Someone's always the first. Always, with 100% certainty. Hence, the quoted claim is automatically proven wrong.
I think you are just trolling, you seem to enjoy playing Devils advocate. You reasoning is non-sensical.
No, my comment was not a trolling, nor non-sensical, because it was a simple fact based on physical reality, not opinion.
The classical argument that something cannot happen because it hasn't already happened is totally nonsensical and objectively untrue. Someone is always first, by definition. (Another logical possibility is that nothing is ever happening at all. Would you sign that?)
I have hard time understanding how otherwise sensible people fall into this line of thinking again and again. It's probably an emotional phenomenon called "cynicism" taking over the brain and shutting down basic logical fact-checking. I know, I love to be cynical as well, which is exactly why I force myself out of that comfort zone, and force myself to think rationally instead. And people won't like it. They want circlejerk friends, not to be questioned.
Almost all failed business startups are about a small player thinking they can pull off something the giants can't, and failing...
Of course, and almost all fail, because the number of those who try is orders of magnitude more of those who succeed. It's called competition. And competition is harsh, and developing new things is really difficult where all the details matter. (BTW, it's not about giants that "can't", it's more often about giants that "won't". A big difference. And guess what? Inside the giants, a
lot of internal development fails. It's just hidden.)
Yet
sometimes breakthroughs happen. Maybe 0.01% of the time. Blue LEDs, for example, that enabled modern low-energy lighting, is an interesting story about a fairly small company playing on a
very limited R&D budget, basically very enterpreneur-like one man show within a small company, trying out things, hitting a gold mine and growing as a result.
Now they are a large company.
Henry Ford also built his first car at his home. He even failed once with his startup, got more backers and retried. If he had completely failed, we just wouldn't remember him. They are big now. Confirmation bias.
It's easy to shout from the bushes that "this is going to fail", because your odds of being right are so good, almost 100%. It's like placing bets that Usain Bolt's going to run a faster time than me. No shit Sherlock. You were right, congratulations
. Then in the next thread, you are again right, congratulations
. There are words to describe the process: circle jerk, or echo chamber.
But this is meaningless discussion only for your own ego, nothing else.
Actually
debunking things, OTOH, is highly respectable, because of so many con devices, often claiming to break laws of physics. In the process, you teach about physics and engineering, and learn yourself. Actual debunking is always based on technical arguments and physical facts. Otherwise, you lose your credibility (outside your small echo chamber) quickly.
Pointing out that startups almost always fail is a meaningless, trivial fact which proves absolutely nothing.
Look, every time someone claims miraculous new battery technology and it's in the media, I'm called and asked have I heard about this amazing new technology. And I reply: "Yes [regardless of whether I actually have heard about it], it's bullshit, not going to actually happen". I base my bets on the 99.99% of the cases not being quick breakthroughs, or usually being outright scams, and of course I have a 100% success rate here, it's easy, just say "no" to everything. But one day it will happen that I'm wrong for once, and I'm eagerly looking for that day.
But circlejerk is only fun for about 5 minutes without actual solid technical arguments. Then it gets boring, nasty, and smelly.