Covid 19 virus

[Cerebus]

I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.

I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.

So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this.

Remember that COVID-19 is actually SARS-CoV-2.  It is closely related to SARS and possibly a mutation of it.

The same species, a different strain. SARS is caused by the virus SARS-Cov, the disease (strictly syndrome) Covid-19 by the virus SARS-Cov-2.

[TerminalJack505]

Here's a sobering statistic...

Modeling data from China shows that 4 out of 5 people diagnosed with coronavirus contracted it from someone they didn't know

Of the many things that have happened in the past week since CNN's last town hall, Dr. Sanjay Gupta said one of the most surprising to him was new data from China that showed 80% of coronavirus patients contracted the virus from someone they didn't know.

"There is a message in there, I think for all of us," Gupta said. "We are, as I said, all dependent on each other more than ever, and more than I can certainly remember in my lifetime, and it's why we all have to behave like we have the virus ... you will be more careful, you will be more mindful, you will slow down."

This, along with earlier reports that a person doesn't show symptoms for up to 5 days, shows, in my opinion, that people should be wearing face masks when they are out in public--to protect others!

Of course, the "experts" are saying face masks are useless but what they are likely really saying (if they are truly an expert in the matter) is that they don't want health care professionals to run out of supplies.  I fully expect for them to change their tune once the supply chain isn't so strained.

[nctnico]

It has already been told many times that hands are a much more likely way to get infected. Wearing a mask just puts a big, wet infected rag on top of your face.

[james_s]

If you are coughing or sneezing then wearing a face mask will help protect others, but if you are coughing or sneezing you really shouldn't be out in public at all. People buying/wearing masks necessarily is depriving people in situations where they really help from getting them.

[rgarito]

Electronics manufacturing should return to the West, IMO. Manufacturing is now highly automated, so there is little excuse not to relocate to the West other than much of the skills and infrastructure we once had is now lost.

One word:  Chemicals.

So many environmental restrictions in the USA for a lot of the chemicals we use to build this stuff.  (and mostly for good reason).  The USA tends to use foreign countries to do our "dirty work."

[rgarito]

This, along with earlier reports that a person doesn't show symptoms for up to 5 days, shows, in my opinion, that people should be wearing face masks when they are out in public--to protect others!

Of course, the "experts" are saying face masks are useless but what they are likely really saying (if they are truly an expert in the matter) is that they don't want health care professionals to run out of supplies.  I fully expect for them to change their tune once the supply chain isn't so strained.

Exactly.  The REAL problem with face masks in the USA is that there is a shortage of them.  At this point you can find a gold bar on the street easier than you can get a face mask at a local drug store.  The CDC apparently just told doctors to even use bandanna's if necessary.   

New York City's mayor is now saying the city will run out of "medical supplies" within 2-3 weeks at the current rates.

[Muttley Snickers]

I don't know if this video has been posted already but it gives a good indication of how the spread of a virus can be minimised and in turn the death toll.

[DrG]

This, along with earlier reports that a person doesn't show symptoms for up to 5 days, shows, in my opinion, that people should be wearing face masks when they are out in public--to protect others!

Of course, the "experts" are saying face masks are useless but what they are likely really saying (if they are truly an expert in the matter) is that they don't want health care professionals to run out of supplies.  I fully expect for them to change their tune once the supply chain isn't so strained.

Exactly.  The REAL problem with face masks in the USA is that there is a shortage of them.  At this point you can find a gold bar on the street easier than you can get a face mask at a local drug store.  The CDC apparently just told doctors to even use bandanna's if necessary.   

New York City's mayor is now saying the city will run out of "medical supplies" within 2-3 weeks at the current rates.

So, let's see if we can get some agreement.

If you are sneezing and coughing, you should wear a face mask, but you shouldn't be out in public if you're sneezing and coughing. So, except for the case where you are on the way to a medical treatment facility or sitting in a waiting room, or otherwise being around other people where you have no real choice in the matter. - ok

If you are carrying and asymptomatic, you could be spreading, so wear a face mask. Since there is no way of knowing whether you are incubating, Everybody who feels fine should wear a mask. - OK

But if everyone else is NOT wearing a face mask (and of course that is the case), then you end up with a viral rag on your face as soon as an incubator lets loose on you. Consequently, you end up breathing in the virus because the globules are sitting on your crappy face mask. So, a healthy persons becomes a sick person because they wore a face mask.

On top of all this, we don't have enough face masks to go around, so we are depriving people who need them more than us. Because we don't have enough testing, we have no way of knowing if someone is an incubator. In fact, it is still unclear how easy it is to get tested even if you are symptomatic.

How about we talk more about wearing a face shield.

Now, if an incubator sneezes in her direction, her nose, eyes and mouth are protected. Is that plastic going to actually work? Yeah, pretty well https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24467190 at least for 8.5 μm aerosols but less so for 3.4 μm and as the large particles settle and the smaller particles are dispersing, their effectiveness goes down because the little devils are working their way around. Although, just keeping your distance (72") helps a lot and it goes back up.

Short of a real respirator, I would choose a face shield over a face mask. At least that is my thinking right now.

edit: plus you can put little cool stickers on it like little bumper stickers.
      :removed link to picture of face shield

[BravoV]

Noticed nice detail ... a small gesture of valuable gratitude .. a special printed boarding pass ... 

[Red Squirrel]

Welp.  A case confirmed in my city now. 

https://www.timminspress.com/news/local-news/first-case-of-covid-19-in-timmins-confirmed-phu

From my understanding this virus likes the cold more than the heat, so it could possibly spread much faster here.  Not good.

I've been pretty much avoiding going out, except for work.  They are suppose to set us up to work from home but it's taking forever.   

[not1xor1]

-- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."

Yep, that is something what we discussed earlier, I would add more UV from sunshine in spring/summer will a) damage the virus on surfaces and in air, b) people exposed to sunshine create vitamin D (it supports immune system).
PS: I've been using "damage" instead of "kill" as the virus is not an living organism..
PPS: what the people down under think about it? Covid19 in summer?

SARS infected people were easier to spot because the disease developed quicker so the disease didn't spread around the world

COVID-19 infected people mostly go unnoticed so it already spread all around the world and even if it is likely to be affected by summer weather (but we do not know yet for sure) don't forget that the earth is made of 2 hemispheres where the seasons are reversed so it is not going to magically disappear

I just see too many people misunderstanding realistic worry for panic
we need to act now
the stricter and more self-controlled and rational would be our behavior the shorter would be the crisis

besides that you can't define what is alive or not, the border between self-replicating chemical reactions and life is just too blurred as all life forms come anyway from just self-replicating chemical reactions

there are viruses that are larger and more complex than many bacteria and bacteria that are as simple as viruses or just have become an eukaryotic cell organelle (mitochondria)...

classifications and categorizations are just a shortcuts, reality is much more complex and messy

[iMo]

Newest Italy statistics with interesting data:

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf

The average age of deceased and positive COVID-19 patients is 79.5 years (median 80.5, range 31-103, InterQuartile Range - IQR 74.3-85.9). There are 601 women (30.0%).
Figure 1 shows that the median age of COVID-19 positive deceased patients is more than 15 years higher than that of patients who contracted the infection (median age: deceased patients 80.5 years - patients infected with 63 years).
Figure 2 shows the number of deaths by age group. Women who died after contracting COVID-19 infection are older than men (median ages: women 83.7 - men 79.5).

Table 1 presents the most common pre-existing chronic pathologies (diagnosed before contracting the infection) in deceased patients. This figure was obtained in 355/2003 deaths (17.7% of the overall sample).
The average number of pathologies observed in this population is 2.7 (median 2, Standard Deviation 1.6).
Overall,
3 patients (0.8% of the sample) had 0 pathologies,
89 (25.1%) had 1 pathology,
91 had 2 pathologies (25.6%) and
172 (48.5%) had 3 or more pathologies.

To date (17 March), 17 COVID-19 positive patients have died under the age of 50. In particular, 5 of these were less than 40 and they were all male people aged between 31 and 39 with serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity).

[paulca]

The UK curve, an almost perfect exponential curve of inaction!

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

They can't even be botherd to update that until 6pm but it always says 9am, that's public health england, hopeless morons.

It's pointless anyway.  The UK stats where one of the first bits of truth to go.  Look at the number of recovered versus deaths.  They are only testing hospitalised patients and rich people.

I stopped watching them, the data is so badly skewed it's more wrong than right.

That and as normal, "Public Health England" are looking after their own, but claiming to be "UK Wide".  You will note the Northern Ireland stats are poor and mostly an estimate with no break down.

[Muttley Snickers]

Although many people around the world have been infected, a lot of people who go to the supermarket still do not wear masks and do not take any protective measures.As a Chinese who has just experienced a long period of isolation, I have to say that protection is a must.The government asked us to be quarantined for a while before we started work.Now, Chinese factories are finally operating again.But many businesses around the world are struggling to survive because of the virus. Click here to learn
Edited: deleted URL link

The above post has been reported for moderation.
Please refrain from posting promotional links and material disguised as important information. Your questionable activity has been reported for moderation.

[paulca]

The above post has been reported for moderation.
Please refrain from posting promotional links and material disguised as important information. Your questionable activity has been reported for moderation.

It's bizarre.  Capitalism and communism seemed to have swapped places.

[Muttley Snickers]

These people have posted spam here before in the same manner, behind the important information façade is a link to their website.   

[engrguy42]

FYI, today the CDC is reporting a total of 150 people have died so far from COVID-19 in the US (population 330 million).

WHO is reporting 100 people have died so far in US.

Since yesterday the total deaths were around 50, it seems certain (IMO) that the news media will focus on the fact that the death rate has nearly doubled or tripled, rather than on the fact that it's only 100-150 deaths total.

And since it seems the entire country is pretty much shut down right now, maybe there's a light at the end of the tunnel, and maybe this will end up being another short-lived SARS. 

BTW, anyone remember this?

"So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and of vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory."

[Zero999]

Electronics manufacturing should return to the West, IMO. Manufacturing is now highly automated, so there is little excuse not to relocate to the West other than much of the skills and infrastructure we once had is now lost.

One word:  Chemicals.

So many environmental restrictions in the USA for a lot of the chemicals we use to build this stuff.  (and mostly for good reason).  The USA tends to use foreign countries to do our "dirty work."

Yes, that's true. You don't shit on your own doorstep.

This, along with earlier reports that a person doesn't show symptoms for up to 5 days, shows, in my opinion, that people should be wearing face masks when they are out in public--to protect others!

Of course, the "experts" are saying face masks are useless but what they are likely really saying (if they are truly an expert in the matter) is that they don't want health care professionals to run out of supplies.  I fully expect for them to change their tune once the supply chain isn't so strained.

Exactly.  The REAL problem with face masks in the USA is that there is a shortage of them.  At this point you can find a gold bar on the street easier than you can get a face mask at a local drug store.  The CDC apparently just told doctors to even use bandanna's if necessary.   

New York City's mayor is now saying the city will run out of "medical supplies" within 2-3 weeks at the current rates.

I think a big benifit of face masks is they stop people from touching their faces unconsciously, thus will help cut the spread, so for most people a cheap, crappy mask will do.

FYI, today the CDC is reporting a total of 150 people have died so far from COVID-19 in the US (population 330 million).

WHO is reporting 100 people have died so far in US.

Since yesterday the total deaths were around 50, it seems certain (IMO) that the news media will focus on the fact that the death rate has nearly doubled or tripled, rather than on the fact that it's only 100-150 deaths total.

That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly.

[engrguy42]

Zero999: "That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly."

That's the point. You can imagine anything you want. You're assuming we're dealing with exponentials in every case, and that today's results predict the future. Today China reported its second day with no new cases. That's not exponential. The country where it started is reporting no new cases. Now you're free to dismiss China's numbers as propaganda, and you may be right. But then why would they report so many cases prior to this, or even mention it at all?

The WHO reports that the Western Pacific region has been declining in cases since early February.

And if you consider that most countries have locked everything down recently, at some point it seems reasonable to expect that to have a positive impact.

Or, as some seem to want to believe, the world is ending tomorrow. Take your pick.

[thinkfat]

Zero999: "That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly."

That's the point. You can imagine anything you want. You're assuming we're dealing with exponentials in every case, and that today's results predict the future. Today China reported its second day with no new cases. That's not exponential. The country where it started is reporting no new cases. Now you're free to dismiss China's numbers as propaganda, and you may be right. But then why would they report so many cases prior to this, or even mention it at all?

The WHO reports that the Western Pacific region has been declining in cases since early February.

And if you consider that most countries have locked everything down recently, at some point it seems reasonable to expect that to have a positive impact.

Or, as some seem to want to believe, the world is ending tomorrow. Take your pick.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

See the graph for total fatalities. Nice exponential growth. Do you expect this curve to just flatten out over night?

[iMo]

It has to flatten out soon because of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic games (July 24th)..

[engrguy42]

Zero999: "That's a huge increase. Imagine if the death rate increased at that rate for the next 10 days. We're dealing with exponentials and numbers get big, very quickly."

That's the point. You can imagine anything you want. You're assuming we're dealing with exponentials in every case, and that today's results predict the future. Today China reported its second day with no new cases. That's not exponential. The country where it started is reporting no new cases. Now you're free to dismiss China's numbers as propaganda, and you may be right. But then why would they report so many cases prior to this, or even mention it at all?

The WHO reports that the Western Pacific region has been declining in cases since early February.

And if you consider that most countries have locked everything down recently, at some point it seems reasonable to expect that to have a positive impact.

Or, as some seem to want to believe, the world is ending tomorrow. Take your pick.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

See the graph for total fatalities. Nice exponential growth. Do you expect this curve to just flatten out over night?

Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!". 

But IMO what's more important is whether there is a slowing trend, which means the rate of new deaths is trending lower. That's what happened with SARS. The isolation measures worked, and it died out. But assuming exponential for the future IMPLIES that everyone will get it very soon and we'll all die.

I don't think that's rational. It might end up that we all die, but I think there's a reasonable case to be made, based on the results of SARS and MERS, etc., that these protective measures might end up working.

Or, we'll all die tomorrow.   

[paulca]

Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!". 

With the average estimate incubation period being 5 days and the average time between symptoms to death being 15 days.  The deaths data you see today has approximately a 20 day lag time compared with infections.  So it's not unreasonable to transpolate it back/forward 20 days.

And... if it stays exponential and does not reach an inflection point in under 2 weeks what will the daily death rate be then?

[engrguy42]

Just keep in mind that it's pretty much guaranteed that the total number of deaths in the US will increase in the near term (I'm guessing on the order of weeks). So any graph of total deaths will show a constantly increasing curve. And you can always say "OMG, it's getting worse !!!". 

With the average estimate incubation period being 5 days and the average time between symptoms to death being 15 days.  The deaths data you see today has approximately a 20 day lag time compared with infections.  So it's not unreasonable to transpolate it back/forward 20 days.

And... if it stays exponential and does not reach an inflection point in under 2 weeks what will the daily death rate be then?

Again, you can assume and hypotheticalize (I just made that word up) anything you want. Maybe it's not exponential to the second power, maybe it's exponential to the 10th power and everyone will get it by 8pm tonight.

At this point it comes down to what you want to believe. Some people seem to enjoy excitement in any form, even if it's fear. Which is why horror movies are so popular.

Me, not so much. I like facts, not fear.

[paulca]

Me, not so much. I like facts, not fear.

The two are not mutually exclusive.  Both are up to you.  Making predictions on data based on previous trends is how the real world works and no not all extrapolations will turn out to match, but they are often close enough to matter.

I also think that people SHOULD be a little afraid.  Not paniced or insane, but afraid enough to listen to people telling them how to protect themselves, their families and their community.

If it turns out we over reacted, things will bounce back again.

So a few airlines go under, but when it all ends people will need airlines and new ones will be born, jobs will be created.  Life will go on.  As long as we can support those in trouble during the worst of it we will all be fine.