Covid 19 virus

[not1xor1]

We're in the wild guessing range so it seems. There is shortage of everything, including test kits. So figures are off. The WHO wants countries to test more so they get their numbers right, but what do you do when there's a limited amount of tests left in the field? They mainly reserve them for hospitalized patients or severe cases. Others with suspect symptoms are told to stay at home and call emergency when its gets really worse, period.

the problem is not (just) the shortage (or cost) of test kits.
It is logistic.
You need trained people (who are already busy with people in the hospitals) with full protective devices to test mr A and then test mr B ensuring you do not transmit the virus from A to B. It takes lots of time and resources. Both of which we lack for sure.

[not1xor1]

It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

absolutely wrong
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue

[hamster_nz]

..
Even if UK has the best health care and infinite resource to take care of everyone, it would at best be able to get mortality rate down to 1%.

Where this 1% comes from??

Generally mentioned parameters:

Without proactive testing, around 25% of infected people get tested - others have mild/no symptoms and don't get tested.

10% of those tested positive require hospitalization (~ 2.5% if testing a large proportion of population)

3.4% of those tested positive die (~ 1% if testing a large proportion of population).

If you want to check these numbers have a look at South Korea, who have been testing the crap out of people: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/ Currently 8,413 cases, and 84 deaths. They have performed more than 4 tests per thousand people. Compared to say the USA's 0.026 tests per thousand. (see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ )

[floobydust]

Finally some recent research data on the fomites.  SARS-CoV-2 (formerly called HCoV-19) Stability Similar to Original SARS Virus.
New Coronavirus Stable for Hours on Surfaces

"... detectable in aerosols for up to three hours, up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel."
Half-life: "... Half-life about 66 minutes for half the virus particles to lose function if they are in an aerosol droplet. That means that after another hour and six minutes (two hours and 12 minutes in total), three-quarters of the virus particles will be essentially inactivated but 25 per cent will still be viable. The amount of viable virus at the end of the third hour will be down to 12.5 per cent, according to the research led by Neeltje van Doremalen of NIAID's Montana facility at Rocky Mountain Laboratories.
On stainless steel, it takes five hours 38 minutes for half of the virus particles to become inactive. On plastic, the half-life is six hours 49 minutes, researchers found.
On cardboard, the half-life was about 3.5 hours, but the researchers said there was a lot of variability in those results "so we advise caution" interpreting that number."

Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1
"We found that the stability of SARS-CoV-2 was similar to that of SARS-CoV-1 under the experimental circumstances tested. This indicates that differences in the epidemiologic characteristics of these viruses probably arise from other factors, including high viral loads in the upper respiratory tract and the potential for persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 to shed and transmit the virus while asymptomatic.3,4  Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days (depending on the inoculum shed). These findings echo those with SARS-CoV-1, in which these forms of transmission were associated with nosocomial spread and super-spreading events,5 and they provide information for pandemic mitigation efforts.."

[Cerebus]

I think a lot of the wackos are just hoarders, you see the same thing with test equipment.

[Fx: Foghorn Leghorn accent] Now hold, I say, hold on. Ya need to be careful saying things like that around here. It could get real ugly real fast... 

[nctnico]

Finally some recent research data on the fomites.  SARS-CoV-2 (formerly called HCoV-19) Stability Similar to Original SARS Virus.

Long story short: desinfect your hands and what you are touching outside your home.

[paulca]

So my daughter is in lock down along with her Mum.  Her granny became symptomatic yesterday, nothing confirmed, but precautionary.  I haven't had contact with my daughter for 6 days.  So not included in mandatory lock down.  I'm still voluntarily so for 5 days.

I have also reports of at least two other families in my wider friends network, symptomatic, in lock down.  Heard the neighbour bark coughing all day and seen an ambulance visiting another house in my street today.

People here keep posting pictures from the pub and making light of it.  When challenged they get defensive and say things like, "Don't judge me.  Sure, people are out there getting it.  But if i chose to have a few drinks and enjoy myself I will!".  They just don't get it, that it's not "out there", it's right here, it's not coming, it's right now.  I give it a week before the shit has hit the fan properly here.

Northern Ireland reports 62 cases.  I call bullshit on that.

[Mr. Scram]

absolutely wrong
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue

Do you have a source for that? So far the overwhelming majority of deaths seem to concern to already sick or fragile people. Young and fit people seem to not get sick or suffer from flu like symptoms.

[Sredni]

Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is plausible, since the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for hours and on surfaces up to days

Does this translate in "we're fucked!", in plain English?

[paulca]

absolutely wrong
even lots of young and fit people would die without intensive care and expensive machinery to help them breath (and some is diying notwithstanding that)
those kind of people are not usually affected by the flue

Do you have a source for that? So far the overwhelming majority of deaths seem to concern to already sick or fragile people. Young and fit people seem to not get sick or suffer from flu like symptoms.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

[thinkfat]

Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.

[Mr. Scram]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

That just confirms what I said?

[Mr. Scram]

Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.

Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.

[vodka]

The Goddamn experts can go to hell.  It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the  borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.

The virus got us off-guard because it didn't didn't get here from China. Italy was the first country just by chance. But apart Spain no other country has been able to learn ....

You are wrong. Spain haven't yet learnt any. Spain is giving of stick of blind. Here, when the goverment was been  wroten the measure of the state of emergency. The forth viceminister break the quarantine and wnet to Moncloa for imposing his plan Venezuela: expropriations and nationalizations and banninig the take the competencies of health and security in Catuluña and Pais Vasco. The reunion dured several hours until the economy minister the threatened with her resignation if the plan of 4th Viceminister is aproved. Luckly, the plan of 4 viceminister wasn't aproved.

At this moment, we have several goverment infected with case mild of covid, but this motherfucker released test them.  While the sanitary personal, suspect infected and mild cases are denied constantly.

At Cataluña , the medics , nurses , policeman and prision official have banned to wear MASK. Furthermore , the sons of bitches have a mask factory(Cataluña goverment) with all their production destined to Italy when here lack mask in all hospitals of region.Why don't they increase the production? By phenicians.

Armancio Ortega has offered all his factories and his logistic for manufactoring masks and other medic equipment. What is "Falconetti" waiting for approving?  That the chinese comunity have to donate masks  to Guardia Civil and the National police. That is shameful and sultry.

Spain corrected their wrong when make these stuff:

  1.To fire a Francisco Simon by lied and fail all the pronostics.
  2.To hang by the balls or of pigtail  to Pablo Iglesia ,4th Viceminister for violating the quarantine.
  3.Displacing the UME to Pais Vasco and Cataluña like the rest of Spain .
  4.Take away the Falcon to Falconetty and forming with 2 Viceminister a  coalition goverment with the opposition.
  5.Put to manufacturing  medical items with the army drug factory,  with anothers factories like Amancio Ortega.
 

[thinkfat]

Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.

Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.

Google search for "corona virus age bracket", first hit:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-new-age-analysis-of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/

The CDC does not have complete data (such as on use of an ICU) for all counted cases, and therefore gave a range for its estimates.

More than raw numbers, the percent of total cases gives a sense of the risk to different age groups. For instance, just 1.6% to 2.5% of 123 infected people 19 and under were admitted to hospitals; none needed intensive care and none has died.

But of the 144 cases in people 85 and older, 31% to 71% were hospitalized and 6.3% to 29% needed intensive care. The death rate in that age group was 10% to 27%.

In contrast, among people 20 to 44, 14% to 21% of 705 cases were admitted to hospitals and 2% to 4% to ICUs; 0.1% to 0.2% died.

So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.

[paulca]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

That just confirms what I said?

I wasn't countering either of your points of view, just had that reference to hand in another browser tab.

[paulca]

So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.

No.  Chances are you won't be.  You have less probability of being hospitalized than not being.

That does not fit with the qualifier "Chances are."

Chances are you won't.... though you still could.

[nctnico]

So my daughter is in lock down along with her Mum.  Her granny became symptomatic yesterday, nothing confirmed, but precautionary.  I haven't had contact with my daughter for 6 days.  So not included in mandatory lock down.  I'm still voluntarily so for 5 days.

I have also reports of at least two other families in my wider friends network, symptomatic, in lock down.  Heard the neighbour bark coughing all day and seen an ambulance visiting another house in my street today.

People here keep posting pictures from the pub and making light of it.  When challenged they get defensive and say things like, "Don't judge me.  Sure, people are out there getting it.  But if i chose to have a few drinks and enjoy myself I will!".  They just don't get it, that it's not "out there", it's right here, it's not coming, it's right now.  I give it a week before the shit has hit the fan properly here.

People are weird that way. Belgium went in lock-down. What do you think the Belgians do? The come to the Netherlands to go to the pub   
As a result all the restaurants and pubs in the Netherlands got closed quickly. And I have another problem... I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.

[thinkfat]

So, yes, if you're not already in your twenties, chances are you just shrug it off. But in every other age bracket, chances are you're in for hospitalization and even ICU treatment.

No.  Chances are you won't be.  You have less probability of being hospitalized than not being.

That does not fit with the qualifier "Chances are."

Chances are you won't.... though you still could.

Well, yes. I'm no native speaker and Germans don't have an equal affinity to betting as you Brits do

[james_s]

So my daughter is in lock down along with her Mum.  Her granny became symptomatic yesterday, nothing confirmed, but precautionary.  I haven't had contact with my daughter for 6 days.  So not included in mandatory lock down.  I'm still voluntarily so for 5 days.

I have also reports of at least two other families in my wider friends network, symptomatic, in lock down.  Heard the neighbour bark coughing all day and seen an ambulance visiting another house in my street today.

People here keep posting pictures from the pub and making light of it.  When challenged they get defensive and say things like, "Don't judge me.  Sure, people are out there getting it.  But if i chose to have a few drinks and enjoy myself I will!".  They just don't get it, that it's not "out there", it's right here, it's not coming, it's right now.  I give it a week before the shit has hit the fan properly here.

People are weird that way. Belgium went in lock-down. What do you think the Belgians do? The come to the Netherlands to go to the pub   
As a result all the restaurants and pubs in the Netherlands got closed quickly. And I have another problem... I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.

In physics every action has an equal but opposite reaction. In society I think a similar thing happens, some people over-react to extreme levels of caution, leading other people to over-react to equally extreme levels of carlessness.

It's unfortunate that it has been so binary, rather than everyone just taking sensible steps like washing hands often and properly, staying home if they are sick or have been exposed to someone who is sick and just generally trying to avoid spreading infectious disease. I would like people to do that with the common flu as well, which Covid is still not even close to catching up to in terms of deaths as of now. It may indeed become far worse but that doesn't change the fact that the flu has already killed 12,000 in the USA and yet we have idiots who refuse to get the cheap and readily available vaccination for that.

[Cerebus]

I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.

At that point you've got two choices:

• Just let it grow and go for the "windswept and interesting look" like me 
• Grab your razor, shave it all off, and go for the "prematurely bald/army reject" look 

[flyte]

It's good to remember that this 1% or whatever it turns out to be are almost exclusively people who would have died from the regular flu or any other sickness. They may very well have died this year unprovoked. It's not unlikely the period after the major wave has unusually low numbers of people dying as the more fragile citizens are already gone. The vast majority of the population has much better chances than 1 in 100 and a small portion is at significant risk.

No way. Currently there are people on intensive care here in the 30-50 age group. Take the breathing equipment away and they might die. A regular flu does not put a substantial part of the healthy population on intensive care in a matter of weeks. And then there is more: doctors say patients who recover may face damaged lung tissue and be affected for life. That's not your regular flu.

[flyte]

People are weird that way. Belgium went in lock-down. What do you think the Belgians do? The come to the Netherlands to go to the pub   
As a result all the restaurants and pubs in the Netherlands got closed quickly. And I have another problem... I need to stay inside for more than two weeks but after that period I definitely need a haircut.

That was the less smart part of the Belgians. Most people got it more or less. But as always, the stupid part makes headlines.

[james_s]

Nobody really needs 10 guns .............

If it's a pursuit you don't partake in you can be excused for thinking such however for those that do and partake in the many sporting disciplines 10 might not be enough.
Like screwdrivers, you need a different one for each job.

It was just a number I pulled out of the air for the sake of illustration. I don't care how many of whatever object somebody has, the more important point is that one is not required to justify a need in order to own something, and when one is interested in something they tend to accumulate items related to that interest, usually more of said items than they truly need, and there's nothing wrong with that.

[flyte]

Even if the young and healthy won't die, it still means that many of them will need intensive care in order not to.

Do they? I'm not really seeing that right now.

Well the Italians did and we're seeing it now too. So you will be next to see it.