories over the years, but they were all special-purpose contracts, not employment.
But since you are also a contractor, maybe you can reduce the time you spend on contracts while you collaborate on a project like this...
ASSUMING YOU BECOME CONVINCED WE HAVE SOMETHING SO COOL YOU CANNOT RESIST. That also tends to be my criteria for doing a project or not!
From a business perspective - I have never gone down the path of designing products to be a cheap as possible. I tend to go after the 'cost-effective' business solutions that are not the lowest cost, but have an excellent return. With PnP machines, a LOT of value is correlated with reliability AND speed. That is where the MyData class machines fit. They are reliable and extremely fast at the same time. Of course this also means that the entry level MyData machine is very expensive and only targets full time production. Sacrificing speed does indeed save a lot of money and I have always wondered what is the market size of a $20k PnP solution. At $10k, I think there are too many sacrifices to yield a machine suitable for a business. At $20k, I believe there is enough to work with to make a machine that has the right ingredients for small business in-house production work with modest volumes. That means the (in rough terms) the BOM plus labor would need to max out at under $10K if sales are direct and any profit is expected. The volume of sales has a lot to do with how that ratio is derived, but it is at least a rough starting point.
I tend to prefer projects that are nearer the low-end than the high-end, but never too near the low-end. I think this fairly well matches your position too. My goal is for a $10K selling price that I don't want to allow to go above $20K during the development process. It is my opinion that MAYBE the new forms of applying machine vision will make it possible to achieve the $10K goal, or at least substantially below the $20K price point (at the same kind of direct selling and markup you mention). Since our target market will not be "rich corporations", you'll probably also agree that our support may be mostly on a forum, where adopters of our machine help each other, and we only need to spend time when we disagree with that help (or someone wants to pay us to get help). I don't think we should charge for support that results from our machine suffering defects though. You probably agree (more or less). In other words, I envision NO showroom, NO salespeople, almost no marketing that costs us money, etc.
This is one reason to make a machine that satisfies a niche that
NOBODY ELSE SATISFIES. The fact is, most of my projects (that weren't on contract for existing corporations) were devices or technologies that
DID NOT EXIST. In other words,
no competition! If someone wants what we make, they have nowhere else to go.
We won't be in quite that situation, but we will be within the niche we define... if we meet our goals. If we don't, we shouldn't even start making or selling anything.
I'll bet you agree with that much.
PS: I am also a fanatic about simplicity and low part count (especially simplicity). In some cases I've knocked that ball out of the park in into orbit in the past. With this project, I don't yet see the opportunity to excel that far, but we should at least be able to KISS (keep it simple, stupid).
I would focus on a low cost feeder design. The machines core motion is relatively easy. A feeder scheme that can handle a very wide variety of parts with high-reliability and still be low cost will be key. I do have a number of practical ideas (based on real concepts that I have already designed and built for other projects) to build a machine with very high feeder count, accuracy, and low cost to deal with low volume / high mix / fine pitch / low-modest speed. I have read a lot of 'overthinking' in this thread so far, the only way to get a low cost machine is by examining the real everyday issues and creating the simplest solutions possible to solve them in order of importance. Every nut, bolt, camera, connector, servo, etc adds to the challenge. Part presentation from the feeders is super important since the feeders are duplicated so many times on any given setup.
Yes, from my reading, feeders are a crucial part of the project. For example, they are a significant portion of the cost if I buy an LE40V from ddmnovastar. And I've read lots of complaints about feeder costs and feeder reliability over the past couple years.
I am hoping our machine can ALSO (not the common case) support that portion of our "target market" who makes [usually] small PCBs with small to modest quantities of only a few components on each PCB...
BUT... wants to start adopting the latest, greatest tiny and/or fine-pitch components. I sorta see this as a sub-niche that might be called "super-hobbyist" or for some nano-company to make higher-end "super-hobbyist products" (better, more capable, more flexible, or more elaborate than sparkfun or pololu PCBs).
I agree about what you say regarding feeders. Without making the lower-end of our "target market" burdened with anything huge or complex, I would never-the-less love to be able to support a large variety of feeders, and even for the operator to be setting up feeders for the next job while the current job runs. Though, if we find a way to support an insane number of feeders, that becomes less important. Only a total moron of an engineer would not adopt the same caps, resistors and common components for all his PCBs without a damn good reason, so I have to assume only 50% of feeders on the current job would typically need to be changed for the next job (plus or minus 25%).
I have a couple seriously unique ideas about feeders that will definitely need a mind with feeder experience to brainstorm with me. One of them that has a LOT of benefits more-or-less assumes (to an extent, though not rigidly) that all of each component is placed before other components are placed. Ask me further about that later, either in text here, or in a skype or phone conversation.
My current line of business is totally unrelated and it would require a career change to do anything with that. I have done a LOT of contract work in the past where my employers pay me by the hour to give up all of my concepts and ideas and they have literally made many 10's of $millions. That is my motivation to design my own products and get the upside benefit. My contract employers from the past essentially had the development capital and sales chain to take advantage of my ideas/designs/engineering/and implementations. These were great learning opportunities and I am grateful to have been able to see how a product goes from zero to hero. I am now saving all of my IP until a I can engage in a business opportunity that has an upside benefit. My eyes are always open to a new opportunity, but it has to be significantly better than the path I am currently on.
I totally understand. One instance of my IP could make me billions of dollars... easy and without question. But I'd have to sell it to a government or military (or their contractor), and shortly thereafter (a few months or years) 99% of humans would be gone. But the technology has an equally if not more awesome potential for advancement and benevolent application (which would also assure that disaster can never happen once someone else figures this technology out). The fallout of that is that I haven't gotten investment, because those with a few million or more to spend always want control of the technology more than the benefits. I went around in circles with Steve Jobs about this when he was still breathing. Turns out, it might have saved his life. I'm sure 99% of people with an opportunity to become a billionaire would jump at the chance no matter what the consequences. I'm one of the few that riches alone will not sway, especially in the face of such extreme consequences. But... now I've gotten way too far off topic.
What I wanted to ask is this. Do you have to eject what you're doing totally out the airlock to work on a project like this... when you have one or two other collaborators with talents, abilities and expertise in the same ballpark as you?
With that said - I am scared of going down the path of building machines with huge BOM counts and complex supply chains. Right now, I see more success in simpler projects (for me personally).
Yes, in general I favor smaller projects too. Unfortunately, my "ultimate project" (mentioned above) isn't tiny. It does involve a few rather independent subsystems that can be products. One of those may not be too huge or expensive, but requires javascript, a language that drives me nuts, and I am thus not efficient on. So I'll probably subcontract that one out. But the other subsystems are not quite in the category of "simple"... though most of them do tend to be simple to extremely simple mechanically. One of these is an advanced "robotics vision system", which is mostly just a fancy term for a small, simple, compact, rugged camera that performs a small to modest amount of very specific and extremely crucial image processing (of sorts) in "hardware" (largely in the FPGA, actually) inside the camera... and sends super-crucial information about each image in the video stream to the PC (along with the uncompressed or lossless compressed image).[/font]