That's called a "Herald wave" when you have a small epidemic one year and then most of the mortality hits the next. I don't think that anybody knows what is likely to happen. Some people with the novel coronavirus also get sick again. There is no proof that getting it once conveys permanent immunity, some viruses just stick with you and come out when your immune system is weakened. Hopefully by next year they will know more.
All the kids around here are out of school, and you cant stop kids from playing.
So the kids are out and about somewhat, although its muted. There is also this custom around here in sururbia of parents driving their kids is caravans together for kids birthday parties, in separate cars, every few days there will be one, they all honk their horns like a wedding. That way they dont feel imprisoned. I can understand that. People are managing the best they can, going to the grocery the bare minimum number of times, etc. .
I'm glad that I don't have kids, If I did, I'd be concerned about them missing so much school.
The area where I live is in the midst of it now and lots of people are dying. Medical staff are burning out. But still acting very professionally. We need a cure that works, badly.
They did close down a lot during the 1917-1919 flu pandemic.
I did some reading into these pandemics. It seems these where multi-year events and it is not like people wheren't travelling at all back then. My parents have not mentioned these pandemics so far because appearantly no drastic measures where taken. If you look at the mortality rate of the Covid-19 virus which seems to be around the 0.5% to 1% we could be looking at 10 million to 100 million dead world wide. Remember most parts of the world are just 2 months in.
I have a good question, What are the best home internet setups for good computer security and low latency?