Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

As has been mentioned already, the amount each of us pays for the entire space program is miniscule, it's an insignificant drop in the bucket and not worth getting irritated over. Less than $40 a year for the average American anyway, not sure about other countries. People blow more than that on a single night at the bar.

And - importantly - the money spent does not magically disappear. It moves, jobs are created, people are fed and ultimately some of it ends up in the public coffers again..

Yes, that's very Keynesian.

[Tepe]

And - importantly - the money spent does not magically disappear. It moves, jobs are created, people are fed and ultimately some of it ends up in the public coffers again..

That argument would also serve nicely in a campaign to recommit the complete "space" budget to folk dance festivals.

That doesn't make it less true. When you make a purchase the money doesn't vanish into thin air.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Of course, it goes into somebody's pocket.

[Tepe]

Of couse, it goes into somebody's pocket.

Exactly! Is that a problem? It won't stay there forever.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Yes, it's a problem. An 18 trillion $ problem in the USA.

[ruffy91]

And were do the $$$ go? Fort knox?

[CatalinaWOW]

Interesting how much vitriol against space.  It seems to be a pocketbook issue.  Even if those who are against are correct and it is a complete waste of money, the money wasted is going more to engineers and technicians than most of the other complete wastes of money that can be identified.   Eliminating space funding is likely to result in less money in technical folks pockets.

So go ahead, rail against one of the few Dilbert benefiting boondoggles around.  It won't make you richer.

[wraper]

Yes, it's a problem. An 18 trillion $ problem in the USA.

And NASA does not affect even 1% of that problem.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Some of that great excess of spending (public debt) goes or has gone to your pocket as salary? Good for you. But now we have to pay it, not you (unless you believe in overunity). So that's not good for me/us. I hope you can understand that.

[apis]

To be a truly independent civilisation you need the ability to manufacture *everything* we take for granted now.
Advanced electronics, advanced materials, even relatively simple materials like plastics, and that's just for starters.
Were does all this magically come from?
If you sit down and make a list of stuff you's have on a mars base, and the vast mining, transportation, and manufacturing infrastructure required here on earth to produce them, you'd be shocked.
It's taken us hundreds of years here on earth to get the point we are at now.

Yes, as an absolute minimum you have to be able to recreate every essential piece of the base. If you need a replacement circuit board you can't just order new parts from digikey. You have to literally recreate every single part out of martian rock. Just imagine all the equipment needed just to get ore out of the ground. What would be needed in terms of factories and equipment and expertise to get a new colony started is absolutely mind boggling, and all of that would have to be shipped from earth.

If anything could work financially, and in the hearts and minds of the people, it's a moon base. People can look up and see the moons surface and think about the people up there, and maybe dream of going in their retirement, or as a scientist etc. You don't get that same dream with mars, it's not visible enough.
A Mars colony would be super cool, but I always doubt it's viability.

Who wouldn't want to go to the moon for a few days at least once in their life! (Well, the same could be said about Mars but a mars trip would take years). A moon base would also be useful for astronomy and as a stepping stone for probes headed further into the solar system. It could also be useful as a base of operations for detecting and deflecting asteroids that might hit earth, as well as potential attempts at mining asteroids for valuable resources. (And for those who insist on going to Mars, a moon base would be a logical first step.)

Artemis is being made into a movie, can't wait! 
It'll be really interesting to see a large colonised style moon tourist base on the big screen.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/culture/movies/a22238110/artemis-andy-weir-movie-treatment/

yay, listening to Artemis now.

[ebastler]

Interesting how much vitriol against space.  It seems to be a pocketbook issue.  Even if those who are against are correct and it is a complete waste of money, the money wasted is going more to engineers and technicians than most of the other complete wastes of money that can be identified.   Eliminating space funding is likely to result in less money in technical folks pockets.

So go ahead, rail against one of the few Dilbert benefiting boondoggles around.  It won't make you richer.

Yes, you might call it a "pocketbook issue". I can think of many areas where (more) public money could be spent with the goal of making life on Earth better: health care and life science research, future energy supply, robust food supply for the whole world, ... 

Engineering and technology plays a big role in all of these fields, so I would not be concerned about the unemployment rate of this forum's membership if these areas were to get a bigger piece of the pie.

[CatalinaWOW]

Health care, life science, robust food supply?  All have dramatically improved over the last two centuries.  With the result that we have bred more of us very successfully.  And not necessarily made things better here on earth.

While I have not personally made a dime working on space ventures, I would rather see money go that way than to make it possible for 16 or 25 billion of us to live on earth.

[MT]

Paper Science report tax money founded European Space Agency’s Mars Express spacecraft found lake under ice sheet
on Mars! If US of A and it's tax money founded fun house Pentagon hadent bombed away 21 trillion USD we had already been on Mars growing potatoes!

[EEVblog]

Who wouldn't want to go to the moon for a few days at least once in their life! (Well, the same could be said about Mars but a mars trip would take years).

And that's the show shopper. Almost no one if going to willingly take several years of their life (most of it in complete boredom just getting there and back) to go to the Mars.

Imagine if colonies existed right now on Mars and the Moon. One is a 21 months round trip minimum, the other is a week or two round trip and you could easily spend more time on surface than travelling.
One has no view of earth, the other has an awesome view of the Earth so you can block it out with your thumb and take Earth selfies.
Which one is a tourist going to pick? (assuming Mars does not have three boobed hookers)

yay, listening to Artemis now.

The story and dialog is kinda cringe-worthy, but it creates an awesome mental image and sense of what a moon colony would be like.
I think it's ideal to be made into a movie.

[MT]

What are you even talking about?

Besides you not knowing where the 21 trillion went, you also deny you have no idea what US mercenaries doing in Afghanistan!

So I admire people who are willing to serve their country, so what? Nowhere did I mention that I approve of what our military gets used for or the people sending the orders.

Deliberately contradiction you make , mercenaries defending country=dont approve what mercenaries used for= scratches oligarch back! Your not a american patriot! Real patriots embrace the constitution and lives by it! Shame upon United Snakes of Americho who commit perjury to some of it's own 27 amendments!

Calm down and take a deep breath, you're reading far more into what I said than I put there.

Im not calming down, im breathing up by inhaling hydrogen, like when US politicians do when the Iran issue is on the desk!
Just look at the ancient Persians, they build superb rockets, soon they go to Mars in the name of Mohammed the great
and 13 virgins!

Anyhow, i recall there was substance, helium 3 i think it was that didnt exist on earth but lots of it on the Moon
and some investors wanted to mine that, people protest the Moon could vanish and so then tide and ebb on earth ,etc!

[Nusa]

It exists on earth, it's just not easy to get in quantity. Currently, our largest source of Helium-3 is from decaying Tritium (12.5 year half-life) in nuclear weapons stockpiles. Tritium itself is rare and expensive to make and we're not making it like we did during the cold war, so that source is getting smaller with time.

[Brumby]

Some of that great excess of spending (public debt) goes or has gone to your pocket as salary? Good for you. But now we have to pay it, not you (unless you believe in overunity). So that's not good for me/us. I hope you can understand that.

Your mention of overunity is a rather interesting one, especially when it comes to the economics of the situation.  While I'm not an economist, the concept of financial multipliers is one I've understood for many, many years.  When someone is paid for something, they don't sit on all the money.  They might save a bit, but most will get spent - and the recipients of that spending will do likewise - as will the recipients of that spending .... and so on and so forth.

So, for every dollar spent up front, there will be multiple uses of that money which increases the activity of the economy by more than that single dollar.  That first spending of that dollar may well be a cause for discussion - but it is the subsequent spending that is crucial to the survival of an economy.

Maybe someone with the knowledge can offer a number to the question: For every dollar spent on various Space programs, how many dollars of economic activity are generated?

[wraper]

Some of that great excess of spending (public debt) goes or has gone to your pocket as salary? Good for you. But now we have to pay it, not you (unless you believe in overunity). So that's not good for me/us. I hope you can understand that.

Overunity is one of the main features of money. Why do you think inflation exists? Because new money is created out of thin air and dilutes existing money. Not to say, there is more money existing than all goods you could buy with it.

[Eka]

For every dollar spent on various Space programs, how many dollars of economic activity are generated?

I think for the Apollo programs it was calculated at $3-5 in economic turnover in the economy for every dollar spent on the program, which is similar to scientific research expenditures. Military back then was just $2-3 at best after Vietnam ended. In war time it is lower. SS retirement payment, and general gov expenditures were running $4-7. $6-7 for SS disability and food assistance payments. The poorer you are the higher percentage you spend locally, and the faster you spend it. With greater foreign trade in the picture, lower effective retail wages, and more non locally owned stores like WalMart, Target, Lowes, and Gap stores, the numbers are lower now because more ends up much faster in the pockets of rich people, or traveling abroad. These are at the latest '83 numbers from back when I studied economics last. I'm not sure if they are still calculated and published by the government. PS, a dollar earned by a multimillionaire has a return ratio of much less than $2. At a certain point the more you earn, the less spendable it becomes, and chasing stocks with those extra $ has near no incremental add to the economy. Neither does the purchase of luxury goods like yachts and very expensive cars.

[Eka]

So is your vision of it being impractical/impossible to colonize Mars and space.

Those that do, try, try, and try again until they succeed. That video of all the landing failures is those tries before success. Now they routinely land them. The fact that you don't have the motivation anymore is an issue with you, not Elon Musk and crew.

At least I hope you understand you're paying for all those gigantic altruist (not) efforts, even though nobody asked if you wanted to pay them or not. That's what irritates me most.

Your country's public debt is ~= $18036300000000 (not counting interests). You are the public.

PS, it would be much much more expensive if the government did the work it's self.
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20170008895.pdf
SpaceX is saving the government big dollars.

[Echo88]

@ George: How do you pay for the space program in the US as a Pole?

[In Vacuo Veritas]

And - importantly - the money spent does not magically disappear. It moves, jobs are created, people are fed and ultimately some of it ends up in the public coffers again..

That argument would also serve nicely in a campaign to recommit the complete "space" budget to folk dance festivals.

Yes, I'm sure we could invent an Asteroid Dance to keep the Death Asteroid away.

PS, it would be much much more expensive if the government did the work it's self.
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20170008895.pdf
SpaceX is saving the government big dollars.

1) The word is "itself". Not it is self.
2) SpaceX is standing on the shoulders of the DECADES OF WORK ALREADY DONE BY THE GOVERNMENT. 

Interesting how much vitriol against space.  It seems to be a pocketbook issue.  Even if those who are against are correct and it is a complete waste of money, the money wasted is going more to engineers and technicians than most of the other complete wastes of money that can be identified.   Eliminating space funding is likely to result in less money in technical folks pockets.

So go ahead, rail against one of the few Dilbert benefiting boondoggles around.  It won't make you richer.

There is no vitriol against space. Space is a vacuum, it is inert. I am upset at the cloud-shovelling nerds with their space pseudo-religion earnestly charting out the future of humanity in the galaxy. Guys, Star Trek was fiction. It's just you, me, the Periodic Table of the Elements and the four forces. There are no dilithium crystals, no duranium, no tungsten verteride carbon matrix, no structural integrity fields, no warp drive, no transporters, no replicators, no aliens that look like us, no artificial gravity, no Vulcans, no habitable planets just days away in a magical spaceship that doesn't exist.

By all means, send all the A-type test pilots in diapers to play guitar badly in the ISS and grow tomato seeds in free fall and call it vitally important science. I chuckle.
Keep sending up satellites that point back at Earth because that's were everyone lives.

But when you start thinking that Mars is just a hop and a skip away and how simple it all could be if we just listened to you because you read sci-fi, that's where I draw the line.

Space is huge. Space is dead. Space is hostile. We are here. We are not going anywhere with kerosene and carbon fiber no matter how good our computers get. Sure sure, some military test pilots bounced on the Moon for a few days after the most powerful nation in history worked at it for an entire decade. So what? They came back after a week.

It's over. The future is here and it ain't in space. If it was as simple as the Space Nutters keep telling us then why didn't it happen when everyone and everything was working towards space 50 years ago? Human curiosity didn't change, did it? They had rich people back then too, right? So why didn't it happen? The same generation that built the Concorde, mind you.

[wraper]

2) SpaceX is standing on the shoulders of the DECADES OF WORK ALREADY DONE BY THE GOVERNMENT. 

Dare to elaborate on the source of this claim?

[In Vacuo Veritas]

2) SpaceX is standing on the shoulders of the DECADES OF WORK ALREADY DONE BY THE GOVERNMENT. 

Dare to elaborate on the source of this claim?

... I can never tell if you're joking, or what. Are you saying SpaceX started from absolute zero knowledge of the field of rocketry? They didn't look at what worked and what didn't before??? They didn't benefit from the mountains of knowledge of theory and materials and practical engineering amassed over the decades by NASA??

In the same discussion where people talk about the amazing ROI of space???

...really ??

 

So you're saying if Elon Musk started SpaceX in 1951 he'd have achieved the same things in the same amount of time?

We are truly blessed to be alive at the same time as such an immeasurable genius. I'm picking out my counter finish for my Mars condo right now! Think I should get a space shower stall in the space bathroom? I can't wait to drive my space dune buggy over the Martian desert with my buxom space princess!

[Nusa]

You speak as if there is only one government in the world, which since you wear a Canadian tag, is presumably the Canadian government.

Most science is built on that which came before. Huge advances in rocketry came from war technology developed by Nazi Germany and the German scientists that continued their work in various countries after the war.

Russia launched Sputnik, the first satellite in orbit.
Numerous deep space probes have been launched, some of which are still active.
The US put men on the moon, briefly.
Russians and Chinese have put rovers on the moon.
Rovers have been sent to Mars.
We've got an international space station, supported by many governments.

But long before all that, someone invented the wheel!
Never mind all the other technology fields that had to be developed make what we use today.

It's not just "THE GOVERNMENT". It's many many government and non-government organizations, some of which don't exist anymore, and some that haven't existed yet. In most cases, the results of that research were INTENDED for future generations to build upon.

And yes, SpaceX is saving their customers (some of which are agencies of specific governments) money by putting payloads in orbit cheaper than anyone else seems to be able to. Including said governments themselves.