Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

[SilverSolder]

Just a few points:

Regarding the church: perhaps it was too early to reopen, but at least the contact tracing and tescting capacity is now good enough to link the outbreak to the church. If the desease isn't too widespread, then clusters can be isolated by only locking down small towns or just closing places, where there's a high concentration of cases. If this is just an isolated outbreak, then just close the local churches, rather than all of them.

One of the myths about COVID-19 is it only affects old people and those with pre-existing health problems. Whilst it's true, the mortality rate is much higher for older people, a lot of relatively young and healthy people become very sick and will die without medical attention. At the moment one of my colleague's daughers is very ill in hospital with pnumonia due to COVID-19, at the young age of 21. The data we have gives an infection mortality rate of around 1%, but this in places with good universal heathcare such as China: without medical attention it could easilly be around five times that. Other deases don't stop because of the pandemic. If hospitals are overwhelmed, then plenty of others with easilly treatable illness will die. At the very least, it's important to keep the rate of infections below the healthcare capacity.

Yes there are people who will make more money from the pandemic, making gloves, masks, UVC lamps etc.  and there will be those who will have saved money, as they continiued to work, but not had the same opportunity to spend, since all the resturaunts and bars have been closed. Hopefully when everything finally does open back up again, those who have profited and saved will spend more, stimulating the recovery. Unfortunately since economies are linked internationally, the impact of local governments' decisions will depend on what happens to the rest of the world.

Interestinly it seems that the pandemic itself will damage the economy, possibly more than any lockdown, if nothing is done. A study into the 1918 pandemic showed that cities which reacted earlier and had longer restrictions, recovered more quickly economically, than those which did less. Yes I accept there are flaws in the study: low frequency data, the cities weren't comparable with one another and things are different now, as back then the economy was less focused on services, than it is to day, but we should always learn from history and the negative effects of the pandemic itself shouldn't be ignored.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/31/21199874/coronavirus-spanish-flu-social-distancing

It seems pretty clear that population density matters a lot -  out in the countryside, the virus has less opportunity to spread than in dense urban environments.

[splin]

Anyone know how this electrostatically applied disinfectant works?

Train firm using disinfectant which ‘will kill coronavirus for up to 30 days’

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/05/26/train-firm-using-disinfectant-which-will-kill-coronavirus-for-up-to-30-days/

How likely is it to be quickly worn off frequently handled surfaces such as grab rails etc?

If it is effective for such a long period why isn't it more widely used in hospitals,  catering kitchens etc?  Is it because there might be some health risk due to exposure to agents which are biologically active for prolonged periods?

It also talks about using anti-viral cleaning products that protect surfaces for 24 hours.  Is this the norm for typical household cleaners (until rinsed off perhaps) or are they referring to specialized long lasting products?

[Nusa]

That quote was of the title, which itself was quoting a phrase. More complete quote, from the article:

Britain’s largest rail franchise is using disinfectant which it claims will kill coronavirus on surfaces for up to 30 days.

Keywords: "claims", and especially "up to"
Which leaves a lot of wiggle room in real-world applications. If it fails after 2 days for whatever reason, they've still met their claim.

In any case, the implication is that this is something fairly new. A health-care or food setting is going to have to wait for safety certifications before using it.

[Mr. Scram]

You have to put some numbers on it. For example: the economy of Germany is expected to shrink by 6.6% in 2020. That means that 93.4% of the businesses are still running. Other countries show similar numbers and the economic contraction is on par to that of credit-crunch of 2008. All in all the impact of the Covid19 pandemic is not the economic catastrophy people think it is. A few sectors like airlines, restaurants/bars are hit hard but others can continue. Since public transport is a no-go for many there is a boom in car sales around the corner.

The economy isn't a rational state machine, though. Small things can have a huge impact, even if it's ridiculous in every way.

[PlainName]

This is why the UK coronavirus app, and similar that use a centralised database, are going to fail:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/26/chinese-city-plans-to-turn-coronavirus-app-into-permanent-health-tracker

Fact is, we don't trust out PTB. They turned RIPA from something that would only be used in direst circumstances to combat terrorists into something the local council uses to make sure parents aren't cheating in placing kids at school. And the proof this weekend that out elite government see us as expendable fallguys only reinforces that inkling that once they have a toe in the door they'll wedge it wide open.

[DrG]

That quote was of the title, which itself was quoting a phrase. More complete quote, from the article:

Britain’s largest rail franchise is using disinfectant which it claims will kill coronavirus on surfaces for up to 30 days.

Keywords: "claims", and especially "up to"
Which leaves a lot of wiggle room in real-world applications. If it fails after 2 days for whatever reason, they've still met their claim.

In any case, the implication is that this is something fairly new. A health-care or food setting is going to have to wait for safety certifications before using it.

This claim "for up to 30 days", intrigued me. Intuitively, if it is going to do that it means it has to persist in the environment for 30 days and at an effective concentration.

The GTA quote has been carried by a number of news outlets and, as many have noticed, there is precious little about what the product is. I found one article that added, "...that sticks to surfaces..."  https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-05-26/new-viruscide-being-used-by-govia-thameslink-to-kill-coronavirus-on-surfaces/ . OK, I am starting to get an idea of how this could work - imagine some chewing gum under the the table that had a whole lot of virucide in it that that does not evaporate readily - is it something like that?

Then I read this article https://www.fox13news.com/news/cleaning-product-continues-killing-novel-coronavirus-30-days-after-application-company-claims - not about the GTA but a US Port (Tampa, Florida..cruise ships, that kind of thing)..... and they showed a bottle of the stuff and the name is in thee article, along with the 30-day claim...mPale aha, getting closer.

So I go to the product site http://www.mpactusa.com/ and I see this message:

Due to significant increased web traffic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and residual web searches for our mPact™ Antimicrobial System, we have disabled our website temporarily. Please contact our headquarters for further inquiries regarding mPerial™ + mPale™ products.

ok, ok, settle down, let's not assume quackery, if it is a commercial product in the US, we should be able to find it with (or without) certifications and with an associated MSDS.

AT this point, I don't know where the 30-day claim appears or what evidence is cited if it does appear.

Here is an MSDS for the product http://www.cms-clean.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/mPale-MSDS-Sheets.pdf
Here is a labeling revision for the EPA (from last year) https://www3.epa.gov/pesticides/chem_search/ppls/083129-00001-20190312.pdf

The label does clearly tout durability but I still don't see a written 30-day claim. Note, however, that in the video, someone is identified, by name, as being from the company.

Adding the name to the search, I find another article https://www.tampabay.com/news/business/2020/03/10/kill-coronavirus-with-microscopic-spikes-port-tampa-bay-says-yes/ where the mode of action is described:

When mPact’s antimicrobial treatment, known as mPale, is applied to a disinfected surface and is allowed to dry, the company says, it leaves a thin film of molecules that have a unique spiked structure and a positive electrical charge. Those microscopic spikes do two things, mPact says.

First, they bond with virtually any surface, though they are much too small to be seen or felt by human touch. Second, they attract bacteria, viruses, mold and fungi, which carry an opposite negative charge, into physical contact. On contact, the spikes punch through the cell walls of the microbes.

“It punctures the membrane," Evans said. "It does not allow it to attach to a host. It does not allow it to propagate. It’s thinking about disinfection in a different way.”


Then, I see it!

“It’s absolutely safe,” Evans said. “It stays on for 30 days at the nano level. You can’t see it. You can’t feel it. It’s not something you can touch, but it continues to kill for 30 days. ... It’s a very effective disinfectant."

...and also...

Three weeks ago, mPact sent its product to a German lab, which Evans said determined that it’s effective in eliminating 99.99 percent of the new coronavirus, known as COVID-19, which is short for “coronavirus disease 2019.”

So, I guess some data does exists for the claim, but I am reserving comment until I can see those data (i.e., somebody who knows more than me evaluates those data).

The article also notes that the product is not on the EPA list of "Coronavirus" killers, to which the response was:

The company’s products are not on a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency list of antimicrobial products for use against the new coronavirus, but Evans said the company was on a call Monday with the U.S. Commerce Department, which he said was interested in getting the company in touch with a coronavirus task force that includes EPA officials.


OK, that exceeds my interest in the matter and I apologize if I got something wrong.

[splin]

On contact, the spikes punch through the cell walls of the microbes.

I guess you wouldn't want to breathe in too much of it then. I guess it must be pretty safe given that apparently it was used at the temporary Nightingale hospital in London.

There is at least one other contender however which can last even longer:

[urlhttps://www.extremetech.com/extreme/309865-new-disinfectant-can-kill-coronavirus-on-surfaces-for-90-days][/url]

MAP-1 is a spray that coats and evaporates on surfaces, but it’s much more advanced than bleach or alcohol. The spray carries millions of polymer nanocapsules that adhere to surfaces and remain there after the carrier liquid has dried. These non-toxic capsules contain a disinfectant that remains in suspension until touched. The heat from a hand or moisture activates the capsules, releasing disinfectant onto the surface.

They claim you'll be able buy it yourself soon; I wonder how long it takes to get approval for such novel new anti-bacterial/virus products and how rigorous the process is? Anything dangerous to bacteria and virus particles probably isn't good for human cells either.

Germagic will begin selling MAP-1 directly to consumers in 50-200ml bottles soon. The company says those will cost between $9 and $32.

[Buriedcode]

OK, that exceeds my interest in the matter and I apologize if I got something wrong.

It's good that someone has the stamina to do this - most can't be bothered to follow it that far (including myself for most things).  It is the reason marketing claims for products (especially in health) often run-away unchecked, because few can really go down the rabbithole, and those that do aren't always listened to.  Your time and effort is appreciated 

[SilverSolder]

[...] So I go to the product site http://www.mpactusa.com/ and I see this message:

Due to significant increased web traffic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and residual web searches for our mPact™ Antimicrobial System, we have disabled our website temporarily. Please contact our headquarters for further inquiries regarding mPerial™ + mPale™ products.
[...]

You can run, but you can't hide...

https://web.archive.org/web/20190812125109/http://www.mpactusa.com/

[james_s]

The act of coming together in communion is deeply ingrained in all religion. It's an act of reassurance, beneficial for the community on a social level. It is comforting for people especially in a crisis, to be with other people who share the same value system. Unfortunately, many don't realize that the threat is quite real and that our understanding of dangerous behavior is limited. It appears now that being in the same room and singing loudly transmits the virus quite efficiently, even if you keep a 1.5m distance and wash your hands. Astonishing is the rate of spread, though. The transmission chains are not completely understood yet (this will be excellent study material), but it appears that a single spreader sparked this whole cluster.

I can absolutely understand the desire to get together with a group of people one is accustomed to getting together with, I mean even as an introvert I'd like to go out to a pub and meet up with some friends for a beer. I don't see it as an essential activity though, I'm flexible and adaptable, I can find other ways to maintain social connections during a period of inconvenience that while much longer than I had anticipated, is still a temporary situation.

I think the people who expect to see bodies stacking up in the streets are the same people who lap up conspiracy theories when they don't see recognizable remains of an airplane that has slammed directly into something at 400mph having seen pictures of other crashes that could be described as very hard landings. They don't understand math, and cannot make the connection between the numbers and the physical world. There are a bit under 20,000 cities/towns/villages in the USA, for 100,000 deaths that's an average of only 5 per town, even if a million die, I suspect that most of us will not personally know one of them closely.

[paulca]

On the economy, at least in the UK with the current government, the losses and risks will be nationalised in bailouts, austerity and taxes while the profits gained switching the economy back on will be privatised and quickly off-shored to tax havens.

You gotta keep the rich rich so they can filter away their cash and not have to do "trickle down economics" at all.

Read recently, no evidence that the billionaires of the USA have already netted a 450 billion profit since the pandemic started.  That's more than $1000 per head of US population.

Again, gotta keep the rich, rich and the plebs knowing their place.

[SilverSolder]

On the economy, at least in the UK with the current government, the losses and risks will be nationalised in bailouts, austerity and taxes while the profits gained switching the economy back on will be privatised and quickly off-shored to tax havens.

You gotta keep the rich rich so they can filter away their cash and not have to do "trickle down economics" at all.

Read recently, no evidence that the billionaires of the USA have already netted a 450 billion profit since the pandemic started.  That's more than $1000 per head of US population.

Again, gotta keep the rich, rich and the plebs knowing their place.

Not really news, right? - sadly.   The good news is that the poor today are generally much richer than the poor of yesteryear...

[Zero999]

It seems pretty clear that population density matters a lot -  out in the countryside, the virus has less opportunity to spread than in dense urban environments.

Population density probably makes a difference, but I think how close knit the community is matters too. If most people in a village know one another and regularly meet in one place such as a pub or church, then it guarantees spread. On the other hand, in a more densely populated commuter town few people may even know their neighbours and if they mostly drive to work in the neighbouring large town, rather than use public transport there might be less spread. I think culture and lifestyle matter as well as population density.

[nctnico]

It seems pretty clear that population density matters a lot -  out in the countryside, the virus has less opportunity to spread than in dense urban environments.

Population density probably makes a difference, but I think how close knit the community is matters too. If most people in a village know one another and regularly meet in one place such as a pub or church, then it guarantees spread. On the other hand, in a more densely populated commuter town few people may even know their neighbours and if they mostly drive to work in the neighbouring large town, rather than use public transport there might be less spread. I think culture and lifestyle matter as well as population density.

The progress of Covid19 in the Netherlands seems to underline that. Less densily populated areas with a lot of church visitors and close communities got hit relatively hard. Now Covid19 is on the rise in the bigger cities.

[cdev]

A Columbian firm have developed a cardboard based hospital bed that doubles as a coffin.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/colombia-coronavirus-cardboard-hospital-beds-coffins

Here in the US the virus is just starting to hit many parts of the country, while places like where I live new cases are now declining a lot, making the overall trend for the US deceptive because in many areas the deaths are rising, in some of them substantially, but here they are falling so much it makes it look like the country has stabilized - which isnt true if you start looking at states and county level.

This is only because people have been staying indoors a lot. Its still very quiet here, with people not going to church or bars etc. Small groups I think are allowed to meet now but I dont think many are.

However, these seems to be some kind of group that drives around in their cars  all at once, maybe a couple of dozen of them - they all have SUVs and pickup trucks. -lots and lots of people honking their horns. Its probably good for their sanity, people do have to get out and do something social, even if they remain in cars.

I dont think we are at the Mad Max stage just yet.

[james_s]

However, these seems to be some kind of group that drives around in their cars  all at once, maybe a couple of dozen of them - they all have SUVs and pickup trucks. -lots and lots of people honking their horns. Its probably good for their sanity, people do have to get out and do something social, even if they remain in cars.

That sure wouldn't be good for my sanity as a bystander. There are few things I find more annoying than blaring car horns, I think it ought to be illegal to sound one outside of an emergency or a situation where you need to get someone's attention. Thankfully they're rarely used around here but in some parts of the country people seem to honk constantly, it's crazy.

[GlennSprigg]

I find it appalling that their are, (was expected though!), both Religious factions, as well as 'Rights'
activists ETC!, that still talk about their 'Rights', for what ever reason/law, to do what they 'want'
without prejudice or judgement, but they are still SOOOO missing the point !!
Without having to revert to 'Martial Law' etc, do these 'people' think that global authorities are
dictating what they are, because of new laws/thoughts etc about 'Religious' people ?
NO!!!  It is an across the board regulation for the benefit/safety of EVERYONE !!!  , NOW !!!

COMPLACENCY has always been the biggest killer of/in humanity. Time will tell..

[Zero999]

Lots of governments have being lifting their lockdowns over the last month, or have plans to do so in June. Obviously this will result in more cases of COVID-19. Hopefully other measures such as contact tracing and testing will be able to control the spread, without having massive lockdowns.

I've felt quite anxious shortly after returning to work. I was off from mid-March, to late-April. At first I was happy to return to work, but then I gradually became more anxious, especially as some of my colleagues struggle with social distancing. I'm not too worried about getting it myself, although I am aware that I could get very ill and potentially die from it, but my parents are in their 70s and have underlying health conditions, making them vulnerable. I've struggled a bit to deal with my emotions, especially at work. I've found myself losing my temper, being snappy and a couple of weeks ago, I was in tears at my desk, when I thought about my parents dying. I know others where I work are much worse off: as I mentioned before someone's daughter is in a coma, with pneumonia, due to complications from COVID-19, but I seem to be more emotionally unstable. Fortunately I'm able to talk about how I feel, which is the only thing stopping me losing it altogether.

Is anyone else here struggling with this? It turns out there's a name for this: post lockdown anxiety. I suppose this makes sense: we were told to stay in, because there's a dangerous virus circulating and now we're supposed to go out, even though the virus is still out there. I just cling on to the hope the contact tracing will work and I know the NHS will be able to cope.

Is anyone else finding it hard to return to work?

[nctnico]

Lots of governments have being lifting their lockdowns over the last month, or have plans to do so in June. Obviously this will result in more cases of COVID-19. Hopefully other measures such as contact tracing and testing will be able to control the spread, without having massive lockdowns.

Over here they start mass testing from today. So those still watching the numbers will likely see a huge peak in the infection numbers for the NL in a couple of days.

I've felt quite anxious shortly after returning to work. I was off from mid-March, to late-April. At first I was happy to return to work, but then I gradually became more anxious, especially as some of my colleagues struggle with social distancing. I'm not too worried about getting it myself, although I am aware that I could get very ill and potentially die from it, but my parents are in their 70s and have underlying health conditions, making them vulnerable.

Same here. What is frustrating to me is the sense you have little control over the situation. The only thing you can do is keep yourself and other family members away.

Is anyone else finding it hard to return to work?

Normally I'd go to a customer 2 days a week. I have cut that back to 1 day. On one hand it is nice to go back to a 'normal' rythm and it is also necessary to discuss with people face to face but it still is a risk. Normally I'd use public transport to get there but due to the risk of infection in public transport and the lack of parking spaces (this customer is located at the worst place to go by car) the only real alternative is to go by bicycle. Unfortunately some people working at that customer have no alternative for public transport because compared to me they live even further away.

[Muttley Snickers]

This program was just on television down here and I thought it might be of interest to others. A credit to the ABC and Australian Story.

[SilverSolder]

[...]

...the only real alternative is to go by bicycle. Unfortunately some people working at that customer have no alternative for public transport because compared to me they live even further away.

Is it an option to throw a bike in the back of the car, and park a 'bicycleable' distance away?

[nctnico]

[...]

...the only real alternative is to go by bicycle. Unfortunately some people working at that customer have no alternative for public transport because compared to me they live even further away.

Is it an option to throw a bike in the back of the car, and park a 'bicycleable' distance away?

Yes and no. It still means cycling 5km to 10km from a free parking zone into the business park. Likely more people will have this idea and consume the available parking space quickly. But still people will need to own a car and some don't (some can't even park a car where they live).

[SilverSolder]

[...]

...the only real alternative is to go by bicycle. Unfortunately some people working at that customer have no alternative for public transport because compared to me they live even further away.

Is it an option to throw a bike in the back of the car, and park a 'bicycleable' distance away?

Yes and no. It still means cycling 5km to 10km from a free parking zone into the business park. Likely more people will have this idea and consume the available parking space quickly. But still people will need to own a car and some don't (some can't even park a car where they live).

5-10km is really not that bad?  Several people in my family think nothing of cycling 50Km - 100Km a day!    Personally, I'd reach for a motorcycle, e-bike, or moped long before those kinds of numbers came on my bicycling radar...

[james_s]

Is anyone else here struggling with this? It turns out there's a name for this: post lockdown anxiety. I suppose this makes sense: we were told to stay in, because there's a dangerous virus circulating and now we're supposed to go out, even though the virus is still out there. I just cling on to the hope the contact tracing will work and I know the NHS will be able to cope.

Is anyone else finding it hard to return to work?

I'm planning to work from home indefinitely, especially now since there are riots going on all over, those worry me a lot more than Covid ever did and I suspect will directly result in a lot of new infections. Otherwise no, I haven't really been worried at all, the uncertainty and economic impacts are a big concern but staying home all the time just kind of feels normal to me now and I've saved a ton of money between transportation and not eating out. I haven't put gas in my car in months and I haven't eaten from a restaurant since mid March. I actually looked at my bank account last night and thought "wow, where did all this money come from?" Even being fiscally conservative in general I hadn't realized how much I was spending on lunch and commuting.

[SilverSolder]

We are driving so little now,  that I have had to dig out the battery charger to deal with the fact that the batteries slowly run down from just sitting there!