Covid 19 virus

[iMo]

An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.

The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.

You may read the WHO recommendation aloud to the overcrowded people in the London Underground carriages before they sneeze in someone else's face. Btw, I saw once a "droplet" around 2cm large flying several meters off the sneezing guy 

FYI - the masks exercise ie CZ runs is because the Wearers of the masks DO NOT KNOW they are infected (as 80% of infected get only mild or none symptoms and many of them do not realize they are infected at all).

[nctnico]

Complete waste of time asking NOT to pull that kind of trick, wasn't it? In what way is a mask going to be similar to having your knees rammed up your arse?

Nah, forget it. I can see it was a bad move to attempt any discussion in this thread.

The issue is that some people override the recommendations of the WHO and additional evidence presented in favour of their own seat of the pants reasoning.

No, the issue is that totally inappropriate stuff is being passed off as similar. You've pointed out some issues and the Telegraph has been quoted. They're appropriate. Suggesting wearing a mask is like having your legs blown off is not, and just ensures no-one listens to such hyperbolic cobblers.

OK, I'm sorry about the hyperbolic. Putting your feet on the dashboard only endangers yourself. Using a mask the wrong way endangers not only yourself but others too. So all in all the situations where safety devices are being used wrong aren't 100% similar. Happy now?

[thinkfat]

An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.

The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.

There's a study that hints (if I didn't misinterpret what I heard about it), 44% of transmissions happen before patients show symptoms, i.e. before they're coughing and sneezing. Make everybody wear a mask (scarf, buff, whatever)  - 44% of transmissions gone.

Source: my currently favourite podcast:

Sorry, German language. Maybe Youtube adds an automatic translation.
EDIT: IT does, but the translation is completely unusable gibberish.

[SilverSolder]

An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.

The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.

There's a study that hints (if I'm didn't misinterpret what I heard about it), 44% of transmissions happen before patients show symptoms, i.e. before they're coughing and sneezing. Make everybody wear a mask (scarf, buff, whatever)  - 44% of transmissions gone.

Source: my currently favourite podcast:

Sorry, German language. Maybe Youtube adds an automatic translation.

Wearing masks seems to work for the Asian countries.

[engrguy42]

FWIW, attached is some data generated from the daily W.H.O. situation reports, including the latest update today (March 24). The chart shows the total deaths to date in the US (yellow bars), as well as the new deaths each day in the US since the start (dark blue bars).

Note that for the last week or so the new deaths each day in the US has been fairly flat, in the 40-60 range, except for yesterday's report which showed a huge spike of 201 new deaths. Today's report dropped back down to 69 new deaths.

Also is a spreadsheet list of the total deaths and new deaths as of today for the 8 countries with the top numbers of total deaths since the beginning. FWIW, the US is presently in 6th place, with 471 deaths so far. Italy has the most at this point with 6,077 total deaths.

I also included the new deaths for today for those 8 countries. Italy and Spain had the most (601 and 462, respectively), with the US at 69 new deaths, and China the least with 7.   

[PlainName]

Risk compensation, yes. However, wearing a mask in the current situation isn't necessarily akin to isolating vs going down the pub. If one has to go shopping then the behaviour will be the same during that trip with or without the mask, wouldn't it?

If trained medical personnel changes behaviour and somewhat less trained food industry personnel does you can bet your bottom dollar laymen will. It also distracts from the proven important hand hygiene.

I think that's extrapolating from the wrong situation. A medical person is doing this kind of thing as a job all the time, and the perceived level of risk is quite low to start with so it's easy to be lax. The general public right now, OTOH, are shit-scared and have just had a sci-fi horror dumped on then over a couple of days. Regardless of protection, their perceived level of risk is sky high. A mask will be thought of as a help but not a solution and won't affect the perceived risk much at all, so they're still unlikely to be taking the kind of risk a relaxed professional might do when his mind isn't on the job.

[PlainName]

Happy now?

Thank you.

[Mr. Scram]

Wearing masks seems to work for the Asian countries.

I'm pretty sure it's not the masks they wear but the medicinal properties of the bats they eat. Speculating is fun!

[Mr. Scram]

I think that's extrapolating from the wrong situation. A medical person is doing this kind of thing as a job all the time, and the perceived level of risk is quite low to start with so it's easy to be lax. The general public right now, OTOH, are shit-scared and have just had a sci-fi horror dumped on then over a couple of days. Regardless of protection, their perceived level of risk is sky high. A mask will be thought of as a help but not a solution and won't affect the perceived risk much at all, so they're still unlikely to be taking the kind of risk a relaxed professional might do when his mind isn't on the job.

It's no extrapolation. Both health and food professionals have been shown by the CDC to often be more lax when it comes to hygiene with protection than without. They know why hygiene is important and that this behaviour change is a thing but it still happens. It's why protection is discouraged unless there's a verifiable advantage or risk.

Of course, the public at large takes all kinds of risks they don't even know about. That's a real part of the problem. They just do things they think are right but it's a total crapshoot.

[Mr. Scram]

There's a study that hints (if I didn't misinterpret what I heard about it), 44% of transmissions happen before patients show symptoms, i.e. before they're coughing and sneezing. Make everybody wear a mask (scarf, buff, whatever)  - 44% of transmissions gone.

Source: my currently favourite podcast:

Sorry, German language. Maybe Youtube adds an automatic translation.
EDIT: IT does, but the translation is completely unusable gibberish.

You're assuming a lot. What's the advantage when they're not sneezing or coughing? It's much more likely these patients are spreading it via their hands after touching parts of their body. This is why the WHO is emphasizing hand hygiene. It works both ways!

[vad]

I’ve noticed that Amazon has been pushing back delivery dates to late April. As Amazon Prime member I’m used to free 2-day and even next day delivery. I browsed Amazon for few things yesterday and today, and I’ve noticed that many items had magical delivery date of April 22. Some items were still available for delivery this or next week, but most had that strange ETA.

Is Amazon shutting down some of its distribution centers?

[Mr. Scram]

On the other hand, wearing masks in public is now mandatory in many places, for example Hong Kong and the Czech Republic.  Is WHO telling those countries to change their rules?  (Answer: no)

Here's a good article about the inconsistent and illogical messaging on this subject:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html

Do they need to address each country when their advice differs explicitly? The WHO may not have all the answers but you can be bloody sure their advice is more evidence based than that of most countries.

[Leo Bodnar]

I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
Leo

[Mr. Scram]

I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
Leo

I feel we're going round in circles. The issue is that people don't have the proper training and discipline. They are likely to tug at infected masks and display more risky behaviour.

[SiliconWizard]

An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing without one is definitely a worse idea.

The WHO recommendation for infected people is to stay inside. An infected person spitting, coughing and sneezing outside is a bad idea full stop.

I think we all agree on this.

By now I have gotten that you'll be stubborn with this mask thing until the cows come home anyway. I just hope you never have to get out yourself so that it doesn't have any consequence.

But do you realize, just from the above sentence, that there is a fundamental flaw? One thing we know is that there are probably MANY people infected but without any visible symptom. We are all spitting small droplets all the time even without realizing it, and it's likely more than enough to infect someone else nearby. No need to be coughing and sneezing like crazy. (As SilverSolder also just noted, anything decently dense in front of your mouth and nose can only help with that. Doesn't mean you should just get out with your mask and teasingly cough at anyone your run into. )

Knowing that obvious fact, the part we can read here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

- If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.
- Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.

Sentence 1 clearly implies that wearing a mask helps protecting yourself.

Sentence 2, from what I said above, seems stupid. Sorry WHO. You don't need to be coughing or sneezing to be potentially infected.

That said, neither of those recommendations claim that masks are useless either.

[nctnico]

I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)
Leo

Now think of that a little bit more. If you have no symptoms then it is unlikely you cough and/or sneeze. So what is the primary carrier of the infection in such a case? How does the virus jump from one person to the other?

- If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.
- Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.

Sentence 2, from what I said above, seems stupid. Sorry WHO. You don't need to be coughing or sneezing to be potentially infected.

In sentence 2 the WHO implies that you are sick and are coughing and/or sneezing regulary.

[Mr. Scram]

SiliconWizard, I may be stubborn but at least I don't hand wave and pretend to know better than the authority on the matter. Do you really think your arguments haven't occurred to an institute's worth of health care professionals?

[Mr. Scram]

Now think of that a little bit more. If you have no symptoms then it is unlikely you cough and/or sneeze. So what is the primary carrier of the infection in such a case? How does the virus jump from one person to the other?

Spontaneous French kissing would be my guess.

[Someone]

A mask only works if the wearer knows how to use a mask.

For varying values of 'work'. If you wear a mask incorrectly, does it do anything at all? I would suggest it has some effect - it won't be the 'proper' working fully protective effect, but it would surely be better than nothing at all, wouldn't it?

Kind of like if you wear a crash helmet incorrectly it's not going to be as effective as if you did it up properly, but there's a non-zero possibility that it will lessen a bash on your bonce all the same. [OK, not quite analogous because an incorrectly worn helmet might kill you whereas a mask won't, but let's not go down that kind of rabbit hole.]

An incorrectly worn mask can increase the risk to the user, its a very apt comparison. Also that helmets are tested to a narrow range of function (direct blows to the head) and face masks are similarly synthetically tested without taking account of real world effects.

Those of us who have been trained for working with infectious substances might be able to use a mask effectively, but know its not applicable to the wider community. Most people (even in hospitality where they are supposed to be trained) don't use gloves/bags/tongs effectively for public food handling.

I recall that around 75% of infections in Wuhan were caused by asymptomatic carriers.
Don't forget that you can cough or sneeze irrespective of the fact that you are also carrying SARS-CoV-2 but have not had any symptoms yet (average is around 5.1 days.)

I feel we're going round in circles. The issue is that people don't have the proper training and discipline. They are likely to tug at infected masks and display more risky behaviour.

Which is why the advice to sneeze into an cocked elbow is a good public measure, not many people are going to be unconsciously touching that part of their body.

[thinkfat]

There's a study that hints (if I didn't misinterpret what I heard about it), 44% of transmissions happen before patients show symptoms, i.e. before they're coughing and sneezing. Make everybody wear a mask (scarf, buff, whatever)  - 44% of transmissions gone.

You're assuming a lot. What's the advantage when they're not sneezing or coughing? It's much more likely these patients are spreading it via their hands after touching parts of their body. This is why the WHO is emphasizing hand hygiene. It works both ways!

Well. They're still spitting while talking, virus-laden aerosol exits their mouths. Everybody does, it's inevitable. And everybody coughs now and then, maybe because the throat has become dry while talking. It's known that the virus replicates mainly in the throat during the initial phase of the infection. This is where the main virus load comes from, and this is the main transmission vector before symptoms begin to show. The virus spread in Berlin mainly through clubs. On the dance floor, at the bar. Loud music, you shout into the face of your peer because he/she cannot hear your otherwise - bam.

After the coughing and sneezing starts, the risk for transmission through smear infection comes from coughing and sneezing into your hands and then touching stuff or other people. This is what the WHO recommendation is targeting. Not only through washing your hands but also through "sneezing and coughing hygiene" (into your elbow, not into your hands, because you don't touch door handles and other people with the inner side of your elbow).

I'm aware of that study that suggests the virus easily survives days on plastic or metal surfaces and stays active. This has been demonstrated in the lab only, by infecting bacteria cultures in a petri dish. It's not yet clear how/if this study can be transferred into real world risk. The study only shows, if you put a droplet full of virus onto a plastic or metal sheet and then let it dry for a certain amount of time (some hours, days) the virus is still able to infect a petri dish full of bacteria in optimal environment.

[VK3DRB]

https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/aboard-the-ruby-princess-how-one-cruise-spawned-a-covid-19-outbreak-20200323-p54d2f.html

The NSW government and the Federal government fail to accept responsibility and accountability for this utter debacle, preferring to point the finger at each other. No leadership at all. They must fear what is going to happen to them because of this.

Reminds me of the NSW government and the dangerous iPad chargers being sold. An innocent young woman was electrocuted and they lied to the public to protect their own own arses.

[VK3DRB]

We should get Bill Gates involved. The guy has been fighting viruses since Windows 95.

[Mr. Scram]

Well. They're still spitting while talking, virus-laden aerosol exits their mouths. Everybody does, it's inevitable. And everybody coughs now and then, maybe because the throat has become dry while talking. It's known that the virus replicates mainly in the throat during the initial phase of the infection. This is where the main virus load comes from, and this is the main transmission vector before symptoms begin to show. The virus spread in Berlin mainly through clubs. On the dance floor, at the bar. Loud music, you shout into the face of your peer because he/she cannot hear your otherwise - bam.

After the coughing and sneezing starts, the risk for transmission through smear infection comes from coughing and sneezing into your hands and then touching stuff or other people. This is what the WHO recommendation is targeting. Not only through washing your hands but also through "sneezing and coughing hygiene" (into your elbow, not into your hands, because you don't touch door handles and other people with the inner side of your elbow).

I'm aware of that study that suggests the virus easily survives days on plastic or metal surfaces and stays active. This has been demonstrated in the lab only, by infecting bacteria cultures in a petri dish. It's not yet clear how/if this study can be transferred into real world risk. The study only shows, if you put a droplet full of virus onto a plastic or metal sheet and then let it dry for a certain amount of time (some hours, days) the virus is still able to infect a petri dish full of bacteria in optimal environment.

I have no doubt the WHO is aware of this. It seems likely this is why the WHO recommends social and physical distancing. It's easier to implement, more foolproof and less likely to backfire and less of a burden on resources.

[SiliconWizard]

SiliconWizard, I may be stubborn but at least I don't hand wave and pretend to know better than the authority on the matter. Do you really think your arguments haven't occurred to an institute's worth of health care professionals?

You didn't address any of what I just said above.
I linked to the recommendations of the WHO that clearly imply that masks are to be used if you may be infected, or if you're dealing with someone who is. The WHO you keep mentioning writes that. Have you actually read what they say?

The only thing I'm questioning at this point concerning what they say is that they seem to restrict the use of masks only if you or someone you have to be close to is infected, and my questioning is because there are likely a lot of people not showing any symptom but that are also clear potential vectors.

I do not agree again that only if you cough or sneeze heavily you're a hazard. We keep emitting very small droplets all the time without noticing it. And anyway, we may just cough or sneeze randomly without being able to control it just because of dust or anything else. So my point is NO you don't have to have developed clear symptoms to be contagious.

Now given the scarcity of masks, it can make sense to be cautious about promoting them unreasonably. This is risk and resource management. I personally think that if they had recommended for everyone to wear masks regardless of their condition, this would have triggered an uncontrollable panic as we just can't provide them. That I understand fully. I also agree with the point that most people don't know how to put them on properly, but still think some barrier is better than none at all.

For the rest, I again haven't seen in the WHO recommendations a clear point saying that masks are useless, since they recommend using them in the above cases.

[edavid]

I’ve noticed that Amazon has been pushing back delivery dates to late April. As Amazon Prime member I’m used to free 2-day and even next day delivery. I browsed Amazon for few things yesterday and today, and I’ve noticed that many items had magical delivery date of April 22. Some items were still available for delivery this or next week, but most had that strange ETA.

Is Amazon shutting down some of its distribution centers?

"The e-commerce giant is prioritizing household staples and other high-demand items during the coronavirus pandemic."

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/3/22/21190372/amazon-prime-delivery-delays-april-21-coronavirus-covid-19