Covid 19 virus

[nctnico]

I am looking at the numbers as an engineer. Just look at the WHO documents provided earlier in this thread. From those it is clear that a lockdown will only slow the Corona virus down. As soon as the lockdown is relaxed the spread will continue. A vaccine combined with herd immunity are the only effective weapons we can use.

Why didn't that lockdown relaxation phenomena you describe happen with SARS? And MERS?

These virusses are more deadly, easier to spot so these literally kill themselves when contained.

[not1xor1]

wikipedia is regularly updating data on the pandemic

there is an obvious time lag between Italy and US (or other countries), but you can compare the increase rate both of new cases and deaths

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Timeline
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States#Timeline

main article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic

[james_s]

Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.

As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.

And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.

CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.

Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.

You really are comparing apples to oranges. The flu season is about over but the Corona virus season has just begun! You can safely assume 70% of the people in the US gets infected at some point. Even at a 2% death rate this means over 4 million people will die in the US alone. More if lots of people get sick at the same time and saturate health care.

The only way to avoid this is to buy time through strict quarantine until there is a vaccine that works.

An effective vaccine could take a year or more, there is no way people will sit in their houses until then, if they even have a house to sit in. Again the economic impact is going to be catastrophic, the deaths will not be that big of a concern. Even if the numbers are huge, 0.1%-1% is still a small percentage and those will be heavily skewed toward people who are already old and in poor health. Many millions of those same people would die if they become homeless. I cannot understand how someone can be so worried about people getting sick directly and so apparently not worried at all about an economic catastrophe that could leave them homeless and starving.

[nctnico]

I already addressed this early but what you are describing is mostly a third world and US problem.

[james_s]

Well since I'm in the US I can't just dismiss that, but don't think for a moment that a catastrophic depression couldn't devastate other developed nations. We have a global economy with everything intertwined now.

[nctnico]

Well since I'm in the US I can't just dismiss that, but don't think for a moment that a catastrophic depression couldn't devastate other developed nations. We have a global economy with everything intertwined now.

The problem I see is that the large amount of poor people in the US will drag the country down. Both in virus infections and possibly even riots. For the US this can turn out to be the most perfect (worst) storm ever. The only light at the end of the tunnel for the US is that Poetin is such an a-hole otherwise Europe would be doing much more business with Russia and not need the US so much.

In Europe most countries have social security and are in better financial shape compared to the US. AFAIK even in this time of crisis the Netherlands gets a negative interest on loans. This makes it possible for the Dutch government to keep the entire country flush with money during this crisis so no jobs are lost.

[not1xor1]

here is the story of Italian patient one, 38 years old and fit, not affected by any other disease... just like flue...

https://translate.google.it/translate?hl=it&tab=wT&sl=it&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fmilano.corriere.it%2Fnotizie%2Fcronaca%2F20_marzo_19%2Fritorno-vita-mattia-paziente-uno-codogno-san-matteo-pavia-vedro-nascere-mia-bambina-b3d2265c-6a14-11ea-a8a1-df48c20e9d2e.shtml

BTW it is almost one month and he's still at the hospital although he's likely to be released soon

[engrguy42]

I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.

I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.

So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this. 

[iMo]

Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v1

CONCLUSION People with blood group A have a significantly higher risk for acquiring COVID-19 compared with non-A blood groups, whereas blood group O has a significantly lower risk for the infection compared with non-O blood groups.

[Nominal Animal]

BTW, the abbreviation for influenza is flu. A flue is an opening or a pipe or a duct in a chimney.
We who do mostly read and write English (as opposed to speaking and listening to it) find it hard to keep up when we must sound out the words in our mind.

[DrG]

Summit (200 petaFLOPS) used to identify existing compounds with SARS-CoV-2 relevant sites (small-molecules which bind to either the isolated Viral S-protein at its host receptor region or to the S protein-human ACE2 interface).

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/Repurposing_Therapeutics_for_the_Wuhan_Coronavirus_nCov-2019_Supercomputer-Based_Docking_to_the_Viral_S_Protein_and_Human_ACE2_Interface/11871402/4

Article PDF and and associated files are available.

[engrguy42]

FWIW, I found a news article from last month on what happened to SARS and what might happen to COVID-19:

"John Nicholls, clinical professor of pathology at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), said the SARS outbreak was brought to an end in July 2003 by good hygiene practices -- such as frequent hand-washing -- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."

"That will be the same for this one," he said. "My feeling is that this is just going to be like SARS and the world is going to get basically a very bad cold for about five months."

Of course, I'm sure in the medical community there are many varied opinions on this, and since I have zero medical experience I can't comment, but at least it seems reasonable to consider that maybe this will go the way of the other coronaviruses and just die out.

[nctnico]

I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.

I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.

Perhaps you should figure out the medical details first BEFORE reaching a conclusion. You can't just say one Corona virus is like the other. It is like saying all Glycol is the same (some types of Glycol are very toxic while others are used as a food additive).

The key to containing a virus is catching all people who are infected. The problem with the Covid 19 virus is, is that a large number of people get infected without serious symptoms so these fly below the radar. You can compare Covid19 to a stealth bomber. You don't notice it until it is too late and you have no idea where it hits next. If it would be easy to contain the Covid19 virus then it would have been done already. The SARS outbreak never reached the proportions of Covid19. The Covid19 outbreak started in November 2019. We are almost 3 months further and there is no end in sight.

[iMo]

-- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."

Yep, that is something what we discussed earlier, I would add more UV from sunshine in spring/summer will a) damage the virus on surfaces and in air, b) people exposed to sunshine create vitamin D (it supports immune system).
PS: I've been using "damage" instead of "kill" as the virus is not an living organism..
PPS: what the people down under think about it? Covid19 in summer?

[engrguy42]

Wow, I'm impressed at the apparent medical research background of the engineers here, but personally, just like I wouldn't expect a clinical pathologist (or whatever a virus expert is called) to answer complex electrical engineering subjects, I don't pretend to understand anything whatsoever about COVID-19 or any other virus. Just like, apparently, a lot of medical folks at this point, who seem to be scrambling to understand this. At best I look at the data I can find, and any information direct from what appear to be experts (which does NOT include online media), and give it my best guess.

So all I can suggest is that folks search the actual data rather than believing the media clickbait hype, and at the same time be intelligently over-precautious. 

[nctnico]

Wow, I'm impressed at the apparent medical research background of the engineers here, but personally, just like I wouldn't expect a clinical pathologist

Don't overestimate doctors. I had a problem with my wrist which I had to diagnose myself based on an MRI scan. Two specialists couldn't figure it out. Engineering principles apply to almost everything.

[mzzj]

The key to containing a virus is catching all people who are infected. The problem with the Covid 19 virus is, is that a large number of people get infected without serious symptoms so these fly below the radar. You can compare Covid19 to a stealth bomber. You don't notice it until it is too late and you have no idea where it hits next. If it would be easy to contain the Covid19 virus then it would have been done already. The SARS outbreak never reached the proportions of Covid19. The Covid19 outbreak started in November 2019. We are almost 3 months further and there is no end in sight.

^
This.

Covid-19 vs SARS : 9000 cases vs 250 000 verified cases and probably at least another 250000 cases untested at the moment.
SARS spread to 19 countries, Covid has already spread to every continent and 195 countries(some African countries don't have verified cases yet but that is mostly because of non-existing healtcare and testing)
add to that the stealthiness of Covid-19 and you'll see why its such a hard task.

Even if you tested every one of 7 billion population and quarantine each of them the virus would rebound back from somewhere eventually.

[rgarito]

Fyi, the population of the US is approximately 330 million.

As of today, the CDC reports there have been a total of 150 deaths in the US so far from COVID-19.

And of those who contract it, the death rate is around 2 to 4%.

CDC also estimates that in the last 5 months there have been 22,000 - 55,000 deaths from the ordinary flu.

Going overboard with rational precautions is a good thing, but irrational fear is never a good thing.

This is what we call the calm before the storm.  Those of us in Florida who go through hurricanes see this every year.  The "but it's only a Cat-1 storm" or "it isn't going to hit here" or "I've been through worse."

Yeah...  Ask those of us who went through Wilma about cat-1 storms.  This isolation/no supplies/no food thing?  Been there, done that.  We had no electricity for 30 DAYS and you couldn't even get gas for your generators because the gas stations had no power or generators either (now they are mandated to have generators by law).

Complacency is NOT your friend.  Many have died at hurricane parties...

Look at Italy.  Their death count just passed China.  Let's get out the grade-school math:
China population:  1.4 BILLION
Italy Population:  60.3 MILLION

Yet Italy had more deaths ALREADY than China had....  Methinks China wasn't as truthful about their death counts.  Something is SERIOUSLY wrong.

[coppice]

FWIW, I found a news article from last month on what happened to SARS and what might happen to COVID-19:

"John Nicholls, clinical professor of pathology at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), said the SARS outbreak was brought to an end in July 2003 by good hygiene practices -- such as frequent hand-washing -- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."

Yep, I lived through that. Automated taps were always popular in HK, but during SARS most of the remaining manual taps in public places were replaced with automated ones. The button panels in elevators were covered in plastic film, which was wiped with steriliser every hour, and the film replaced every day. Communal door handles were sterilised every hour. And so on. Wearing a mask when sick was always a practice in Japan, but it would have looked odd in HK. SARS broke any taboo, and huge numbers of HK people wore masks in public. This practice has persisted until today. Large numbers of people in HK now wear masks when they have colds and flu to reduce their effect on others. Then the temperature and humidity rose, and it was all over. The great fear was it would come back at the end of the year, as the temperature fell, but luckily is didn't.

"That will be the same for this one," he said. "My feeling is that this is just going to be like SARS and the world is going to get basically a very bad cold for about five months."

There is no guarantee of that, but so far all the bad outbreaks seem to have occurred in places at a similar temperature and humidity, so its probably a typical temperature sensitive virus.

Of course, I'm sure in the medical community there are many varied opinions on this, and since I have zero medical experience I can't comment, but at least it seems reasonable to consider that maybe this will go the way of the other coronaviruses and just die out.

Not really. This is well established stuff. There is a reason colds and flu are mostly winter problems. Your chances of catching most flu like virii is considerably reduced if you just keep your nose warm at all times. The rapid rise of mask wearing in HK during SARS probably reduced infection as much by insulating people's noses when they went outside as by reducing the inhalation of the virus.

[rgarito]

I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.

This is one of those rumours we should be careful with. Relaying it can spread irrational fears quickly. It also a stupid thing to do as no one will touch your cash money. I happened to have a larger amount than usual in my wallet and I can't spend it!

The panic shopping has to do with us Americans being brought up that this is "the land of plenty."  Everyone assumes that obtaining anything at all is as simple as going to the corner store or going on Amazon.  Many people food shop daily, believe it or not.  (you'd swear refrigerators haven't been invented yet).  And a huge part of the population thinks "cooking" means "putting last night's McDonalds hamburger in the microwave." 

To say we are spoiled, is an understatement.

[Someone]

-- and environmental factors such as high temperature and humidity in the summer months."

Yep, that is something what we discussed earlier, I would add more UV from sunshine in spring/summer will a) damage the virus on surfaces and in air, b) people exposed to sunshine create vitamin D (it supports immune system).
PS: I've been using "damage" instead of "kill" as the virus is not an living organism..
PPS: what the people down under think about it? Covid19 in summer?

Seasonality is much more complex:
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-deaths/seasonality-of-death/contents/table-of-contents
There are larger trends as the causes of death change with time, and the Spanish flu made a noticeable blip in total deaths.

[rgarito]

I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.

I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.

So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this.

Remember that COVID-19 is actually SARS-CoV-2.  It is closely related to SARS and possibly a mutation of it.

[hamster_nz]

I am looking at the numbers as an engineer. Just look at the WHO documents provided earlier in this thread. From those it is clear that a lockdown will only slow the Corona virus down. As soon as the lockdown is relaxed the spread will continue. A vaccine combined with herd immunity are the only effective weapons we can use.

Why didn't that lockdown relaxation phenomena you describe happen with SARS? And MERS?

People fell ill at about the same time that they became infectious.

This allowed ill people to remove themselves from the wider community before the infection could transfer. This made it possible to drop the effective reproduction rate to below 1.0 (allowing it to die out), without the need to isolating large numbers of seemingly healthy people.

[VK3DRB]

Another Lesson Learned from this situation is the US and EU should return production of some materials, chemicals, equipment and other important goods back to US and EU.

It has no sense to have production sites in Far East just because the production costs are ie. 4x lower, and when really needed you have to pay 50x more for it, moreover, you cannot get in time and in the amounts required.

Every government at least in EU is complaining today "we don't have this and that handy as it is produced in Far East and to get something off there is difficult, or, it costs you an arm and leg today".

These kind of pandemics will repeat much more often in the future with a similar scenario, so we have to be able to produce the stuff at home.

The only reason the West relies on so much stuff made in Asia is greed in its purest form, by corporations, governments and individuals. The West is now reaping what it has sowed.

Those Apple fanboys who cannot get the latest iPhone - my heart bleeds .

Electronics manufacturing should return to the West, IMO. Manufacturing is now highly automated, so there is little excuse not to relocate to the West other than much of the skills and infrastructure we once had is now lost.

[hamster_nz]

I think if folks do some research on SARS and MERS and the other coronaviruses from previous years you'll find that once you lock down transmission they kind of die of their own accord. No vaccines, they just die out. No SARS cases since 2004, and very few MERS cases. And has been said they were much worse in terms of % of infected people who ended up dying.

I recall reading that SARS died out in around 6 months (?). Unfortunately there isn't much detail I can find on exactly why they just whithered away (and probably wouldn't understand the medical details anyway), but they did. And they're all similar to COVID-19 in terms of being coronaviruses.

So again, if you want to be fearful then be my guest. But I prefer to look for facts, and be overly cautious, not fearful, in cases like this.

Remember that COVID-19 is actually SARS-CoV-2.  It is closely related to SARS and possibly a mutation of it.

No - no chance of it being a close/recent mutation - too many differences. The closest is Bat Cronavirus.

You can check this yourself.

Hop on to https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947

Select a random line of the genome: In this case I randomly picked "taagtacaag tattttagtg gagcaatgga tacaactagc tacagagaag ctgcttgttg"

The use the "Run BLAST" link on the top right.

Paste the sequence in the "search" window, and see what matches.

For that sequence, 2019-nCoV is all of the "111" scores - a 100% match

The next highest (106 - a 98.3% match) is "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate 2019-nCoV/USA-CA9/2020, complete genome" and then "Bat coronavirus RaTG13, complete genome".

The original SARS is nowhere to be seen, because no significant match is found.