Author Topic: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?  (Read 98196 times)

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Offline SeanB

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #500 on: August 31, 2022, 01:41:00 pm »
HDD inner track is the fewest sectors, and as you move out as soon as the write speed, consistent with actually allowing the media to store allows you to slip in a single extra sector, you do that, and as you go further out you have more sectors. Not visible, as all of them will be LBA units, and you do not know if you are using the original LBA, or are using one of the spare sectors scattered around, selected to be within the allowable range of motion of the fine track positioning on the head, so that it can be swapped in for a weak sector if needed. Does not affect read speed much, just a single track read, and then quickly move to the next track out, read the spare sector, and carry on with the read and slipstream in the corrected LBA into the stream, with almost nothing other than a single revolution slip in data flow, covered up by the disk buffer of typically 16M.

There is little correlation between LBA and actual position on the disk, it can start at inner or outer, or even scatter them in blocks around the disk, so that each big block is going to be spread over a few platters and heads, with not much seek required. Only critical track is the servo track written on the one platter, which is used to get precision guidance for the other heads, and they in turn are set up to do the first write in the factory with a preset bias, to put down the servo track on the platters. All other follows this servo track, and put the maximum number of sectors per revolution possible per track position on the drive. Faster read and write speed  is harder, currents get higher, and you start to need exotic write methods to make a change in the magnetism on the surface.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #501 on: August 31, 2022, 04:23:54 pm »
When it comes to spinning hard drives can we agree the drive manufactures played many tricks over the past 10-15 years?  My statement was drive manufactures who were claiming to have 15K/20k drives were really spinning them at half the speed 7200/10k and only using half the disk.  I realize now I'm was mistaken, they would only use the outer tracks and implemented zoned recording. With Zoned recording the number of sectors per track increases from the inner track to the outer tracks center track.  Thus the data transfer rate for the outer track is twice as mush as it is for the inner track.  The drive manufactures used this trick and were able to call a 7200 RPM drive a 15K RPM drive or 10k a 20k.

Spinning drive today have about a much computing power as the computer they are in.  The tacks in a modern drive are so close together the data bits stored in one track overlap and interfere with the bits in the adjoining tracks in what is called as shingling (SMR).  Shingling was used in VCRs. Then eError correcting algorithms ensure the data is genuine..

Actual tests performed on spinning disks revealed that data stored on the innermost tracks was in fact rederived faster than the outermost tracks for drives were the sector size was the same. Yes I understand the physics of angular motion that 512 bytes is read from the inner track just as it is from the outer track at the same time.  You can argues all you want that I'm wrong, but those are the results of actual tests,

As for Spinlaunch our expert in the field who posted here says it's not going to work.  I agree...  I think they are going to run out of money before they can get all of the technical issues solved.  And should they ever get the tech solved, it will never be cost effective.






 

Offline Rick Law

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #502 on: August 31, 2022, 05:54:07 pm »
...
And here is a problem; the spin launcher is not just accelerating the payload to a ballistic velocity but, it is also accelerating the counter weight too. So that's double the energy input, double the stress loading? Both 'ends' must detatch symetrically. The payload goes up, which means the counterweight must go down - 180 degrees in phase at the same speed. Otherwise there will be a jolt that's going to break something.
...

This "double the energy input" situation is true even with regular rockets or even jet planes.  Worst for jet planes I must say...

In the case of rocket or jet, it pushes the hot air going backward at high velocity (carrying kinetic energy away) to pushes the jet forward (Newton's Third Law of Motion).  The hot air's kinetic energy is just "wasted" as it stirs the air behind the rocket/plane.  In the case of jet plane, besides contributing to creating deadly wake turbulence, jet blast had caused deaths for the dummies who got too close.

So in both cases, you have half the kinetic energy moving in one direction and the other half the kinetic energy moving in the opposite direction.
 

Offline PlainName

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #503 on: August 31, 2022, 06:47:05 pm »
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In the case of rocket or jet, it pushes the hot air going backward at high velocity (carrying kinetic energy away) to pushes the jet forward

Yeah, I read that and thought "exactly".

But then... I'm not sure it covers spinlaunch. The reaction thrust for spinlaunch isn't the counterweight being let go but the torque applied to the Earth in order to make the rotor spin. Once it's up to speed there is no more thrust (except to cover friction) so it would be like turning off the jet in an aircraft and coasting.

I guess losing the counterweight would be akin to dropping the first stage and boosters of a normal rocket. You've spent all this energy getting them going just to have 'em splash down and waste their share of it.
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #504 on: August 31, 2022, 08:01:25 pm »
After watching a full engineering tour video of spin launch I am going to tone down my scepticism.  There are still many details to work out, but they have credible solutions for many of the problems identified in this thread.   One other factor easing my mind is the 200kg payload in orbit goal which opens a much larger market.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #505 on: August 31, 2022, 09:14:46 pm »
After watching a full engineering tour video of spin launch I am going to tone down my scepticism.  There are still many details to work out, but they have credible solutions for many of the problems identified in this thread.   One other factor easing my mind is the 200kg payload in orbit goal which opens a much larger market.

After watching a full engineering tour video of spin launch I am going to tone down my scepticism.  Care to share what some of the credible solutions they have for some of their problems?
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #506 on: September 01, 2022, 01:25:05 am »
They have what I believe is a feasible airlock system for getting the vehicle out of the vacuum in the launcher.  They have a credible story on vehicle thermal management during atmospheric exit.  The have built and tested appropriate structures and payloads for surviving the g environment.  They are still at risk for financial viability.  There was a lot of handwaving about electrical power.  Easily solved with money, but that is true about much of their system.  Their launch rate is a bit hand wavy, and their methods for dealing with rotor imbalance after launch are sketchy and untested. They are by no means home free but have done more than I thought.
 

Offline Rick Law

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #507 on: September 01, 2022, 05:39:26 pm »
First, my bias:

It has not been the launching system's technical feasibility that I doubted, it is the business (financial) viability that I consider an impossible dream.

They can engineer away all the issues on the launching system at great cost.  The electronics (PCB) is but a very small part of a satellite.  Each and every little thing inside the satellite needs to be strengthen mechanically.  The cost to design and assemble in high-g tolerance necessary for each and every payload will make customer as rare as hen's teeth.

Second, the airlock (and related):

Unless you saw a different video.  The membrane (vacuum seal at vehicle exit) I doubt it will be as clean as they imagine when scaled to the 100 meter at 450 RPM for the "production" version.  The problem will be the parts broken off the membrane as the payload vehicle punched through.  They will need a good and very fast way to re-shield the spinner housing from those debris.  Air will be rushing into this vacuum (spinner housing) carrying the debris into the chamber at extreme speed.  A large object (the spinning wheel) is moving at > mach 6 at the edge.  Collision between the spinning wheel assembly with debris will make a good light show.

I am not sure what level of vacuum they will manage when scaled.  Concorde flew at > 50,000 feet, and metal heating up was a problem.  If they can create a vacuum eqv to 50,000 feet altitude for the chamber:  Parts of the wheel  at around 1/3 radius from the rotational center would be traveling at about mach 2 (similar to Concorde).  So at or about that point, their heat problem will exceed that of what the Concorde must deal with for their spinning wheel (which course can be much heavier since it is not flying), and it get worst when > 1/3 R.  So they need a much better heat resistance wheel and/or a much better vacuum.  Either way, that rapid decompression would be interesting to see.  Their decompression event would be much stronger than being in say an A320 or 767 being rapidly decompressed at 35,000 feet.

Yeah, one can engineer a door to close immediately after the launch vehicle passed the launch tube.  But these are the kinds of problem that they will see every step of the development.  Everything that was "no big deal" will become a huge problem (both in $ and difficulty) when they scaled to their machine to production level.

Technically possible, but it will take lots of $.  More $ = less customers.  Once the $ is > than savings from traditional rocket launch, their customer count drops to zero.
 
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #508 on: September 01, 2022, 06:21:45 pm »
Does some have am answer for this?  When they open the doors, (I was told they are using door and not a membrane as shown in the promo video) won't atmospheric air replace the vacuum?  Seems to me that sudden blast of air is going to 1 - Greatly slow the projectile down, 2 - Cause a sudden and rapid change in temperature for projectile, 3 - As the projectile travels through earth's atmosphere it's going to get very hot like when satellites/space shuttle re-enters earth's atmosphere, and 4 - Cause a sonic bomb.

The other question I have is once released, how to they intend on "steering" the projectile to get it in the correct orbit?  Once the projectile is released I would think differences in atmospheric air pressure/winds aloft would alter the trajectory.

I still think the force difference across the skin of the project is going to cause the skin of the projectile to buckle.

This is not my area of expertise, but I did take a physics calls and understand forces and what happens to materials at high forces and temperatures.
 

Offline PlainName

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #509 on: September 01, 2022, 06:47:52 pm »
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Does some have am answer for this?

You could watch the video, which has all the answers and more.

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When they open the doors, (I was told they are using door and not a membrane as shown in the promo video) won't atmospheric air replace the vacuum?

It's an airlock. That is, inner and outer doors. The inner door closes as the projectile passes then the outer opens.

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Seems to me that sudden blast of air is going to 1 - Greatly slow the projectile down

Probably. Got to hit the air at some point, though, so it's just a matter of when and where.

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2 - Cause a sudden and rapid change in temperature for projectile

Yes, but they are using a solid copper nose to spread the heat, and it's not going to stay in the air long enough for the heat to affect the inside.

Quote
4 - Cause a sonic bomb

You mean boom, presumably. No doubt.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #510 on: September 01, 2022, 07:17:49 pm »
Quote
Does some have am answer for this?

You could watch the video, which has all the answers and more.


Quote
When they open the doors, (I was told they are using door and not a membrane as shown in the promo video) won't atmospheric air replace the vacuum?

It's an airlock. That is, inner and outer doors. The inner door closes as the projectile passes then the outer opens.

Quote
Seems to me that sudden blast of air is going to 1 - Greatly slow the projectile down

Probably. Got to hit the air at some point, though, so it's just a matter of when and where.

Quote
2 - Cause a sudden and rapid change in temperature for projectile

Yes, but they are using a solid copper nose to spread the heat, and it's not going to stay in the air long enough for the heat to affect the inside.

Quote
4 - Cause a sonic bomb

You mean boom, presumably. No doubt.


If the video provided the answers I and everyone else in this tread wouldn't be asking.

Double lock door?  How can they open the doors fast enough with the projectile at Mach 2?  Then there's that massive inrush of air.  There's that story of the pilot who was sucked out of window after the window popped out during a flight.  The crew was hanging on to his legs for the rest of the flight.  Similar story with a Southwest flight except it was a passenger.  She was sucked out, and did not survive and that was only at Mach .7 or so.

You tell me/us to watch the video saying it has ALL of the answers.  If it does, and I guessing you have watched it, why can't you answer all of the questions I posted.

 

Offline PlainName

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #511 on: September 01, 2022, 09:39:45 pm »
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If the video provided the answers I and everyone else in this tread wouldn't be asking.

Did you watch it? I guess not, otherwise you wouldn't be asking about the things.

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If it does, and I guessing you have watched it, why can't you answer all of the questions I posted.

1. I did for a lot, and gave the source so you could check for yourself.

2. You don't believe me anyway.

3. Why should I waste my time when you don't want to learn?

If it were just one thing then an explanation would be OK, but you're ignoring the answers already given for the same things, often repetitively. Any reasonable person would think "Gosh, the answers to all my questions are in that video. Maybe it's worth watching then." Particularly since someone previously sceptical has watched it and moderated their opinion. Instead you seem to prefer to perpetuate your misconceptions and demand to be told something you're going to dispute anyway.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2022, 09:41:44 pm by dunkemhigh »
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #512 on: September 02, 2022, 12:35:24 am »
Does some have am answer for this?  When they open the doors, (I was told they are using door and not a membrane as shown in the promo video) won't atmospheric air replace the vacuum?  Seems to me that sudden blast of air is going to 1 - Greatly slow the projectile down, 2 - Cause a sudden and rapid change in temperature for projectile, 3 - As the projectile travels through earth's atmosphere it's going to get very hot like when satellites/space shuttle re-enters earth's atmosphere, and 4 - Cause a sonic bomb.

The other question I have is once released, how to they intend on "steering" the projectile to get it in the correct orbit?  Once the projectile is released I would think differences in atmospheric air pressure/winds aloft would alter the trajectory.

I still think the force difference across the skin of the project is going to cause the skin of the projectile to buckle.

This is not my area of expertise, but I did take a physics calls and understand forces and what happens to materials at high forces and temperatures.

1.  They actually have a series of doors.  All but the last are open until the projectile goes by.  They shut extremely fast.  They showed it happening in the video.  I didn't count frames, but it was substantially closed in a second or less and bouncing ended within three.  These doors are intended to limit the amount of air getting into the spin chamber, so a a couple of seconds of leakage isn't super critical.  By the way, the pressure in the spin chamber is held to 0.01 Torr, which I believe is equivalent to well over 200,000 ft.  The Concorde example is not applicable.   The purpose of the doors is twofold.  It keeps the spin tank in high vacuum for two reasons.  To avoid drag, heating and aerodynamic problems with the spinning tether.   And to avoid the time and cost of pumping back down to the moderately low pressure they need.

2.  The air coming into the last door is at one atmosphere.  Hence the fastest it can come in is Mach 1.  Which doesn't make a huge difference in the relative projectile velocity. The extra heating that comes from this just lasts for the transit time of the exit tube, which at their project velocities is on the order of 10 mSec. 

3.  Their test video shows pretty massive pitch and yaw rates due to conservation of angular momentum and details of the release process, and possible some wind effects from the in rushing air.  But the center of pressure of the projectile is far aft of the center of mass so their are massive restoring forces.  The large area of the tail fins provides high damping.  The upshot is these issues seem manageable.

3.  They spend quite a bit of time in the video on their thermal management approach.  Basically the tip is made of copper and is followed by a massive aluminum heat sink.  The tip does heat to red heat temperatures with somewhat lower temperatures in the aluminum heat sink.  The heating drops rapidly during flight due to the projectile slowing and atmosphere thinning.  About the time all of this heat is starting to encroach on the second stage the whole outer assembly is discarded, taking all of the heat with it.  Proof will be in the pudding but the models look correct.

4.  Orbit is achieved with a conventional second stage rocket.  The guidance package in this will take out any errors in the ballistic trajectory.  One can only guess if they have budgeted the right amount of propellant for this, but again no laws of physics are broken.

5.  They have built a centrifuge which achieves the expected g loadings.  And have tested many representative components and claim to have successfully hardened them for survival.  Photos imply that they have tested components that worried me, such a batteries and they spent a few minutes describing a credible approach to hardening the momentum wheels used for pointing.  This includes the skins you are concerned about.

6.  Their approach to sonic boom is to put their launcher out in some desert where no one cares.  This is in conflict with their need to have access to quite a few megawatts of electrical power to spin up their launcher.


They were very coy about some of the hard parts of the design, claiming proprietary interests but overall they seem to be approaching the problems properly and have solve many.  And they are very cavalier about the unbalance on release problem, with just outline sketches of solutions.   For those interested in spending 45 minutes here is the link to the video I watched.



I totally agree with Rick Law that economic viability is in real question and it is hard to tell whether they have solved half of their tough problems or 90%. 

For Doug Spindler, you don't really understand physics until you put actual numbers against a problem.  And an appropriate model.  In the airline cases, people were not sucked out of a window, but blown out due to the higher internal pressure.  You can actually estimate pressure differences knowing that cabins are usually pressurized to 8000 ft altitude and using either window area or body area to compute force.  Of course in the pilots case once his torso was outside there are also drag forces involved.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2022, 12:58:31 am by CatalinaWOW »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #513 on: September 02, 2022, 02:35:35 am »
I appreciate you reply  Sucked out, vs blown out I guess depends on you point of reference.  And does it really matter?  in both cases the pilot and passenger were both no longer inside the plane.  I watched this video about Spinlaunch which answers a few of my questions.  Intensely some of the questions you answered Spinlauch is saying is highly proprietary and would not be shared.

Spinlaunch is saying they will be launching 10 ton projectiles.
For Spinlaunch to work they will have to create the single strongest tensile strength structure on earth.
They goal is to launch a 10 ton projectile by spinning it at 7.5 time per second at a diameter of 90 meters resulting in force 10,000 times it's weight. That would be 10 tons times 10,000 or 100,000 tons.  That would be the weith of 182 fully loaded Falcon 8 rockets.

Instead of a counterweight, their plan is to launch a equal weight second satellite in half a turn.  Not sure how the doors at that speed are going to be able to open and close that quickly.

I think the video is a bit misleading when they said the physics checks out and say they have proprietary technology.  Isn't that similar to the line Elizabeth Holmes would repeat over and over? 

In the end, it's all going to comedown to will the money run out before they solve the technical issues.
 


   


 
 

Online EEVblog

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #514 on: September 02, 2022, 03:13:21 am »
In the end, it's all going to comedown to will the money run out before they solve the technical issues.

My almost zero mechanical knowledge money is on them encountering so many issues that no amount of money will save it.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #515 on: September 02, 2022, 04:47:07 am »
In the end, it's all going to comedown to will the money run out before they solve the technical issues.

My almost zero mechanical knowledge money is on them encountering so many issues that no amount of money will save it.

You really think they are going to run into a lot of technical issues trying to spin the weight of 182 fully loaded Falcon 8 rockets in a 90 meter circle at 7.5 times per second?  Extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence or an Elizebeth Holmes type of person saying the solution we developed is a trade secret and we can’t show it.
   
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #516 on: September 02, 2022, 08:12:39 pm »
It's almost 100% certain to fail. Accelerating a 10-ton payload at 10,000 g + ? Sure. And if my aunt had a pair... ;D

The video I saw didn't help - I think it actually confirmed it was just yet another startup with people having mastered a certain art of bullshitting while looking smart.
They did *appear* to address most of the hard questions, which is why some people have gotten reassured that they seem to know what they are doing. Well, they have just done their homework to anticipate the obvious questions from investors that they were bound to have to answer. But they never gave any clear and tangible answer - all it shows is that they have cared to identify the questions. Which I guess is better than nothing, but I can also identify a ton of hard questions that, if answered, would give us technology to travel near lightspeed. Will I get tens of millions with that and a professional-looking video?
 

Offline PlainName

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #517 on: September 02, 2022, 08:37:51 pm »
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people having mastered a certain art of bullshitting while looking smart

Would have helped if the technical lead looked a bit older than 18 :)
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #518 on: September 02, 2022, 08:45:23 pm »
Quote
people having mastered a certain art of bullshitting while looking smart

Would have helped if the technical lead looked a bit older than 18 :)

How old was Elizabeth Holmes, Trevor Milton, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs when they stated their bullshit careers?  And some of that bullshit turned into some real money.
 

Offline fourfathom

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #519 on: September 02, 2022, 08:53:11 pm »
Would have helped if the technical lead looked a bit older than 18 :)

I'm an old geezer, but this isn't fair.  I've known some incredibly capable 18-25-year olds.
We'll search out every place a sick, twisted, solitary misfit might run to! -- I'll start with Radio Shack.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #520 on: September 02, 2022, 09:07:29 pm »
Would have helped if the technical lead looked a bit older than 18 :)

I'm an old geezer, but this isn't fair.  I've known some incredibly capable 18-25-year olds.

Look at the TV shows/videos the "kdis" are watching today they are all about making a lot of money without doing any work or bullshitting.  But isn't this what politicians and religious leaders have been doing for centuries?  Even when these people get exposed as fraudsters, they seem to be able to resurect themselves and make/conning people out of millions again.  Remember the bullshit Profit Peter Popoff?





 

Offline PlainName

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #521 on: September 02, 2022, 09:08:00 pm »
Wasn't meant to be fair. Meant to be a joke.  :palm:
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #522 on: September 02, 2022, 09:49:14 pm »
Quote
people having mastered a certain art of bullshitting while looking smart

Would have helped if the technical lead looked a bit older than 18 :)

How old was Elizabeth Holmes, Trevor Milton, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs when they stated their bullshit careers?  And some of that bullshit turned into some real money.

Well uh. I'm sorry but you can't mix the two first with the two last. Even Bill Gates that I do not like very much, especially since he quit executive functions at MS and started becoming a weirdo, you can't call that a bullshit career. Both Bill Gates and Steve Jobs shaped desktop computing, and the latter introduced GUIs to the masses first, and then shaped what the mobile industry would become. Bullshit? Uh.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #523 on: September 02, 2022, 10:39:23 pm »
Quote
people having mastered a certain art of bullshitting while looking smart

Would have helped if the technical lead looked a bit older than 18 :)

How old was Elizabeth Holmes, Trevor Milton, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs when they stated their bullshit careers?  And some of that bullshit turned into some real money.

Well uh. I'm sorry but you can't mix the two first with the two last. Even Bill Gates that I do not like very much, especially since he quit executive functions at MS and started becoming a weirdo, you can't call that a bullshit career. Both Bill Gates and Steve Jobs shaped desktop computing, and the latter introduced GUIs to the masses first, and then shaped what the mobile industry would become. Bullshit? Uh.

One can easily say that today, but what about when they were just starting out?  Turn the clock back to when Gates/Allen and Jobbs were starting out.  Gates/Allen were selling something to IBM they had never tested and did know for sure if it would work and Jobbs was doing the same.  At the time all of these people were considered bullshit artists as are many if not all of the companies in Silicon Valley when they stated out.  I will say EH was full of shit from day one.  Professors at Sandford told her what she was thought she could do was impossible from a physics/chemistry/biochemistry point of view.  But she's part of that generation, "If you can believe it, you can achieve it" generation.  Trevor Miltion on the other was just your typical con-man who could tell a good business story.  Dip shits at GM were $2 billon BELEIVERS in Trevor's story.


 

Offline Nusa

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Re: Spinlaunch... Can it succeed?
« Reply #524 on: September 03, 2022, 09:30:41 pm »
When it comes to spinning hard drives can we agree the drive manufactures played many tricks over the past 10-15 years?  My statement was drive manufactures who were claiming to have 15K/20k drives were really spinning them at half the speed 7200/10k and only using half the disk.

We can agree that many techniques have been tried over the years, but we do not agree that 15K drives were fake news. I suspect you've watched some conspiracy videos and are now repeating it. But if you want to cite sources to convince us otherwise, feel free. In any case, the niche market that expensive 15K drives served is now claimed by SSD drives with higher performance.
 


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