Covid 19 virus

[iMo]

https://suffolktimes.timesreview.com/2020/03/gov-cuomo-feds-need-to-consider-rolling-deployment-focused-on-ny-first/

New York State has now surpassed more than 30,800 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus, with 2,260 in Suffolk County. About 3,800 people are being treated for the virus in New York hospitals with 888 in intensive care units.

The governor also repeated his estimate that New York will hit its “apex of need” — the peak number of patients being treated in hospitals — within 21 days. To meet the anticipated demand, the state still needs to find a way to acquire 15,000 ventilators and about 20,000 additional hospital beds beyond the current plan.

Mr. Cuomo said the state had 4,000 ventilators before the pandemic reached its borders and has since acquired 7,000 through purchase and 4,000 more through the federal government. Its projected need is about 30,000 ventilators and the governor said the state is exploring ways to treat two patients with one ventilator to help bridge the gap.

In order to meet the demand for hospital beds, the state has directed all hospitals to expand by 50% – with some doubling in size — the federal government is building auxiliary hospital space and supplying a Navy medical ship, and the state will use downstate college dormitories. The governor said using space in hotels and nursing homes could be a next step as the state looks to grow the number of beds to 140,000.

[SiliconWizard]

Looks pretty bad (for approx 20M people...)
In comparison, in France we have currently a total ~22300 confirmed cases (for a total population of ~67M...)

[drussell]

The problem with the idea of moving ventilators from one outbreak to another is that it is unlikely that the surge will be over in a place like New York before they are already needed elsewhere.  You're still going to need a huge peak number and they aren't going to be able to be moved on to another hot-spot for quite some time.

Remember, that of China's 81000+ cases, almost 4500 cases are still unresolved, with about a third of those being in serious or critical condition, many of whom are probably still requiring the use of a ventilator, and they managed to curtail the major spread almost 2 months ago.

New York will likely need their 30000+ ventilators for many months.

[SiliconWizard]

Yeah...

This has probably been posted several times already, but just in case: https://virusncov.com/

[JPortici]

Officially getting my hopes up

However i'm not really being sold on the data from other countries (huge slow down in US,UK,Germany and france all at once  )

[SiliconWizard]

Well, the confinement is certainly helping the slowdown. It's a drastic reduction in daily contacts.

That said, what looks sort of weird is that the slowdown seems correlated with the date the confinement officially started, whereas due to the incubation time, we would expect a longer latency...

[Stray Electron]

    In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective.  Seriously?  Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?

If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?

Oh, as I said earlier, I can understand the resource management and the priorities.
The small issue I see is the lie. Even if it's a white lie for the greater good, it's still a lie, and it's obvious that especially engineers will tend to call people on that.

Except there's no evidence to point to a lie. That's why the "If, IF," qualification. And frankly, I don't think a bunch of engineers who hadn't heard of "basic reproduction number" or "case fatality ratios" two weeks ago, some of whom think that you culture human viruses in bacteria in a Petri dish, or can't tell the difference between a virologist, an epidemiologist or a general practitioner, or think that Kreb's cycle is something that you pedal, and probably think that xenic technique is something to do with how you handle foreigners, are best placed to make the judgement whether it's a lie or not.

  So you looked a few fancy terms. It doesn't mean that you have any idea of what you're talking about.

   And in case you missed it, after weeks of the WHO, CDC and other "experts"claiming that industrial grade masks weren't effective against the virus, US officials are now suddenly saying that they good enough to be used in hospitals!  They claim that the problem was that industrial mask makers don't have the liability insurance to make that claim but now the US has passed a law removing any liability against them. BINGO!  Now the US is supplying industrial grade masks to hospitals!

[Cerebus]

However i'm not really being sold on the data from other countries (huge slow down in US,UK,Germany and france all at once  )

Well, I can't speak for the others, but based on my own observations here in East London, in the UK the vast majority of people were already isolating themselves a week ago, and two weeks ago a significant proportion had already started to isolate themselves - based on observing 5-10% of normal road traffic yesterday, 10-20% a week ago and 30-50% two weeks ago. Tie that in with incubation times and I would have expected a drop in new case rates round about now.

[Deni]

Can somebody comment/explain this?


and especially this:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

[thinkfat]

Can somebody comment/explain this?


and especially this:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

Yes, easily. He's an idiot.

[Cerebus]

  So you looked a few fancy terms. It doesn't mean that you have any idea of what you're talking about.

Kind of the point. It so happens that I do know what they mean and didn't need to look anything up because before I was what I am now I was on course to become a biochemist, but that's frankly irrelevant because I'm not setting myself out as either the expert or in a valid position to challenge the experts - however, many people with even less biomedical knowledge than me are setting themselves out to challenge the advice of the experts. I know that I know little enough to defray to the experts, others seem to be only too happy to go full Dunning-Kruger on this because "we're engineers".

To a biochemist 'transconductance' and 'reactance' are 'fancy' terms. That you use 'fancy' in that disparaging way would seem to indicate a degree of contempt for people whose speciality is not yours. That kind of anti-intellectualism is normal in some circles but is hardly becoming of someone who would describe themselves as an engineer. What's next "Hey look boys, we got ourselves a reader."?

[not1xor1]

The WHO predicts that within days USA will be the global hotspot of the coronavirus disease. I think all major TV channels should have prepared by now and start as soon as possible a strong educational effort to show and explain all aspects of how to DIY useful face masks and how to use them properly. Those programs should run all day instead of all the other nonsense. This way they should demonstrate their patriotism. Nodody should rely on some strange youtube video.

Regards, Dieter

I wrote that several days ago (I was overly pessimistic, US are doing a bit better than what I feared)

Due to the different TZ, US data are updated up to the next morning (European time)
by then US cases figure will be close to the Italian one
the day after tomorrow in the morning, US will surely be the first country in the world for amount of positive cases
deaths figure of course lags a few weeks behind

everybody who's been looking at the pandemic development in Italy should have been able to see that

BTW here in Italy both new cases and new deaths have been steadily decreasing since several days
some WHO guy declared that the peak is not so far away... probably Spain is 5-7 days behind us (I hope less)

[Stray Electron]

Yeah...

This has probably been posted several times already, but just in case: https://virusncov.com/

That site looks almost identical to Worldometer <https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/>. If you click on the name of a country (the US for example) it will give you a state by state breakdown. New York is in deep trouble.

[Cerebus]

Can somebody comment/explain this?


and especially this:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

Yes, easily. He's an idiot.

And presumably you base that on watching the video? Odd then that you were able to respond at 19:01:56 to a comment posted at 18:59:59 - a whole 2 minutes to watch a 10 minute video and compose a comment about it? Impressive.

[Wallace Gasiewicz]

There are a few articles out there with positive patients who are asymptomatic.
Here is one:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32146694/

Other studies have shown huge problems with the testing showing lots of false positives.
It is a new test and different countries are using different tests.
If you really want to confuse yourself here is another article

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/925523

In the end if someone is sick, IN MY OPINION,the physician should treat the most likely cause, here a proven reliable test would be helpful because symptoms of flu and covid  have a large overlap.
We really do not know the sensitivity and specificity of the current tests yet, medical tests have false positives and false negatives. I am sure there are articles published but these tests are so new one must take them with a modicum of uncertainty.
I know I am referencing articles from China and I must admit there is always a bit of doubt about their veracity.
I am adding another reference
https://www.dw.com/en/up-to-30-of-coronavirus-cases-asymptomatic/a-52900988

[iMo]

Can somebody comment/explain this?
and especially this:

I would say he thinks aloud whether the scientific community can, or is willing (because of the panic) to discuss critically (aka critical thinking) how is the contribution of the cases caused by the known "old" corona viruses during the season (as there is a large number of various "corona viruses" existing, they usually mixing with influenza viruses during the season) versus the current contribution of "sars-cov-2 corona virus". You have to be good in german to understand the "nuances" of his loud thinking (not reading the subtitles), while I can I would say he indicates that he thinks the scientists have got a pretty hard time today to discuss that "critically".

[not1xor1]

Officially getting my hopes up
(Attachment Link)
However i'm not really being sold on the data from other countries (huge slow down in US,UK,Germany and france all at once  )

one problem is that here in Italy we update the figure once a day while other countries do that more often

to get a better idea you should compare the timelines reported by wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom#Timeline

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany#Timeline_by_state

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_France#Timeline

and so on

besides that while we were caught completely off-guard, some people in those countries is likely to have started to care even before any measure of the respective governments... we were the canary in the coal mine 

people of other countries, if not their governments, has had some more time to get ready for this mess

[not1xor1]

Can somebody comment/explain this?


and especially this:

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

he makes me fall asleep 
can anybody summarize that ?

[not1xor1]

Can somebody comment/explain this?
and especially this:

I would say he thinks aloud whether the scientific community can, or is willing (because of the panic) to discuss critically how is the contribution of the cases caused by the known "old" corona viruses during the season (as there is a large number of various "corona viruses" existing, they usually mixing with influenza viruses during the season) versus the current contribution of "sars-cov-2 corona virus". You have to be good in german to understand the "nuances" of his loud thinking, while I can I would say he indicates that he thinks the scientists have got a pretty hard time today to discuss that "critically".

there is a limited (not at all large) amount of coronaviruses able to infect humans:
- Human Coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E)
- Human Coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43)
- Human Coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63)
- Human Coronavirus HKU1 (HCoV-HFU1[3])
- Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV)
- MERS-CoV (AKA Human Coronavirus Erasmus Medical Center/2012 HCoV-EMC/2012)
- Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)

the first four have been with us since centuries and just cause flu like symptoms

SARS and MERS are deadly, while SARS-CoV-2 might became as mild as the first four once we get vaccines (and herd immunity)

besides that, yes, COVID-19 tests are new, may be not the same in each country and like most medical tests give a (still unclear) percentage of false positive/negative results

so what does that guy say we do not know yet?

[thinkfat]

Can somebody comment/explain this?

Yes, easily. He's an idiot.

And presumably you base that on watching the video? Odd then that you were able to respond at 19:01:56 to a comment posted at 18:59:59 - a whole 2 minutes to watch a 10 minute video and compose a comment about it? Impressive.

Well, you got me. I admit it: my life doesn't entirely revolve around this forum and this thread in particular. Despite my perceived obsession with this ongoing discussion, I do obtain information from outside of this bubble of opinions.

Let's just say: he's a well known figure claiming that the whole "corona pandemic" is completely blown out of proportion by virologists and politicians. "Nothing to see here, move along!". I didn't even watch the video until just now, I was pretty sure to know what's going to be in it.

I'm not sure if I can sum up his arguments in a few sentences, but as far as I got it:

* The test kits for SARS-CoV-2 are sensitive to many Corona viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.
* Corona viruses are endemic, you find them everywhere.
* It's impossible to figure out if somebody died from infection with SARS-CoV-2 or from any other cause.
* There is no pandemic, it's just normal flu season and the panic is just due to testing with flawed methods.

[drussell]

"hey, we need a gazillion retired doctors and other medical professionals to get back to work,

While at first that might sound like a good idea, most of those retired doctors fall squarely in the most at-risk groups for death if they end up contracting the virus.  Given the current lack of reliable  PPE supply and the likelihood for gaps in proper protection procedures for at least the short-to-medium term, bringing a bunch of older doctors out of retirement may not actually be the best idea.

Graduating new doctors and nurses a bit early from their school programs, though, would probably make a lot of sense.  Being allowed to help with basic care, even if they haven't technically completed every requirement yet might be rather useful very soon.

[not1xor1]

I'm not sure if I can sum up his arguments in a few sentences, but as far as I got it:

* The test kits for SARS-CoV-2 are sensitive to many Corona viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.
* Corona viruses are endemic, you find them everywhere.
* It's impossible to figure out if somebody died from infection with SARS-CoV-2 or from any other cause.
* There is no pandemic, it's just normal flu season and the panic is just due to testing with flawed methods.

so he's just the usual nut who pretends he is the only one who knows the truth while all the other guys are just fools...

[not1xor1]

"hey, we need a gazillion retired doctors and other medical professionals to get back to work,

While at first that might sound like a good idea, most of those retired doctors fall squarely in the most at-risk groups for death if they end up contracting the virus.  Given the current lack of reliable  PPE supply and the likelihood for gaps in proper protection procedures for at least the short-to-medium term, bringing a bunch of older doctors out of retirement may not actually be the best idea.

Graduating new doctors and nurses a bit early from their school programs, though, would probably make a lot of sense.  Being allowed to help with basic care, even if they haven't technically completed every requirement yet might be rather useful very soon.

they had to rely on both measures in the most stricken part of Italy
tenths of doctors have died during the last month

[nctnico]

I'm not sure if I can sum up his arguments in a few sentences, but as far as I got it:

* The test kits for SARS-CoV-2 are sensitive to many Corona viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.
* Corona viruses are endemic, you find them everywhere.
* It's impossible to figure out if somebody died from infection with SARS-CoV-2 or from any other cause.
* There is no pandemic, it's just normal flu season and the panic is just due to testing with flawed methods.

so he's just the usual nut who pretends he is the only one who knows the truth while all the other guys are just fools...

Yes. The typical Youtube mis-information clickbait.

[drussell]

they had to rely on both measures in the most stricken part of Italy
tenths of doctors have died during the last month

Yes, I know....  A terrible situation all the way around.

Our thoughts are with all of those affected.