Covid 19 virus

[SiliconWizard]

With covid19 there is heavy underreporting, imho.
All statistics I've seen are based on "positive tested" vs. mortality.
The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.
You have to know the number of "infected" vs. fatalities.

Yes, the CFR is not very meaningful at this point. The detected cases are still very few, and biased towards cases with already heavy symptoms, which is likely to bias the CFR at this point.
Many hospitals just don't have the means of testing more people anyway. Those are not instant tests.

[iMo]

Sure, the number of "tested" is say 10ppm of the entire population (in Europe).
From that tested is X "positive".
From that X "positive" is Y "deaths".
Doing fatality rate calculation based on X an Y is  , because "infected" is KK times more than "tested".

After the pandemic "finishes" you may do a research - you have to check the population on the covid19 antibodies - and you will get the number of "infected" Z.
Then you may do the "fatality rate" calculation based on Z and Y.

[paulca]

I wonder what effect vaping has on it.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2135271/

It mentions antimicrobial positives, but not, without access to the full article antiviral, though they do mention an influenza virus test.

[ebastler]

Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup [...]?
Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

I wonder what effect vaping has on it.

Now that we have hypothesized about potential health benefits from vaping and drinking alcohol, may I propose a review of the anti-viral effects of sex, drugs, and rock'n'roll? 

[iMo]

The number of "tested" is only a small fraction of all infected.

If there is still a great risk of hidden infected cases, Chinese government wouldn't have lifted lock down within Hubei province.

The "infected cases" are all those with mild or none symptoms, or with symptoms similar to flu treated at home with aspirin. Also people who hide the symptoms. All those "infected" will recover within a week or two without be registered by the authorities. The only sign of covid19 infection are the antibodies in their blood.
For example small children do not show symptoms even infected, experts say. With 300 million children in your country you may have 300 million "infected" and not registered in any statistics (an example only).

[DrG]

Would having a nip of grappa or whisky (both very high in ethanol content) be a good backup [...]?
Could a glass of wine after each meal sanitise the mouth, the gullet and maybe even the stomach contents?

I wonder what effect vaping has on it.

Now that we have hypothesized about potential health benefits from vaping and drinking alcohol, may I propose a review of the anti-viral effects of sex, drugs, and rock'n'roll? 

Some say it's a pandemic and some say it's the end of the world
Well if that’s true baby you might as well be my girl

I hear people talking Sayin it was made by man
I don't know what to believe but I believe you should wash your hands

Edited to add:
That rustling sound that you hear...that's Robert Johnson rolling over in his grave.

[iMo]

Chinese government has banned the sale of cold and fever relief drugs temporarily for the exact reason.
As for kids, their parents will not miss the symptoms even if they did.

Their parents may get light or none symptoms, unless they are over 60..
Here they will stay home for a week or two with aspirin and hot tea, and the whole family is off any statistics..

[Karel]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[richnormand]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
(Attachment Link)

Nice link and info. Thanks.

Here are two links that I thought would be useful a little while back:

The first one explains well the shape of the graph for China once the inflexion point is reached.
However the latest numbers for cases outside China are still exponential. Key is to detect cases that arrived from outside and isolate them before you start having local infections/propagation.

The second one puts the present situation in historical perspective.

Both video start slowly but end up conveying the message: you need to stop all unnecessary travel to isolate the virus and slow the spread between "cells" with public health measures such as basic hand washing social distancing!

[VK3DRB]

Toilet paper shelves are still bare in Melbourne. Pasta cannot be found. Rice is gone. Flour is gone. Last week there were 1,000 people lined up to go inside Costco and when it opened there was a complete and utter debacle. Scott Morrison, the Prime Minister of Australia caused this mess with his comments that everyone should stock up. The very next day the panic buying started. Morrison is out of his depth.

There is no panic buying problem in France. And yet they are in a far worse predicament than us in Australia. There is no problem in their supermarkets. There is an irony here. Australians protest over nothing and never go on strike. The government can walk all over us. Yet we are out of control with panic buying. The French protest a lot and strikes are commonplace, often holding the public to ransom. Yes they are orderly when it comes to this virus. Even the Gilet Jaune thugs are not creating anarchy at the moment.

[Tomorokoshi]

I'm not panic buying.

I'm expeditiously purchasing.

[Cerebus]

I'm not panic buying.

I'm expeditiously purchasing.

Ah, that's one of those irregular verbs isn't it:

• I expeditiously purchase
• You hoard
• He's being prosecuted for looting

[Kilrah]

Friend just sent some photos from Spain, all shelves empty.

Here while we have pretty strong measures in place (no gatherings >50 people, schools, cinemas etc closed etc) at the shop it's a day like any other.

[not1xor1]

By May the virus should be weaker, as shown in studies regarding the SARS virus,

So "should be weaker" according to studies of a different virus. You can play semantics all you like, doesn't change anything.

Sorry, but the meme that "the virus will reduce by itself in time" is just bullshit, people are just using it to justify not doing anything. The only reduction effects will be herd immunity, when sufficient people have been infected.

Doing nothing is the most stupid thing to do (that is just the strategy chosen by mr Bor-ass-hole Johnson).
Here in Italy we are following WHO recommendations, Spain is doing the same.
During the last week I got out just once with an FFP3 mask and gloves to buy food.
I even started to wear a mask (unfortunately I have just one left from the stock I bought one year ago) and gloves a few days before the government enforced the quarantine.
We'll have to wait a couple of weeks to see any result. I just hope we'll not have to face any new cases coming from UK, US or other "smart" countries.

In any case there are good chances that the virus will get both less lethal and that hot and wet weather will degrade the protein shell more quickly. That's a matter of fact, not political propaganda.
-1) less lethal because it is like evolution works: a virus strain that causes less damage to the host has more chances to spread around and in the long run prevails on the other strains.
-2) a few tests on COVID-19 survival in free air and on surfaces have already been done

[not1xor1]

[...] by May it the virus should be much weaker.

Recent studies suggest otherwise. In fact experts over here expect the climax in infections by June/July, in high summer. Hence all effort right now concentrates on slowing down the spread to a rate that can be handled by our medical system.

The consensus seems to be that the case fatality will be quite low if we manage to not overflow the intensive care capabilities. If you look at China, the high fatality numbers are dominated by Hubei province, where especially in Wuhan the intensive care capacities were overwhelmed. In the rest of China, the case fatality rate was much lower.

In Germany right now we have over 3000 reported cases and 7 deaths (0.2%) but that's overly optimistic right now, IMHO. Let's see how the numbers develop in the coming two weeks, we know that fatality trails reported by about two weeks.

I've been misunderstood. I didn't mean to understate the danger. I think the virus will not disappear, but will get less lethal with time.
So many deaths, both in China and here in Italy come from the fact that at first the virus spread unnoticed in several hospitals.
And yes, unfortunately it is still quite dangerous. Today it killed a 47 year old man with no other pathology.

And if you do not take any severe measures, there in Germany, positive cases will grow very quickly.
Even with all the measures taken here in Italy, we'll probably have to wait 1-2 weeks before seeing a decrease in the number of new cases (we have already some small improvement in the areas where it started).
At the end we'll probably have more cases and deaths than in China.
UK instead is on the road of suicide. Unless they do not change quickly they'll get one million of deaths or even more. Herd immunity... that's bullshit... that's dr Mengele stuff, unacceptable in a modern democracy.

[vad]

1) less lethal because it is like evolution works: a virus strain that causes less damage to the host has more chances to spread around and in the long run prevails on the other strains.

This theory might not be applicable to this virus. There is evidence that COVID-19 can spread asymptomatic (before the host starts showing symptoms or dies).

As for expectations that the virus will become less potent with hotter weather and higher humidity... That did not work well in tropical hot Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, in warm Hong Kong, California, or in countries of Southern Hemisphere, including Australia.

[Stray Electron]

  We went shopping here yesterday and except for hand wipes and TP we didn't have any problems getting what we wanted.  The store was busy but no worse than when all of the local university students come back from any of their breaks.  We had to stand in line for perhaps 30 seconds to get to the check out counter but that was it.

      Since the theme parks and the schools closed there are a lot of people out and about, mostly out jogging, walking their dogs, or working on projects around their houses. I just came back from going out and buying another Oxy/Acetylene torch with tanks. I'm going back to buy a MIG welder and two tanks tomorrow.  Life is good, at the moment!

[Stray Electron]

Friend just sent some photos from Spain, all shelves empty.

Here while we have pretty strong measures in place (no gatherings >50 people, schools, cinemas etc closed etc) at the shop it's a day like any other.

  We just got a message from my BIL in Barcelona, he said that yesterday that everyone was out on the streets and having a good time and everything was open but it's a different story today.  The streets are empty and almost everything is closed. They did find a couple of snack shops that are open but with no eat in. Everything is strickly take out.

[iMo]

That is a big question whether UK's approach is good or bad, however.
Europe does following - they try to slow down the rate of spreading, they do not attempt to stop the virus, as it is not possible, it seems.
By slowing down the rate they want to de-load their national health systems (to avoid the overloaded Italy scenario).

The experts know already the XX% of the population will certainly acquire the virus this year. The Chinese and other statistics show ~80% of cases are with none or mild symptoms. With sufficient treatment of the difficult cases, under "normally" working hospital care, they can master it without more fatalities than with flu. That is what UK and Germany (and others) are targeting, imho.

[not1xor1]

1) less lethal because it is like evolution works: a virus strain that causes less damage to the host has more chances to spread around and in the long run prevails on the other strains.

This theory might not be applicable to this virus. There is evidence that COVID-19 can spread asymptomatic (before the host starts showing symptoms or dies).

That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
AFAIK COVID-19 spread so much not because of the long spreading time before evident symptoms, but because many people did not have any noticeable symptoms or just thought they got ordinary flue.

As for expectations that the virus will become less potent with hotter weather and higher humidity... That did not work well in tropical hot Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, in warm Hong Kong, California, or in countries of Southern Hemisphere, including Australia.

That's because in those countries, even decades ago when I spent a few years there, air conditioned is widely spread and it offers the ideal conditions for the virus survival and spread (cold and dry air).

[not1xor1]

  We went shopping here yesterday and except for hand wipes and TP we didn't have any problems getting what we wanted.  The store was busy but no worse than when all of the local university students come back from any of their breaks.  We had to stand in line for perhaps 30 seconds to get to the check out counter but that was it.

      Since the theme parks and the schools closed there are a lot of people out and about, mostly out jogging, walking their dogs, or working on projects around their houses. I just came back from going out and buying another Oxy/Acetylene torch with tanks. I'm going back to buy a MIG welder and two tanks tomorrow.  Life is good, at the moment!

here? Where? You didn't set your country code 

[vad]

That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.

The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.

[iMo]

That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.
AFAIK COVID-19 spread so much not because of the long spreading time before evident symptoms, but because many people did not have any noticeable symptoms or just thought they got ordinary flue.

Sure. The real number of infected today is 20-100x higher than reported in TV or on the web as "confirmed positive" (155k "confirmed" as of today - that number is about those "tested positive" only, it is NOT about "really infected").
Any expert will tell you the real numbers you will get only after the pandemic finishes. The authorities will provide a world-wide population sampling (of cov19 antibodies in the blood serum) and based on that you'll get the number of "infected". My bet is the fatality ratio will be lower than with flu (FR=deaths/infected).

[not1xor1]

That's not a theory, that's how life usually works.

The keyword here is “usually”.

If the host infects other people long before the virus kills the host (and even before the host feels any symptoms, forcing him/her into isolation), then a less deadly strain will not have evolutionary advantage over the original strain.

Evolution doesn't work that way: even a bit better is enough.

And usually is not a keyword, it is just like science works, it is all a matter of probability and self-correction in a feedback loop, there is nobody suggesting any truth from some mountain-top or whispering in the ear of some self proclaimed prophet.

In any case apart from the viruses biology (some of them is even useful against antibiotic resistant bacteria) I'm in no way promoting laissez-faire.
We are dealing with the life of real people and the most sensible thing is just to follow WHO guidelines (like China, Italy, Spain), because:

-1) even if you are young and healthy and so there are little chances you'll die of covid-19, little is not zero
-2) even if you are young and healthy you could transmit the disease to other people who could die
-3) herd immunity with 60% of positive cases (the proclaimed goal of the British government) is pure bullshit and will make people die by the hundredth of thousand in UK alone (if I'm not wrong, deaths there just doubled in a single day... so according to that trend in a couple of weeks they might get there).

[vad]

That's because in those countries, even decades ago when I spent a few years there, air conditioned is widely spread and it offers the ideal conditions for the virus survival and spread (cold and dry air).

I lived in Singapore for decade. Air conditioning means 24-26C ambient temperature and 60-80% humidity in that country. It is not that you can get dry air. Still, most Singaporeans do not use air conditioning at their HDB flats, and large number of local businesses don’t use air conditioning either. In less prosperous neighboring countries that I listed, the A/C prevalence is much lower than in the rich city-state.