...
My guess is we will continue to see an improvement in other reference technology - like bandgap references - until they get good enough for secondary references. There is no incentive to even try and make better zener references.
Nope, Bandgap references will never beat Buried Zener devices regarding long term stability:
The Buried Zener structure is diffused deeply and safely below the surface and occupies a relatively big volume / area in the chip. Therefore, the diffusion and decay processes in the silicon crystal (depending basically on temperature, Arrhenius law) do not lead to such high drift rates over time, compared to the bandgap structures, latter ones being relatively small and situated vulnerable at the surface of the chip.
2nd reason: Oxygen and humidity do not deteriorate the active silicon structure of the Buried Zener Devices, because of their hermetically sealed package.
The ageing behaviour of Buried Zener devices can also not be improved significantly by a better design, because the dominating decay process in silicon follows a natural law.
Only if bandgap references are ovenized, like buried zener devices, they may reach the same low T.C.
That can not be achieved by better trimming of the bandgap refs, due to yield problems and quick worsening of trimmed T.C. over time due to above described deterioration of the chips structure.
If a compact way can be invented to cool an IC substrate down to 4 deg K, then companies like Fluke may start using Josephson Junction references instead of zener-based references. Is there a lower temperature limit for the Peltier/Seebeck effect?
Sorry, that will not happen:
JJ arrays consist of Superconductors (e.g. Niobium structures), and can definitely not be made from silicon technology.
Commercially available JJ arrays are produced by NIST, PTB and some specialized university institutes or one or two private companies only.
You definitely need liquid Helium(4) to achieve 4.2K. No cooling element can do that.
Even if you would construct a miniature Helium liquefier, you also would need a Helium dewar enclosure to set up your experiment.
It's much easier to simply rent a dewar can filled with 50l of liquid Helium and dip your experiment inside.
That all is already commercially available; complete metrology standards based on a JJ array @ 4.2K cost around 200k. (Fluke owns several of them)
Recently, physicists demonstrated, that High Tc Superconductors (from YBaCuO) can be structured to make a JJ, and to get around 10^-8 uncertainty for the 'Josephson-Volt', at ~60K (pumped liquid nitrogen). That would be much easier regarding the low temperatures, but the YBCO - JJ is still far away from being available and affordable.
Frank