Covid 19 virus

[not1xor1]

regarding the bullshit somebody wrote about the spread of the virus in Italy, you can also check Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

it looks like we got that from Germany...

It has been subsequently reported that the origin of these cases has a possible connection to the first European local transmission that occurred in Munich, Germany, on 19 January 2020, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of viral genome.[30][31][32] The 38-year-old man was asymptomatic for weeks, reportedly led an active social life and potentially interacted with dozens of people before spreading the virus at Codogno Hospital

nobody expected that

[Zucca]

Keep your ass at home. The rest is not so relevant at the moment in my eyes...
Finger pointing is not productive, let's just help each other to overcome this mess.
What we write here will not change the situation, unless we are posting from our home.

[DBecker]

I even read US people are going to buy weapons like crazy ... I do not know if they are afraid somebody comes and steal their stock of toilet paper or if the pretend to kill the virus by shooting 

Normally I would dismiss those guys who hoard guns and ammo as lunatics however watching this unfold makes them look not quite as crazy. I would not be hugely surprised if some areas start to have problems with groups of people going around robbing others of supplies or taking advantage of the quarantines and distractions keeping law enforcement busy to start looting businesses. Unfortunately there are always those who will take advantage of any situation to help themselves, we see it all the time, a natural disaster hits and people start looting stores, stealing TVs and computers and stuff like that which is obviously not essential. 

I've not seen anything besides the usual exaggerated stories.

People aren't out buying guns for this crisis.

Sure there are crazy preppers.  But they already have guns and ammo.  Way more than they need because there were people that believed the fake stories that Obama would take their guns.  Years of self-created ammo shortages were caused by people stocking up, not because people were using lots of expensive ammo shooting at targets.

[DrG]

See that vertical horizontal red line - that is the surge critical care capability [US]. See how, that line is crossed under ALL of the NPI scenarios?!  That is what I want somebody to tell me that I have read wrong. Please. If I am reading it correctly AND they are right with their analysis, we have a VERY limited window to develop effective PI, period, beginning, middle and end of headline.

No, you didn't read it wrong. I think the US has few time left to act in a drastic manner, if the aim is to prevent what is happening to other countries who have acted as-needed. Aside from the medical cases and complications, the problem with this virus is:

• high infection rate and highly contagious
• long incubation period of up to 14 days

Unless a country is willing to take very drastic isolation measures before they appear to be needed, as perceived by the general population, the filling up of its medical infrastructure will be caught in speed by the virus, and you're heading straight for the wall. It's not policy or politics, it's math.

If you would able to really take a snapshot of the exact real number of people infected right now, then it's maybe x100 times the current reported number. It's just that these people currently present no symptoms at all and happily infect others. But they will in two weeks. And in two weeks, the actual number of infected individuals will again be a multiple higher than what is being measured then. This goes on until about 60-70% of everyone has been infected, and then it goes down.

And yes, I'm certainly no expert in the matter, but from what I read it seems the US is heading for the opposite, i.e. underestimating it and taking too few measures.

I get what you are saying, but keep this in mind....IF the Brit's report, with specific regard to the projections illustrated by the figure that I posted, we do, in fact, avoid a catastrophic failure of the Health Care system IF the more stringent NPI protocol is enforced AND it is enforced for an extended period of time - that is MORE than the 5 months shown on the illustration of the model. IF the NPI is released after 5 months, the re-occurrence of the infection along with the assured failure of the Health Care system is predicted to happen shortly after the NPI is withdrawn.

THAT is the most sobering aspect of the report to me. One conclusion is that the stringent NPI HAS to be in effect for more than 5 months (how long??) unless an effective PI is deployed.

Further, the suggestion [is] that the same would occur anywhere that the stringent NPI has been relaxed. So, one might wonder, has the NPI been relaxed in South Korea, for example? Get what I am saying/asking?

[Cerebus]

So, the prediction of the NOV surge, as described, is a very big issue. If you (i.e., anybody) has read the report, knows a good deal about modelling, and can comment on the confidence of that prediction, I would sure like to hear about it.

Too complex to do anything other than guess at really. Many of the figures used as assumptions in the Imperial study are provisional (moreso than in science in general, which is always to some extent provisional). I see no reason to treat the Imperial study as anything less than "the best predictions we can make at the moment". We've no better working hypothesis, and I fully expect Imperial to revise their model (or someone else to build a similar but revised model) as more data becomes available and assumptions can be refined in the light of new data.

My concerns would be elsewhere. If the Imperial study is accurate (and for argument's sake lets take it as such) I fear it is short-sighted. I say this because if we achieved the effective level of control interventions to make things start to follow the Imperial graphs (on either the green or brown traces), as the general population sees a levelling off of infection rates they will become less compliant with the control measures. So we won't be waiting around for the putative September cut off of control measures to generate those peaks in Nov-Dec, they will happen sooner as folks take a more laissez-faire attitude to the controls.

Look at the difficulties we have here, among a group mostly made up of educated scientists and engineers, at getting some people to take this seriously enough. Imagine then, the difficulty getting "Bert the builder" or "Karen the data entry clerk" to continue taking preventative measures for five months that have financial and social costs to them when in three months time "I haven't seen people dropping like flies. I reckon it's all exaggerated, I'm going back to work/down the bar/whatever".

To maintain Imperial's controls for the next five months as they envisage, is going to require a level of coercion that the west is unaccustomed to and is likely to be increasing resistant to if the apparent disease spread is temporarily halted. The public will accept restrictions if they see "the enemy at the gate", they won't be so happy to do so if the "enemy" appears to them not to be materialising even though that is part of the plan and they've been told that. It will require a massive education drive to convince the public that this is just "holding back the flood" and continued isolation and other measure are still required; and this happens at a time when public confidence in government in the West is probably at the lowest I've seen it in my lifetime.

[nctnico]

You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.

Yes, I meant vertical horizontal lin and made that correction twice. I'm not asking for an explanation of hospital bed number or surge capability. That information is available from many other sources and has been for a very long time. Nor is it particularly helpful to simply state "not sized to cope with this", because, in my opinion, it simply sounds too smug. It is the details of the *this* that are up for reasonable discussion, otherwise a simple - "we're fuxored" is sufficient and need not be embellished upon.

What is under intensive scrutiny here is the accuracy of the calculations. Take a step back. What the Brits have done here is characterized the disease with particular respect to required care by the Health Institutions. Further, the course of that load requirement has been projected under different non-pharmacological interventions (NPI).

Well, even if the numbers are off by a factor of 4 then "we're fuxored" still applies. Over here they are already moving patients to different hospitals in order to distribute the load across the country and they are building triage tents in front of some hospitals. We ain't seen nothing yet!

Also the NPIs can only last for so long otherwise the economy will collapse and probably cause more deaths due to lack of electricity, water, sanitation, etc. Imagine getting a Cholera epidemic on top.

If there is some view on having a working vaccine I'm sure it will be fast-tracked and likely administered as part of a trial. AFAIK this is often the case in cancer treatments so people get the latest & greatest medicines.

[DrG]

So, the prediction of the NOV surge, as described, is a very big issue. If you (i.e., anybody) has read the report, knows a good deal about modelling, and can comment on the confidence of that prediction, I would sure like to hear about it.

Too complex to do anything other than guess at really. Many of the figures used as assumptions in the Imperial study are provisional (moreso than in science in general, which is always to some extent provisional). I see no reason to treat the Imperial study as anything less than "the best predictions we can make at the moment". We've no better working hypothesis, and I fully expect Imperial to revise their model (or someone else to build a similar but revised model) as more data becomes available and assumptions can be refined in the light of new data.

My concerns would be elsewhere. If the Imperial study is accurate (and for argument's sake lets take it as such) I fear it is short-sighted. I say this because if we achieved the effective level of control interventions to make things start to follow the Imperial graphs (on either the green or brown traces), as the general population sees a levelling off of infection rates they will become less compliant with the control measures. So we won't be waiting around for the putative September cut off of control measures to generate those peaks in Nov-Dec, they will happen sooner as folks take a more laissez-faire attitude to the controls.

Look at the difficulties we have here, among a group mostly made up of educated scientists and engineers, at getting some people to take this seriously enough. Imagine then, the difficulty getting "Bert the builder" or "Karen the data entry clerk" to continue taking preventative measures for five months that have financial and social costs to them when in three months time "I haven't seen people dropping like flies. I reckon it's all exaggerated, I'm going back to work/down the bar/whatever".

To maintain Imperial's controls for the next five months as they envisage, is going to require a level of coercion that the west is unaccustomed to and is likely to be increasing resistant to if the apparent disease spread is temporarily halted. The public will accept restrictions if they see "the enemy at the gate", they won't be so happy to do so if the "enemy" appears to them not to be materialising even though that is part of the plan and they've been told that. It will require a massive education drive to convince the public that this is just "holding back the flood" and continued isolation and other measure are still required; and this happens at a time when public confidence in government in the West is probably at the lowest I've seen it in my lifetime.

Good, now you are seeing what I am writing about in my response to @flyte

One conclusion is that the stringent NPI has to be in effect longer than the end of Sep. In the US, we have a rather important election planned for early Nov (and starting a few weeks before with mail in ballets). IF that projection is credible, we either have to attempt a general election under strict NPI conditions (how the ef do you do that) or we have to relax/remove the strict NPI and incur the catastrophic failure of the health care system.

So, unless that modelling can be credibly criticized and replaced with more accurate modelling (that predicts something better and survives peer review scrutiny), we MUST bust ass and get a PI into the mix or figure out how to hold a general election under strict NPI.

It has a great deal to do with how the US goes forward.

[DrG]

You mean horizontal line. But, no, you haven't read it wrong. Critical Care facilities are not sized to cope with this. In the UK Critical Care beds (at 8 per 100,000 population) get overflowed in anything other than a mild flu season. I doubt the US is in any better situation despite having 14 critical care beds per 100,000.

Yes, I meant vertical horizontal lin and made that correction twice. I'm not asking for an explanation of hospital bed number or surge capability. That information is available from many other sources and has been for a very long time. Nor is it particularly helpful to simply state "not sized to cope with this", because, in my opinion, it simply sounds too smug. It is the details of the *this* that are up for reasonable discussion, otherwise a simple - "we're fuxored" is sufficient and need not be embellished upon.

What is under intensive scrutiny here is the accuracy of the calculations. Take a step back. What the Brits have done here is characterized the disease with particular respect to required care by the Health Institutions. Further, the course of that load requirement has been projected under different non-pharmacological interventions (NPI).

Well, even if the numbers are off by a factor of 4 then "we're fuxored" still applies. Over here they are already moving patients to different hospitals in order to distribute the load across the country and they are building triage tents in front of some hospitals. We ain't seen nothing yet!

Also the NPIs can only last for so long otherwise the economy will collapse and probably cause more deaths due to lack of electricity, water, sanitation, etc. Imagine getting a Cholera epidemic on top.

If there is some view on having a working vaccine I'm sure it will be fast-tracked and likely administered as part of a trial. AFAIK this is often the case in cancer treatments so people get the latest & greatest medicines.

The example of cancer treatment is, hopefully, not a good example here. In cases of the last stages of a terminal conditions, approval of unapproved medication is more likely because of compassionate use. I can't think of any compassionate use medicine that is not "self-medicating" that is approved in thousands of cases - but maybe I will not be able to say that next year.

[nctnico]

Well, one of my relatives had the choice between going for the regular and experimental cancer treatment several decades ago. That person is still walking around.

Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

[Cerebus]

The example of cancer treatment is, hopefully, not a good example here. In cases of the last stages of a terminal conditions, approval of unapproved medication is more likely because of compassionate use. I can't think of any compassionate use medicine that is not "self-medicating" that is approved in thousands of cases - but maybe I will not be able to say that next year.

Slightly different circumstances, because the in-depth protocols for drug approval weren't existing then, but consider the rapid move to clinical use of penicillin in WWII. "Antibiotics" got that as a name because the prevailing wisdom was that they were "anti - living things", not anti-bacterials as they proved to be. With that as a background there was serious opposition in some scientific quarters to even trying them.  I think that the attitude will be much as it was in wartime  -  "Needs must when the devil drives" - and accelerated testing and safety trial protocols will get put in place to allow for clinical use of a vaccine in as short a time as is reasonably possible.

There's a closer parallel with cancer drug trials than might at first appear. With a 9.3% fatality rate for 80+ year olds infected with SARS-Covid-2 there's a much wider margin of appreciation for the trade off between risks of a foreshortened life from an experimental vaccine and risks of a foreshortened life from contracting SARS-Covid-2 in that age group. It's a rather different 'near end of life' situation than cancer, but it's kind of on the same spectrum. With fully informed consent, I'm sure that there are some brighter, braver people in this age group who would volunteer for a slightly riskier than normal drug trial with sightly more than normal rewards possibly associated with it.

[Cerebus]

Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

Several pending elections in the UK have been put on hold for the duration.

As far as the US presidential elections I think the situation is a bit more problematic. There will be people who remember Trump making noises and asking questions near the beginning of his presidency about quasi-legal ways to extend his term and about circumstances where he could just declare himself to continue to be president. Any other time, with any other president, and I don't think the body politic would have any issue with the idea that postponing elections was a sensible step. With Trump and his machinations I think he's built a level of distrust that might make it difficult, maybe impossible, to postpone the US elections.

A cynic would say that if looks like he might lose he'll postpone, if looks like he might win he'll want the elections to happen on schedule^*.

^*I'd apply that cynicism to any modern politician, not just Trump.

[Stray Electron]

Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

  FWIW,  I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances.  I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.  ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.

   We do have a process for mail-in voting.  I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.

[nctnico]

Another effective method might be to post on forum a photo of the face of their hoarders with their trolley of loot.

Yes yes I got one !

Maybe sign language helps:

[nctnico]

Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

  FWIW,  I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances.  I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.

That is a problem but I think many will see it as a test of political leadership for everyone involved. It would be political suicide to hold the US government hostage over who is to be the president during a crisis this severe. In the grand scheme of things it isn't important who is president.

  ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.

   We do have a process for mail-in voting.  I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.

Actually the banking systems aren't secure at all. World wide banks get robbed from billions of euros/dollars every year due to digital fraud. To the banks this is just cost of doing business.

[whalphen]

This helps explain the actions taken by government leaders in the last few days.  Brace for impact!
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[james_s]

Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

  FWIW,  I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances.  I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.  ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.

   We do have a process for mail-in voting.  I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.

My state has done mail-in voting for years, I don't think I've been to a ballot box in a decade and I have not voted in a voting booth in at least 15 years. I forget sometimes that not all states have mail-in.

[Cerebus]

This helps explain the actions taken by government leaders in the last few days.  Brace for impact!
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

You're at least three pages behind the rest of us.

Do try to keep up! 

[VK3DRB]

Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

[DrG]

Regarding elections: I'd say it is likely that these will be postponed. Not just in the US but everywhere in the world. You can't have a change of government in a crisis this large. Even if it is possible to organise a vote then whatever candidates say or promise will be lost in the noise from the Corona virus.

  FWIW,  I seriously doubt that the election in the US will be delayed under any circumstances.  I'm sure that even in Europe you've seen the hatred and bitterness and the numerous false accusations and even an attempted impeachment that had been directed at Donald Trump and many others in his administration.  ANY attempt to delay the elections will be seen by his enemies as an attempt to seize power and there's no telling where that will lead. OTOH It's past time that the US implemented a modern secure voting system that wouldn't require everyone to show up in person. The banks and other businesses have secure online and telephone systems, it's about time that our voting system was as secure as those systems.

   We do have a process for mail-in voting.  I expect that they will resort to that system for this election but you can be sure that some group will shout and scream that mail-in voting is unaffordable and racist and that it will disenfranchise them.

It's a big unknown. I was looking around at some numbers...

California cast over 14 million votes in the last general election and about 58% were absentee ballots (mail in votes). https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/historical-absentee/

The USPS delivers ~ 187.8 million pieces of First-Class Mail per day. https://facts.usps.com/one-day/

But, as was noted by @james_s, some states do not have mail-in voting and still others don't have mail-in voting without an excuse (and there are lists of acceptable excuses).

I don't know how difficult/legal it would be to change State voting procedures in just a few months.

Five states have delayed primaries so far. In Ohio, a judge disallowed the change and the Governor went ahead and did it based on a State of Emergency declaration. Primaries are basically smaller elections that decide who is going to running in the General election. Being delayed is, of course, not being cancelled.

If we were ever to institute and enforce law prohibiting large number gathering (can you do that in a state of emergency? don't know but probably, I would think so). If so, you would be running head-to-head with free elections and that would not go over at all. So, it seems like you would have to, at least, provide mail-in voting.

It is a big time mess that could be around the corner (~7 months).

I was looking at the daily new case data for South Korea (from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/)


and thinking about how it could be used as a test for the predicted infection rates in the Brit report (the earlier posted figure), but a) there is not enough data yet and b) I don't know the status of the NPI there.

I'm sure that these types of examples will be watched carefully. I'm also confident that others are going to produce their models and we will look for agreement/departure from the Brit report predictions. In fact, since I assume that such has been going on in the US for a while, I am a little concerned that the US has not come out with anything refuting (or supporting) the report's predictions. Maybe that will be in tomorrows news.

I still like the idea of harvesting antibodies from millennials - you know, social conscience and all that 

[tautech]

Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

Oh shit !
Wishing her the best of luck and hopefully care too !

[Stray Electron]

Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it. She cannot go to hospital because the hospitals are now overwhelmed and there a serious lack of testing capability. The streets are in lock-down by law, but some people are ignoring it. The disease appears to be a lot more widespread than these figures are showing...
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I don't think we will ever know how many people got this virus. Like the 1919 flu, the final figures will be just estimates.

  Best of luck to your daughter!  Keep us posted on her condition.

   I just looked and currently France is showing 118 cases per million people. If the hospitals are overloaded now I dread to think what it could be like in a week or two.  Same for most countries.

   There are 1846 new cases in the US today. That's over 30% increase from yesterday. It looks like we're starting that upward swing.

[rgarito]

Actually the banking systems aren't secure at all. World wide banks get robbed from billions of euros/dollars every year due to digital fraud. To the banks this is just cost of doing business.

I deal with banks all the time (our products are often used to encrypt transactions).  I 10000% agree with the above statement.  If you saw what I see every day, you'd take all of your money out of the bank, cut up all of your credit cards, and put your cash in your pillow...

[Nusa]

Don't worry about US elections. They'll work themselves out. Primaries are at the state level, but in the end it's all a mechanism for the national party to pick a candidate. In the event the primaries are sufficiently disrupted, the fallback mechanism would be each party's leadership picking their candidate directly. Most likely Biden and Trump, given what's happened to date.

In the case of the President/Vice President, their current term still ends on Jan 20th, period. They only get another term if they're elected to it. It would take a constitutional amendment to change that. If for any reason the electoral process didn't happen, it would invoke a line of succession for an acting president until elections can be held. That could actually result in acting President Pelosi, believe it or not. Speaker of the House would be the top of that list. No, I don't expect those of you from elsewhere to know such details. Way too many US citizens are ignorant as well.

Now lets get back to the real subject rather than straying into what could easily become a political discussion.

[vodka]

Daughter in France now has the symptoms of the corona virus, after someone at her work got it.

Can you get her back to Australia? Even being held on an island for two weeks, having medical care is better than staying in France and waiting for it to progress.

France is all border closed, inclusive they have imposed controls to trucks , at first,the trucks had free access.

Now, i don't know like France  will keep the lockdown  in the zones "no-go".

[hamster_nz]

Wow. The German Big Brother sounds like some heavy-duty viewing - the have been 'in isolation' for six weeks.

From reading tweets about it, tonight the producers sat them down and said: "Well, um, there is a pandemic going on.... ... here are some videos from friends and family."