How is Chipageddon affecting you?

[Bassman59]

It's ugly with chipmakers playing favorites.
Thousands Of ‘Unfinished’ Ford Bronco Pile Up, Can’t Be Delivered Due To Chip Shortage
Ford's approach is to keep building and advise customers "just 3 more months"... which is nothing in semiconductor fab times.

To be fair, have you seen that new Bronco? It is beyond ugly. It is fugly.

[tom66]

engineers are redesigning products to accommodate more alternatives

Designing-out anything from Maxim is a good start

Maxim won two design-ins on a recent project BECAUSE they were available, meanwhile TI won't even give a backorder date for their parts, they just say keep trying the store...  Nope! 

[IDEngineer]

Just got notified by TI that a part is back in stock. Go to their store, and you're limited to 50 pieces. Yeah, that's not going to keep them in production designs around here. Apparently they're only interested in one-off breadboards.

[RJSV]

Maybe sounds out of place, but I loved Radio Shack, so it's hard to equate that.  (Although that's obviously more a hobbyist view).
   Seems like perhaps 77 % predictable, involvement with 'world players' who, time and time again, 'disappoint', (using soft language so as to NOT piss them off), disappoint, and now, they got our tech, AND can fabricate.
   We can, uh, learn to fabricate ?

Oh, and is this simply on COVID, or question about reacting to hostilities ?

Perhaps a US IC manufacturer would have some slow downs, having staff shortages, etc. ?

[Ed.Kloonk]

   We can, uh, learn to fabricate ?

I've asked this question around here numerous times in various parlances, in search of the right answer. Bottom line, the consensus is a sound No.

My attitude is that even if we attempt to recommence anything in either of our countries, the real problem is labor laws that can jeopardize anything slightly prosperous.

I'd like to contribute financially to something, but the historic behaviour of regulation and restriction cause me to fear that it's a waste of effort.

More time needs to pass.

[Marco]

It's ugly with chipmakers playing favorites.
Thousands Of ‘Unfinished’ Ford Bronco Pile Up, Can’t Be Delivered Due To Chip Shortage
Ford's approach is to keep building and advise customers "just 3 more months"... which is nothing in semiconductor fab times.

You don't really know who's playing favourites here.

Maybe Bronco buyers are the most likely to just sit there and wait, so they are the least valuable customers to please for Ford with a rationed supply. The squeaky wheel gets the oil.

[floobydust]

It's got a massive marketing push, tons of hype, Bronco fanboys and reviews building by the minute.
Base price USD $38K, Raptor starts at $70K and tops out at $80K. You'd think it's a cash cow?
I tried to find out what exactly is causing the new Bronco's to sit parked, automotive ECU MCU's are highly specialized and Ford did appear to drive them to the parking lot. So it's not the ECU, but some more generic module such as Body Control or Infotainment.

[Ian.M]

I tried to find out what exactly is causing the new Bronco's to sit parked, automotive ECU MCU's are highly specialized and Ford did appear to drive them to the parking lot. So it's not the ECU, but some more generic module such as Body Control or Infotainment.

They don't have to be parked up with all essential electronics modules.  The 'ferry' drivers could simply be unplugging critical modules in short supply and bringing them back to the plant to ferry the next car.  Its trivial for Ford to patch the firmware to bypass any checks that would disable the vehicle if serial numbers didn't match, and ignore all missing modules not directly involved with the drivetrain, brakes and steering + enough lights to be street  legal, as long as they clearly mark such patched ECUs and keep tight control of them so they don't escape into the wild!

[Marco]

Base price USD $38K, Raptor starts at $70K and tops out at $80K. You'd think it's a cash cow?

If most people will wait for their order to be fulfilled it's a cash cow regardless, just a deferred cash cow. If other types of cars are more likely to lose them customers for delivery delays, well ...

[Kasper]

   We can, uh, learn to fabricate ?

I've asked this question around here numerous times in various parlances, in search of the right answer. Bottom line, the consensus is a sound No.

My attitude is that even if we attempt to recommence anything in either of our countries, the real problem is labor laws that can jeopardize anything slightly prosperous.

I'd like to contribute financially to something, but the historic behaviour of regulation and restriction cause me to fear that it's a waste of effort.

More time needs to pass.

'The changing world order' by Ray Dalio talks about this.  Check youtube for a summary.

[jmelson]

Arrgh!  I ordered some parts from Digi-Key.  One is the Analog Devices AD2S1200 resolver-digital converter chip, Digi-Key shows 322 in stock at Rochester Electronics, but they can't ship until June 26th!  Why does D-K show stock at Rochester if they are all allocated?  Seems deceptive!
Jon

[Bud]

I think this was one of the reasons EEBLog community did not like the marketplace change in Digikey. There was no confidence in marketplace members.

[Ed.Kloonk]

Arrgh!  I ordered some parts from Digi-Key.  One is the Analog Devices AD2S1200 resolver-digital converter chip, Digi-Key shows 322 in stock at Rochester Electronics, but they can't ship until June 26th!  Why does D-K show stock at Rochester if they are all allocated?  Seems deceptive!
Jon

We really are starting to expose the breakdown of automated online ordering.

[jmelson]

We really are starting to expose the breakdown of automated online ordering.

Online ordering at Digi-Key was fine until they started this marketplace thing.  Yes, I see the attraction for D-K, they don't have to stock anything anymore!
Great plan, except for the customer who expects when he orders something that shows "in stock" then he expects he will get it shortly.
Jon

[Ed.Kloonk]

We really are starting to expose the breakdown of automated online ordering.

Online ordering at Digi-Key was fine until they started this marketplace thing.  Yes, I see the attraction for D-K, they don't have to stock anything anymore!
Great plan, except for the customer who expects when he orders something that shows "in stock" then he expects he will get it shortly.
Jon

Yep. On-line has caught up to good 'ole regular retail in that regard. There's no money in pesky item tracking.

At least when I dealt with brick and mortar suppliers, I would often get to know a 'hooman' who would, if you were civil, level with you and give you a ball-park ETA. These days computer says no.

That said, my experience here with DK isn't too bad. But it is sporadic, hobbyist things spare-time things so I'm much more lenient in expectations.

[Ed.Kloonk]

And I'm starting to wonder if all along a fair bit of the stock quantities and delivery tracking was bogus.

Amirite?

[BravoV]

Upcoming tornadoes ...

PS : This is RT (Russia Today) website, which banned in many Western countries.

Source -> https://www.rt.com/business/551219-russia-ukraine-semiconductors-crisis/

Quoted the whole article below, just in case its inaccessible in your country.

Russia-Ukraine crisis puts pressure on microchip supply chain
6 Mar, 2022

Global chip makers rely heavily on materials sourced in the two countries like neon and palladium

The already-stretched semiconductor industry is expected to suffer more interruptions from the current conflict in Eastern Europe, as Ukraine and Russia provide the bulk of the world’s supplies of neon and palladium, vital for the production of microchips.

Neon, critical for the lasers used to make chips, is a by-product of Russian steel manufacturing. It is then purified in Ukraine. Palladium is used in sensors and memory, among other applications.

The current global chip shortage will worsen if the standoff persists as more than 40% of the world’s supply of palladium comes from Russia, while Ukraine produces 70% of the global supply of neon, according to Moody’s Analytics.

“During the 2014-2015 war in Ukraine, neon prices went up by several times over, indicating how serious this can be for the semiconductor industry: semiconductor-exposure companies make up 70% of total neon demand, as it is an integral part of the lithographic process for making chips,” Tim Uy of Moody’s Analytics wrote in a recent report, seen by the Business Standard.

The ongoing chip shortage severely hit global producers during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-21 after remote work and mobility restrictions triggered an acceleration of digitization across the world.

Moody’s expects the chip crunch to deepen if a deal is not brokered in the coming months, with industries highly dependent on semiconductors to be impacted accordingly.

“This means significant risks are ahead for many automakers, electronic device manufacturers, phone makers, and many other sectors that are increasingly reliant on chips for their products to work,” the experts warn.

[Algoma]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon#Production

"Neon is produced from air in cryogenic air-separation plants"

Far from a novel process that can't be setup elsewhere. It will take time, but there are other production plants that will happily sell more at a higher price to make up the difference.

[coppice]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon#Production

"Neon is produced from air in cryogenic air-separation plants"

Far from a novel process that can't be setup elsewhere. It will take time, but there are other production plants that will happily sell more at a higher price to make up the difference.

The whole neon thing seems to be a red herring. They only produce 20% of the world's supply, and any plant making liquid oxygen, nitrogen and argon from the atmosphere should be able to separate out the rarer components of air if required to. I assume right now most of the numerous separation plants just don't have a big enough market for the rarer noble gases to bother with them.

[Algoma]

https://www.britannica.com/science/neon-chemical-element details the process. Its all a very basic, besides the high pressure cryogenics.

[tom66]

The reason so much neon is produced in Ukraine is because labour is cheap for a European country.   It's certainly not a specialised process.

It also looks like palladium is readily available across the world; maybe Russia produces a lot of it right now but if there are demands then it will be produced elsewhere.

I think the biggest worry (for Europe) is Russian gas - though Russia would be wise to be cautious over turning the taps off to Europe.  Doing so is likely to create deep distrust of Russian gas in the future, removing one lever of influence that the Russians have.  Gazprom contributes some $60 billion a year to the Russian economy - for a country with 'strategic reserves' of $600 bn that's huge.

[IDEngineer]

I think the biggest worry (for Europe) is Russian gas - though Russia would be wise to be cautious over turning the taps off to Europe.  Doing so is likely to create deep distrust of Russian gas in the future, removing one lever of influence that the Russians have.  Gazprom contributes some $60 billion a year to the Russian economy - for a country with 'strategic reserves' of $600 bn that's huge.

That entire situation is screwed up now, because it was screwed up before. Look at that pipeline... it's a terrible risk for both sides of the transaction. It's a single point to single point investment. If anything "happens" at either end, Russia loses a single-source revenue stream and Germany loses a single-source energy stream. I'm sure it felt "green" to the Germans but they're going to feel blue when they can't heat their houses and generate electricity.

Chipageddon won't be at the top of Germany's priorities (hello, Bosch Sensortec?) if they plunge into a self-made energy crisis. I wonder how fast they can spin up their old coal and nuke power plants. "Green" makes nice political soundbites but the Moms and businessmen of Germany will kick the greenies to the curb to make sure their babies are warm, the factories are running, and the paychecks are going out. Meanwhile, you're correct about Russia's reputation as a reliable source of energy... Germany is not likely to require being taught this particular lesson again for a while. And all of Russia's other potential customers are watching carefully too.

The world's economies are getting a swift reminder of the importance of reliable, predictable, resilient energy.  It doesn't take long without power to rearrange those priorities. Energy is pretty much the base of Maslow's Hierarchy.

[tom66]

There's nothing unreliable about renewable energy if you do it right.   Natural gas is just too cheap* that renewables don't compete on price yet.  But if you were to spend, say, the annual amount that's spent on fossil fuels on renewable technology then you could make the transition within a decade.

If anything, the Russian crisis is likely to push Germany and the rest of the EU towards a fully renewable grid sooner, rather than going back to coal.  Besides, most of their old coal plants are mothballed and Russia supplies substantial amounts of coal too, so in a hypothetical Russia-gas-free world, there's probably going to be a shortage of coal too.   Nuclear plants are probably similarly cold, dark and damp, and Russia and Ukraine were and continue to be significant sources of uranium fuel. Again, geopolitically non-viable.

There are entire nation-states and islands that obtain all of their energy from renewables, typically wind.  There have been numerous studies proposing a renewable energy grid based on a combination of wind, solar PV and storage via hydrogen or ammonia (long-term) and batteries (short-to-medium term).    Example:

https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/17/5230/htm

It removes a geopolitical lever from the Saudis and Russians, and it reduces the influence of the petrodollar, so it's received lobbying to slow and inhibit progress from all over.  But it will happen soon enough.

*Including storage, but with the current shortages/high prices of natural gas, this is not true so much any more.  If prices return to 2019 levels then it is close to true, but with the cost of storage falling, it will cross back over soon enough.

[nctnico]

It seems assemblers also have a hard time making quotations these days. I'm waiting for weeks already to get quotes to have some boards produced. I already procured the hard-to-get parts...  I just ordered a solder paste dispenser as I'm contemplating on assembling the boards myself.  I don't want to wait much longer.

[Kasper]

It seems assemblers also have a hard time making quotations these days. I'm waiting for weeks already to get quotes to have some boards produced. I already procured the hard-to-get parts...  I just ordered a solder paste dispenser as I'm contemplating on assembling the boards myself.  I don't want to wait much longer.

I use solder paste that comes in a syringe.  If there's too much I'll nip some off with an exacto knife.  Yesterday I didn't even use paste.  Got boards from JLC in 2 weeks which was great except they wouldn't do a 0.4mm pitch, 4 lead BGA, so I tried it in my toaster oven.  Was planning to remove JLC's solder, add paste and then put in oven but figured I'd start with just adding flux and then placing the BGA on the soldered pads.  Doesn't look great and I wouldn't trust it to last very long but it worked first try.  I only needed it for a quick test which it passed, even got 0.7A through it.  Hardest part was finding the polarity mark on the IC.