Covid 19 virus

[mrflibble]

The NL goes into lockdown for the next 3 weeks. This causes long lines with people who want to get some weed while they still can:

ROFL! Classic!

[rgarito]

Well, it's official.  Spring Break is DONE...

They have closed almost all of Ft Lauderdale beach (about a 5-6 mile long stretch--the main part).  The beaches have been absolutely PACKED until now.  This is where a huge portion of the 10's of thousands of spring breaker college students come over From March - the end of April.  Beach is closed till April 12.  Bars have a curfew of 10pm and must limit their capacity by 50%.  (it's about time)  THIS is gonna get interesting.

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/15/watch-live-miami-beach-fort-lauderdale-officials-discuss-spring-break-crowds-and-covid-19-outbreak/

[metrologist]

too little too late.

This video get more interesting later on...

[Cerebus]

The one thing that does puzzle me a tiny wee bit is:

If that folk remedy were to damp down the inflammatory response, if, then it would be exactly the wrong things to do. The inflammatory response is exactly evidence that your immune system is responding as it is supposed to.

This is indeed true. Unfortunately what is also true is that too much inflammation, is well, too much. I believe the phrase we're looking for here is "fatal inflammatory response". It's a common theme in entirely too many pathologies... So maybe I don't understand you correctly?  To keep it within the current context, read for example this one:

https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf

Anyways, thanks for the sanity check.

I think what you're thinking of is a "cytokine storm". Firstly, there have been no reports of this kind of event being systematically associated with SARS-Covid-2 (Covid-19) like it was with SARS-Covid (SARS) - where it was the mechanism of death for many young otherwise healthy people who contracted SARS. Secondly, by the time you have reached the point where your immune systems have overreacted so much that they are (no exaggeration) tearing your body apart in a cytokine storm you are so unwell that you'll be in ICU or on your way there. Treatment for this is rapid dosing with immunosuppressant drugs (such as large doses of systemic corticosteroids) which is a two edged sword - yes, the immunosuppression does limit the damage being caused to the body by its own immune system, but it also damps down the bodies efforts to kill the virus responsible for the problem in the first place. By the time you get to this point you are very lucky if the treatment is successful and you survive. For the treatment to succeed it must balance on the knife edge of damping response enough to minimise harm, while still permitting enough response to still fight the disease.

To be clear, all non-specific immune responses involve inflammation as part and parcel of the immune response. Anybody who has had a cut or insect bite get red and swollen has experienced this. The inflammation is one of the indications that your immune system has gone to work. It is the result of all sorts of immune cells moving to the site of 'insult', attracted there by cytokines being released at that site (cytokine - cyto = cell, kine = mover - a class of signalling hormones). Cytokine storms are where the immune signalling has gone into overdrive and the cells recruited by one kind of cytokine themselves release other cytokines and a positive feedback loop develops and the system becomes unstable. The resident denizens will recognise this as one of the body's control loops falling out of control by operating under circumstances that the control loop's 'designer's' compensation scheme didn't account for.

[edy]

Well, it's official.  Spring Break is DONE...

Just in... breaking news, unsurprisingly the rate of STD's and alcohol poisoning has dwindled while demand for online adult  and video chat sites subscriptions have skyrocketed! 

https://www.inertiatours.com/when-is-spring-break-2020/

[ebastler]

too little too late.

This video get more interesting later on...

Yes, it's a bit too late. 
That video has been posted earlier in this thread: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2962432/#msg2962432

[Nusa]

too little too late.

This video get more interesting later on...

Yes, it's a bit too late. 
That video has been posted earlier in this thread: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2962432/#msg2962432

It's also quite dated for the situation, being a month old. The same guy has a couple newer videos on the subject.

[jonovid]

anything for a good butt wipe

[vad]

just see this:

...We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well.

Nice hypothesis. Let me know when you’ll find a peer-reviewed article that starts its conclusion with the phrase “we established” instead of “we hypothesize”.

[james_s]

pure bullshit
there is no age discrimination but it is like war
when resources are limited a doctor might chose to devote them to people more likely to recover and that doesn't depend on age (a 101 old chines man fully recovered and suffered only quite mild symptoms) but on general health conditions

e.g. a 30 years old may be affected by a last stage cancer and other pathologies, while an 80 years old one may just have the virus

It's called triage and it is done any time you have more need for medical care than you have care to dispense. It's not a rare situation, difficult choices must be made, and logically it may make sense to help a younger person who potentially has decades more to live and a better chance of making a full recovery than to spend those same resources on an older person who might live a few more years at best and have less chance of recovering given the same treatment. In a world of finite resources there will always be situations like this.

[nctnico]

Sad but very true.

[Stray Electron]

Well, it's official.  Spring Break is DONE...

They have closed almost all of Ft Lauderdale beach (about a 5-6 mile long stretch--the main part).

  Did they actually close the beach or just close all of the parties and other student activities?

  A friend of mine took his family to Cocoa Beach today.  It's usually almost empty but he said that it was fairly crowded today.   

    Floridians are rediscovering those natural sources of entertainment that existed here before the big commercial Theme Parks' propaganda convinced everyone that you had to spent $500 per day to have a good time.

[SiliconWizard]

Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

[rgarito]

Well, it's official.  Spring Break is DONE...

They have closed almost all of Ft Lauderdale beach (about a 5-6 mile long stretch--the main part).

  Did they actually close the beach or just close all of the parties and other student activities?

  A friend of mine took his family to Cocoa Beach today.  It's usually almost empty but he said that it was fairly crowded today.   

    Floridians are rediscovering those natural sources of entertainment that existed here before the big commercial Theme Parks' propaganda convinced everyone that you had to spent $500 per day to have a good time.

Physically closed the beach.  Put up cones and have officers (some on horseback) patrolling and kicking people off the beaches.  I saw some pictures earlier but cant find them now.

“We cannot become a petri dish for a very dangerous virus,” Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber said Sunday during a joint news conference at Miami Beach City Hall. “Spring break is over. The party is over.”

Fort Lauderdale beach — the sandy section — will be closed from Harbor Drive north to Oakland Park Boulevard. Miami Beach will close the beach from Fifth Street to 15th Street —the uber trendy section known as South Beach. Even its public parking garages will close and an 11 p.m. curfew will be strictly enforced.

Fort Lauderdale’s rules are in effect now through April 12.

Violators can risk a $500 fine or 60 days in jail.

“We clearly want to encourage voluntary compliance, but we could arrest or issue notices to appear if necessary," Fort Lauderdale City Manager Chris Lagerbloom said.

[metrologist]

Yes, it's a bit too late. 

I knew I could count on you. 

[magic]

Leaders who are willing to accept the consequences will take action.  If the actions result in a clear success the consequences will be small and well worth it.  If the results are middling anything could happen.  And obviously if the actions don't lead to success, or even make things worse there will be severe repercussions.   

The courage and wisdom of our leaders is being tested, and in many cases there are failures in both categories.

That was tested and failed a few weeks ago, before first cases occured in Europe/America. We could have had all the same border lockdown but without internal chaos.

What's tested now is how our beloved leaders react under panic conditions
A common reaction is "nothing can be done just accept it" which of course shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.

[not1xor1]

This is indeed true. Unfortunately what is also true is that too much inflammation, is well, too much.

yes
they are successfully using Tocilizumab
BTW I see that wikipedia is up to date and even mentions usage in Italy

[not1xor1]

just see this:

...We hypothesize that SARS-CoV-2 does as well.

Nice hypothesis. Let me know when you’ll find a peer-reviewed article that starts its conclusion with the phrase “we established” instead of “we hypothesize”.

well if you do not like how science works you can always try cow urine 

[not1xor1]

Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

[SiliconWizard]

Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

[thinkfat]

Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.

[SiliconWizard]

Yeah, since big malls and amusement parks are closing, people are trying the outdoors, which is not a bad thing in itself. They'll have to try wild nature though, because typical crowded outdoors such as beaches will be temporarily banned too.

Even wild nature may be a problem soon. Does anyone know if the virus can be transmitted to any other species?

so far I read about a dog in Hong Kong that tested positive, but there is no report of pet-human transmission
BTW significant viral load was found in dogs during Ebola epidemic but they didn't find any evidence of transmission to humans

That's interesting. If an animal is infected, especially a pet (that people are very likely to get close to), how can it not happen?

It's not like the virus is automatically oozing out of every pore of the dog. If it's just in certain organs or in the blood stream, that's nothing you'd usually get in contact to. If it's in a dogs' saliva, that'd be something else.

I don't know what would differ exactly from humans as to how the virus can propagate, so I'd be interested in more details. Maybe it just doesn't infect/ and thus get through their respiratory system at all?

[Leo Bodnar]

Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

[Siwastaja]

Just a back of the fag packet scribble.
Leo

Let's go further:

Probability of infection while in the store with the virus (keeping a meter of distance, washing hands, etc., rough estimate): 10%
Probability of getting infected per store visit 4.51%
Duration of the epidemic (estimate): 8 weeks

Number of visits to the store per week (case 1): 3
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 1): 24
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 1): 1-(1-0.0451)^24 = 67%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 2, a semi-"hoarder" like me): 1
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 2): 8
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 2): 1-(1-0.0451)^8 = 31%

Number of visits to the store per week (case 3, a prepared survivalist): 0
Number of visits to the store during epidemic (case 3): 0
Probability of getting infected by shopping (case 3): 0

(Still a demonstration of bag-of-the-envelope calculation. Might be off by an order of magnitude.)

[DrG]

I don't think that this link has been posted before - sorry if it has.

2020.03.12 A Coordinated Boston Response to COVID19

https://externalmediasite.partners.org/Mediasite/Play/45a9a74f18ec45deb338e00ac4cf4e281d