Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

[cdev]

Back in the day (60's) this was taught in school...  I still remember the food pyramid, all the different groups you should eat from to stay healthy, etc.  -  perhaps nowadays teaching this kind of stuff would offend somebody, somewhere, so they don't do it any longer?

(/Humor!)

[SilverSolder]

I am sure the universities are overjoyed because the funds they receive from foreign students, particularly Chinese students are substantial. Plus, if indeed they have reduced their numbers as much as they claim, the chances of them being sick is smaller than Europeans, South Americans or especially, Americans.

I think the chances of a random American testing positive now are likely higher now than a random Chinese, seriously. And I see photos of people behaving very foolishly so I am sure this epidemic will be with us for a long time to come.

Far more than 1000 people have died in my (small) county alone.

I live in an area that has seen a lot of COVID-19 which is now on the decline, but its only because the area is still - if no longer officially under lockdown, people are still behaving carefully, for the most part, with some exceptions. This area has such a large population, which is now reducing the new infection rate, contains so many of us that it makes the US numbers look far better than they would if you simply removed us from the statistics. And if you want by those numbers, they would be alarming.

But the rest of the US- especially considering that is warmer and transmission is lower when its warm, its scary.  I understand some states are basically just pretending its over in them when the epidemic really is just beginning for them, and without testing, they won't know it unless people have better access to tests than they do today. When the weather cools down in the fall we'll likely see the effect of that and it will be very hard to control unless they have better drugs.

Here, people are still staying in, it seems.

Roads still have far less traffic than they had in the recent past. (This area used to have a very bad traffic problem) Now its easy to get around and the restrictions are lifted. But people are not doing what they used to this time of year. they are having "staycations"

For example, most beach towns have put severe restrictions on visitors.

You can tell just from the noise level outdoors. usually there is a constant low level din from traffic and just general activity, now its very quiet and you can hear birds and other animals vocalizations, instead of a constant roar of cars and trucks on the highways.

Its anybody's guess what wil happen, it could go either way. Some other countries where they relaxed restrictions are seeing new cases and deaths rise again.

They are hoping for a vaccine and/or a treatment by the fall, I guess.  It's a gamble, but it is not impossible that it could pay off.

[coppice]

They are hoping for a vaccine and/or a treatment by the fall, I guess.  It's a gamble, but it is not impossible that it could pay off.

These are the kind of people who keep lotteries in business.

[DrG]

In the US, we are seeing some sharp rises in daily new cases in some places – sometimes the new case counts are the highest ever observed and with positivity rates well above 10%. News media selectively makes the attributions quickly or, on the other “side”, seemingly ignores it altogether.


(from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

In the US, the perceived risk is clearly delineated by political party. Republicans are far more likely to downplay the risk and to desire a speedy and complete reopening. Democrats estimate the risk as being greater, and while wanting reopening also, they want it to be slower and to be more systematic/cautious. State and Local governments also vary widely on when they “closed” and when they “reopened” and by how much.

The case fatality rate, however, continues to decline. Around the time that the US hit 100K fatalities, a study reported that 40K deaths were related to nursing homes, long term care facilities and the like. That amazed me as I knew that the elderly are the most vulnerable population, but I had not realized that institutionally, it made up 40% of the fatalities (not all elderly people are in rest homes). I think that we finally have a handle on that situation - isolation, testing and tracing - and maybe combined with some better triage and treatment protocols.

It will be morbidly interesting to see if fatality rates rise along with new cases in those areas where we are seeing them. I don't think the increase will be as proportional as earlier.

As I stated earlier, I do think that we will have a monoclonal antibody treatment by the fall (by the end of the fall). It will be effective and it will be something of a game changer particularly with respect to school openings for the new year. Within a few months of the first, there will be several more, but with some big issues surrounding costs. This, I predict, will be a big election issue as part of healthcare that people can relate to easily. Who gets them and who pays and how much?

An effective vaccine is much further down the road in my view (I hope I am wrong).

It will also be morbidly interesting to see if we observe any rollbacks in opening up. I would think that this is going to, again, fall along political lines.

As long as we keep some integrity in the data collection, I think we will be able to refine how we re-open Even in my own behavior, I am adjusting my acceptable risk and I think everybody is to some extent. I mentioned getting a haircut earlier and yesterday I went to a hardware store to get parts to fix a dripping faucet (three hours of online research and then get in and get out), I didn’t want to wait a week or two for the wrong part to arrive.

There may be more home cooking and gardening in the US than ever.

I can’t even keep up with what is happening in places like Brazil and elsewhere. It is stressful and I cope by trying to restrict my interests to more local concerns and limit the number of study reports that I read.

I also think that high unemployment and the summer weather, combined with lower likelihood of hospitalization for young adults, does a lot toward reinforcing a lot of fears that I have.

[Zero999]

Can we stop saying "boost your immune system".  It doesn't work like that.  You don't "boost" your immune system.  To do so would cause auto-immune syndromes.  What you can do is make sure you are not suppressing your immune system with poor diet, alcohol, drugs, vitamin deficiency, over weight, stress etc. etc. etc.

Thank you.  This myth simply will not die.  A "boosted" immune system is an inflammatory immune system: good in the short term for dealing with infection/injury, but causes collateral damage, and in the long term can significantly damage the circulatory system.  Thankfully, one cannot actually "boost" it, short of being exposed to lots of pathogens.   As as you alluded to, taking a supplement isn't going to improve an immune system that is hindered by poor diet, sleep etc..

This reminds me... Someone I talk to in the local swimming pool every now and then pointed me to a (what turned out to be) anti-carbohydrates video (which is utter nonsense BTW). One of the things they brought up in the video is that a shocking number of people have absolutely no clue what a healthy diet is. They showed some people who where eating food which could be best described as sweetened & salted card board. No wonder these people started to feel better when they started eating real food and not stomage filling. Another example: a while ago I read an article about a teenage boy somewhere in the UK which got permanently blind because he was only eating hamburgers. IOW: don't assume people know what they should eat to stay healthy.

Back in the day (60's) this was taught in school...  I still remember the food pyramid, all the different groups you should eat from to stay healthy, etc.  -  perhaps nowadays teaching this kind of stuff would offend somebody, somewhere, so they don't do it any longer?

The food pyramid makes sense, even though it has received some criticism in recent years especially because it contains dairy, which isn't necessary and many people believe humans didn't evolved to eat grains, which they deem to be responsible for the obesity epidemic. In reality, humans have consumed dairy and grains long before obesity became widespread.

Many people fuss a lot about diet, but the human body is very adaptable and can be fuelled by a wide range of diets. All that's needed is adequate, but not excessive energy intake, whether this is mostly from fats or carbohydrates makes little difference, enough protein and essential micronutrients. As long as you don't overdose on toxins, fat soluble vitamins or have severe imbalances in some minerals you'll be fine.

The amount of fat vs carbohydrate in the diet has historically depended on the latitude of the population, with those living nearer the pole consuming most of their energy in the form of fat, to carbohydrates in the tropics.

I agree, there's probably little benefit in taking supplements, if you already have adequate vitamin D levels, but if you're in an at risk group, then it's probably a good idea, unless you've been tested and found to not be deficient.

The problem with relying on sufficient/deficient levels is that these levels are based on average population data etc. They don't take into account any individual persons immune and other bodily systems, not that you can really determine those to any degree of correlation anyway.
And also levels change very quickly with daily changes in diet etc. Where's the data on what happens if you don't get any sun for a week and also don't happen to eat suitable foods that week, and you get whatever thing is going around. I'd be surprised is that data exists.
Taking supplements even if you have been tested as having "sufficient" levels is just cheap insurance. If you can afford it, it's a no-brainer.

I wholeheartedly agree. Even though we don't have 100% proof in the form of a double blind, randomised, placebo, controlled trial on vitamin D and COVID-19, there's no harm in taking the recommended dose and there's plenty of evidence to support it reducing the risk of severe disease.

One interesting thing about skin colour, vitamin D and latitude is how the inuits are darker skinned than Europeans, because their diet is high in vitamin D, they kept their nice golden skin colour, which no doubt protects them against sun burn, in the short summer season. I suppose Europeans also have plenty of time in the spring for us to build a protective tan for summer, whist more polar regions tend to only have a few weeks of warm enough weather for people to take enough of their clothes off to burn.
https://scienceline.org/2007/06/ask-dricoll-inuiteskimos/

Some of the pictures of their fur coats on Wikipedia look great.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inuit#/media/File:Inuit-Kleidung_1.jpg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inuit#/media/File:Inupiat_Family_from_Noatak,_Alaska,_1929,_Edward_S._Curtis_(restored).jpg

EDIT: I'm not endorsing fur. They would have used the whole of the animal, rather than just killing for furn.

Anyway back on topic: I'm still struggling a bit at work, especially keeping away from some of my colleagues who seem to have regular corona parties. The health and safety manager did send out an email remaining everyone of social distancing and that the virus has not gone away. Although in theory whole teams shouldn't need to go off to self-isolate, just because one of them has tested positive, I think in reality they will need to, due to the lack of social distancing. To be fair sometimes it's impossible to do a job, whilst maintaining an adequate distance. Masks are provided, but there's only a limited supply. On the other hand one department I know of has lots of members of staff who are very close friends and can't seem to social distance. I'd be in favour of breaking them up, whenever possible.

[nctnico]

The food pyramid makes sense, even though it has received some criticism in recent years especially because it contains dairy, which isn't necessary and many people believe humans didn't evolved to eat grains, which they deem to be responsible for the obesity epidemic. In reality, humans have consumed dairy and grains long before obesity became widespread.

Offtopic: not just that. The people against grains confuse inventing agriculture with actually eating grains which likely happened forever otherwise agriculture wouldn't have been invented.  5G loonies are nothing in comparison.

[coppice]

The food pyramid makes sense.

The key problem with the food pyramid is the name. Pyramid suggests a really large pile of food, which is exactly the interpretation the people who most need education about their diet are predisposed to see.  .

[Nusa]

As I stated earlier, I do think that we will have a monoclonal antibody treatment by the fall (by the end of the fall). It will be effective and it will be something of a game changer particularly with respect to school openings for the new year. Within a few months of the first, there will be several more, but with some big issues surrounding costs. This, I predict, will be a big election issue as part of healthcare that people can relate to easily. Who gets them and who pays and how much?

An effective vaccine is much further down the road in my view (I hope I am wrong).

It will also be morbidly interesting to see if we observe any rollbacks in opening up. I would think that this is going to, again, fall along political lines.

End of Fall (September 22 to December 21st in the USA) is too late for it to be much of a election issue. Election ends November 3rd, but many votes will get cast by mail or early voting days to weeks before that, so even the start of Fall may be too late for election purposes.

As for who should get them first if it works: First responders and healthcare workers. And if schools are opening, the teachers, unless you don't mind not having enough teachers showing up to operate schools.

[cdev]

Why, why why are we seeing that huge cluster of red in Arizona?

In the US, we are seeing some sharp rises in daily new cases in some places – sometimes the new case counts are the highest ever observed and with positivity rates well above 10%. News media selectively makes the attributions quickly or, on the other “side”, seemingly ignores it altogether.

(Attachment Link)
(from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

[james_s]

Why, why why are we seeing that huge cluster of red in Arizona?

Lots of older people who are vulnerable, lots of conservatives who think Covid is a liberal conspiracy, lots of dense retirement communities which have typically been especially hard hit in other areas. That's my speculation anyway.

[DrG]

As I stated earlier, I do think that we will have a monoclonal antibody treatment by the fall (by the end of the fall). It will be effective and it will be something of a game changer particularly with respect to school openings for the new year. Within a few months of the first, there will be several more, but with some big issues surrounding costs. This, I predict, will be a big election issue as part of healthcare that people can relate to easily. Who gets them and who pays and how much?

An effective vaccine is much further down the road in my view (I hope I am wrong).

It will also be morbidly interesting to see if we observe any rollbacks in opening up. I would think that this is going to, again, fall along political lines.

End of Fall (September 22 to December 21st in the USA) is too late for it to be much of a election issue. Election ends November 3rd, but many votes will get cast by mail or early voting days to weeks before that, so even the start of Fall may be too late for election purposes.

As for who should get them first if it works: First responders and healthcare workers. And if schools are opening, the teachers, unless you don't mind not having enough teachers showing up to operate schools.

I think that things can happen well before mail voting starts - as long as positive effects are being found, which could be as early as August.

It is a healthcare issue and what if the doses are 1K each and you need 2-3 (I am COMPLETELY guessing)?  Do only people with the $$$ get it or only people with the right healthcare, or some healthcare can get it for a $20 co-pay? I don't even want to think about prioritizing a list.

But yes, I am just guessing about these things and when they might show up and I am trying to be optimistic.

[DrG]

Why, why why are we seeing that huge cluster of red in Arizona?

Lots of older people who are vulnerable, lots of conservatives who think Covid is a liberal conspiracy, lots of dense retirement communities which have typically been especially hard hit in other areas. That's my speculation anyway.

...and things like this that get reported loudly....
Arizona Governor Won't Require Mask Use as Coronavirus Cases Spike, Says People Need to 'Learn to Live' With Virus https://www.newsweek.com/arizona-governor-wont-require-mask-use-coronavirus-cases-spike-says-people-need-learn-live-1510713

[Zero999]

Why, why why are we seeing that huge cluster of red in Arizona?

Lots of older people who are vulnerable, lots of conservatives who think Covid is a liberal conspiracy, lots of dense retirement communities which have typically been especially hard hit in other areas. That's my speculation anyway.

...and things like this that get reported loudly....
Arizona Governor Won't Require Mask Use as Coronavirus Cases Spike, Says People Need to 'Learn to Live' With Virus https://www.newsweek.com/arizona-governor-wont-require-mask-use-coronavirus-cases-spike-says-people-need-learn-live-1510713

It seems like Arizona's mistake was to simply remove the stay at home order. More successful governments have gradually eased restrictions on social distancing, replacing them with other more targetted measures such as test and trace.

Mask wearing should be part of living with the virus, limiting its spread and protecting the vulnerable.

Anyway, I heard some good news the other day. My colleague's daughter who's nearly 21, had no underlying health conditions, yet was hospitalised with severe pneumonia, due to secondary bacterial infection, as a result of a weakened immune system from COVID-19, is returning home this weekend. It was touch and go whether she'd see her 21st birthday at one stage, but fortunately she pulled through. Hopefully she'll make a full recovery, but it'll take time. She was worried about not being able to finish hew dissertation, but the university know about her illness and have given her an extension.

The young shouldn't be complacent. The case fatality rate is probably 0.1% in the 20 year old, female demographic, but that's with access to good healthcare and that percentage would still lead to a large number of excess deaths, if COVID-19 were left to run riot.

[SilverSolder]

Why, why why are we seeing that huge cluster of red in Arizona?

In the US, we are seeing some sharp rises in daily new cases in some places – sometimes the new case counts are the highest ever observed and with positivity rates well above 10%. News media selectively makes the attributions quickly or, on the other “side”, seemingly ignores it altogether.

(Attachment Link)
(from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)

It isn't often we get to see in near real time, the effects of policy decisions...

[coppice]

Why, why why are we seeing that huge cluster of red in Arizona?

Lots of older people who are vulnerable, lots of conservatives who think Covid is a liberal conspiracy, lots of dense retirement communities which have typically been especially hard hit in other areas. That's my speculation anyway.

Is it because the snow birds are migrating?

[Syntax Error]

This is what happens when you let the British public sector 'do' apps...

UK abandons coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model. Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn.

"The NHS has abandoned a near three month attempt to build a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

"NHS developers spent weeks trying to find a way of making their approach work, but it failed because once Apple phones had “gone to sleep” because they were inactive, they stopped communicating via Bluetooth."

https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues

Fail >

[tom66]

It really is an incredible failure given Google/Apple had said the NHS solution was "unworkable" 3 months ago.  Hey, perhaps listen to the experts?  Mr. Gove has told us in the past though that we are "sick of listening to the experts"...

[SilverSolder]

This is what happens when you let the British public sector 'do' apps...

UK abandons coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model. Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn.

"The NHS has abandoned a near three month attempt to build a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

"NHS developers spent weeks trying to find a way of making their approach work, but it failed because once Apple phones had “gone to sleep” because they were inactive, they stopped communicating via Bluetooth."

https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues

Fail >

Probably not the fault of NHS developers.  Apple bluetooth stuff is fairly closed and Apple engineers will always have "first dibs" at making things work, so if there is a big market for something, it won't be the third party developers that get the easiest ride. 

[coppice]

This is what happens when you let the British public sector 'do' apps...

UK abandons coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model. Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn.

"The NHS has abandoned a near three month attempt to build a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

"NHS developers spent weeks trying to find a way of making their approach work, but it failed because once Apple phones had “gone to sleep” because they were inactive, they stopped communicating via Bluetooth."

https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues

Fail >

Probably not the fault of NHS developers.  Apple bluetooth stuff is fairly closed and Apple engineers will always have "first dibs" at making things work, so if there is a big market for something, it won't be the third party developers that get the easiest ride.

They were told 3 months ago why they would fail, and they proposed no cunning plan to workaround the problem they were presented with.

[PlainName]

Mr. Gove has told us in the past though that we are "sick of listening to the experts"...

What he acutally said was:

I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.

Which is rather different to the misquote you are (hopefully) unwittingly promulgating. Given the context in which he was speaking, your version is even more adrift from reality.

He is, IMO, a shameless and disloyal toad (even for a politician) but sticking made-up stuff on him just dilutes his the real stuff.

[SilverSolder]

This is what happens when you let the British public sector 'do' apps...

UK abandons coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model. Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn.

"The NHS has abandoned a near three month attempt to build a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

"NHS developers spent weeks trying to find a way of making their approach work, but it failed because once Apple phones had “gone to sleep” because they were inactive, they stopped communicating via Bluetooth."

https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues

Fail >

Probably not the fault of NHS developers.  Apple bluetooth stuff is fairly closed and Apple engineers will always have "first dibs" at making things work, so if there is a big market for something, it won't be the third party developers that get the easiest ride.

They were told 3 months why they would fail, and they proposed no cunning plan to workaround the problem they were presented with.

Winners never quit, and Quitters never win - but if you never quit and you never win, you are an idiot!

[SilverSolder]

Mr. Gove has told us in the past though that we are "sick of listening to the experts"...

What he acutally said was:

I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.

Which is rather different to the misquote you are (hopefully) unwittingly promulgating. Given the context in which he was speaking, your version is even more adrift from reality.

He is, IMO, a shameless and disloyal toad (even for a politician) but sticking made-up stuff on him just dilutes his the real stuff.

The problem with Gove's statement is -   what is the alternative?   Non-expert, populist politicians saying that they know what is best...   and getting it consistently wrong?

[duckduck]

And now for something completely different...

Months ago I ordered a ton of stuff on AliExpress and I expected it to never show up. The shipping window (before being eligible for a refund) was closing. All of a sudden I get two items yesterday (magnifying lamp and aluminzed ESD bags) and another one (FY6900 60 MHz AWG) today. Ha! A couple of days ago I got tired of waiting so I bought a Rigol DG1022 20 MHz AWG off of eBay.

Looks like there's going to be a function generator shoot-out in the duckduck lab ;-)

My point in writing this post is to speculate about shipping from China. Maybe they are starting to catch up now, or a plane-load hit (or a boat-load?)?

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

This is what happens when you let the British public sector 'do' apps...

UK abandons coronavirus app in favour of Apple and Google model. Government will switch to contact-tracing model preferred by tech giants in latest embarrassing U-turn.

"The NHS has abandoned a near three month attempt to build a centralised coronavirus contact-tracing app and will instead switch to the model preferred by the technology firms Apple and Google."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/18/uk-poised-to-abandon-coronavirus-app-in-favour-of-apple-and-google-models

"NHS developers spent weeks trying to find a way of making their approach work, but it failed because once Apple phones had “gone to sleep” because they were inactive, they stopped communicating via Bluetooth."

https://github.com/nhsx/COVID-19-app-Android-BETA/issues

Fail >

Probably not the fault of NHS developers.  Apple bluetooth stuff is fairly closed and Apple engineers will always have "first dibs" at making things work, so if there is a big market for something, it won't be the third party developers that get the easiest ride.

They were told 3 months ago why they would fail, and they proposed no cunning plan to workaround the problem they were presented with.

Many phones purposely randomize their MAC to avoid being tracked..

[themadhippy]

The uk track n trace wasnt a failure,it made a nice wedge of cash for a few and gave them access to lots of  data they can sell off to the highest bidder.