Covid 19 virus

[Mr. Scram]

just one fact: you only like wishful thinking and ignorance (outdated figures, not understanding how China stopped the contagion)

It'd be helpful if you explained how you think things really are with properly quoted sources, instead of being stuck in repeat how everyone has got it wrong. Opinions are irrelevant. Facts are not.

[SiliconWizard]

just one fact: you only like wishful thinking and ignorance (outdated figures, not understanding how China stopped the contagion)

It'd be helpful if you explained how you think things really are with properly quoted sources, instead of being stuck in repeat how everyone has got it wrong. Opinions are irrelevant. Facts are not.

Yeah. I'm also not sure what not1xor1 is really on about here. It's kind of unclear. Looks like they are trying to warn us that the crisis is all much worse than we think it is, but what purpose exactly would that serve? Are we not already bombarded with Covid 19-related stuff 24/7?

[not1xor1]

What the fuck? At the morning 8am we were 833 deaths. Now , when i am writing the message are almost 4pm in Spain, we are 1102 deaths. Almost 300 deaths more than this morning.

part of the problem, I read, is that some countries do not count death as we do...
e.g. if people have cancer besides COVID-19 they might count is as a cancer death

in any case:

Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator1 of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).

reference: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

[not1xor1]

So yeah, definitely it will be tough. But what doesn't kill us makes us stronger. 

Tell that to someone who "recovers" from this coronavirus with permanent lung damage.

Tell that to the tens of thousands of people who have already lost their jobs here in the past week, or the hundreds of thousands that will be out of work soon as this drags on for months and leaves closures and bankrupcies in its wake...

This is likely to really, really suck... 
(Mostly from the follow-on consequences more than the actual virus,...)

I've read various times that those people who recovered, even young ones, lost smell and taste senses and none knows how and if they'll ever get them back

[Mr. Scram]

I've read various times that those people who recovered, even young ones, lost smell and taste senses and none knows how and if they'll ever get them back

This doesn't sound conveniently scary yet unspecific at all. 

[mzzj]

Do you realize that Juha Sarkio (director-general of the public governance department of the Finnish ministry of finance) would not have been able to get tested, if he was just an ordinary citizen?  His exposure was under the THL requirements for getting tested; the only reason he got tested was his connections.

Even if I normally would wish 90% of politic figures happy journey to hell I think its equally important to keep the existing government operational and healthy as the healthcare workers in a situation like this.
If testing capacity currently is 1500 tests per day and they run at nearly 80% capacity I don't see any difference if they make 200 extra tests per day. Those 200 extra tests would reveal probably less than 20 cases.


I have had corona-like symptoms(itchy throat, slight fever, chest pain and slight difficult in breathing) since last sunday and 2 of my close acquaintances have very similar symptoms but testing wouldn't make me feel any better. 
I guess we will see in a week or two if the slowdown process is enough efficient or if its even too efficient.
If the purpose is to suffer through this disease there is no point to try to slow it down too much. Delaying tactics until vaccination don't seem probable.

 

[not1xor1]

just one fact: you only like wishful thinking and ignorance (outdated figures, not understanding how China stopped the contagion)

It'd be helpful if you explained how you think things really are with properly quoted sources, instead of being stuck in repeat how everyone has got it wrong. Opinions are irrelevant. Facts are not.

we are just telling there is a hole in our Titanic ship but you pretend to ignore that and go on drinking and dancing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States (US: 15,367 cases 177 deaths)

something may be wrong here or in the previous one (probably here they forgot to update the cases number as it is the same I read yesterday):
https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/ (US: 14,631 cases 210 deaths)

OK I managed to find the link to the original (and correct) map now:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 (US: 16,018 cases 210 deaths)

[Mr. Scram]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States (US: 15,367 cases 177 deaths)

something may be wrong here on in the previous one (probably here they forgot to update the cases number as it is the same I read yesterday):
https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/ (US: 14,631 cases 210 deaths)

This is the equivalent of just pointing someone to Google. It's becoming clear you have no interest in the subject or actually discussing it. You've been asked to contribute anything tangible or substantial and consistently refuse to do so, which at this point can only be interpreted as being intentionally facetious. How about you just go away and let the adults have a productive discussion?

[not1xor1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States (US: 15,367 cases 177 deaths)

something may be wrong here on in the previous one (probably here they forgot to update the cases number as it is the same I read yesterday):
https://www.corriere.it/speciale/esteri/2020/mappa-coronavirus/ (US: 14,631 cases 210 deaths)

This is the equivalent of just pointing someone to Google. It's becoming clear you have no interest in the subject or actually discussing it. You've been asked to contribute anything tangible or substantial and consistently refuse to do so, which at this point can only be interpreted as being intentionally facetious. How about you just go away and let the adults have a productive discussion?

LOL
this looks like a case study of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection 

[Mr. Scram]

we are just telling there is a hole in our Titanic ship but you pretend to ignore that and go on drinking and dancing

No, we're not. That's just your excuse to stir panic and act up. People are putting on life vests and getting into boats while you're running and shouting and tripping people up.

That's not what he said. People need to stop interpreting the refusal to get caught up in the panic and fear as treating things lightly. Fear is useless. Preparation is not. The best thing to do is stay calm, take sensible precautions and monitor the situation. Endlessly repeating it's going to be horrible is useless and counter productive. Many people are going to die. We know this. Get ready.

[Siwastaja]

I have had corona-like symptoms(itchy throat, slight fever, chest pain and slight difficult in breathing) since last sunday and 2 of my close acquaintances have very similar symptoms but testing wouldn't make me feel any better. 

The purpose is not to make you feel any better, the purpose is to quarantine you if it's the corona, so that you won't possibly infect 1000 people more.

Case study: South Korea. Look it up. They have practically won already, and they did it with extensive testing, including drive-in free test stations.

there is no point to try to slow it down too much

Slowing down have worked great in China and South Korea, and the idea is that you don't need to choose who dies and who lives, and don't need the military to dump bodies in masses in makeshift creamatories, which is now the reality in Italy. Again, look it up.

It's possible there's second wave in China and South Korea, in which case, the inconvinience comes back again. It's still easier.

You realize that if we decide not to have the inconvinience, this means approximately 200 000 dead bodies in Finland within a few weeks, and assuming you are a healthy male, you will likely be one of those called in for military service to dispose the bodies. THIS is what no one wants, THIS is why the actions are taking place. With the actions currently in place, it won't be that bad, but it will be still bad. With heavier actions, like China or South Korea, it would be much better.

So believe or not, yes, it really is mandatory to slow it down, in fact it seems no country has decided not to take any action whatsoever. Luckily you don't decide. Luckily Sale decided.

I hope you and your friends are self-quarantining already. Testing would help set you free if it's negative.

[Mr. Scram]

LOL
this looks like a case study of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection 

It does. I'm glad you're finally coming to terms with your limitations.

[iMo]

Deciding not to test isn't necessarily, fundamentally a bad idea; it's, however, the polar opposite of the WHO and expert advice, so to take such a fundamentally different approach than the others, is a human experiment.

Indeed. I find this rather blunt to defend the opposite view now that the WHO has made the point clearly.
As I already said multiple times, the real point IMO in  many countries is that we just don't have the capacity to do more testing. So we just can't comply, and find reasons not to (so the populations don't panic and get back at their governments, which admittedly would just make things worse at the very moment.) Just MHO.

So as long as people do continue to socialize, maybe just limiting it "by a little bit" as instructed by the officials and the media here (there are many conflicting instructions; people pick which suits them best, which is the "reducing socializing a little bit is enough" advice), the best way to work around this is to test, test, and again, test. When someone tests positive, then they most likely take the quarantine seriously, and it's easier to enforce for those very few who still won't.

Agreed. Besides relentlessly working on a future vaccine, we should definitely work very hard on devising quick and cheap tests.

We had here a short discussion on how to proceed with testing (~2w back) and they decided to test "suspects" (the people returning from areas of high risk of exposure in our case, or people with covid-like symptoms) only, and when positive to track all their contacts down. Then they test all the persons in the contact's tree. PCR testing in ref centers.

There are people who want to be tested even they are not the suspects, and they can purchase a private testing (kits). Yesterday our government requested private providers of the testing to stop that exercise as we may need the kits when the situation worsens (as the testing kits are not readily available).

Our experts were against a "flat testing" as you may get a lot of false negative results, they said.
The "suspects" were exposed to the infection for much longer time, or contracted the virus a few days back, or, they show some symptoms already, thus the probability of getting the right result with the first test is high.

Btw, I watched Mr. Trump's briefing today with interest and the "testing" vs. "immediate actions" had been a pretty topic.
Dr. Fauci had to explain the "testing" vs. "immediate actions" may not be related. People usually tend to expect they ALL have to be tested first, and based on that all the negative persons may follow their businesses as usual. The positive people will be quarantined and that's it. That could be a challenging exercise, indeed.

Mr Trump has also invoked Defense Production Act to make important purchases for coping with virus. He is looking for a local manufacturer of ventilators and masks.. Where are they?

[not1xor1]

19:37 - WHO: collapsed hospitals, it is not bad influence
«There are health systems collapsing. This is not normal, ”said Michael Ryan, WHO's executive director of the emergency health program in the usual daily briefing. “Look at intensive care in some parts of the world, completely overwhelmed. Look to the exhausted doctors and nurses. This is not normal. This is not a simple particularly negative flu season. "

source:
https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fcronache%2F20_marzo_20%2Fcoronavirus-ultime-notizie-dall-italia-mondo-39828fbc-6a74-11ea-b40a-2e7c2eee59c6.shtml

according to Mr. Scram (and mr Trump) this is just like flu

thousands of experts saying otherwise, tenths of studies published recently... it doesn't matter... of course those are just opinions
you can't compare those to Mr Scram facts 

[Sal Ammoniac]

If it turns out we over reacted, things will bounce back again.

Oh sure, just like things bounced back after WWII. When did rationing end in the UK? Sometime in the 1950s?

[Nominal Animal]

I think its equally important to keep the existing government operational and healthy as the healthcare workers in a situation like this.

I would put government officials secondary to healthcare workers and those who need to interact with people, like tellers and delivery people.

If testing capacity currently is 1500 tests per day

That, too, is completely arbitrary number.  There are several companies in Finland, including Aidian, that manufacture the tests in the millions, and export them.  While you do need trained technicians to run the tests, we could have crash-trained dozens of them in the past two months. 

My point is, the "we can't do any more tests" claim is bullshit, just like the claim "we cannot close our borders" was.  They lie, because they are unable to rationally examine the reasons for the decisions they are making.

I have had corona-like symptoms(itchy throat, slight fever, chest pain and slight difficult in breathing) since last sunday and 2 of my close acquaintances have very similar symptoms but testing wouldn't make me feel any better.

Me too, for over a week now.  I am not interested in getting myself tested either.

Look.  There is a concerted effort to keep the numbers artificially low, because those in charge are scared.  Because they are scared, they think that they are doing a good job by keeping the numbers hidden, so that people won't panic.  Unfortunately, as we are seeing in Helsinki region -- much of the rest of the Finland is doing much better, over half of the cases are within Helsinki-Uusimaa region --, the numbers shown are so small people do not think there is any reason for them to behave any different, and in doing so, they are spreading the virus at a rapid rate.

We won't know how bad the situation is, unless it is revealed by the number of dead (and it is possible to suppress those numbers too), or if we get incredibly lucky and the strain affecting Helsinki-Uusimaa regions happen to be less lethal than others.

To put it bluntly, I have already estimated about 2,000 dead in Helsinki-Uusimaa (HUS) before May.  This is based on just 15% of the region getting infected, and on just 1% fatality rate.  The only thing that makes me think this is a very unreliable estimate is the fact that I do not know the statistics on the typical duration (from infection till death), and have assumed it is on the order of 30 days.

If Finns were told point blank that we expect a couple of thousand to die before the summer, backed by wider testing numbers and statistics from other countries, don't you think more people would take the social isolation more seriously?  I do.

Instead, I predict that the tampering with the official figures is ignored, and the sudden start of deaths will be claimed to be "unforeseeable".

If the purpose is to suffer through this disease there is no point to try to slow it down too much. Delaying tactics until vaccination don't seem probable.

Except for the number of dead that would have remained alive with intensive care, of course.

There are only 228 intensive care beds, and a theoretical conversion capacity to around 400.  When we have that number of cases in intensive care, people start to die because of lack of intensive care.  Not just from Covid-19, but from other causes as well, because in triage -- choosing who gets the care -- misjudgements will be made.

I do believe that the Finnish path has two fatal errors.  First is the refusal to act early and strongly (and lack of enforcement of isolation).  We can't do anything about that anymore.  Second is the "finessing" of the official numbers to make this seem less dangerous than it is.  This is typical of Finns, and occurred even during the Tsernobyl incident; Finns were kept unaware of it as long as possible, because some idiots thought it would be better as people might panic otherwise.  This latter is what I think is something we could change.  Increasing the testing capacity so we had proof, so we could stop idiots from believing they can just go on as usual -- this being Somebody Elses Problem --, is the only way I see the change could happen.

TL;DR: It is the statistics from the tests that are important.  Right now, they are kept artificially low in Finland, leading to ignorance, and actually hastening the spread of the virus.  While it may help the epidemic to pass faster, a lot more people will die to lack of hospital resources that way, and not just from Covid-19, but from anything requiring intensive care resources.

[mzzj]

I have had corona-like symptoms(itchy throat, slight fever, chest pain and slight difficult in breathing) since last sunday and 2 of my close acquaintances have very similar symptoms but testing wouldn't make me feel any better. 

The purpose is not to make you feel any better, the purpose is to quarantine you if it's the corona, so that you won't possibly infect 1000 people more.

Case study: South Korea. Look it up. They have practically won already, and they did it with extensive testing, including drive-in free test stations.

there is no point to try to slow it down too much

Slowing down have worked great in China and South Korea, and the idea is that you don't need to choose who dies and who lives, and don't need the military to dump bodies in masses in makeshift creamatories, which is now the reality in Italy. Again, look it up.

It's possible there's second wave in China and South Korea, in which case, the inconvinience comes back again. It's still easier.

You realize that if we decide not to have the inconvinience, this means approximately 200 000 dead bodies in Finland within a few weeks, and assuming you are a healthy male, you will likely be one of those called in for military service to dispose the bodies. THIS is what no one wants, THIS is why the actions are taking place. With the actions currently in place, it won't be that bad, but it will be still bad. With heavier actions, like China or South Korea, it would be much better.

So believe or not, yes, it really is mandatory to slow it down, in fact it seems no country has decided not to take any action whatsoever. Luckily you don't decide. Luckily Sale decided.

I hope you and your friends are self-quarantining already. Testing would help set you free if it's negative.

Korean and Chinese strategy was to contain it. In here at the moment we have choice left if we delay it for half a month or half a year. 100k or 50k in deaths. Option for 5k deaths went year ago.
2003 SARS was the wake-up call in Korea to make them improve their testing capacity and procedures.
 In here they would have needed to start building procedures and testing systems year ago. No doubt this is going to be our wake-up call for high capacity PCR testing.

[SiliconWizard]

No doubt this is going to be our wake-up call for high capacity PCR testing.

I unfortunately have some doubts.

[mzzj]

There are several companies in Finland, including Aidian, that manufacture the tests in the millions, and export them.  While you do need trained technicians to run the tests, we could have crash-trained dozens of them in the past two months. 

Aidian quick-test is antibody test. Easy&Fast&Cheap but not great if  usable at all in early stages of infection. Takes something like 5 days from infection to get reasonably reliable results.
99% reliable testing is also maybe good on personal treatment level but not that great if you test 10000 infected and 100 of them pass the screen. 

They market it for  "rapid diagnosis of coronavirus pneumonia" ie when shit has hit the fan already. Pneumonia cases are probably tested even now.
What we miss is PCR testing capacity and its bit more complicated than antibody tests. Nothing impossible but not local healthcare center or "arvauskeskus" level stuff like quick tests.

[Mr. Scram]

19:37 - WHO: collapsed hospitals, it is not bad influence
«There are health systems collapsing. This is not normal, ”said Michael Ryan, WHO's executive director of the emergency health program in the usual daily briefing. “Look at intensive care in some parts of the world, completely overwhelmed. Look to the exhausted doctors and nurses. This is not normal. This is not a simple particularly negative flu season. "

source:
https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.corriere.it%2Fcronache%2F20_marzo_20%2Fcoronavirus-ultime-notizie-dall-italia-mondo-39828fbc-6a74-11ea-b40a-2e7c2eee59c6.shtml

according to Mr. Scram (and mr Trump) this is just like flu

thousands of experts saying otherwise, tenths of studies published recently... it doesn't matter... of course those are just opinions
you can't compare those to Mr Scram facts 

Time for some nuance. Having the disease is much like the flu. It could be somewhat more lethal than regular flu percentage wise but the difference seems minor and some say selective testing may mean it's actually less lethal as most patients are never recorded. A significant amount don't get sick which seems part of the problem. Most healthy people can just sit the disease out without issue. A few will need serious intervention. This is what I said before.

What's different is that it's more infectious which leads to more infected at once. This inevitably leads to more simultaneous serious cases and deaths in less time. So far it's all still fairly equivalent to a regular flu except that the time scale is different. World wide regular flu cases are estimated to be up to 5 million and deaths are estimated to be up to and over over half a million each year but these are spread throughout at least part of the year.

Why we need to take action is the risk of overwhelming our health care due to the larger simultaneous numbers of serious cases. If that happens the position of very treatable patients becomes much more precarious. This is why we need to slow the spread of infection as this allows health care system to keep up. Stopping the spread unfortunately seems unrealistic at this point in time but with sensible precautions and preparation we can hopefully get through it with the least amount of damage. It's still going to be a stressful time for especially doctors and nurses as a year's worth of care is going to be compressed into one or two months. The flu takes a significant cut every year just as Covid 19 will take its but with considerable effort we should be able to minimise the numbers.

Flu numbers: https://emedicine.medscape.com/article/219557-overview#a6
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

[Nominal Animal]

Aidian quick-test is antibody test.

Yup, it was just an example.  A quick lookup finds companies like Abacus Diagnostica that do PCR testing equipment (fully automated PCR and RT-PCR).  I do not personally know these companies, only that there are quite a few internationally known ones here.

I'm certain they (not these two companies in particular, I mean all these medical diagnostics companies in Finland) could boost the Finnish testing capability rapidly, if anybody asked them.  (I suspect they have even offered, but have gotten cold shoulder from THL.  After all, THL opposes even local production of medical oxygen, because reasons...)
The problem in my opinion is, that the testing capacity is kept low intentionally, to keep statistics "unscary" = footgun.

[Zero999]

I originally thought that it was no worse than flu, but I was wrong. It will obviously affect smokers much worse. Just watch this video of a young woman fighting for her life. No doubt if she didn't smoke, she'd be at home curled up in bed watching films.

[SiliconWizard]

On the positive side, even if the results are still few and preliminary, note that Chloroquine is currently giving hope.

[donotdespisethesnake]

Yeah, I thought we nailed this "it's just like the flu" bullshit, but denial is powerful. It's like trying to argue with Flat Earthers. Fortunately, world leaders are taking it seriously, even if it takes a week or two to get through the initial shock. The fact there is no community immunity to Covid-19 makes it completely and utterly different to seasonal flu. It's a really moronic comparison.

People waiting for "all the facts" before taking it seriously will find health systems totally overwhelmed well before they see people near them dying. This is NOT about individual risk but risk to society as a whole. What people don't realise is that health systems assume that 99.99% of the population are healthy enough not to need critical care. Better not need any critical care in the near future, there will be a very long queue.

And now cue more denial in 3..2..1.. 

[Mr. Scram]

I originally thought that it was no worse than flu, but I was wrong. It will obviously affect smokers much worse. Just watch this video of a young woman fighting for her life. No doubt if she didn't smoke, she'd be at home curled up in bed watching films.

COVID-19 affecting people with vulnerable lungs more than a regular flu doesn't seem disputed. Smoking does a number on pretty much everything in your body. It'd be interesting to see whether the statistics show that smoking in itself means being at increased risk from COVID-19.