Covid 19 virus

[not1xor1]

The US looks to me like it is accelerating, rather than flattening out...

yes, it is flattening just in Italy as first quarantine measures have been taken weeks ago

it does take time for those measure to show any result and yet we can't be sure they are working yet (even if new cases figures as percentage of previous total amount have been displaying a constant lowering trend)
let's hope for the best

unfortunately other countries have not learnt from mistakes in Italy and acted slowly so they shall have to wait a bit longer to see any improvement

[paulca]

I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?

Quite possibly both. It can be true yet so rare that it for all intents and purposes doesn't happen.

Seen two reports locally of groups of kids shouting at police (fairly normal), but coughing on each other and claiming they all have the virus and for the police to stay away.

Also reports in England of groups of lads coughing on an old couple.  They were tackled and beaten by members of the public which resulted in injuries all round including to the old people.

https://www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/belfast-news/coronavirus-northern-ireland-psni-hit-17963522
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52003543

When they shut the schools, this happened across the country.
https://www.irishnews.com/coronavirus/2020/03/21/news/coronavirus-end-of-school-parties-held-despite-impending-catastrophe--1874331/

As someone said.  Let us just remember who they were.  When this is over we can deal with them appropriately.  Personally I think being hung up by the arms in the town squares for all to see.

[mzzj]

Lets assume they manage to miraculously "regulate" the infection rate to level that the intensive care can cope with:
US has currently 45000 intensive care beds, maybe 30000 available for coronavirus cases with some extra capacity built and "loaned" from anesthetic units. Recovery in ICU takes maybe 1-2 weeks, lets assume 10 days. 11 million patients treated in ICU per year at maximum capacity.
IF coronavirus spreads equally to all age groups maybe 5% of infected need intensive care. 300 million population, 70% total infected, 11,5 million patients to ICU, -->need to delay this thing to 12 month misery.

Lots of unknown multiplied with each other but I think they need to come up with better strategy.

[hamster_nz]

Lets assume they manage to miraculously "regulate" the infection rate to level that the intensive care can cope with:
US has currently 45000 intensive care beds, maybe 30000 available for coronavirus cases with some extra capacity built and "loaned" from anesthetic units. Recovery in ICU takes maybe 1-2 weeks, lets assume 10 days. 11 million patients treated in ICU per year at maximum capacity.
IF coronavirus spreads equally to all age groups maybe 5% of infected need intensive care. 300 million population, 70% total infected, 11,5 million patients to ICU, -->need to delay this thing to 12 month misery.

Lots of unknown multiplied with each other but I think they need to come up with better strategy.

I think you dropped a digit. At a 10 day stay, each bed can do 36 cases per year. Capacity is 30,000 * 36 = 1,080,000 cases requiring ICU care per year.

Or look at it another way, with 30,000 beds, and the average stay is 10 days, then peak load is 30,000/10 = 3,000 new cases requiring ICU per day. As a check that gives 3000 * 365 = 1,095,000 ICU cases per year.

So for 11M ICU cases, you need about a decade.

[mzzj]

Lets assume they manage to miraculously "regulate" the infection rate to level that the intensive care can cope with:
US has currently 45000 intensive care beds, maybe 30000 available for coronavirus cases with some extra capacity built and "loaned" from anesthetic units. Recovery in ICU takes maybe 1-2 weeks, lets assume 10 days. 11 million patients treated in ICU per year at maximum capacity.
IF coronavirus spreads equally to all age groups maybe 5% of infected need intensive care. 300 million population, 70% total infected, 11,5 million patients to ICU, -->need to delay this thing to 12 month misery.

Lots of unknown multiplied with each other but I think they need to come up with better strategy.

I think you dropped a digit. At a 10 day stay, each bed can do 36 cases per year. Capacity is 30,000 * 36 = 1,080,000 cases requiring ICU care per year.

Or look at it another way, with 30,000 beds, and the average stay is 10 days, then peak load is 30,000/10 = 3,000 new cases requiring ICU per day. As a check that gives 3000 * 365 = 1,095,000 ICU cases per year.

So for 11M ICU cases, you need about a decade.

Damn, you are right, I lost a zero somewhere.

Makes it just more unrealistic scenario even if my ballpark numbers would be way off.

[hamster_nz]

...

So for 11M ICU cases, you need about a decade.

Damn, you are right, I lost a zero somewhere.

Makes it just more unrealistic scenario even if my ballpark numbers would be way off.

The MIT Press Reader came to the same conclusion:

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/flattening-the-coronavirus-curve-is-not-enough/

As did Imperial College London:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[iMo]

Instead of looking for "magic drug", waiting on Santa Claus with a bag with billions of face masks, and building millions of new ICUs with ventilators made by GM, simply follow the advice which works well:

1. always wear a DIY mask when outside your home,
2. stay at home,
3. do social distancing,
4. wash your hands.

Making a DIY textile mask takes a few minutes, you can cook the masks in your pot every day. That's it.

And your current ICUs will stay half empty.

[hamster_nz]

Instead of looking for "magic drug", waiting on Santa Claus with a bag with billions of face masks, and building millions of new ICUs with ventilators made by GM, simply follow the advice which works well - always wear a DIY mask when outside your home, stay at home, do social distancing, wash your hands.
Making a DIY textile mask takes a few minutes, you can cook the masks in your pot every day. That's it.
And your current ICUs will stay half empty.

Here's some detail on testing of home-made masks somebody pointed me at today. Of course not FDA approved or anything

[iMo]

@hamster_nz:
As has been said here several times: DIY mask works "good" for droplets you are breathing OUT.
Therefore your Country needs ALL CITIZENS shall wear the DIY face mask when outside of home.

[Leo Bodnar]

Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?
Leo

[nctnico]

Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?

Over here nobody wears a mask but most people do keep a distance. Keeping hands clean is also important. The virus can stay alive for many hours (assume up to a day) on many surfaces so if you go in a shop then it is very easy the get the virus from the trolley, baskets, doors, cashier's desk, etc. One infected person can easely infect multiple people that way over the course of many hours. All it takes is rubbing your eyes to transfer the virus from/to your hands. Yesterday I went shopping and sanitized my hands before entering the shops and after leaving the shops.

[thinkfat]

Dr. Drosten also mentioned that there may be a very simple explanation why some infected persons almost don't notice and other suffocate.

I found the episode now, it was in episode 15 already. But actually he said, "this is just an idea, not an explanation"

Ich sage jetzt ganz bewusst nicht Erklärung, sondern ich sage eine Hypothese. Eine Idee, die erklären könnte, warum einige Patienten, obwohl sie sehr jung sind, trotzdem einen schnellen, schweren Verlauf kriegen

Source: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/15-Coronavirus-Update-Infizierte-werden-offenbar-immun,podcastcoronavirus136.html

So, it's just one of many plausible hypotheses, that are worth testing through the scientific method.

[iMo]

I've just returned from shopping. A supermarket 30x60m. Around 50 people there. All wearing face masks. About 20% wearing gloves as well. I spent 14 minutes there. Every half of a minute I heard somebody sneezing or coughing.

[Leo Bodnar]

Here is a ballpark calculation for you.
Leo

I've just returned from shopping. A supermarket 30x60m. Around 50 people there. All wearing face masks. About 20% wearing gloves as well. I spent 14 minutes there. Every half of a minute I heard somebody sneezing or coughing.

[Zero999]

Here is a ballpark calculation for you.
Leo

I've just returned from shopping. A supermarket 30x60m. Around 50 people there. All wearing face masks. About 20% wearing gloves as well. I spent 14 minutes there. Every half of a minute I heard somebody sneezing or coughing.

That's only part of the story. The question is the probability of you catching it from one of them?

If we can get the R₀ down to below 1, then the number of cases will fall and it will die out eventually.

[thinkfat]

Masks are a double edged sword. They only really contribute something when the wearer is infectious and in that case the wearer shouldn't be outside. In all other cases it's a soggy rag which may allow viruses that landed on it to remain viable longer. It's also likely to shift and itch which means people may poke at it and contaminate themselves.

Ah, please. The main difficulty with this virus is that people spread it unknowingly because they hardly feel any symptoms and therefore have no urge to stay inside. Or they just have a cold and don't think they contracted the virus. If they were really sick they'd probably be in their beds. So if everyone wears a mask, DIY or other, it's going to help a lot!

[mzzj]

Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?
Leo

Funny, I have same mask and is that 3M goggles too?

[Leo Bodnar]

Yes! I've got GVS half-face and full-face mask, 3M goggles and half-face mask, disposable gloves - the full monty.  We are in this for a very long time.
When I started wearing a mask (but without goggles) two weeks ago most (if not all) people around thought I am an idiot.
I love my GVS mask for it's made in Britain!
Leo

Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?
Leo

Funny, I have same mask and is that 3M goggles too?

[iMo]

FYI - Today's information from Czechia's chief of the covid19 Task force (Czech TV briefing, face masks to wear outside your home is mandatory there for 2w already), I quote:
1. general public should avoid the respirators with those "exhalation valves" as they provide low resistance during exhalation, we want to lower down the amount of droplets which fly OUT from your mouth and nose..
2. who wants to wear those respirators with valves for whatever reason, please cover it with a textile mask in addition..

[iMo]

..
When I started wearing a mask (but without goggles) two weeks ago most (if not all) people around thought I am an idiot.

As I wrote before that attitude of the general public towards face masks can change within a day - two.
When the authorities explain the reason for wearing the face masks, explain the mechanism, and request that (in CZ under beefy fine), and, MOST NOTABLY - the authorities start to wear the masks everywhere and the general public can see them in TV every day wearing it. It works that way perfectly, I can confirm herewith..

PS: NY governor Mr. Cuomo just holds a briefing (CNN). If he wore a mask during the briefing, the next day the half of NY people would wear a mask.

[CatalinaWOW]

The dimensions of the mask problem were made clear to me when it was noted that one (one!) hospital in NY is burning through 40,000 masks a week, and they have not reached the expected peak of their infections.  I saw one report that the pre-emergency production rate was something like 5 million a month and various means were being used to raise that rate to 25 million which seemed like plenty until I saw that consumption number.  The consumption number doesn't seem totally out of line when you think of a thousand bed hospital.  It is only a little over six masks/day per bed.

Seems like creativity on re-use is going to be required.  Washing, baking, soaking in alcohol and drying and various other options (along with methods to do it in high volume) seems worth exploring, as tooling up to produce more in these quantities is not an overnight job.

[SiliconWizard]

Is anybody else actually wearing a mask? Or just talking about wearing a mask?

I have seen a few people over here with masks (outside of food shop/pharmacy workers), I'd say maybe like 20%, which surprised me as there's a definite shortage of masks, and the masks don't look DIY. Not sure where they get them from.

I get out very little these days as recommended, but when I have to, I haven't worn a mask yet. I try to stay away from anyone by like over 2 m, and when some stupid unfortunately passes by closer, I just stop inhaling. And of course I try to keep my mouth shut at all times.

I'll consider making DIY masks though.

[SiliconWizard]

Making a DIY textile mask takes a few minutes, you can cook the masks in your pot every day. That's it.

Can we make soups out of them?

[thinkfat]

Ah, please. The main difficulty with this virus is that people spread it unknowingly because they hardly feel any symptoms and therefore have no urge to stay inside. Or they just have a cold and don't think they contracted the virus. If they were really sick they'd probably be in their beds. So if everyone wears a mask, DIY or other, it's going to help a lot!

No! Thats very likely not how it works for reasons that were just explained. Masks aren't a magic solution and in the hands of the general public very likely a huge risk. These aren't health professionals nor food professionals. If you don't use personal protection properly there's a very real chance of making things a lot worse. Touch a mask just once and all bets are off.

Counter evidence: Everyone in Singapore wears a mask - it works. Everyone in Wuhan, maybe all of China wears a mask - it works. Make it clear to people _why_ they're wearing a mask and that it's not for self-protection and that it doesn't replace social distancing. Works everywhere in the world except the USA? I cannot believe that.

[thinkfat]

Making a DIY textile mask takes a few minutes, you can cook the masks in your pot every day. That's it.

Can we make soups out of them?

That depends on your taste. If you commonly eat from your node - suit yourself.