Covid 19 virus

[iMo]

..
I South Florida, the most popular Spring Break beaches were closed on Sunday.  So what did the damn kids do?  They all moved over to the west (Gulf) coast of Florida and moved the party there....  (it's about a 90 mile drive away)  SMH.  These damn kids just refuse to "get it."  Not sure if they finally decided to close those beaches, too.

Why do kids feel immortal:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/your-brain-food/201008/why-do-teenagers-feel-immortal

[Mr. Scram]

I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.

This is one of those rumours we should be careful with. Relaying it can spread irrational fears quickly. It also a stupid thing to do as no one will touch your cash money. I happened to have a larger amount than usual in my wallet and I can't spend it!

[Nominal Animal]

I'm skeptical of the efficacy of testing. Say you get tested, then on the way out of the clinic or on your way home you pick up the virus. A day or so later, however long the test results take you are notified that you are negative so you go out and interact with others except you are not actually negative because you picked up the virus after being tested and now you have a false sense of security from the negative test. Perhaps I'm overlooking something though.

In Finland, the problem is that lack of testing hides the problem.

The same kind of problem occurred over a decade ago, when certain older lady politicians get fed up with street prostitution.  Certain laws were put in place, and now there is very little street prostitution in Helsinki.  What you do have, however, is lots more human trafficing, especially for prostitution; slavery and so on.
But, since it is hidden, and not in-your-face, these older lady politicians are happy and not annoyed anymore, so they consider it a very good win.

See?  It is not to help people feel safe, but to realize they are not; that they can be virus spreaders even if they feel perfectly healthy.

It is a completely different thing for even a respected doctor to say that although Finland is supposed to only have 400 cases, the true number is likely an order of magnitude higher, and actually having those bigger numbers from testing, when the problem is that most people don't think the situation is serious enough for them to behave any different.

[coppice]

..
I South Florida, the most popular Spring Break beaches were closed on Sunday.  So what did the damn kids do?  They all moved over to the west (Gulf) coast of Florida and moved the party there....  (it's about a 90 mile drive away)  SMH.  These damn kids just refuse to "get it."  Not sure if they finally decided to close those beaches, too.

Why do kids feel immortal:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/your-brain-food/201008/why-do-teenagers-feel-immortal

I think it must be a bit more complex than that. Some people are pretty careless in their youth, but many of us grow up with a deep sense of our own vulnerability.

[Wimberleytech]

That makes no sense to me.  You see barter when the central banks aren't trusted, or when there's high inflation.  There's no sign of either of those happening.

Around here people don't even want to make cash transactions, let alone bartering.  Too much personal contact.

I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.

I live in a small rural town in Texas (near a high-tech metropolis).  People are acting reasonably sane.  Yeah, some items at the store are cleaned out, but when you go to an establishment you do not sense any panic.

I am still trying to get my head around this meltdown.  Was an unbeliever at first.  Trying to come around to believing this is as big of a threat as advertised, but it is hard...just looking at the numbers.  The spreading factor of covid19 appears to be pretty much in line with the flu.  The mortality appears to tilt heavily to the older population (like me!!) but even then it seems to be those with underlying conditions.  Mortality rate...we need more data.

I have looked at the data for the Princess Cruise ship.  Only 1% of the infected died.  Not everybody on the ship got infected.  That is certainly more than the common flu would have caused but it is not crazy big.

It is an election year here in the US.  I suspect that fact causes some unnatural behavior.

[Marco]

Don't be so sure. The dot com bust and the recession in 2008 were devastating and took years to recover from, this could lead into another Great Depression which took a major world war to break out of.

They were still largely on the gold standard by then.

Of course in a way the Euro is a second gold standard, crippling the way European countries can respond to deflationary pressure. This is going to be hard on the Eurozone and perhaps the Danish Krone.

[Mr. Scram]

I think it must be a big more complex than that. Some people are pretty careless in their youth, but many of us grow up with a deep sense of our own vulnerability.

Our advancing understanding of biology makes it abundantly clear that teen brains may seem fully operational but are far from in specific and critical areas. It seems a very large part of youthful carelessness may be attributed to this. We're still figuring out what this means for how we deal with their behaviour, which includes crime.

[DrG]

This issue of the millennials not respecting the restrictions is an interesting one. I personally do not have the data to evaluate how widespread the lack of adherence to the restrictions is and whether it is clearly an age-related factor. As everyone knows, the most spectacular violations get the most publicity and frequency data is elusive.

I don't much care for the #BoomerRemover mentality although the millenials that I have known best, including the ones who have worked for me, are all very fine people, morally and ethically - including a strong work ethic.

They have taught me much and I personally respect their passion for environmental concerns.

Patient compliance turns to public compliance in a pandemic.

In the JAMA interview that Fauci gave yesterday (I linked to it earlier), there was a distinct appeal to "Social Conscience".  I am interested in seeing whether this will "take" so to speak...for everyone, but particularly millenials.
 

[Mr. Scram]

I live in a small rural town in Texas (near a high-tech metropolis).  People are acting reasonably sane.  Yeah, some items at the store are cleaned out, but when you go to an establishment you do not sense any panic.

I am still trying to get my head around this meltdown.  Was an unbeliever at first.  Trying to come around to believing this is as big of a threat as advertised, but it is hard...just looking at the numbers.  The spreading factor of covid19 appears to be pretty much in line with the flu.  The mortality appears to tilt heavily to the older population (like me!!) but even then it seems to be those with underlying conditions.  Mortality rate...we need more data.

I have looked at the data for the Princess Cruise ship.  Only 1% of the infected died.  Not everybody on the ship got infected.  That is certainly more than the common flu would have caused but it is not crazy big.

It is an election year here in the US.  I suspect that fact causes some unnatural behavior.

Considering large parts of the world are only casually interested in the US elections I don't think the response is related. Internally within the US some of the response does seem shaped by the coming election. Though even the election may be postponed.

[Wimberleytech]

Considering large parts of the world are only casually interested in the US elections I don't think the response is related. Internally within the US some of the response does seem shaped by the coming election. Though even the election may be postponed.

Granted.  But my point was directed to what is going on in the US in both media and politics.  Politicians are penalized more for under-reacting, so naturally, they will martial forces for the worst-case scenario.  Media reports, people panic, more over-reaction, etc (zero phase margin!).  To the extent that the US has a tincture of impact on the rest of the world, others are effected.

[mzzj]

It is a completely different thing for even a respected doctor to say that although Finland is supposed to only have 400 cases, the true number is likely an order of magnitude higher, and actually having those bigger numbers from testing, when the problem is that most people don't think the situation is serious enough for them to behave any different.

I think anyone following news around here has seen the THL (Local "CDC") estimates that the number of real cases is 20-30 times higher than tested.
Latest info was that they run about 1000 tests per 5 million people daily  but its mostly for healthcare workers.

[Mr. Scram]

Granted.  But my point was directed to what is going on in the US in both media and politics.  Politicians are penalized more for under-reacting, so naturally, they will martial forces for the worst-case scenario.  Media reports, people panic, more over-reaction, etc (zero phase margin!).  To the extent that the US has a tincture of impact on the rest of the world, others are effected.

This tendency to polarize and move towards the extremes while eliminating the middle ground has long been an issue in politics. Unfortunately US politics seem to suffer considerably from this. Pandering to people's fear is much easier than nuance and the risk of getting it wrong sooner or later is one most politicians are unwilling to take even if it's better for society. Alarmist rationales are rarely punished because it makes you look like you both care and act. The video below gives some interesting insights into the process of polarization.

https://youtu.be/rE3j_RHkqJc

[not1xor1]

absolutely wrong
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue

Do you have a source for that? So far the overwhelming majority of deaths seem to concern to already sick or fragile people. Young and fit people seem to not get sick or suffer from flu like symptoms.

patient one in Codogno, Northern Italy, was 38 healthy and fit (he was a runner and an amateur football player)
he had to stay in ICU for a couple of weeks

many other stories like that here (yesterday a 29 years old athlete) with more than 40 thousand positive cases
lots of not so old medical staff are dying too
please stop spreading misinformation as that will encourage people to spread the disease too

for instance refer to this https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html:

Researchers analyzed the cases of 731 children in China with laboratory test-confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 1,412 children who were suspected of having COVID-19.

Most of those 2,143 cases were mild, and only one child died. Close to 6% of the children's cases were severe or critical, compared with 18.5% of cases in adults.

[SiliconWizard]

Instead of confining EVERYONE, we could just confine people that are either NOT tested yet or tested positive. People tested negative with a valid proof could be waived of confinement. Pretty simple.

Or better yet, test people like cashiers and postmen and delivery people, so that those who need to interact with others would not be spreading the virus.

Which is included in what I just said. I agree this should be priority of course, but then that could be extended to as many people as possible.

[not1xor1]

Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.

Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.

you can't see what is clearly there if you refuse to see it

[Simon]

I have 40 and 50 somethings at work not taking it seriously. On our shop floor people are mingling as usual even though no one needs to be within 2 meters of each other during normal work. Group visits to the toilets like a bunch of girls. Management are hopeless and too slow to react - after taking their heads out of the sand.

[Mr. Scram]

patient one in Codogno, Northern Italy, was 38 healthy and fit (he was a runner and an amateur football player)
he had to stay in ICU for a couple of weeks

many other stories like that here (yesterday a 29 years old athlete) with more than 40 thousand positive cases
lots of not so old medical staff are dying too
please stop spreading misinformation as that will encourage people to spread the disease too

for instance refer to this https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-typically-mild-kids.html:

Researchers analyzed the cases of 731 children in China with laboratory test-confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 1,412 children who were suspected of having COVID-19.

Most of those 2,143 cases were mild, and only one child died. Close to 6% of the children's cases were severe or critical, compared with 18.5% of cases in adults.

You're severely misrepresenting my statements. I responded to a statement that a large proportion of young people need serious treatment. They don't, with some exceptions also discussed. People older than 60-70 years old represent the overwhelming majority of serious case requiring treatment. This in no way encourages behaviour which spreads the virus. One must be an unprecedented idiot to think you don't need to take precautions if you are unlikely to get seriously ill. This simply doesn't follow from the facts we established. Carelessness kills people even if it's not you. We all play a role in preventing spread.

[not1xor1]

The virus got us off-guard because it didn't didn't get here from China. Italy was the first country just by chance. But apart Spain no other country has been able to learn ....

You are wrong. Spain haven't yet learnt any. Spain is giving of stick of blind.

Spanish situation is not so deeply covered by the newspapers here, so I may have got a wrong feeling of the real situation (although I found quite hard to grasp the meaning of what you wrote)

the main problems here are:
- supply of essential protection devices is lacking (here and all over the world)
- too many idiots have not realized yet the real danger of the situation and do not abide by the quarantine rules so the infection rate is not decreasing as fast as it could

stay at home as much as you can, get out as little as you can
if you get out: stay as far as possible from other people, protect your mouth and nose, don't touch your eyes and wash accurately your hands and face as soon as you get back at home

[Zero999]

That makes no sense to me.  You see barter when the central banks aren't trusted, or when there's high inflation.  There's no sign of either of those happening.

Around here people don't even want to make cash transactions, let alone bartering.  Too much personal contact.

I read yesterday that there is a problem now with people pulling their money out of banks but I don't know how widespread it is. Don't underestimate the levels of irrational behavior that can be caused by panic, it spreads like a virus itself and leads to all kinds of crazy things and self-fulfilling prophecies. It's a basic human trait, I mean people get killed in stampedes to get cheap discounted junk in stores on black friday sales. Nobody is going to say it's rational to stampede and kill someone over a waffle maker but it happens.

I live in a small rural town in Texas (near a high-tech metropolis).  People are acting reasonably sane.  Yeah, some items at the store are cleaned out, but when you go to an establishment you do not sense any panic.

I am still trying to get my head around this meltdown.  Was an unbeliever at first.  Trying to come around to believing this is as big of a threat as advertised, but it is hard...just looking at the numbers.  The spreading factor of covid19 appears to be pretty much in line with the flu.  The mortality appears to tilt heavily to the older population (like me!!) but even then it seems to be those with underlying conditions.  Mortality rate...we need more data.

I have looked at the data for the Princess Cruise ship.  Only 1% of the infected died.  Not everybody on the ship got infected.  That is certainly more than the common flu would have caused but it is not crazy big.

It is an election year here in the US.  I suspect that fact causes some unnatural behavior.

It doesn't have to be crazily worse than the flu.

I believe the death rate is a bit higher than flu and it's slightly more contagious. The spread of viruses typically follows a logistic function and most places are still in the exponential growth phase of the virus, so slightly reducing transmission rates will drastically reduce the peak, hopefully to a point where the health system can cope. The problem is we don't know enough yet. In the long term, the only way to reduce the number of people who are going to get this is to develop a vaccine.

[Mr. Scram]

you can't see what is clearly there if you refuse to see it

The only thing I clearly see is the distinct lack of sources. It's remarkable how alarmist tendencies seem inversely proportional to the amount of sources posted.

[not1xor1]

[...]
I would like people to do that with the common flu as well, which Covid is still not even close to catching up to in terms of deaths as of now. It may indeed become far worse but that doesn't change the fact that the flu has already killed 12,000 in the USA and yet we have idiots who refuse to get the cheap and readily available vaccination for that.

you are just at the beginning
flue doesn't kill people by the thousands a day as COVID-19 might soon do here and/or would have surely done without any containment measure

flue doesn't kill healthy and 40-50 years old medical staff
you have no idea what you are going to deal with

[Wimberleytech]

Granted.  But my point was directed to what is going on in the US in both media and politics.  Politicians are penalized more for under-reacting, so naturally, they will martial forces for the worst-case scenario.  Media reports, people panic, more over-reaction, etc (zero phase margin!).  To the extent that the US has a tincture of impact on the rest of the world, others are effected.

This tendency to polarize and move towards the extremes while eliminating the middle ground has long been an issue in politics. Unfortunately US politics seem to suffer considerably from this. Pandering to people's fear is much easier than nuance and the risk of getting it wrong sooner or later is one most politicians are unwilling to take even if it's better for society. Alarmist rationales are rarely punished because it makes you look like you both care and act. The video below gives some interesting insights into the process of polarization.

https://youtu.be/rE3j_RHkqJc

Yup!

[Zero999]

[...]
I would like people to do that with the common flu as well, which Covid is still not even close to catching up to in terms of deaths as of now. It may indeed become far worse but that doesn't change the fact that the flu has already killed 12,000 in the USA and yet we have idiots who refuse to get the cheap and readily available vaccination for that.

you are just at the beginning
flue doesn't kill people by the thousands a day as COVID-19 might soon do here and/or would have surely done without any containment measure

flue doesn't kill healthy and 40-50 years old medical staff
you have no idea what you are going to deal with

Yes and here's a good YouTube video about the mathematics of covid's growth, which I'm sure most people here will be familiar with but seem to need reminding of.

[not1xor1]

Most people are not saying that Covid-19 is harmless but rather it is not drastically more dangerous than the flu and yet the reaction is about 10 orders of magnitude more severe, I've never in my life seen this kind of hype around an infectious disease, and I'd like to see a bit of it spread out to other deadly diseases and less panic overall. The economic fallout of the panic is going to be far more harmful ultimately than the disease itself.

as I wrote many times, people have acquired immunity against flue, while COVID-19 is unknown to the immune system, besides that COVID-19 attaches to ACE2 receptors, affects blood pressure regulation and unlike flue may seriously damage your lungs (flue viruses generally do that indirectly by favoring other pathogens)

[Mr. Scram]

you are just at the beginning
flue doesn't kill people by the thousands a day as COVID-19 might soon do here and/or would have surely done without any containment measure

flue doesn't kill healthy and 40-50 years old medical staff
you have no idea what you are going to deal with

Medical staff gets inoculated for flu every year with near compete coverage for those in contact with patients. From the CDC: "By occupation, flu vaccination coverage was highest among physicians (96.7%), nurses (98.1%), pharmacists (91.5%), and nurse practitioners and physician assistants (91.0%)".