Be careful with quoted delivery dates

[peter-h]

I've just ordered a load of chips from one mfg, which sells direct. Not a small order, either...

They quoted a delivery date in July. I placed the order.

Turns out they had them in stock and the longish lead time was quoted to get people to place orders.

It is one of the tricks mfgs and distis use to maintain demand, in the face of the bubble having collapsed, to delay the inevitable bloodbath.

It is a hassle because we now have to pay 2 months sooner... they even nicely backdated the order to 31st May, the day before the order was processed

I contacted them - hard to do since they communicate only via support tickets - and they pretend that the parts came into stock because somebody cancelled. It so happens I got screenshots showing "July" over a few days, so this is a policy, not an accident

Be careful to specify delivery dates...

[asmi]

LOL this is the first time ever I see someone complaining about getting their order FASTER than expected... I fail to understand how can longer lead time can possibly lead to more orders.
One REALLY can't please everybody.

[Monkeh]

LOL this is the first time ever I see someone complaining about getting their order FASTER than expected... I fail to understand how can longer lead time can possibly lead to more orders.

If something is readily in stock, people will just order it whenever they get around to it. If there's a lead time, they'll get the order in early to secure their slice of the pie.

Imagine if you ordered, say, 40 tonnes of concrete blocks for your building project, and they turned up six weeks early, when all you have is a bare patch of ground with no foundations and no equipment on site. If you're going to give someone a delivery time, you should mean it.

[peter-h]

Exactly.

Especially as I delayed delivery of other parts to July

If this was some cheap thing I would not care but it is $5000. If you ignore your cash flow and order 5k here and 5k there, you soon have to pay out 50k months too soon.

The electronics business (I've been in it since 1978) has always worked as follows:

- prices gradually fall
- eventually they fall too far
- the sales reps go out and spread the dreaded a-word (allocation)
- everybody panics and places orders for way more than they need (allocation means no dely dates are quoted, so you have to move fast to get into the queue)
- prices go up, often 10x
- eventually the pipeline is all delivered and everybody is sitting on tons of stock (some gets offloaded to the 2nd level cowboy distis, which everybody hates because nobody likes to take a hit on the writedown)
- there is a bloodbath, sales reps have collected their bonuses and go to other jobs
- the cycle repeats

The covid bubble was deeper and longer than any before but we are now around stage 6. Parts are being shipped, suddenly appearing in stock despite dates in late 2023 or even 2024 being "current as of yesterday". Prices are collapsing but mfgs are creating fake shortages to slow down the price collapse.

It stinks, but nothing changes.

Ex stock would help with widely available parts like a LM358, but nowadays most parts are single sourced, and a longer lead time yields more orders and at a higher price.

[thm_w]

What manufacturer? Digikey, Microchip, and I'm sure many others offer order scheduling and lines of credit.
If you are a decent customer there shouldn't be much issue negotiating payment at a future date.

LOL this is the first time ever I see someone complaining about getting their order FASTER than expected... I fail to understand how can longer lead time can possibly lead to more orders.

If something is readily in stock, people will just order it whenever they get around to it. If there's a lead time, they'll get the order in early to secure their slice of the pie.

Imagine if you ordered, say, 40 tonnes of concrete blocks for your building project, and they turned up six weeks early, when all you have is a bare patch of ground with no foundations and no equipment on site. If you're going to give someone a delivery time, you should mean it.

Yeah but this is a small reel of IC's, not construction materials.

[coppice]

I wouldn't trust a delivery date if they put it in quotes. 

It amuses me when you ask about delivery, are told "off the shelf", and when you get an acceptance of order its 6 to 8 weeks. Where exactly is this shelf, and why is it so poorly connected to logistics networks?

[David Aurora]

Element 14 did this to me a couple times recently, absolutely boiled my piss.

As Monkeh said, it's not actually bitching about getting an early delivery, it's about the issues it causes with planning. Not to mention the time you can waste looking for alternative parts/sources when you see a long lead time, or having to explain to customers that the job is going to be delayed, then suddenly having the parts 3 days later and being stuck deciding whether to reschedule jobs again or have the parts collect dust until you find another gap (or until the other things that you need for that job show up if you've planned around a later delivery date).

Once in a while it may be great if a miracle occurs and parts suddenly become available, but generally speaking I think most people in business are spinning a lot of plates and surprises aren't usually welcome.

[thm_w]

Element 14 did this to me a couple times recently, absolutely boiled my piss.

As Monkeh said, it's not actually bitching about getting an early delivery, it's about the issues it causes with planning. Not to mention the time you can waste looking for alternative parts/sources when you see a long lead time, or having to explain to customers that the job is going to be delayed, then suddenly having the parts 3 days later and being stuck deciding whether to reschedule jobs again or have the parts collect dust until you find another gap (or until the other things that you need for that job show up if you've planned around a later delivery date).

Once in a while it may be great if a miracle occurs and parts suddenly become available, but generally speaking I think most people in business are spinning a lot of plates and surprises aren't usually welcome.

Element14 also offers scheduled delivery. I can't be bothered to look into the details, because I don't use the feature, but its there.

[David Aurora]

Element 14 did this to me a couple times recently, absolutely boiled my piss.

As Monkeh said, it's not actually bitching about getting an early delivery, it's about the issues it causes with planning. Not to mention the time you can waste looking for alternative parts/sources when you see a long lead time, or having to explain to customers that the job is going to be delayed, then suddenly having the parts 3 days later and being stuck deciding whether to reschedule jobs again or have the parts collect dust until you find another gap (or until the other things that you need for that job show up if you've planned around a later delivery date).

Once in a while it may be great if a miracle occurs and parts suddenly become available, but generally speaking I think most people in business are spinning a lot of plates and surprises aren't usually welcome.

Element14 also offers scheduled delivery. I can't be bothered to look into the details, because I don't use the feature, but its there.

I'm not sure what that has to do with anything? The issue being discussed is wildly inaccurate delivery estimates that are apparently (but maybe not really) based on low availability. Not whether or not we can schedule delivery of an in stock item 3 months from now.

[thermistor-guy]

...
It is one of the tricks mfgs and distis use to maintain demand, in the face of the bubble having collapsed, to delay the inevitable bloodbath.
...

I think interest rates are playing a role here. If inventory is funded by revolving debt, then the interest on that debt is high and still increasing.

Suppliers have an incentive to clear that inventory (and debt) as soon as possible. Especially as we head into a global economic downturn.

So this trick makes financial sense. Suppliers need the cash flow - they want to bill you as soon as possible, for their own sakes.

[thm_w]

I'm not sure what that has to do with anything? The issue being discussed is wildly inaccurate delivery estimates that are apparently (but maybe not really) based on low availability. Not whether or not we can schedule delivery of an in stock item 3 months from now.

If the problem is low availability, and you want to secure the parts, and yet still not pay for them... I don't know what you can do other than negotiating a longer credit time (Net60+).

But in terms of purchase agreements directly from the manufacturer, its normal to have deliveries scheduled for specific dates. If its a one-off buy maybe that is not possible.

[David Aurora]

I'm not sure what that has to do with anything? The issue being discussed is wildly inaccurate delivery estimates that are apparently (but maybe not really) based on low availability. Not whether or not we can schedule delivery of an in stock item 3 months from now.

If the problem is low availability, and you want to secure the parts, and yet still not pay for them... I don't know what you can do other than negotiating a longer credit time (Net60+).

But in terms of purchase agreements directly from the manufacturer, its normal to have deliveries scheduled for specific dates. If its a one-off buy maybe that is not possible.

Again- that's not what this conversation is about. Are you actually reading along here?

[thm_w]

Again- that's not what this conversation is about. Are you actually reading along here?

So do you have some proof that "mfgs are creating fake shortages to slow down the price collapse."? Or is this just pure speculation.

[David Aurora]

Again- that's not what this conversation is about. Are you actually reading along here?

So do you have some proof that "mfgs are creating fake shortages to slow down the price collapse."? Or is this just pure speculation.

Wasn't my post that claimed it, even though it seems plausible. Yet again, you're barking up the wrong tree in this thread.

[peter-h]

I should have specified a deliver date of say 10th July, but I trusted the company to not be lying about their quoted delivery date.

(specifying earlier, say 5th July, can be used to generate a 30th June dated invoice, by pretending that 5 days were needed for shipping)

Also the way they dealt with it afterwards (obvious lies) suggests that I was right about this being a policy/strategy.

The problem is that this form does not communicate in a normal manner e.g. no phone contact is possible. I will post the name but right now I am waiting to see what happens.

So do you have some proof that "mfgs are creating fake shortages to slow down the price collapse."

It is standard stuff; happens near the end of each bubble.

[jonpaul]

We quote our customers stock and lead time eg  6..10  weeks ARO.

Our T&C of sales state these are estimates.

The customer PO can specify "delivery window -3 +3 days " for the allowed variation in delivery date.

Jon

[sinewave]

I often schedule shipments for Digi-Key and they will occasionally not follow the scheduled shipment date which is quite annoying considering that I then have to pay within 30 days of the invoice instead of later in the year as I had scheduled.

[SMTech]

I often schedule shipments for Digi-Key and they will occasionally not follow the scheduled shipment date which is quite annoying considering that I then have to pay within 30 days of the invoice instead of later in the year as I had scheduled.

Almost every supplier will play the ship it so it sneaks into an earlier billing period trick, often when they need to massage some numbers in a bad month. doesn't mean you have to take it lying down and pay to those terms tho'.

There are some manufacturers however who clearly have no idea what's going on with their stock or scheduling. I'd call out Microchip here, very poor at communication, many products have ludicrous rolling lead times of 52+ weeks even now and they can ship your backorders without warning.

Following the crowd in straying form the OPs theory (I'm not sure I believe it), those of you are UK based will find backorders and scheduled ordering from RS, do not work. That stock will come in, get listed and ship to direct web sales before they backfill. They have poorly functioning manual systems that try and fix this (they ship or your scheduled and backorders to a regional store to hide it form the warehouse  :'() but they also don't work well and are monumentally inflexible. Until supplies return to normal across a greater range of product types, we all have to live with shit service.

[peter-h]

Just spoke to a UK disti who basically agreed this is going on.

Underneath the price supporting measures, prices are collapsing.

I revisited this
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-is-chipageddon-affecting-you/msg4672315/#msg4672315
and Mouser have suddenly got rid of nearly all of the ~80k pieces. It is fairly obvious they were not just sold, not at that price. They probably flogged them to one of the cowboy resellers in the US. One of them has just quoted me $6 for 5k.

[TomS_]

but I trusted the company to not be lying about their quoted delivery date.

If someone cancels their appointment at a hospital, that means they can bring mine forward. Same basic principal. Does that mean the hospital lied to me about my original appointment date?

[Monkeh]

but I trusted the company to not be lying about their quoted delivery date.

If someone cancels their appointment at a hospital, that means they can bring mine forward. Same basic principal. Does that mean the hospital lied to me about my original appointment date?

But the hospital asks you if that appointment time will work for you, rather than just changing it and then assuming you'll be fine with it.

[peter-h]

There was no cancellation. The delivery time was quoted as mid July for a number of days; probably even now. It was a con, designed to create anxiety.