Covid 19 virus

[thinkfat]

We should get Bill Gates involved. The guy has been fighting viruses since Windows 95.

He also held a memorable TED talk about 5 years ago about the threat of pandemics.

[iMo]

I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
Leo

Now think of that a little bit more. If you have no symptoms then it is unlikely you cough and/or sneeze. So what is the primary carrier of the infection in such a case? How does the virus jump from one person to the other?

People sneeze and cough for many reasons even they are not infected. They also spread droplets when they talk.
With asymptomatic sars-cov-2 carrier - they may touch their nose or mouth with their hands. Wearing the face mask will make nose-picking more difficult..

PS: The US will be reopened by Easter [CNN]

[engrguy42]

Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks? 

Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.

But if you're really smart you'll grab one of them big 5 gallon water bottles and wrap it around your head instead. 

[Cerebus]

The worrying thing here is you sound like you know what you're talking about, and that might lead people to take what you're saying seriously. Then you betray the fact that you're clueless right at the end, which immediately casts doubt on anything you say.

I'm aware of that study that suggests the virus easily survives days on plastic or metal surfaces and stays active. This has been demonstrated in the lab only, by infecting bacteria cultures in a petri dish. It's not yet clear how/if this study can be transferred into real world risk. The study only shows, if you put a droplet full of virus onto a plastic or metal sheet and then let it dry for a certain amount of time (some hours, days) the virus is still able to infect a petri dish full of bacteria in optimal environment.

I don't wish to be unnecessarily harsh by using words like "clueless", but one should not be trusted to offer or promulgate biomedical information if you think that a human virus will replicate in "petri dish full of bacteria". Anybody who knows anything about biology, medicine, pathology or virology knows that statement to be 100% wrong. (See wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus and scroll down to "host range" if you don't believe me.)

Edit: For the record, samples recovered from surfaces were actually cultured in cells of the Vero E6 line, which is a particular cell line of kidney epithelial cells originally derived from an African green monkey and used for laboratory tissue culture. (Paper HERE

[Mr. Scram]

You didn't address any of what I just said above.
I linked to the recommendations of the WHO that clearly imply that masks are to be used if you may be infected, or if you're dealing with someone who is. The WHO you keep mentioning writes that. Have you actually read what they say?

The only thing I'm questioning at this point concerning what they say is that they seem to restrict the use of masks only if you or someone you have to be close to is infected, and my questioning is because there are likely a lot of people not showing any symptom but that are also clear potential vectors.

I do not agree again that only if you cough or sneeze heavily you're a hazard. We keep emitting very small droplets all the time without noticing it. And anyway, we may just cough or sneeze randomly without being able to control it just because of dust or anything else. So my point is NO you don't have to have developed clear symptoms to be contagious.

Now given the scarcity of masks, it can make sense to be cautious about promoting them unreasonably. This is risk and resource management. I personally think that if they had recommended for everyone to wear masks regardless of their condition, this would have triggered an uncontrollable panic as we just can't provide them. That I understand fully. I also agree with the point that most people don't know how to put them on properly, but still think some barrier is better than none at all.

For the rest, I again haven't seen in the WHO recommendations a clear point saying that masks are useless, since they recommend using them in the above cases.

I've read what they say. They also say to only use masks if you know how to use them. That's not many people. As far as the droplets argument I'm going to point at my previous post about social distancing and argue that this will have occurred to the WHO. Their advice takes this into account and I don't think either of us are really qualified to second guess it. A barrier isn't necessarily better than none for reasons discussed. If anything this thread is a good illustration why the average Joe cannot be relied upon to follow simple advice and instructions. They'll do whatever seems right to them and potentially cause a disaster because they don't have a clue what they're doing.

[AlfBaz]

https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/aboard-the-ruby-princess-how-one-cruise-spawned-a-covid-19-outbreak-20200323-p54d2f.html

The NSW government and the Federal government fail to accept responsibility and accountability for this utter debacle, preferring to point the finger at each other. No leadership at all. They must fear what is going to happen to them because of this.

Reminds me of the NSW government and the dangerous iPad chargers being sold. An innocent young woman was electrocuted and they lied to the public to protect their own own arses.

So we know about these major stuff ups but I'm sure there a many we don't hear about.

Missus was listening to a worker at kmart. She was saying a 90 year old from an nearby retirement village visited the store on a bus every day. When asked why she hadn't contacted the village or informed the gentleman of the dangers he posed to his village, she responded that she had to follow protocol and inform her supervisor, which she hadn't done
My father in-law's village is in total lock down, or so we are led to beleive

[Mr. Scram]

Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks? 

Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.

But if you're really smart you'll grab one of them big 5 gallon water bottles and wrap it around your head instead. 

It can hurt. That's the whole point. 

[iMo]

Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks? 

Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.

But if you're really smart you'll grab one of them big 5 gallon water bottles and wrap it around your head instead. 

Imagine that $$ court trials in US when someone gets asphyxiated while wearing a mask made of a CocaCola bottle..

[engrguy42]

I honestly have to say how impressed I am at so many of the contributors here. I mean, it was all I could handle in college to get just an Engineering degree. I was totally tapped out. I can't even imagine how some of you managed to get TWO degrees, Engineering PLUS Medicine or Virology Research or whatever the hell it's called.

Wow. Just wow.

 

[Kasper]

I would like to think this case would be different but in the past I have been a good example of a bad PPE user.

When I started wearing a helmet for snowboarding, I started crashing more because I felt safer and did stupider things.

I've barely seen anyone wearing masks where I'm at.  Haven't really gone out much though.  When I wear masks it's for home renos and I touch my face a fair bit because the mask is annoying.

I hope when masks are encouraged, the encouragement comes with instructions for proper use.

[CatalinaWOW]

First I am going to say that I have only the average handyman/layman's knowledge of use of N95 and other protective masks.  I really must depend on health professionals to give definitive advice on when and how to wear masks.  But I am going to follow that with a big YAAH BUT.

First, the professional advice varies.  There are many reasons for that, including varying expertise of the professionals, incomplete science on the subject as relates to this virus.  But in my opinion, most importantly because their advice is intended to be optimum for a particular question.  It is important whether that question is:  What is the best advice for mask use to protect health professionals in a time of mask shortage?  What is the best advice for mask use to protect overall public health in a time of mask shortage.  What is the best advice to protect the health of a family or other small group in a time of mask shortage?  What is the best advice to protect personal health.  And repeat the first three questions without the shortage qualifier.  I strongly suspect that the answer is different in for some of these cases.  Maybe different only in nuanced ways, but possibly dramatically different.

Another example where the optimum advice might vary involves the merits of a valved mask vs non-valved.  It has been my personal experience that valved masks do not become humid and soggy as do non-valved masks, while it has been asserted that valved masks are not as good at controlling droplet emission from the user.  That generates a classic conflict in requirements that might lead to a preference for one type in one environment and the other under other conditions. 

I suspect we will watch these changing conditions play out over time in different parts of the world and watch the professional advice change along with the changes.  Best advice for us amateurs is to pay attention to the local recommendations.

[nctnico]

A sample of some South Korean people thoughts on how they think their country is faring better than others.

Likely the Korean people are better prepared for outbreaks after the SARS outbreak. Including instructions & training on how to use masks effectively.

[VK3DRB]

Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks? 

Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.

"You seen 'em, you play 'em." (Buster Scruggs)

I bought 50 masks about 5 years ago and have mailed some out to those in need in concealed packages because of mask theft in the mail.

Crime will be different now. As India is in lock down we won't be getting as many phone calls from low-life Microsoft Help Desk scammers for a couple of weeks. I suspect house burglaries will plummet. Carjackings will drop. Some good side effects will come out of this virus.

[Mr. Scram]

"You seen 'em, you play 'em." (Buster Scruggs)

I bought 50 masks about 5 years ago and have mailed some out to those in need in concealed packages because of mask theft in the mail.

Crime will be different now. As India is in lock down we won't be getting as many phone calls from low-life Microsoft Help Desk scammers for a couple of weeks. I suspect house burglaries will plummet. Carjackings will drop. Some good side effects will come out of this virus.

Crime may drop and seems to do so in areas locked down. A swathe of criminal minds sitting on their hands can't be good news though.

[jonovid]

The unintended consequences of a 4 to 12 week coronavirus lockdown are shock & change to the core consumer culture!
goods & services once most valued are now no longer desirable or just forgotten!. physically going out maybe too difficult. too expensive.
if millennials were killing it back in 2019 , now coronavirus has totally utterly cremated it & buried the ashes in 2020.
all them public places may just start to disappear, as new habits & new technology fills up the gaps in our lives.
once filled by watching live ball sports, drunking , eating in public, and traveling to other places just to do the same.
by far the worst is inflation, making once desirable going out, physically going there, way too expensive for most of us.
private vehicle ownership, home ownership , international travel , club memberships , private educations  , cheap consumer electronics.
the golden age of the consumer maybe over!  the great depression of the 1930s was followed by War! not a consumer bailout.
even if the banks get a bailout. the sheer weight and size of all the failed derivatives may will sink the financial markets.
coronavirus is not just another thing that ends in weeks or so you can move on, no  its a permanent scar on this civilization! 
if this is no the case I would be very surprised.   consumer confidence just got king-hit in the face!

[not1xor1]

A sample of some South Korean people thoughts on how they think their country is faring better than others.

SK South Korea death vs amount of cases is increasing and currently 1.379% (126/9137*100)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

in SK South Korea the virus at first spread within a religious sect and the vast majority of affected people were young women, i.e. one of the lowest risk group, so mortality there appeared much lower than in other parts of the world

in Italy and Spain the virus started in hospitals and nursing homes and so in some parts of the countries the mortality rate may even be around 10%

IMHO China strategy is better, I just wish it could be enforced here in Italy where we are still far from seeing a substantial improvement (we are unsure if there is a real albeit small improvement or if that is due to other confounding factors)

BTW viral check has always a small percentage of false negatives and even real negative people may become positive while they wait the test result

[iMo]

in SK KR the virus at first spread within a religious sect

KR - South Korea
KP - North Korea
SK - Slovakia

[Electro Detective]

..As India is in lock down we won't be getting as many phone calls from low-life Microsoft Help Desk scammers for a couple of weeks..

Hey yeah, no tard voiced cold calls for a while now 

or they got fed up with the awesome european mates inspired    gutter insults delivered in aussie speak    
and imitating their cloned voices and useless predictable sales spin they parrot from their screen 

 

[thinkfat]

Geez, you guys are still arguing about freakin' masks? 

Wear 'em if you got 'em. Can't hurt.

But if you're really smart you'll grab one of them big 5 gallon water bottles and wrap it around your head instead. 

It can hurt. That's the whole point. 

People here playing with numbers tell you you're 50% likely to be in the same space as an infected person while shopping food. Without getting hung up on the assumptions going into these calculation and their merits, let's just assume it being very likely. You'll casually meet this person with a certain probability. You'll become infected with a certain probability. Now imagine everyone wears a scarf in front of their mouth. Does this reduce the risk of getting infected or not?

In the end, your whole train of argument boils down to just one: People shouldn't wear masks because they will feel protected and exhibit risky behavior. But they do that anyway and wearing protection isn't going to make it worse. The instructions and procedures for wearing face masks are designed for highly infectious and hazardous environments. Your local Costco is no such environment. The London Underground - not so sure. Best avoid entirely, with a mask or not.

The whole idea behind all recommendations to not wear masks is anyway not increased risk of infection to the wearer, but because they are needed elsewhere and creating additional competition for the resource is a really bad idea right now. If the resource was plentiful, nobody would be making such recommendation. Rather, the opposite.

Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.

[iMo]

..
Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.

The major problem I see is the many nations/cultures tend to look after an easy solutions to this pandemic problem.

So when you advice "wear a face mask" they tend to think they will get a big box with face masks delivered to their doorstep, with an "user manual" inside, and they will wear a mask and their life will continue exactly as it was before..

But wearing a mask is only one thing off MANY others you shall to do.

There are measures at State level (a long list) and then a list what general public should do (a shorter list).

Wearing a face mask is NOT a substitution for "stay at home, do social distancing, wash your hands, ..". You shall DO ALL..

Thus the thought like "wearing a face mask could give you a false feeling of safety" indicates an absolute misunderstanding of the overall process. And the authorities in some countries shall be really careful with what they are telling to their citizens in that matter.

[nctnico]

Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.

Wrong again.  FFS read the WHO recommendations and the reasons posted earlier why (untrained) Joe average shouldn't be messing around with masks!
There is absolutely no scientific backing from the WHO for your opinions which you try to represent as facts.

[Mr. Scram]

People here playing with numbers tell you you're 50% likely to be in the same space as an infected person while shopping food. Without getting hung up on the assumptions going into these calculation and their merits, let's just assume it being very likely. You'll casually meet this person with a certain probability. You'll become infected with a certain probability. Now imagine everyone wears a scarf in front of their mouth. Does this reduce the risk of getting infected or not?

In the end, your whole train of argument boils down to just one: People shouldn't wear masks because they will feel protected and exhibit risky behavior. But they do that anyway and wearing protection isn't going to make it worse. The instructions and procedures for wearing face masks are designed for highly infectious and hazardous environments. Your local Costco is no such environment. The London Underground - not so sure. Best avoid entirely, with a mask or not.

The whole idea behind all recommendations to not wear masks is anyway not increased risk of infection to the wearer, but because they are needed elsewhere and creating additional competition for the resource is a really bad idea right now. If the resource was plentiful, nobody would be making such recommendation. Rather, the opposite.

Again: a mask on Joe Averages' face will not protect him. But it will protect others from Joe spreading the virus without knowing. But so does a scarf. Should you therefore wear a mask that would better suit a medical professional - NO. Should you wear a scarf - Yes, by all means.

No, not by all means. We've been over this a couple of times now and the answers remain the same. You're forgetting the part where untrained people touch all kinds of things they shouldn't touch and may very well make things worse. Dispensing advice which differs from the WHO guidelines is a huge risk even for a well respected medical professional. Even when it's well intended laymen should probably refrain from doing so.

[engrguy42]

People who 2 weeks ago thought WHO was a rock group are now experts.   

(okay, that wasn't mine, I heard it from a friend yesterday, but still it's hilarious).

[Mr. Scram]

People who 2 weeks ago thought WHO was a rock group are now experts.   

(okay, that wasn't mine, I heard it from a friend yesterday, but still it's hilarious).

Experts who know better than the actual experts at that. You either need a lot more than two PhDs for that, or a lot less. 

[Siwastaja]

Experts who know better than the actual experts at that. You either need a lot more than two PhDs for that, or a lot less. 

This is called "appeal to authority", and is utterly stupid here, because everyone here has looked at what WHO and other expert groups have to say. The fact that some others have reached a different conclusion than you, in a really complex matter, does not mean that you are now officially representing WHO and have understood everything they say 100% correctly. You can agree to disagree, but laughing at others like you are some magical God of the True Information sent by WHO not only makes you look stupid, it's detrimental to the quality of discussion. Maybe just drop it? No need to run in circles for pages after pages.