Covid 19 virus

[Zucca]

Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus

Feel for you, my cousin got it but she recovered. In her case the hit was more in her psycho than body. You start thinking who got it because of you in the past two weeks, and even the people you love are involved. I not even mention the rest of the story....

My old parents in Italy are in risk, and I can not do nothing for them, I am now located in Germany (...) .
It's horrible.

[paulca]

Report from a friend of the family who drive lorries Europe<>UK has said they have stopped the drivers and tractor units.  The docks are now loading the trailer units onto ferries with tugs only.  No citation though.

[VK3DRB]

Spoke to my daughter about a half hour ago. She had a few aches, tired etc and the temperature was up yesterday, but now it has come down. She is relatively young and very fit (runs half marathons), never eats junk food, has no underlying conditions and more recently (probably a good thing) was forced to work about over an hour in each direction thanks to strikes. So I guess her immune system is very good. She wont come back to Australia as she is a French dual citizen working and is well settled there and knowing what is going on here, she might have difficulty getting back. She book Etihad, but the airline is overwhelmed and you cannot get through. Prior to the lockdown, she said you cannot get rice at the big supermarkets. So she walked into a small Chinese grocery store - no problems. 5kg bags of rice and whatever are plentiful. She cannot go out now, but is fine. The French seem to be similar to us Australians - the herd mentality.

I am fearful of this massive cash splash by these panicking western governments. Economics 101: Too much money, not enough goods = inflation. High inflation leads to high interest rates.

[EEVblog]

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

Absolutely no doubt.
Countless healthy people and kids will get it and have few if any symptoms and just brush it off, never to be tested.
Maybe in a decade they'll get a routine blood test or something and be told "Hey, you had the coronavirus".

[VK3DRB]

This university dropout with no medical qualifications whatsoever warned of the virus pandemic with incredible insight... 5 YEARS AGO!

[hamster_nz]

Just passed 200,000 cases by woeldometer"s count...

Expecting 300k in four days

[thinkfat]

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

Absolutely no doubt.
Countless healthy people and kids will get it and have few if any symptoms and just brush it off, never to be tested.
Maybe in a decade they'll get a routine blood test or something and be told "Hey, you had the coronavirus".

There's plans over here to systematically test blood bank samples for coronavirus immune globulines  in order to assess the true spread of the virus. Also, development is underway for a new type of tests that will deliver results in minutes instead of days. Works similar to a pregnancy test. These tests will not be as sensitive as the currently dominant RT-PCR test kits but it is known that the virus load in the throat is very high already when people start to complain about symptoms. These tests will be sensitive to the proteins of the virus' hull, not to the RNA. You need a higher concentration of virus material but as mentioned, that will not be a problem. Once produced in masses, they will immensely improve test coverage.

[flyte]

I get what you are saying, but keep this in mind....IF the Brit's report, with specific regard to the projections illustrated by the figure that I posted, we do, in fact, avoid a catastrophic failure of the Health Care system IF the more stringent NPI protocol is enforced AND it is enforced for an extended period of time - that is MORE than the 5 months shown on the illustration of the model. IF the NPI is released after 5 months, the re-occurrence of the infection along with the assured failure of the Health Care system is predicted to happen shortly after the NPI is withdrawn.

THAT is the most sobering aspect of the report to me. One conclusion is that the stringent NPI HAS to be in effect for more than 5 months (how long??) unless an effective PI is deployed.

Further, the suggestion [is] that the same would occur anywhere that the stringent NPI has been relaxed. So, one might wonder, has the NPI been relaxed in South Korea, for example? Get what I am saying/asking?

Correct, albeit it would be hard and premature to stick a number on it. But measures will need to be applied for months, not just weeks.

And there's many unknowns, like general population health and immune response. But, on average, people are the same whichever side of the globe. The phantom of "we have a better a health care" will hit hard, as no health care system will be able to cope with the load of a free SARS-Cov-2 virus spread. Just look at what happened to other countries so far and their high healthcare quality standards.

But regardless of how accurate the report predictions really are, the NPI protocol will have to be very strict, in relative terms. Always a multiple stricter than what appears needed as given by the current figures, due to the reasons I've listed before. And there is the challenge, to get public opinion behind such measures without a readily observable facts in proximity. People are typically only willing to act based on current facts, not on impending trouble, even if it's just two weeks ahead.

The other part of your discussion, relaxing the NPI, is what I would call the phase two problem. Over here, this still has to come and China is about to enter it. I've seen statistics of previous old epidemics of the past which suggest that when measures are released too quickly, you effectively get a second, even higher, infection peak. So that's a very real worry indeed. And it will happen, people will feel "it's over and I want to get out now".

But, these would be "trouble for later", as we're all in the first phase of containment now and regarding the US, it still has to enter it the coming days/weeks.

However, regions which had a bad phase one, should have a less troublesome phase two, as their group immunity will be better.

Basically, as I've said before, there's two extreme options in the spectrum, none of which are realistic:

• Let nature do its thing and let the virus freely spread. Expect extreme cruelty from a society point of view, all weakest will die without medical care due to health infrastructure overload, with the benefit of very rapid group immunity and this "being over soon".
• Halt all personal contact and activity, and quarantaine everyone, without a single citizen disobeying. No group immunity but with the benefit of potentially ending virus spread before it progresses.

All realistic options are in between those. The more you go toward the last option, the longer the NPI measures period becomes and the less it will stress health care infrastructure, at the expense of economical distress.

[vad]

(Attachment Link)

See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong.

You are reading it wrong. The chart shows what would happen if both NPI scenarios last till the end of August (the blue band shows period of the restrictions assumed by the model). For example, for green line it tells that severe NPI measures including school closures could be efficacious. But once the restrictions are lifted at the start of September, health care system will become overwhelmed in less than 2 month, unless there would be some changes not taken into account by the model (like new therapies reducing the number of severe cases, virus mutations, availability of vaccine).

However, the chart does not tell what would happen if the restrictions stay in place beyond September, or how fast country would be left without available ICUs if restrictions are lifted earlier.

[Siwastaja]

The Goddamn experts can go to hell.  It were them saying 3 weeks ago that there is no need to close the  borders and they will never do it. Fuck your experts.

Experts are ok. I mean, real medical experts. WHO has given good advice; Chinese health experts have given good advice. They have also given good advice to the governments all over the world. But the governments didn't listen, because they are freaking stupid and the fear.

Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

For many, it's very confusing. For example, here I believe people have taken the official advice quite seriously, but because the official response has been two weeks too late from the start, it doesn't help. You need to listen to the actual experts directly, bypassing the officials (who add the 2-week delay). But only a small percentage of us does this.

[thinkfat]

All these measures just serve to buy time with economic damage. We need to increase the amount of intensive care units and at the same time plow ahead to discover effective methods of medical intervention. Economic damage will eventually force us to lift the restrictions on travel and business. Predictably, we'll all be walking around with face masks for many months.

[Nominal Animal]

Although EU is closing its borders to curb the spread of the pandemic, Finland and Sweden have emphasized that humanitarian migrants can still cross our borders unhindered, because that's what is most important right now, right?

For some people/politicians, ideological goals override even the life and death of others.

If my suspicions are right, this "we'll do some of the things suggested, but not all" approach will be worse than either the full isolation or no isolation at all, because ideological exceptions tend to have a demoralising effect.

I've started seeing signs that people are trying to actually help each other much more than before, and that could be a decisive factor with respect to the results.  But, if people see others ignoring the rules, they are more likely to break the rules themselves, which can negate the entire group effort.

[Siwastaja]

See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.

In that model, the actions are performed in a single, 5-month long step function (drawn as the blue background); these models completely stop the actions after 5 months, so it's not unsurprising that every scenario includes a second wave. Do note, however, that this second wave is smaller than the unmitigated wave. This is comforting.

In reality, the orange line and green line models would need to be accompanied with another action region (another blue region) to mitigate the secondary peaks. This would cause tertiary peaks, but they would be even smaller.

I'm sure the models do not represent the reality exactly, but they do show the mechanisms. Taking action is better than no action, but it's still bad, and likely, second and third waves will occur, requiring more actions; but it gets less severe once time goes by, especially when coupled with advancements in finding at least somewhat effective medicines; or finally, vaccine.

Another option, instead of pulse-width-modulating the response, is to adjust the level of social isolation (and other means; but social isolation is the biggest contributor) in a continuous, non-step-like manner, to regulate the number of cases.

[thinkfat]

I've started seeing signs that people are trying to actually help each other much more than before, and that could be a decisive factor with respect to the results.  But, if people see others ignoring the rules, they are more likely to break the rules themselves, which can negate the entire group effort.

Really? I'd more expect public shaming of the offenders. The Finnish people are said to be extremely sensitive to being judged by their peers, no?

[Nominal Animal]

Really? I'd more expect public shaming of the offenders. The Finnish people are said to be extremely sensitive to being judged by their peers, no?

Social pressure only works in groups of less than 2,000 or so people.  In cities like Helsinki, where a lot of people have moved to the city as young adults, anonymity is used as a shield against social pressure.  It is like backlash, after growing up in smaller circles where everybody knew you; suddenly you find yourself having the ability to sidestep all social pressure, and do what you want: it's not like they know you.

I do see a lot of young people just completely disregarding any quarantine efforts.  However, I've also seen indications I haven't seen here before, youngsters occasionally offering help to older people they don't know.  That could have been just a random occurrence, though.

What I do know, is that Finns will quietly (grumbling to themselves and their friends) do what they are told, as long as everyone has to do the same.

You let any subset of people off the hook, and very soon nobody will do it.  That sort of fairness is at the core of being a Finn.  "Is there really a need for social distancing, when our borders are kept open for humanitarian immigration?"  "If humanitarian immigrants get to travel as they wish, why should I stay home?"  It is this last one, that will bite Finland in the ass, I believe.

Now that we know that the virus becomes infectitious within a day or two, while the symptoms take around five days to become apparent, social distancing -- or whatever that makes people who believe they are not infected to behave as if they were, and stop spreading the virus around -- and quarantines are even more important than originally believed.  When the symptoms are detectable, the person has been spreading the virus already for days.  That is what we must try to limit here.

[BU508A]

Guys, for everyone with a 3D printer and want to help regarding the COVID-19 pandemie,
this is a very interesting project:

https://twitter.com/jonisborn/status/1238525868546445312

Quote:
We are working on open source ventilators in order to have a fast and easy solution to be reproduced and assembled locally worldwide.
If you have any skills that you consider might help, join us @ https://projectopenair.org
#projectopenair please RT and share
Earth globe americas
Flexed biceps
 #TogetherWeRise

[Bud]

Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.

[nctnico]

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

Absolutely no doubt.
Countless healthy people and kids will get it and have few if any symptoms and just brush it off, never to be tested.
Maybe in a decade they'll get a routine blood test or something and be told "Hey, you had the coronavirus".

Do they care? In Europe they have an influenza monitoring website to collect data. But that doesn't help much right now; it is nice for a hindsight report. Compare Germany and the Netherlands for example. Germany has over 10k confirmed cases and 26 deaths. In the Netherlands there are 2k confirmed cases and 58 deaths. One would say that the Netherlands has at least 10 times more cases than is being tested for.

[paulca]

Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.

Oh please tell us Lord almighty what should we do?

[vodka]

For the people still think the coranavirus only kill to elder people or than they have previous pathologies.

Today, a Military Policeman  with 37 years old and without previous pathologies have dead.

https://www.augc.org/comunicados/representante-augc-en-madrid-primer-guardia-civil-fallecido-por-contagio-coronavirus_20078_102.html

[nctnico]

For the people still think the coranavirus only kill to elder people or than they have previous pathologies.

Today, a Military Policeman  with 37 years old and without previous pathologies have dead.

Nobody ever claimed that younger people are not affected. The numbers however show that younger people have a significantly lower chance of dying from the Corona virus. Pointing out single cases is not helping anyone.

[Bud]

Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.

Oh please tell us Lord almighty what should we do?

Follow our instincts. Do what WE think make sense and look ahead how events may unfold. It is not a rocket science. It was clear 2 weeks ago borders must be shut off here in North America, let alone in Europe.

[DrG]

Politicians, and the health authorities have totally fucked it up almost everywhere; varying from a high, or even higher degree. But 99.99% of them are not actual experts.

But they say they are listening to experts. Take our PM Trudeau. When asked why he was so late with shutting off the border he said "I listened to experts". Guess where he is now. On quarantine at home.

Oh please tell us Lord almighty what should we do?

Follow our instincts. Do what WE think make sense and look ahead how events may unfold. It is not a rocket science. It was clear 2 weeks ago borders must be shut off here in North America, let alone in Europe.

What do we do when my instinct is different than your instinct?

[Cerebus]

This university dropout with no medical qualifications whatsoever warned of the virus pandemic with incredible insight... 5 YEARS AGO!

Anybody who's been a regular reader of New Scientist or similar level-headed board science journals/magazine could have told you that this is a "not of, but when" situation. There have been calls for better emergency preparedness for a pandemic going back to the 1980s when I started reading New Scientist.

[Cerebus]

There's plans over here to systematically test blood bank samples for coronavirus immune globulines  in order to assess the true spread of the virus.

That's a canny idea.

Also, development is underway for a new type of tests that will deliver results in minutes instead of days. Works similar to a pregnancy test. These tests will not be as sensitive as the currently dominant RT-PCR test kits but it is known that the virus load in the throat is very high already when people start to complain about symptoms. These tests will be sensitive to the proteins of the virus' hull, not to the RNA. You need a higher concentration of virus material but as mentioned, that will not be a problem. Once produced in masses, they will immensely improve test coverage.

I'd imagine that more than one group started working on this as soon as it looked like SARS-Covid-2 was a problem. It's probably an ELISA test. They are relatively quick to develop, the trickiest bit is genetically engineering a bacterium or yeast to produce antibodies to the virus' coat proteins. The hard part is producing a DNA sequence to code for an antibody to the coat proteins, after that its just routine work that has been done for 100 ELISA tests before. It's easier to make an ELISA test that produces a colour change that's outside the visible spectrum, uses fully wet chemistry and needs an instrument to read the results (similar, ish, to blood glucose meters that take test strips). Producing one that indicates with a visible colour change and only uses dry chemistry (like pregnancy tests) is harder. So it's possible that we'll see a laboratory version quite some time before we'll see a 'field test'.