I wonder how long the current situation (virus), is going to remain for ?
I probably need to measure a 'piece of string' and multiply it by a random number, to find out.
Will we all just have to get used to it, on a very long term basis ?
Yes/maybe, see above.
That's today's big media discussion here in Australia, with headlines like "Should we eliminate the virus, or just learn to live with it?"
You can't eliminate the virus, it's going to be impossible unless you completely isolate your borders forever, and even then you still need to let trade through and other important things.
You have to get back to normal levels of travel eventually, society will demand it.
I agree.
But I think there are a number of possible developments (ironically, some of them, electronic), which may well be able to eliminate the virus.
[]-Successful virus vaccine development + ability to very large mass scale produce it, and that most of the world can afford it. Herd immunity will mop up (remove), even more of the virus as well.
[]-Have a cheap, reliable and fast/easy test, to see who has or hasn't got it. Sooner or later, the test should be developed, to be like that. E.g. Takes 2 minutes to detect, 99.9999% reliable, $0.15 per test strip, using a low cost, hand held device.
[]-Improve the contact tracing systems. Not going to eliminate the virus by itself, but can improve the situation.
[]-The virus may die out and disappear, all by itself. I think, many new virus's, do just that.
[]-Successful/reliable treatments, may be created. Which although the virus may still be around, if you can treat it, and the death rate, becomes very small. That would be a good work around as well. (Plan B).
Will the Electronics and Computing industries, stay the same, expand or decline, as a result, in the longer term ?
It's unlikely to expand, as sales are probably dropping, as people buy less and/or can't afford to buy so much, in this climate.
My sales have actually increased during the lockdown, presumably as bored people buy stuff online. But as a whole, yeah, countless companies decimated. Probably won't know the real impact for a while longer.
That doesn't surprise me. All this 'free time' and/or 'indoor time' and/or 'not going out anywhere', situation. Seems to make peoples hobby activities (which many of your sales, are related to), dramatically increase.
Suddenly the mythical, 'Month of Sundays', has magically appeared and is actively running, for months on end.
Will countries be more likely to buy electronics, made from their own local businesses, rather than from foreign countries, as a result ?
Already happening.
But in practice, I don't think there will be that much of a shift in buying practices. I think cheaper prices, are the over-riding factor here.
Depends how long this whole thing lasts at a serious enough level.
It can take years to get local manufacturing humming again after decades of destroying local industries and relying on China.
So might be easy to revert "back to normal" (i.e. everything comes from China) if this thing passes before local industries can rebuild.
But there does seem to be at least some amount of a permanent "onshoring" mentality and some anti-China rhetoric from most governments now.
I don't think it would take that long, for electronics manufacturing, to return, to the West. Especially, if there is lots of investment, and Government interest (grants, tax cuts, red-tape/rule relaxation, free loans, other help).
If/when big businesses (and small ones), think there is beginning to be a new (brought back), market. Which they think is growing, and will continue to grow in the future. They can start new electronic factories, which can roll out, Resistors, Capacitors, probably basic semiconductors, PCBs and other things.
But, big Integrated Circuit plants, take much longer, cost a huge fortune to make, and probably won't return in a big way. But, they were/are made outside of China, in lots of places (I'm not sure of the split between China and the rest of the world, as regards IC manufacturing plants) E.g. Samsung/S.Korea, already.
So, that could shift as well.