Covid 19 virus

[Zero999]

I'm not sure if I can sum up his arguments in a few sentences, but as far as I got it:

* The test kits for SARS-CoV-2 are sensitive to many Corona viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.
* Corona viruses are endemic, you find them everywhere.
* It's impossible to figure out if somebody died from infection with SARS-CoV-2 or from any other cause.
* There is no pandemic, it's just normal flu season and the panic is just due to testing with flawed methods.

so he's just the usual nut who pretends he is the only one who knows the truth while all the other guys are just fools...

Yes. The typical Youtube mis-information clickbait.

To be honest, my initial reaction was this has all been blown out of proportion, but I soon realised I was obviously wrong. I'm glad I wasn't running the country.

If he still doesn't believe it's a problem, perhaps he should visit Italy?

[drussell]

There are a few articles out there with positive patients who are asymptomatic.
Here is one:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32146694/

Interesting, thank you. 

In case anyone is interested, here is a link to the actual paper, instead of just the abstract with multiple links to jump through to find the .PDF:

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11427-020-1661-4.pdf

I had not seen that one yet, I will have to read it in detail as soon as I have a moment.

Right now, though, I must venture out for a bit....

[iMo]

"hey, we need a gazillion retired doctors and other medical professionals to get back to work,

While at first that might sound like a good idea, most of those retired doctors fall squarely in the most at-risk groups for death if they end up contracting the virus.  Given the current lack of reliable  PPE supply and the likelihood for gaps in proper protection procedures for at least the short-to-medium term, bringing a bunch of older doctors out of retirement may not actually be the best idea.

Graduating new doctors and nurses a bit early from their school programs, though, would probably make a lot of sense.  Being allowed to help with basic care, even if they haven't technically completed every requirement yet might be rather useful very soon.

they had to rely on both measures in the most stricken part of Italy
tenths of doctors have died during the last month

Media informed about doctors from China, Russia and Cuba who came to help Italy. Is that so? How is their contribution (ie special methods, drugs, equipment)?

[engrguy42]

Move along...nothing happening here...just some facts to inject.

FWIW, here is my summary of today's (March 25) WHO report on the 8 countries with the highest COVID19 deaths to date.

Here's where the US stands:

- Remains #6 in total deaths to date.

- #4 in new deaths since yesterday's report

- #3 in confirmed cases to date.

- #6 in confirmed cases as % of total population.

- #8 (last place) in total deaths to date as % of population

[Cerebus]

While at first that might sound like a good idea, most of those retired doctors fall squarely in the most at-risk groups for death if they end up contracting the virus.  Given the current lack of reliable  PPE supply and the likelihood for gaps in proper protection procedures for at least the short-to-medium term, bringing a bunch of older doctors out of retirement may not actually be the best idea.

They don't necessarily have to get pushed into the front line. They can fill in in lower risk rôles to free up the doctors currently doing that for front line duty. Although there is a quantity of stuff that the health care system can postpone, let's not forget that there's a lot of other urgent and emergency stuff going on all the time that isn't going away and still needs doctors and nurses to deal with.

[Bud]

Media informed about doctors from China, Russia and Cuba who came to help Italy. Is that so? How is their contribution (ie special methods, drugs, equipment)?

I do not think they know some secret magic recipes  but in this difficult situation for Italy any help with resources, human and technical ones, is a big relief. The Russians sent 15 monster cargo planes full of equipment and desinfecting trucks, but it is probably too early to estimate results as that happened just over the last 48 hrs.

[drussell]

They don't necessarily have to get pushed into the front line. They can fill in in lower risk rôles to free up the doctors currently doing that for front line duty. Although there is a quantity of stuff that the health care system can postpone, let's not forget that there's a lot of other urgent and emergency stuff going on all the time that isn't going away and still needs doctors and nurses to deal with.

That is a good point.

+1 Touche

I hope most hospitals will be able to properly isolate the areas treating COVID-19 from the rest of the buildings.  I know China went to great lengths on this... 

If isolation can be maintained there through the shortages of protective gear, that will certainly help.

[maginnovision]

"Luckily" Over half of the US cases right now are one state. 1/4 Are new york county(basically new york city). Most of the other quarter are in nearby nassau county, followed by Suffolk, Rockland, and Orange(I used to live here). I don't know if any other state is going to get it as bad as them. They shutdown almost the same time as my state, California, but I don't think we have anywhere near the population density they have. I'm actually newly sick today after going to the doctor for a hospital stay follow-up. I'm hoping it's just from my son constantly running in my room and coughing on me but who knows. With any luck we'll start seeing new infections level off in a couple weeks, Although I don't know how much hope I have for new york at this point. I know they just recently opened up a drive through testing station by me that doesn't require an appt so that should, statistically, help us get a better picture here. The valley is relatively dense. Now all the people who refuse to stay home can stop by there while they're party hopping.

[Bud]

I know they just recently opened up a drive through testing station by me that doesn't require an appt so that should, statistically, help us get a better picture here. The valley is relatively dense. Now all the people who refuse to stay home can stop by there while they're party hopping.

I heard while it does not require an appointment, they still triage people at the entrance so not everyone gets a test. Is that correct?

[maginnovision]

I'm not sure about specifics, I'd basically have to go down there to learn more and I can't drive ATM. I don't want to take my wife and kids down there either. As soon as I can I'd be happy to find out. That's more an issue of time if they do though, not that they won't test you just need to wait longer.

[drussell]

I heard while it does not require an appointment, they still triage people at the entrance so not everyone gets a test. Is that correct?

I'm not sure about specifics, I'd basically have to go down there to learn more and I can't drive ATM. I don't want to take my wife and kids down there either. As soon as I can I'd be happy to find out. That's more an issue of time if they do though, not that they won't test you just need to wait longer.

I would strongly suspect that they are still limiting the actual testing to those with probable infection like showing symptoms or known exposure, recent travel from hot-zone, etc. since there are still very limited numbers of tests and the lab supplies to process them in (at least most areas of) the US.

It will be nice when they get to the capacity level to actually be able to test anyone from the general public without having to ration the tests, which gives better insight into the actual spread, rather than just trying to catch up with testing the symptomatic individuals, etc.  Here in Alberta we have tested a total of 35508 people thus far, or one test for every 123 residents, with 419 positive results, or about a 1.2% positive rate of those tested.

[Electro Detective]

Move along...nothing happening here...just some facts to inject.

FWIW, here is my summary of today's (March 25) WHO report on the 8 countries with the highest COVID19 deaths to date.

Here's where the US stands:

- Remains #6 in total deaths to date.

- #4 in new deaths since yesterday's report

- #3 in confirmed cases to date.

- #6 in confirmed cases as % of total population.

- #8 (last place) in total deaths to date as % of population

Are these casualties collateral damage the result of violence and or stampede crushing at the supermarket over toilet paper ? 


An important message from the WHO: 

[drussell]

Move along...nothing happening here...just some facts to inject.

FWIW, here is my summary of today's (March 25) WHO report on the 8 countries with the highest COVID19 deaths to date.

Here's where the US stands:

- Remains #6 in total deaths to date.
- #4 in new deaths since yesterday's report
- #3 in confirmed cases to date.
- #6 in confirmed cases as % of total population.
- #8 (last place) in total deaths to date as % of population

Ok. All true enough.  I don't understand what point you're trying to make, though.

They are also:
- #1 in active, unresolved cases.
- #1 in new confirmed infections per day
- #1 in speed of rise in cases since first 100 detected
(the slope of the line is almost right on the doubles-every-2-days line, surpassing Italy and Spain)

Within the next 48h they will also become the country with the highest number of total confirmed cases.

[maginnovision]

I heard while it does not require an appointment, they still triage people at the entrance so not everyone gets a test. Is that correct?

I'm not sure about specifics, I'd basically have to go down there to learn more and I can't drive ATM. I don't want to take my wife and kids down there either. As soon as I can I'd be happy to find out. That's more an issue of time if they do though, not that they won't test you just need to wait longer.

I would strongly suspect that they are still limiting the actual testing to those with probable infection like showing symptoms or known exposure, recent travel from hot-zone, etc. since there are still very limited numbers of tests...

That would be discrimination. The by appt. ones are definitely more exclusive. In fact, I had all the symptoms and couldn't get tested. I think approving places like LabCorp to do testing is going to be a bigger help than having govt control everything.

[Bud]

Media informed about doctors from China, Russia and Cuba who came to help Italy. Is that so? How is their contribution (ie special methods, drugs, equipment)?

I do not think they know some secret magic recipes  but in this difficult situation for Italy any help with resources, human and technical ones, is a big relief. The Russians sent 15 monster cargo planes full of equipment and desinfecting trucks, but it is probably too early to estimate results as that happened just over the last 48 hrs.

There they are going to Bergamo, lots of trucks.

https://youtu.be/GvOUuhaM4bM

[Nusa]

I would strongly suspect that they are still limiting the actual testing to those with probable infection like showing symptoms or known exposure, recent travel from hot-zone, etc. since there are still very limited numbers of tests...

That would be discrimination. The by appt. ones are definitely more exclusive. In fact, I had all the symptoms and couldn't get tested. I think approving places like LabCorp to do testing is going to be a bigger help than having govt control everything.

Yup, but using that word to describe it doesn't make it illegal. Discrimination is called triage when insufficient resources are being allocated to an emergency situation. Think of this as a preview of what happens when some hospitals are low on ventilators, not just testing ability. The ones getting hospitalization today are lucky in the sense that they're getting proper care before the capacity is exhausted. Some of those needing respiratory care later on are not going to survive a normally survivable situation.

[maginnovision]

I would strongly suspect that they are still limiting the actual testing to those with probable infection like showing symptoms or known exposure, recent travel from hot-zone, etc. since there are still very limited numbers of tests...

That would be discrimination. The by appt. ones are definitely more exclusive. In fact, I had all the symptoms and couldn't get tested. I think approving places like LabCorp to do testing is going to be a bigger help than having govt control everything.

Yup, but using that word to describe it doesn't make it illegal. Discrimination is called triage when insufficient resources are being allocated to an emergency situation. Think of this as a preview of what happens when some hospitals are low on ventilators, not just testing ability. The ones getting hospitalization today are lucky in the sense that they're getting proper care before the capacity is exhausted. Some of those needing respiratory care later on are not going to survive a normally survivable situation.

Sorry, it was a joke.

[hamster_nz]

Detailed localized modeling for New Zealand has been made available

https://www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/2020/03/26/suppression-and-mitigation-strategies-for-control-of-covid-19-in-new-zealand/

Click on the "LINK TO FULL PDF HERE"

EDIT: Summary: From table 2 - 1.25% to 1.67% population fatality rate under all different scenarios, unless a vaccine is available before the suppression measures are removed.

From figure 3 - all six different scenarios result in hospital capacity being greatly exceeded, either during the controls or after they are removed.

[Mr. Scram]

  So you looked a few fancy terms. It doesn't mean that you have any idea of what you're talking about.

   And in case you missed it, after weeks of the WHO, CDC and other "experts"claiming that industrial grade masks weren't effective against the virus, US officials are now suddenly saying that they good enough to be used in hospitals!  They claim that the problem was that industrial mask makers don't have the liability insurance to make that claim but now the US has passed a law removing any liability against them. BINGO!  Now the US is supplying industrial grade masks to hospitals!

Some people on here actually do have a clue what they're talking about. Most seem to want to avoid an argument from authority and present worthwhile information instead. Not all opinions are created equal.

[not1xor1]

Media informed about doctors from China, Russia and Cuba who came to help Italy. Is that so? How is their contribution (ie special methods, drugs, equipment)?

I do not think they know some secret magic recipes  but in this difficult situation for Italy any help with resources, human and technical ones, is a big relief. The Russians sent 15 monster cargo planes full of equipment and desinfecting trucks, but it is probably too early to estimate results as that happened just over the last 48 hrs.

There they are going to Bergamo, lots of trucks.

https://youtu.be/GvOUuhaM4bM

Unfortunately TANSTAAFL.
I searched the net to get a clearer idea.
There is a lot of pompous coverage from right-far-right newspapers, not so much on (a bit more) independent press (so many FUDsters here I no longer know who I can trust).

Somebody wrote that those supplies from China (including 100 million face masks of various kind) are anyway paid by us. Didn't find any details about those brought by Russian army. Surely we'll have to pay those too, more or less directly, in a way or another.

I trust China more as they do have more real experience and were more sensible in comparison with that sort of Russian army parade.
Helps are appreciated, but let's not forget that they are mostly a form of propaganda aimed both to their own people and to us and unfortunately they are just another proof of the failure of Europe as an Union.

IMHO the pandemic itself, the invasion of aliens species ravaging our crops and woods, the lack of resources of public health systems and so many other current social problems are the natural outcome of an upside-down world where free enterprise comes before the rights and the freedom of the people.
And unfortunately the situation might even become worse than now with more or less manifest dictatorships replacing what is left of democracies.

[JPortici]

That said, what looks sort of weird is that the slowdown seems correlated with the date the confinement officially started, whereas due to the incubation time, we would expect a longer latency...

Well, yes, that's why i waited for some days before starting to get my hopes up.
Also, containment measures in lombardia and veneto (the most afflicted regions at the time) started about 3-7 days before national scale containment was enacted.
I expect there to be a slow down and then another rapid rise, because there was the mass of people from southern italy living in the north that panicked and returned in mass to the south before they could effectively restrict public transport

In the long run the graphs per region will show several bells, with those from the south having the peak at least 30 days after the ones from the north, delaying the end of the emergency.

[basinstreetdesign]

For anybody that thinks social distancing is not a particularly powerful weapon against the virus watch this...

[Leo Bodnar]

Mr.Scram,
How often do you wear a proper equipment?
You sound very well versed in the art.
Please share your personal killer tips as a professional.
I am just curious, because I wear P100 respirators, sealed goggles and FFP3 masks on a daily basis.  Maybe I have been endangering myself all this time?
Thanks for your help with this matter.
Leo

I feel we're going round in circles. The issue is that people don't have the proper training and discipline. They are likely to tug at infected masks and display more risky behaviour.

[paulca]

On Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, I assume is this guy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Wodarg#Public_appearance_in_the_2020_COVID-19_crisis

I don't think he is absolutely wrong.  I'm not a doctor.  I think he has some valid points of false positives and normal "flu season" noise getting picked up in the numbers.   Actually worth listening to for a different point of view.

However.  Countries like Italy and cities New York are not normally overrun with critical cases in a normal flu season.  Also I'm not sure the flu season, even with unrestricted movements, rises that fast in death rate.

So even if you remove the potentially flawed (as he suggests) testing entirely, we still have something serious going on or the ICUs wouldn't be filling up and people dying in corridors.

Finally, if we just sat back and said it was hype and later (like now) we discover that hype or no hype it's killing thousands of people daily at a still rising rate exceeding most flu seasons, it would be even more too late than it currently is.

[dietert1]

Social distancing slows down the virus outbreak, yet it causes lots of other damages. It can only be an emergency measure.

Let's see what happens next in China. I guess people in the west should learn as fast as possible how make and properly use masks. Western media should contribute in that effort. Also western leaders should give a good example and use masks. How can anybody seriously propose to loosen shutdown and not tell people at the same time they will have to wear masks whenever they leave their house. I am not talking about those simple medical masks. Everybody will need a pile of fitted masks so there is a fresh one whenever you need it.

Regards, Dieter