Covid 19 virus

[Mr.B]

...
Another week has been added to the NZ lockdown ...

Sorry @tautech... Source?
I cannot find any info in mainstream media.

[tautech]

...
Another week has been added to the NZ lockdown ...

Sorry @tautech... Source?
I cannot find any info in mainstream media.

Wife heard it on the news today but not heard any confirmation on the 6pm news. 
Maybe she needs a hearing test. 

I’ll edit if there’s nothing further about it.

[mzzj]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6

Don't know where the numbers come from, but the amount of tests per million people is interesting. If accurate, Australia should exhibit a similar development of deaths vs. confirmed infected as Germany.

Doubt it. Germany has several times the population, so even if the tests/million is higher, the number of people available to be infected is smaller. Especially if you factor in the much higher population density in Germany. Australia is BIG.

99% of Australia is  barren wasteland with close to zero population. Population density is not that much different in areas where people actually live.

[Nusa]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00827-6

Don't know where the numbers come from, but the amount of tests per million people is interesting. If accurate, Australia should exhibit a similar development of deaths vs. confirmed infected as Germany.

Doubt it. Germany has several times the population, so even if the tests/million is higher, the number of people available to be infected is smaller. Especially if you factor in the much higher population density in Germany. Australia is BIG.

99% of Australia is  barren wasteland with close to zero population. Population density is not that much different in areas where people actually live.

While you have a point, 99% is an exaggeration, nor does that change the raw population discrepancy. So I'm going to have to disagree with you there:
https://chartingtransport.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/au-eu-ca-nz-population-weighted-density.png
One can drive from anywhere to anywhere in Germany in 8 hours or less, not to mention the 7 or 8 Schengen countries that have land borders. Australia only has sea or air borders, and driving times are often measured in days, not hours. Natural isolation, in other words.

[Muttley Snickers]

In the State of Victoria we have just had a ban placed on the purchase of firearms and ammunition due to a dramatic increase in the number of people buying ammunition and applying for a Permit to Purchase, damn lucky I am already geared up.   

And a note: This is just a heads up and not an invitation to start a conversation on firearms, discussions about firearms are not welcome on this forum.

Sorry I couldn't provide a better reference than the one linked below.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-pandemic-prompts-victoria-to-ban-sales-of-guns-and ammunition/ar-BB11VGOz

 

[peter-h]

This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b

So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.

[thinkfat]

One can drive from anywhere to anywhere in Germany in 8 hours or less, not to mention the 7 or 8 Schengen countries that have land borders. Australia only has sea or air borders, and driving times are often measured in days, not hours. Natural isolation, in other words.

True, but people in Australia do travel and it doesn't take much to spark an outbreak in the densely populated areas.

But I was going for something else, not for absolute numbers: Australia, like Germany, is more likely to exhibit the true fatality rate in reporting, since due to the massive testing they're likely to also detect the mild cases and add them to the statistic early.

[Bud]

Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support. 
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.

You are comparing apples to oranges. Cuba sent doctors, Russia sent doctors and disinfecting equipment and personnel. Any boots on the ground from France?

[bd139]

The French are still doing the paperwork 

[BU508A]

[maginnovision]

This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b

So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.

There are no strong people in the UK, all fat? In numbers I'm obese, in life I'm not... Where would that leave me?

[2N3055]

This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b

So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.

There are no strong people in the UK, all fat? In numbers I'm obese, in life I'm not... Where would that leave me?

BMI is the most stupid number ever invented. It presumes very low muscle and bone mass i.e. it presumes that most of the body weight comes from body fat..

[VK3DRB]

A bit of light entertainment about the truth of the corona virus brought to you by our sponsors the local chapter of the  Illuminati ...

An ex-electronics engineer acquaintance, whom I went to uni with decades ago, left the profession because "electronics engineers are puppets of the Jewish run banks". He was a good analogue designer but always lacked common sense. He left Melbourne a couple of years ago and became a prepper in a remote part of Victoria because "everyone else is going to be killed in the impending apocalypse". He is a strong Illuminati believer which raises the flag that he is of unsound mind.

He called me about a week ago and said he was enlightened with "clues" about the corona virus. Here is what he said:
1. The Chinese government engineered this virus and unleashed as a weapon against the West.
2. The Illuminati and the Chinese government are in a joint venture to decrease the world population from 7 billion to 500 million. They are carefully regulating the virus spread to meet their target number within two years.
3. The Chinese government wants to kill their old people because they are past their use-by date and are too expensive to keep alive.
4. The governments of the world want everyone to use tap and go debit cards cards rather than using cash to avoid the virus. This is a ploy for the governments to outlaw cash and only allow electronic transfers, so that the Illuminati will eventually control everyone using one-world government.
5. The governments will eventually use their military means to cull the excess populations.

Could he be right ?

Seriously, this guy is a harmless lunatic with few friends, but he is not dangerous unlike some Illuminati believers like  James Gargsoulas.

[SilverSolder]

A bit of light entertainment about the truth of the corona virus brought to you by our sponsors the local chapter of the  Illuminati ...

An ex-electronics engineer acquaintance, whom I went to uni with decades ago, left the profession because "electronics engineers are puppets of the Jewish run banks". He was a good analogue designer but always lacked common sense. He left Melbourne a couple of years ago and became a prepper in a remote part of Victoria because "everyone else is going to be killed in the impending apocalypse". He is a strong Illuminati believer which raises the flag that he is of unsound mind.

He called me about a week ago and said he was enlightened with "clues" about the corona virus. Here is what he said:
1. The Chinese government engineered this virus and unleashed as a weapon against the West.
2. The Illuminati and the Chinese government are in a joint venture to decrease the world population from 7 billion to 500 million. They are carefully regulating the virus spread to meet their target number within two years.
3. The Chinese government wants to kill their old people because they are past their use-by date and are too expensive to keep alive.
4. The governments of the world want everyone to use tap and go debit cards cards rather than using cash to avoid the virus. This is a ploy for the governments to outlaw cash and only allow electronic transfers, so that the Illuminati will eventually control everyone using one-world government.
5. The governments will eventually use their military means to cull the excess populations.

Could he be right ?

Seriously, this guy is a harmless lunatic with few friends, but he is not dangerous unlike some Illuminati believers like  James Gargsoulas.

He doesn't sound too different from many mainstream politicians these days...   

[TerminalJack505]

Here in the US recently there has been (or will be) some reconsideration regarding the use of masks.

The US’s top infectious disease expert said that a broad use of masks is being considered during the coronavirus pandemic, once the supply of masks is sufficient for health care workers.

This likely doesn't come as a surprise to many.  Personally, the phrase "a mask doesn't help" has been on my shit-that-stupid-people-say list since the beginning--along with "it's just the flu."

[dietert1]

We can see in our neighborhood that human civilization has turned into something very fragile. Many people are following some strange fantasies and feelings instead of using their brains. I'd guess on the long run about 30 % of the population would rather commit suicide instead of adapting to the new situation. My wife even proposed calling police because of obvious violations of social isolation rules.
Unless those people stop, we will be completely broke before resolving anything. I am waiting for the German government to tell everybody that the shutdown will last until the day when nobody gets tested positive. Or a week after that to be sure. Right now the number of new positives is decreasing, yet still several thousand per day. A clear indication of strong virus activity.

Regards, Dieter

[vodka]

We can see in our neighborhood that human civilization has turned into something very fragile. Many people are following some strange fantasies and feelings instead of using their brains. I'd guess on the long run about 30 % of the population would rather commit suicide instead of adapting to the new situation.

Regards, Dieter

What morale so low, you only bring a week on "isolation".

[PlainName]

Personally, the phrase "a mask doesn't help"

If you read back you'll see that I am a 'mask is better than nowt' person, but I have to take task with you on the grounds that your quote isn't what the other side's argument is. What they are (or were) suggesting is that a mask can make matters worse. Sure, it might work a bit, but in doing so it increases the risk of infection (via your fiddling with it) so overall it is better not to have one.

[Cerebus]

This contains some recent data on how people with different health conditions (comorbidities) do with the virus once in hospital in the UK:

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b

So, yes, as suggested earlier, being fat is really bad. But that's obvious generally.

It doesn't say that. You're just jumping on one number in isolation, that may have no linkage to mortality, without taking in the whole picture. Being old has a much bigger effect in that table, being male versus female has a similar effect to having a BMI > 30 versus BMI < 30 - it doesn't say who is young and fat, old and fat, male and skinny etc. You didn't come to the conclusion "being male is really bad", but it has has much (or as little) evidential support present in that paper.

For those that case about these things: n=86 for age, 86 for gender, 79 for BMI, 82 for needs support with daily living needs, 83 for severe co-morbidities, and 82 for whether advanced respiratory support was provided. (i.e. it's obvious that the base data set is (1) small, (2) a total mess or n would be the same for all tabulated outcomes). It's also heavily qualified in other ways, i.e. an admittedly biased sample.

[TerminalJack505]

If you read back you'll see that I am a 'mask is better than nowt' person, but I have to take task with you on the grounds that your quote isn't what the other side's argument is. What they are (or were) suggesting is that a mask can make matters worse. Sure, it might work a bit, but in doing so it increases the risk of infection (via your fiddling with it) so overall it is better not to have one.

My main point is that the 'experts' are now moving the goalposts so just "hide and watch" (as the saying goes) as their arguments will change regarding the use of face masks.

The problem is that they will now need to explain why they lied to the public to begin with.  (Let's face it, they knew better all along.)  They sacrificed their credibility because of it.

[nctnico]

Meanwhile it seems there is a propaganda war going on in Italy between Cuba, China, Russia and the US about who can deliver the most support. 
Ofcourse there is a lot of chest beating going on while in reality France has delivered more face masks to Italy compared to Cuba, China and Russia.

You are comparing apples to oranges. Cuba sent doctors, Russia sent doctors and disinfecting equipment and personnel. Any boots on the ground from France?

I wrote 'face masks'! 
And what are a couple of dozen doctors and nurses going to accomplish compared to the hundreds of thousands of Italian health care workers and military personel anyway? Less than a drop in a bucket. It is pure propaganda to push a wedge into the EU.

BMI is the most stupid number ever invented. It presumes very low muscle and bone mass i.e. it presumes that most of the body weight comes from body fat..

But it doesn't mean it is meaningless. It is a good measure for the average person. There are other methods too with their pros and cons. AFAIK the WHO has a method which uses the circumfence of your waiste, sex and age to say you are overweight or not.
Dutch doctors also noted that most of the people in the ICU due to Covid19 are overweight.

[paulca]

US Confirmed: 174k
US Population: 327m
Percentage: 0.05%

World Confirmed: 826k
World Population: 7.53b
Percentage: 0.01%

For perspective.  Of course "Confirmed" doesn't = infected. 

100x?
1000x?

[nctnico]

US Confirmed: 174k
US Population: 327m
Percentage: 0.05%

World Confirmed: 826k
World Population: 7.53b
Percentage: 0.01%

For perspective.  Of course "Confirmed" doesn't = infected. 

Rest assured that the problems in the poorer parts of the world are much bigger. But governments don't pay too much attention to it to prevent mass panic. Recently I saw a video of a couple doing shopping in full hazmat suits in Indonesia. The shop manager got angry claiming that they made people afraid.

[DrG]

Why I am so angry at so much of my country’s top leadership for the Covid-19 response, why I believe that I am right to be angry and why I am not going to forget what has happened and what has not happened.

The top leadership ignored and over-ruled the scientists at the earliest stages and when actions would have had the greatest impact. National security SMEs were also ignored and over-ruled.

During the early stages the public was given bizarrely inaccurate messages (somehow “misinformation” doesn’t do it justice) from the highest levels of Government. The misinformation persists and has, again, created division in the country that costs lives and money.

Every dollar spent early would have produced a huge savings in just a few months. Instead of that realization, we saw a refusal to fight and a willful ignorance so profound that it is mind-numbing.

Because of asymptomatic infectors in addition to incubation time infectors, massive testing is required, not optional. Still, to this day we are deficient in testing and private companies, not the Federal Government, has taken the lead all along.

When I walk into a grocery store (because I have to buy food sometimes), everyone should be wearing a mask, period. That we have been unable to produce a sufficient amount of PPE given the substantial lead up time is no excuse to debate whether wearing a face mask is helpful, or worse, pontificate extraordinary circumstances that would make it a liability. It is absurd.

The US has a Defense Production Act which, essentially, gives power to the Federal Government to direct industry to produce essential goods and services. It was only used in one case so far and only a few days ago (GM, respirators/ventilators) and Ford had already begun working in the area.

We had a long period to prepare and act while watching the epidemic in China. Instead of gearing up for the inevitable (the one that scientists had been expecting) the top leadership engaged in buffoonery which has led to extant dumfukery.

As death counts exceed notable historical events of war, we see the top leadership spin events as “nobody saw this coming”, “nobody has ever seen something like this”, “what will be, will be”, “let’s not make the treatment worse than the sickness”, “let’s give ourselves an A+ for the great job we have done”. It is unacceptably pathetic and we have a right to expect better.

As hospital ICUs are over-run, those Covid-19 death counts will be underestimated because of the impact on deaths unrelated, but that would not have occurred, if ICUs were not operating beyond capability – that is what beyond capability means.

You bet I am angry and I have a right to be. What helps me now is the knowledge that I am not going to forget this dumfukery in November, and beyond, when I vote.

[tautech]

Why I am so angry at so much of my country’s top leadership for the Covid-19 response, why I believe that I am right to be angry and why I am not going to forget what has happened and what has not happened.....................

Money and international political posturing opportunities overrule the need to protect the population.