Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

[vodka]

when we either have herd immunity, be it naturally, or due to a vaccine

There is a suggestion neither will happen (at least, usefully):

immunity to covid 19 could be lost in months uk study suggests

But, so what - it'll be just like flu or a cold. Except that dying may not be the biggest problem:

as covid 19 persists around the world death is not the only outcome to fear



In a war, the most effective weapon is not the one that kills your opponents but the one that maims them and ties up your opponents resources.

Confirmed

The Hospitalet(Barcelona) rest home already accumulates 10 positives, five of them reinfected.

https://www.elnacional.cat/es/salud/residencia-hospitalet-acumula-10-positivos-cinco-reinfectados_521841_102.html

[Zero999]

when we either have herd immunity, be it naturally, or due to a vaccine

There is a suggestion neither will happen (at least, usefully):

immunity to covid 19 could be lost in months uk study suggests

But, so what - it'll be just like flu or a cold. Except that dying may not be the biggest problem:

as covid 19 persists around the world death is not the only outcome to fear

In a war, the most effective weapon is not the one that kills your opponents but the one that maims them and ties up your opponents resources.

It's true the number of antibodies fall drastically after recovery, but we don't how many antibodies are required for immunity? I'm not an immunologist, but I do believe the immune system does have some sort of memory and will produce antibodies much more quickly, if it encounters the same antigen again, so the same level of disease is unlikely next time.

Immunity will decline over time, but at the moment, it's commonly believed it will last for at least six months. I'd be very surprised if it wanes much sooner and if people who've previously had severe COVID-19 get reinfected, it's anywhere near as bad as it was the first time. Of course this is a new disease, so I could be wrong. This is a coronavirus, which is related to the common cold and there is no vaccine for that, although that could be that colds kill only kill people who are already very immunocompromised.

Confirmed

The Hospitalet(Barcelona) rest home already accumulates 10 positives, five of them reinfected.

https://www.elnacional.cat/es/salud/residencia-hospitalet-acumula-10-positivos-cinco-reinfectados_521841_102.html

I can't read Spanish.

These is the first cases of reinfection I've heard of, so I question their validity.

Are these genuine reinfections, or lingering dead virus particles which have been picked up by the test? I've heard plenty of reports of people testing positive again, after recovery, but so far, they have all turned out to be the latter.

Suppose I'm wrong and those are reinfections. What do we do then? Can we really keep social distancing forever?

[coppice]

These is the first cases of reinfection I've heard of, so I question their validity.

You obviously haven't been looking, then. You can question their validity, but there are plenty of reports. There are also reports of studies of antibody measurements after people have recovered, showing the antibodies seem to tail off quickly.

[SilverSolder]

Biology isn't my "bag"...  so, do we keep getting the common cold because we lose immunity, or is it because the common cold keeps mutating?

[james_s]

Biology isn't my "bag"...  so, do we keep getting the common cold because we lose immunity, or is it because the common cold keeps mutating?

A combination of things. There are numerous viruses that cause upper respiratory diseases collectively referred to as "the common cold".

[Zero999]

These is the first cases of reinfection I've heard of, so I question their validity.

You obviously haven't been looking, then. You can question their validity, but there are plenty of reports. There are also reports of studies of antibody measurements after people have recovered, showing the antibodies seem to tail off quickly.

1) I've read about the reports of supposed reinfections, but haven't heard of concrete cases. So far they're all just people who've falsely tested positive, as tests pick up dead virus particle. This is not new.
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/infection-control/recovered-covid-19-patients-who-retest-positive-aren-t-infectious-study-finds.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8295495/EXPLAINER-S-Korean-findings-suggest-reinfected-coronavirus-cases-false-positives.html

2) So what? Antibodies will tail off quickly, but their presence, or lack of doesn't always indicate immunity.

Someone who has previously had COVID-19 might have few antibodies, but that doesn't mean they'll catch it again of get as sick, as their immune system might still remember the antigen and produce more antibodies. On the other hand, they still might have antibodies, yet still lack immunity. It's a complex subject, which isn't fully understood.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunological_memory

[themadhippy]

nice to see the uk goverbent moving with there usual  speed,face masks in shops to  be compulsory tomorrow in 11 days time

[PlainName]

Can we really keep social distancing forever?

We might have to. The bigger question is whether we can do lockdowns again. On the news right now it's saying California has just shut down...

I think we should recognise that this is no longer about covid19, which is just a manifestation of the scare stories various people in the know have been harping on about for years. We're going to see similar again and probably worse, so maybe we should be thinking about how we're going to cope.

One problem right now is the High Street getting pruned, with shops not being allowed to open, or having distancing requirements, etc. That's clearly not sustainable, but mainly because of the way we're used to shopping. Prior to this year the shops have been struggling as people move to shopping online, and it's been on the cards that at some point bricks and mortar just won't be able to compete on price, and the majority of people will be buying online. Covid19 might just be hastening that process along rather faster than expected.

Businesses seem to have twigged that working from home is actually not a bad idea, and now the government want people back at work (so they go to the shops) there's pushback from companies that don't actually want their employees back in an office. Those shops will include cafes and the like which have only sprung up to cater for loads of people being employed in town centers - it's not like people choose to work at a place because a Costa is next door. Perhaps it would be better to just go with the flow and accept that town centers are not going to be full to overflowing, that employees are spread over the suburbs, and then when the next pandemic hits we won't have to go through the "don't go shopping" and then "please go shopping" phases again.

It seems that currently the emphasis is to get back to where we were, doing what we did, 7 months ago. Fine if this was a one-off but a bit short-sighted if it's not. So, if not actual 'social distancing', masks when out and about should become normal, probably. Even if there's no pandemic they should help with flu and colds.

[coppice]

Can we really keep social distancing forever?

If you are truly British you have always socially distanced. Why would you ever stop? Just to be difficult, in true British style?

[james_s]

If you are truly British you have always socially distanced. Why would you ever stop? Just to be difficult, in true British style?

My heritage is about 3/4 British, maybe that's why the social distancing part hasn't bothered me too much. 

[SilverSolder]

Can we really keep social distancing forever?

We might have to. The bigger question is whether we can do lockdowns again. On the news right now it's saying California has just shut down...

I think we should recognise that this is no longer about covid19, which is just a manifestation of the scare stories various people in the know have been harping on about for years. We're going to see similar again and probably worse, so maybe we should be thinking about how we're going to cope.

One problem right now is the High Street getting pruned, with shops not being allowed to open, or having distancing requirements, etc. That's clearly not sustainable, but mainly because of the way we're used to shopping. Prior to this year the shops have been struggling as people move to shopping online, and it's been on the cards that at some point bricks and mortar just won't be able to compete on price, and the majority of people will be buying online. Covid19 might just be hastening that process along rather faster than expected.

Businesses seem to have twigged that working from home is actually not a bad idea, and now the government want people back at work (so they go to the shops) there's pushback from companies that don't actually want their employees back in an office. Those shops will include cafes and the like which have only sprung up to cater for loads of people being employed in town centers - it's not like people choose to work at a place because a Costa is next door. Perhaps it would be better to just go with the flow and accept that town centers are not going to be full to overflowing, that employees are spread over the suburbs, and then when the next pandemic hits we won't have to go through the "don't go shopping" and then "please go shopping" phases again.

It seems that currently the emphasis is to get back to where we were, doing what we did, 7 months ago. Fine if this was a one-off but a bit short-sighted if it's not. So, if not actual 'social distancing', masks when out and about should become normal, probably. Even if there's no pandemic they should help with flu and colds.

That sounds right to me.  The world has moved on to a "new normal" already, the politicians just haven't caught up yet.

[maginnovision]

Los Angeles, and to some degree all of California, has just about gone back to full lockdown as of today. Having income coming from Hollywood it's pretty sad.

[Ed.Kloonk]

Can we really keep social distancing forever?

If you are truly British you have always socially distanced. Why would you ever stop? Just to be difficult, in true British style?

For all they that call me such a nihilist, I must say that one positive to take away from all this madness is that standing in a queue is better now that I'm not surrounded my mouth breathers.

[paulca]

Being brutal, just as nature is.  The No. 1 problem the planet has is too many humans.  Nature is starting to take care of that.  If there were less of us, it would be easier to deal with - less population density.

The opposition to this is that capitalism requires an expanding population so that the growth junkies in suits can keep their graphs going up even when markets are saturated.  Just breed more customers.

[nctnico]

Los Angeles, and to some degree all of California, has just about gone back to full lockdown as of today. Having income coming from Hollywood it's pretty sad.

Yeah. I'm starting to notice new episodes of TV shows getting delayed.

[Ed.Kloonk]

Being brutal, just as nature is.  The No. 1 problem the planet has is too many humans.  Nature is starting to take care of that.  If there were less of us, it would be easier to deal with - less population density.

The opposition to this is that capitalism requires an expanding population so that the growth junkies in suits can keep their graphs going up even when markets are saturated.  Just breed more customers.

For years I was saying lets put something in the water and you blokes wouldn't listen.

 

[SilverSolder]

Being brutal, just as nature is.  The No. 1 problem the planet has is too many humans.  Nature is starting to take care of that.  If there were less of us, it would be easier to deal with - less population density.

The opposition to this is that capitalism requires an expanding population so that the growth junkies in suits can keep their graphs going up even when markets are saturated.  Just breed more customers.

For years I was saying lets put something in the water and you blokes wouldn't listen.

 

I think they already did! 

[coppice]

Being brutal, just as nature is.  The No. 1 problem the planet has is too many humans.  Nature is starting to take care of that.  If there were less of us, it would be easier to deal with - less population density.

The opposition to this is that capitalism requires an expanding population so that the growth junkies in suits can keep their graphs going up even when markets are saturated.  Just breed more customers.

For years I was saying lets put something in the water and you blokes wouldn't listen.

 

They did put something in the water, just not in the public supply.  Maybe you were not specific enough.

[maginnovision]

Los Angeles, and to some degree all of California, has just about gone back to full lockdown as of today. Having income coming from Hollywood it's pretty sad.

Yeah. I'm starting to notice new episodes of TV shows getting delayed.

Yea... My wife and I may need new fast food careers. Turns out we can't survive without any income. 

[Zero999]

Can we really keep social distancing forever?

If you are truly British you have always socially distanced. Why would you ever stop? Just to be difficult, in true British style?

Tell that to those pissheads who used to go to nightclubs and pubs, spreading various diseases, back when they were properly open, with no social distancing.

Can we really keep social distancing forever?

We might have to. The bigger question is whether we can do lockdowns again. On the news right now it's saying California has just shut down...

I think we should recognise that this is no longer about covid19, which is just a manifestation of the scare stories various people in the know have been harping on about for years. We're going to see similar again and probably worse, so maybe we should be thinking about how we're going to cope.

One problem right now is the High Street getting pruned, with shops not being allowed to open, or having distancing requirements, etc. That's clearly not sustainable, but mainly because of the way we're used to shopping. Prior to this year the shops have been struggling as people move to shopping online, and it's been on the cards that at some point bricks and mortar just won't be able to compete on price, and the majority of people will be buying online. Covid19 might just be hastening that process along rather faster than expected.

Businesses seem to have twigged that working from home is actually not a bad idea, and now the government want people back at work (so they go to the shops) there's pushback from companies that don't actually want their employees back in an office. Those shops will include cafes and the like which have only sprung up to cater for loads of people being employed in town centers - it's not like people choose to work at a place because a Costa is next door. Perhaps it would be better to just go with the flow and accept that town centers are not going to be full to overflowing, that employees are spread over the suburbs, and then when the next pandemic hits we won't have to go through the "don't go shopping" and then "please go shopping" phases again.

It seems that currently the emphasis is to get back to where we were, doing what we did, 7 months ago. Fine if this was a one-off but a bit short-sighted if it's not. So, if not actual 'social distancing', masks when out and about should become normal, probably. Even if there's no pandemic they should help with flu and colds.

Well the UK government have announced to date that masks will be mandated in shops by the 24^th July.

I agree with your points about the pandemic accelerating the move to online shopping and that many will continue with working from home, even when this is over. Regardless of the pandemic, the government should be encouraging working from home, where possible, because it will reduce pollution and CO₂ emissions.

We have a housing shortage, so why not convert those empty shops to homes? Counceles are reluctant to do this because they get business rates from shops, but if they're empty, they'd be better off getting council tax from people living there, rather than nothing.

Working from home and shopping online will cost jobs in the short term, but in the long run, they'll be good for society.

[EEVblog]

We have a housing shortage, so why not convert those empty shops to homes?

Because someone owns those shops, it's commercial property, it does not belong to the government.
That's like saying my old lab that I own is currently vacant, so the government can just come and take it and give it to someone. Err, nope.

[PlainName]

I don't think he implied the government would just take them. The landlords likely wouldn't care where their rent comes from so long as it's comparable, and the reason many commercial properties aren't luxury abodes is down to zoning rules. Relax those, let the rich gits live in the city centers and that frees up affordable housing away from town.

Or probably not, but the government can induce change-of-use without actually wrenching properties from their owners.

[coppice]

I don't think he implied the government would just take them. The landlords likely wouldn't care where their rent comes from so long as it's comparable, and the reason many commercial properties aren't luxury abodes is down to zoning rules. Relax those, let the rich gits live in the city centers and that frees up affordable housing away from town.

Or probably not, but the government can induce change-of-use without actually wrenching properties from their owners.

Commercial rents are really high, so owners are not going to repurpose property as residential unless they have lost all hope of revitalising some kind of commercial use. Where owners have really lost hope for commercial use of their property it has already become residential. For example, most of the traditional corner shops, pubs and many churches in the UK are now someone's home.

[AndyC_772]

Here in the UK retail has been struggling for years now; both commercial rent and business rates (property tax) are still set at levels which reflect how profitable retail space used to be. They've not been reduced in proportion to the actual profit that a given retail site can now be expected to generate.

Unfortunately that means there are a lot of retail spaces becoming (and, crucially, remaining) vacant. The law of supply and demand might mean that commercial rent will come down in time, but that doesn't really apply to taxes.

[PlainName]

Corner shops were already residential - they are basically homes with a shop in the front room, except where they used to be like that and got refurbished as mini-supermarkets.

But for a landlord charging high-value rents, a lower rent is surely better than none. Don't forget that this is coming about because people are working from home and some companies will be offloading empty offices.

I haven't rented a commercial property, so don't know who pays what. Does the rent cover taxes (in which case it's not such a good deal for the landlord) or does the tenant pay the rates and the landlord just creams off megabucks for zero effort?