Covid 19 virus

[Simon]

Yep, same as in the UK.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

[engrguy42]

Again, I have been summarizing data from WHO regarding the present status of the situation. The only prediction I've made is that we can't predict the future with any certainty, other than some VERY broad generalizations to say that since this is still early, things will get worse. But nobody can quantify what "worse" means in terms of actual numbers. Just like nobody can define or quantify what "things won't be pretty" means. None of that is usable data.

But those hazy, undefined generalizations certainly provide an "out" for people to look back on this in a few months and say "see, I was right, it wasn't 'pretty'".   

My purpose in summarizing these reports has been solely for my own information to see what the actual numbers say, rather than believe those running around in a panic saying we'll all die tomorrow. 

The only reason I post it is to hopefully provide a bit of comfort for those who might be falling prey to the fear and paranoia, and are looking for real numbers and perhaps a bit of hope. It's certainly helped me to put things into perspective. But if you don't like the info, please don't read my posts on the subject.   

[drussell]

...
rather than believe those running around in a panic saying we'll all die tomorrow. 

Who said anything like that?

[Nusa]

Accusing people of doing things they haven't been doing is a pretty good example of hand waving.

As for summaries, I'd suggest using one of the existing sites using the same data that allows sorting by column headers. Instant results without having to sacrifice most of the data before drawing conclusions.

[Mortymore]

To check the situation in Portugal

https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-de-situacao-atual-em-portugal/

[thinkfat]

To check the situation in Portugal

https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-de-situacao-atual-em-portugal/

First report of distribution of symptoms I have seen online. That is very interesting!

[peter-h]

Without giving percentages per population, this is not very useful. If say 80% of Portugal was aged 40-60 then you would get a peak there anyway.

[edavid]

As I wrote before, it's like watching frogs being slowly boiled in water. They swim so happily until they are nearly done.

Since we're trying to be scientific, boiled frogs is a myth: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog

[engrguy42]

After reviewing the numbers so far, I tried to come up with what I personally think is a reasonable ballpark of how I personally am expecting this virus to proceed in the US. Now, before you jump in and tell me I'm wrong, don't bother. I agree with you. I'm wrong.

The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally. Based on present WHO data on how it's transpired so far in the world.

My bottom line is that I wouldn't be surprised if the virus numbers (confirmed and total deaths) in the US worsened for the next 2-3 weeks, and started to flatten and decline by the end of April. And I wouldn't be surprised if the US total deaths go from the present 1,000+ to between 5,000 to 10,000 before they decline. FYI, at present, Italy has reported over 8,000 deaths, China (where it all started) over 3,000 deaths, and Spain over 4,000 deaths. So I personally won't be surprised if US gets to where Spain or Italy are right now in terms of total deaths, prior to a decline by end of April as the virus dies out like SARS, etc.

My reasoning:

- Present confirmed cases in US are probably around 80k, and if we assume a ballpark death rate of around 3% that means as a minimum we can expect an additional 2,000+ deaths, raising the total from the present 1,000 to 3,000.

- Most countries have been in lockdown much of this week, and in the US I assume/hope that this means the recent transmission rates have dropped precipitously starting this week. And I'm hoping/expecting that means that new confirmed cases will start to drop sometime in late April.

- So the big unknowns are the success of the lockdown as well as the impact of not-yet-confirmed cases. And nobody knows the answer.

If China's numbers are to be believed, they have been very successful with their lockdown. Again, if they are to be believed, China is where it started, and with a population of 1.4 billion it's surprising they have had so few deaths (3,000+?). So maybe it's possible.

I'm *guessing* that Italy has suffered due partly to a timing issue, whereby they shut down later than China did relative to their transmission/infections. And I *think* the US shut down this week was relatively early in the process and therefore might be in better shape as far as new transmissions. 

So given all that, I personally won't be surprised if by end of April the US sees a total death rate about where Italy is today (ie, maybe something like 8x what the US total deaths are today, or somewhere between 5,000 to 10,000 total), and after that I'm expecting the virus to follow the path of SARS and other past viruses that kinda died out.

Again, I admit this is all wrong. And if you disagree, feel free to post your own predictions, with numbers and rationale and such like I did. Should be interesting.   

 

[2N3055]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Instead of all of us inventing data and predictions, take a look at how it's done...

[PlainName]

A pedant writes:

boiled frogs is a myth

ignoring the possibility that it's also a metaphor, thus missing the wood for the trees

[nctnico]

After reviewing the numbers so far, I tried to come up with what I personally think is a reasonable ballpark of how I personally am expecting this virus to proceed in the US. Now, before you jump in and tell me I'm wrong, don't bother. I agree with you. I'm wrong.

The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally. Based on present WHO data on how it's transpired so far in the world.

My bottom line is that I wouldn't be surprised if the virus numbers (confirmed and total deaths) in the US worsened for the next 2-3 weeks, and started to flatten and decline by the end of April. And I wouldn't be surprised if the US total deaths go from the present 1,000+ to between 5,000 to 10,000 before they decline. FYI, at present, Italy has reported over 8,000 deaths, China (where it all started) over 3,000 deaths, and Spain over 4,000 deaths. So I personally won't be surprised if US gets to where Spain or Italy are right now in terms of total deaths, prior to a decline by end of April as the virus dies out like SARS, etc.

That is highly speculative. If you look at Italy (Wikipedia has daily numbers for cases, recoveries and deaths for many countries) then you can see they are managing to flatten the daily increase of cases and number of deaths (which seem to be correlated to the flattening of daily cases is likely not due to less testing). Looking at the new cases and deaths in the US then the number is still rising rapidly. Also large parts of the US don't seem to be locked down (yet) so the Covid19 virus is spreading there freely. I've seen articles estimating the number of deaths in the US ranging from 450k to 1.5M. Unlike SARS Covid19 needs very serious lockdown measures in order to die out. I'm starting to get more and more respect for the Chinese for their ability to actually contain Covid19.

[maginnovision]

I recently saw a video(https://youtu.be/INrWb-kl5NI) New York City public housing hasn't been cleaning buildings, have limited elevators(forcing people to be cramped into remaining), and they're people who don't always have internet and are largely unaware of what they should be doing. 500000 people in close proximity. If it hits there you'll see huge numbers real fast, and while it would be bad I'd hardly say it reflects the US situation as a whole. New York has a population density over double that of any other US city.

There also is the idea of an actionable quarantine of the tristate area(NY, NJ, CT). NJ has started to quarantine people coming from NY as well.

[Mortymore]

Without giving percentages per population, this is not very useful. If say 80% of Portugal was aged 40-60 then you would get a peak there anyway.

Probably here is something of interest: https://www.populationpyramid.net/pt/portugal/2020/

Don't know how accurate the numbers are, but you can check de population distribution by ages in the world

[Cerebus]

A pedant writes:

boiled frogs is a myth

ignoring the possibility that it's also a metaphor, thus missing the wood for the trees

And the little pool of simmering frog soup in the middle of that wood. 

[Cerebus]

The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally.

If it's purely for personal consumption, as you stress so heavily, why are you bothering other people with it? Is this a version of "stop hitting my hand with your face?

[not1xor1]

Unlike SARS Covid19 needs very serious lockdown measures in order to die out. I'm starting to get more and more respect for the Chinese for their ability to actually contain Covid19.

It is high unlikely to die out. It is so wide spread now that it will probably become just like the other human coronaviruses, hopefully with just the same flu-like symptoms once we get herd immunity (via vaccine).
BTW the most recent hypothesis is that pangolins were the intermediate hosts beween bats and humans.

[nctnico]

Without giving percentages per population, this is not very useful. If say 80% of Portugal was aged 40-60 then you would get a peak there anyway.

Probably here is something of interest: https://www.populationpyramid.net/pt/portugal/2020/

Don't know how accurate the numbers are, but you can check de population distribution by ages in the world

According to a Dutch newspaper Dutch doctors observed 70% to 80% of the people ending up in the ICU are fat. Ofcourse this is just an observation but could hint to other risk factors besides age.

[drussell]

...
Again, I admit this is all wrong. And if you disagree, feel free to post your own predictions, with numbers and rationale and such like I did. Should be interesting.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Instead of all of us inventing data and predictions, take a look at how it's done...

For anyone that is interested in doing their own analysis or verification, the following paper will likely prove useful to help guide your methodology.  It compares several methods of during-epridemic estimation versus the eventual final CFR of all the actual outcomes.  It was published in the American Journal of Epidemiology in 2005, based on the data from the 2003 SARS outbreak:

"Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease"
https://academic.oup.com/aje/article-pdf/162/5/479/187184/kwi230.pdf

[Wimberleytech]

Unlike SARS Covid19 needs very serious lockdown measures in order to die out. I'm starting to get more and more respect for the Chinese for their ability to actually contain Covid19.

It is high unlikely to die out. It is so wide spread now that it will probably become just like the other human coronaviruses, hopefully with just the same flu-like symptoms once we get herd immunity (via vaccine).
BTW the most recent hypothesis is that pangolins were the intermediate hosts beween bats and humans.

Interesting.  Did not know what a pangolin was until I looked it up.  Ironic that it is use for traditional Chinese medicine.
So what is the view on why Italy has been hit so hard?

[Mortymore]

...
So what is the view on why Italy has been hit so hard?

Covid-19 spreads fast between humans with social contact or proximity, and affects most severely the older ones. Besides the aged population, we latins have strong family bonds, and are very relaxed in life, thinking that bad thing only hits others. And this conditions summed, lead to disaster.
In Portugal, seems so far, that we learned something from the misfortune that occurs in Italy and Spain.
My heart is with them 

EDIT: We have a social health care service that serves everyone, so there's hardly any death from Covid-19 without being acknowledge as that. Countries were that's not the case, some may die without being reported, treated or tested.

[Dundarave]

The sole purpose of this is for me personally to get a ballpark idea of what seems reasonable to expect. For me. Personally.

If it's purely for personal consumption, as you stress so heavily, why are you bothering other people with it? Is this a version of "stop hitting my hand with your face?

I think that it's becoming an overwhelmingly stressful time for many people, and a lot of people are doing whatever they can to cope mentally and physically with the uncertainty.  I'm seeing this everywhere these days, in all sorts of people, situations and venues, and one never knows the load that others are carrying in terms of worry about themselves, their family, and their ongoing existence.

I'd like to suggest, for the duration of this pandemic at least, that we all consider people's actions/comments/opinions through that lens, and cut everyone some slack.

[not1xor1]

Interesting.  Did not know what a pangolin was until I looked it up.  Ironic that it is use for traditional Chinese medicine.
So what is the view on why Italy has been hit so hard?

Pangolins looks almost like armadillos, but are completely unrelated.

Italy has been hit so hard because the contagion had spread without anybody had noticed.

The central government suspended all flights with China since the 31st of January when 2 Chinese nationals were found positive and promptly hospitalized. But those sensible guys had self-quarantined and had not spread the contagion to anybody. Apart them and another Italian repatriated from China there was no other known case (those first 3 cases fully recovered and didn't spread the contagion to anybody else) up to the 20th of February.

You can find a recap here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Lombardy_cluster

The main problem is that there had been no contact between that first spotted case and anybody coming from China. A German study proposed that the contagion had gone from Germany to Italy (one of the most densely populated parts of Italy).
Nobody expected that and the virus was able to get a foothold in various hospitals and nursing home while those first deaths of old and sick people had been considered just ordinary flu deaths.

[PlainName]

So what is the view on why Italy has been hit so hard?

Footy match and not realising the threat when presented with it:

On March 7, her father, Claudio Travelli, 60, was driving a food delivery truck all around northern Italy. The next day, he developed a fever and flu-like symptoms. His wife had run a fever in recent days, and so he called his family doctor, who told him to take a common Italian fever reducer and rest up.

For much of the prior month, Italian officials had sent mixed messages about the virus.

On Feb. 19, some 40,000 people from Bergamo, a province of about a million people in the region of Lombardy, traveled 30 miles to Milan to watch a Champions League soccer game between Atalanta and the Spanish team Valencia. (The mayor of Bergamo, Giorgio Gori, this week called the match “a strong accelerator of contagion.”) Mr. Travelli and his wife didn’t take the threat of the virus seriously back then, their daughter said, “because it wasn’t sold as a grave thing.”

Taken from a very sobering picture piece in the New York Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html

[nctnico]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html

It's behind a login wall in order to harvest e-mail addresses to spam. Can you paste the relevant part of the text?