Covid 19 virus

[not1xor1]

No special antibiotics to cope with secondary infections at that time.

I'd rather say little problem with antibiotic resistant bacteria

As is often the way with these things those in know were making quite a lot of fuss about it back then. MRSA had been identified as a problem in the sixties and by around 1980 knowledge of increasing multi-drug resistance in bacteria was a commonplace among the scientific and medical community.
[...]

I agree with you, but they were not as wide spread and causing as many problems and deaths as they do now... and worldwide

BTW antibiotics are a natural product, they are the weapons used by various species of microorganisms to fight each other so antibiotic resistant bacteria have been found even in old samples taken before penicillin had been ever used

[thinkfat]

drussel, where do you get your numbers from? CDC doesn't report on weekends, and WHO's data is from Friday the 20th. And both of those agree on a figure of 15k.

I think it's important to choose a single and arguably reliable source rather than grabbing data from whatever pops up. I may be wrong, but in the US I would assume the final authority is the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), and I assume they forward that to WHO as official data, which is why WHO data seems to lag 1 day behind.

I have been getting my latest-case data from what is generally considered the most authoritative worldwide source, the CSSE aggregation page at Johns Hopkins University....

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

You can download their daily aggregate data in .CSV format via their github page:
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

I will admit right now that I was incorrect in my previous post on the number of new US cases that have been logged so far today.  I had inadvertently added the last two rows from New York and New Jersey twice (which I assume were essentially the results from yesterday's tests,) so my numbers were skewed up 4500+ cases....

The number added today in the US is "only" more like 9000 new cases, not the 13-something thousand that I thought it was when I quickly saw the inaccurate totals at the bottom of my spreadsheet when I hastily posted that comment before running out the door to one remaining jobsite, without actually fully importing the latest datasets...

Sorry...  My bad...

My working number now stands at 33,276 confirmed infected in the USA.

I'm sure the CDC will update their official numbers to reflect these latest state-by-state disclosures at some point in the next 24-72 hours or so.

I'm pretty sure reality will catch up with your predictions in no time. As long as we're in exponential growth, any number will serve as a prediction if it is high enough. It might just be a day or two off.

[mzzj]

What's the deal with Germany?
Plenty of cases, few deaths and hardly anyone in intensive care?
Or German authorities don't report people in intensive care because of privacy laws or sumthing?
(bit similar in here, they don't publish every detail including past sexual history of the coronavirus fatalities...)

[Ranayna]

To be honest, I do not follow the numbers, except for what I glimpse in the newspaper and occasionally on the radio. So I cannot comment on those, except that the effects are currently still quite low in my area. We have cases, but not many. The confirmed cases I saw in the paper on Saturday (so likely numbers from Friday) where in the single or low double digits for each district.
Despite going shopping roughly every two days, I have not yet seen any essentials out of stock in the supermarkets. Low stocks, yes, but not fully out.
I am living in a semi-rural area in the north-west of Germany.

Anyway, since yesterday, Germany has enacted what I would translate to "Movement Limitations".

- All non-essential customer facing businesses must close. Exceptions are: Supermarkets, Pharmacies, Doctors. Restaurants can only offer takeout or delivery. This is new, since before yesterday some businesses like barbers, "beauty shops", and similar, where still allowed to open.
- No more than two people may meet on public property. Exclusions only for families or people living in the same household.
- A mandatory distance of 1.5 meters to other people, where possible, has to be kept.

Stuff already in place for longer:
- All public events are cancelled
- Private events are either "strongly discouraged" or also prohibited, I'm not sure in that regard
- Schools are closed until at least Easter
- A generic travel advisory has been declared.

Discussions of fully tracking every citizen via their mobile phones have been shelved, for now at least.

[not1xor1]

What's the deal with Germany?
Plenty of cases, few deaths and hardly anyone in intensive care?
Or German authorities don't report people in intensive care because of privacy laws or sumthing?
(bit similar in here, they don't publish every detail including past sexual history of the coronavirus fatalities...)

Korea got a low mortality rate because most of infected people were young women (one of the lowest risk group)
Germany deaths figures are suspect. Let's hope they are real.
Other countries are obviously cheating (Russia, Iran). I'm afraid for poor nations that have even much less resources.

I think in 12 hours we'll see (just first 3 countries after China):
country   cases     deaths
Italy       67-68k   6.3-6.4k
US         42-48k   500-550
Spain     31-34k   2.1-2.5k
of course I strongly hope to be wrong (i.e. that real figures will be much lower)

[paulca]

Checking the stats this morning and the logarithmic graph is starting to look like an exponential looks on a normal graph.

[nctnico]

What's the deal with Germany?
Plenty of cases, few deaths and hardly anyone in intensive care?

I think Germany does a lot more testing of people with mild symptoms.

[iMo]

JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).

[nctnico]

JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).

I don't want to sound morbide but they should make a graph of the number of deaths.

[paulca]

JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).

I don't want to sound morbide but they should make a graph of the number of deaths.

It will pretty much looks the same as cases, just transposed 2 orders of magnitude.

[nctnico]

JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).

I don't want to sound morbide but they should make a graph of the number of deaths.

It will pretty much looks the same as cases, just transposed 2 orders of magnitude.

No, it won't because every country has a different level of testing which also changes over time. In the NL for example you see 23 cases per death but in Germany you see the number of cases per death sliding down from >300 cases per death to 234 cases per death currently. And the areas in the NL and Germany with lots of infections are next to eachother (the virus got spread due to spring carnaval). IOW: the number of cases tells you absolutely nothing about how the virus is spreading.

[VK3DRB]

Our government website MyGov failed today. The minister responsible for said it was a hacker's DOS attack which was complete and utter . The real cause was excessive demand that the site crashed. He got caught out and had to retract the lie. If the wankers cannot be honest, no-one will trust them which will just make matters worse. Centrelink today (the welfare payments government organisation) became a complete fiasco. The government even allowed a cruise ship load of people to disembark in Sydney without being tested and now they discover that some of the passengers had corona virus. An effing debacle if there ever was one.

Good planning, good management, good engineering, good decisions and good leadership is what we all need. The Australian federal government has failed on all counts. After this pandemic is over, they will be judged accordingly.

Those in the "Gig Economy" who have lost their jobs are being told to wait 5 weeks to get their first dole money. The politicians have legislated to allow the poor to dig into their retirement funds to get them through. These politicians on bloated salaries won't be digging into their overly generous taxpayer funded retirement funds to help them through. And I bet they won't be lowering the rents to those who rent their investment properties.

As for this little man armchair engineer, I will be donating time and money to help out those in more need than me. I suggest we all do a bit more beyond our normal giving or just what we might just do for ourselves.

[iMo]

JHU page has changed the graphs - you'll get Confirmed an Daily_Increase in a Country (click on the Country in left pane).

I don't want to sound morbide but they should make a graph of the number of deaths.

It will pretty much looks the same as cases, just transposed 2 orders of magnitude.

Deaths per country - that could be tricky to report, see below countries with >1000 confirmed and <0.5% (an quick example only)..

[thinkfat]

I wonder if all the countries demonststrating a linear increase of cases are basically showing their testing capacity only (Iran, for example). South Korea might be an exception.

[Muttley Snickers]

To date we have had seven pass away in Australia which have been attributed to coronavirus, these were 3 males and 4 females. With all due respect the order and age are as follows: Male 78, Female 95, Male 82, Female 77, Female 90, Male 87, Female 81.   

[drussell]

Deaths per country - that could be tricky to report, see below countries with >1000 confirmed and <0.5% (an quick example only)..

Sure, those numbers show:
Germany, Austria, Israel, Czechia, Norway deaths at [ 111, 16, 1, 1, 8 ]

but they also only show:
Germany, Austria, Israel, Czechia, Norway recovered at [ 422, 9, 37, 6, 6 ]

It takes at least two to three weeks on average for a case to reach an outcome. You cannot just look at the total cases and assume that none of those people are going to die.  Those places where you say the number of deaths are low are just still early enough on the curve that they haven't started getting many known outcomes yet, good or bad. 

You can't make an accurate calculation of the CFR that early in an outbreak.  You need outcomes.

[iMo]

Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
 

Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report).

Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820

[aseok]

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Zero999]

Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
 

Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report).

Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820

The problem with this virus is the speed at which it spreads, so heath care systems can't cope.

[thinkfat]

Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
 

Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report).

Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820

I wouldn't derive anything from German numbers yet. Too few cases with outcome and the most vulnerable tend to die first and quickly, but there have to be many more cases in critical condition (which are not being reported as such, as far as I can say).

[iMo]

Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship case (19% infected while people lived in rather suboptimal epidemiological conditions) let us be a little bit optimistic and estimate 8-15% of population infected in EU states (depends on the actual countermeasures applied by a particular country as well as the commitment of their citizens).
 

Based on the current Germany data (and Diamond Princess 19% infected), with the infected 8% in Germany you get similar number fatalities as with the Germany's flu in 2017/2018 (25000 Report).

Fatalities DE: 82.8mil*8%*0.42%= 27820

The problem with this virus is the speed at which it spreads, so heath care systems can't cope.

Sure, the assumption with that naive model is Germany masters the "flattening the curve".

[BravoV]

 

-> Nigeria records chloroquine poisoning after Trump endorses it for coronavirus treatment

[Cerebus]

I agree with you, but they were not as wide spread and causing as many problems and deaths as they do now... and worldwide

Agreed, but the situation now was a preventable situation if some in the political policy realm had listened to the warning voices, and thinking about that prompted me to think about the parallels with the current situation.

[SiliconWizard]

https://www.caducee.net/actualite-medicale/14792/un-collectif-de-professionnels-de-sante-saisit-la-cour-de-justice-de-la-republique-contre-agnes-buzyn-et-edouard-philippe.html

[not1xor1]

We know which is the destine of the elder people, die like dogs.

https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.elconfidencial.com%2Fespana%2F2020-03-23%2Fmilitares-descubren-cadaveres-junto-a-residentes-de-centros-de-ancianos_2513372%2F

I read that in Germany youngsters organize so-called corona-party and cough on elders... is that true or yet another exaggeration?