Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

[PlainName]

so I'm not too sure how that would be workable in practice.

Planes often have rows of three, so it will mean the middle seat is empty, thus reducing by only a third. It would only reduce by a half when there are an even number of seats per row.

[james_s]

they most be getting those 747 very cheap from all the airlines that are retiring them, they are not as fuel efficient as more modern planes and maintaining four engines instead of two is expensive

They sure are nice to fly on though, and significantly faster than the large twins that are taking over those routes. I'll be really sad to see the 747s go.

[SiliconWizard]

so I'm not too sure how that would be workable in practice.

Planes often have rows of three, so it will mean the middle seat is empty, thus reducing by only a third. It would only reduce by a half when there are an even number of seats per row.

In  this case, people are not grouped, and the whole point about groups not being workable is valid. You'd never have 2 people next to one another, even if they are of the same group, if you leave the middle seat empty. That was my whole point - considering groups would be a headache, and not really workable. But if you allow "groups" to use the 3 seats, and otherwise leave middle seats empty, that becomes a headache for balancing the planes, which was my point. So, that was for the group thing.

Now regarding the fill ratio, true that wouldn't be -50%. That would be typically -30% if you leave all middle seats empty. Still a significant hit.

[thinkfat]

Leaving just the middle seat empty will not give you the necessary separation. Especially not with air nozzles blowing down from the ceiling and distributing the virus aerosole in the entire cabin.

[SiliconWizard]

Leaving just the middle seat empty will not give you the necessary separation. Especially not with air nozzles blowing down from the ceiling and distributing the virus aerosole in the entire cabin.

Fair point, air nozzles would be a problem. Airlines could decide to disable all air nozzles temporarily though. (I suppose you're talking about the individual air nozzles above each seat?)

[thinkfat]

Leaving just the middle seat empty will not give you the necessary separation. Especially not with air nozzles blowing down from the ceiling and distributing the virus aerosole in the entire cabin.

Fair point, air nozzles would be a problem. Airlines could decide to disable all air nozzles temporarily though. (I suppose you're talking about the individual air nozzles above each seat?)

Yes, shutting off the air nozzles might be doable. But IMHO, the whole design of ventilating airplane cabins needs overhauling. Creating a controlled draft that moves air upwards or downwards only, not sideways, would certainly be helpful.

[langwadt]

they most be getting those 747 very cheap from all the airlines that are retiring them, they are not as fuel efficient as more modern planes and maintaining four engines instead of two is expensive

They sure are nice to fly on though, and significantly faster than the large twins that are taking over those routes. I'll be really sad to see the 747s go.

afaict the 747 is only slightly faster than the modern twins, isn't it just the airlines just flying slower to save fuel?

[coppice]

they most be getting those 747 very cheap from all the airlines that are retiring them, they are not as fuel efficient as more modern planes and maintaining four engines instead of two is expensive

They sure are nice to fly on though, and significantly faster than the large twins that are taking over those routes. I'll be really sad to see the 747s go.

afaict the 747 is only slightly faster than the modern twins, isn't it just the airlines just flying slower to save fuel?

Wikipedia says:

• 747-400: Mach 0.855
• 777: Mach 0.84
• 787: Mach 0.85

Their maximum speeds vary a bit more, but these cruise speeds are very close. I think the idea that speeds are dropping may come from the extremely long routes operated with 777s and A350s, where they need to optimise for consumption to get the range they need on a 20 hour flight. Boeing abandoned plans for a faster aircraft, because of weak response from the airline industry. There isn't that much point in higher speeds when so many hours are consumed by the journey on the ground at each end.

[james_s]

My recollection was that the 747 was about 50mph faster than most of the twins, a few years ago my friend was on a 747 going from England to the US and the captain mentioned at one point that they were overtaking the 777 that took off some time before from the same airport. I don't actually know the reasons, just that the 747 is typically flown a bit faster.

[nctnico]

I'll buy some airline stock if it drops down low enough, I've been eyeing Boeing stock too. I'm in for the long haul and I know it'll come back up eventually.

Most stock is good to buy nowadays; now is a good time to put money into an investment fund. I just added some money to my (investment fund based) retirement plan.

[bd139]

I work indirectly for a fund. Spot on. It's utterly fucked now and it will go up. I actually pulled my cash out Q3 last year and blew it on the remains of my mortgage so I am utterly pissing myself with joy at the moment .

[langwadt]

My recollection was that the 747 was about 50mph faster than most of the twins, a few years ago my friend was on a 747 going from England to the US and the captain mentioned at one point that they were overtaking the 777 that took off some time before from the same airport. I don't actually know the reasons, just that the 747 is typically flown a bit faster.

the rated cruise speeds is 933km/h vs. 903km/h  so while it is faster it's not going to make much of a difference even
on a 12 hour flight

[Electro Detective]

I work indirectly for a fund. Spot on. It's utterly fucked now and it will go up.
I actually pulled my cash out Q3 last year and blew it on the remains of my mortgage so I am utterly pissing myself with joy at the moment .

    Staying one step ahead or behind (? ) powder indulging economic optimists

and tossing one's potential swindle candidate funds towards a payed off solid roof over your head till this panic fest blows over in.. 2022?    

rates high on the list of best options during this custom engineered public 'DIY chaos 'n quarantine' 

fwiw I reckon 'Chaos n Quarantine' would be an awesome name for an R n B band    
you heard it here first folks 
   

BOT: the real fun is coming soon when some news media showcased/featured 'expert' clown/s will predict, forecast, trend, or bring up similar circumstances in past swindles 'downturns'

and the 'better off' middle classes will panic and do a RUN on the banks, supers, air shares, dump stock and assets etc as they do when their cigars fizzle out, 

and shaft us all into yet another Depression oblivion for years

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[bd139]

It was obvious our disaster capitalists were up to something based on some stock tanking and our eminent exit from the EU so I figured being the rat I am I’d jump off the sinking ship ASAP. Didn’t bet on the rest. That was just luck, from my perspective anyway.

The issue is going to be when the death count flat lines. I’m not sure there is enough data yet to determine causality between that and either (a) the thing has burned out and (b) lockdown actually worked.
That’s a catch-22 that our political elite has managed to talk itself into a corner on with lies and promises.

The shit show hasn’t actually begun yet. Watch the slow unwinding and marketing. Will see what we have lost an about 5 years I reckon. Keeping on topic I suggest a lot of us will never return to an office and a lot of us will never return to work. So that’s a whole new problem to deal with which isn’t going to fit into neoliberal ideology.

The take home for me from all this is stay healthy and assume that there is no safety net. 

[thinkfat]

The issue is going to be when the death count flat lines. I’m not sure there is enough data yet to determine causality between that and either (a) the thing has burned out and (b) lockdown actually worked.
That’s a catch-22 that our political elite has managed to talk itself into a corner on with lies and promises.

You won't know until mass testing for immune globuline reveals the true spread and whether it was enough to build any kind of herd immunity. But when I look at the current mortality figures especially for England, boy, that's not looking good. Something has started eating into the 15-64 year age bracket worse than any influenza in the past years. I hope it's the lockdown working when the curve flattens.

[Electro Detective]

It was obvious our disaster capitalists were up to something based on some stock tanking and our eminent exit from the EU so I figured being the rat I am I’d jump off the sinking ship ASAP. Didn’t bet on the rest. That was just luck, from my perspective anyway.

The issue is going to be when the death count flat lines. I’m not sure there is enough data yet to determine causality between that and either (a) the thing has burned out and (b) lockdown actually worked.
That’s a catch-22 that our political elite has managed to talk itself into a corner on with lies and promises.

The shit show hasn’t actually begun yet. Watch the slow unwinding and marketing. Will see what we have lost an about 5 years I reckon.
Keeping on topic I suggest a lot of us will never return to an office and a lot of us will never return to work.
So that’s a whole new problem to deal with which isn’t going to fit into neoliberal ideology.

The take home for me from all this is stay healthy and assume that there is no safety net.

That's a good 'safety' gig mate 


The lower level pooliticals aka 'in public view cannon fodder', are shafted either way, they let it play out way too long. 

so whether they pull the plug now (YES PLEASE ffs)

or keep rolling with it because their mates in businesses and govs that have invested or stupidly borrowed big, to quickly catch the wave to play the crisis supply game,

will be caught with their pants down with no more crisis supply demand, and looking for poolitical heads to roll

or something like that..


i.e. it's coming and won't be pretty for them, or us

btw do these polyticks clowns even wear masks, scrub their hands, one seat space gaps in limos,
and practice Safe Social Distancing at the Lodge bar? 

[EEVblog]

They sure are nice to fly on though, and significantly faster than the large twins that are taking over those routes. I'll be really sad to see the 747s go.

Got to fly one for the last time late last year on a return flight from Melbourne. Flights into Sydney were being cancelled because of high wind, so we were delayed most of the day. In the end the airline said "bugger this, bring in a 747" and they allowed that to fly in. They actually publicly announced that as the reason they switched planes.

[paulca]

My recollection was that the 747 was about 50mph faster than most of the twins, a few years ago my friend was on a 747 going from England to the US and the captain mentioned at one point that they were overtaking the 777 that took off some time before from the same airport. I don't actually know the reasons, just that the 747 is typically flown a bit faster.

They use a metric called "Cost Index" on the flight management computer to control the speed or rather power settings for different phases.  They also have de-rates for takeoff and climb power.  For take off this is about using the maximum power required to be able to reject a take off and stop on the runway, but still make it safely into the air.  These are more about saving the engines which suffer more wear at higher EPR and RPM settings.

Cost Index is a 0-1.0 co-efficient between the cost of operating the aircraft per hour and the cost of fuel per hour.  If fuel is very expensive on a route, they might fly with it closer to 0.0.  If time is more expensive they might fly with it set to 1.0.

Due to the jet stream on atlantic crossings they typlically use 1.0 while heading west into the wind and 0.0 when heading east with the wind.

Even at that the difference in speed between 0.0 and 1.0 at cruise is not that much.  There is not much speed available to play with.  In cruise config a 747 might have a minimum safe cruise speed of 250knots IAS but at 38,000ft their "Mach limit of 0.86" is only something like 290kts IAS (excuse me not looking it up).

[bd139]

The issue is going to be when the death count flat lines. I’m not sure there is enough data yet to determine causality between that and either (a) the thing has burned out and (b) lockdown actually worked.
That’s a catch-22 that our political elite has managed to talk itself into a corner on with lies and promises.

You won't know until mass testing for immune globuline reveals the true spread and whether it was enough to build any kind of herd immunity. But when I look at the current mortality figures especially for England, boy, that's not looking good. Something has started eating into the 15-64 year age bracket worse than any influenza in the past years. I hope it's the lockdown working when the curve flattens.

It's mostly because we're in a right state. Smoking, drinking, rampant obesity, poverty and 40 years of marketing sedentary activities and shite food. Nothing to do with the healthcare or the government response. I suspect austerity and crack smoking mismanagement of our two main parties over the last 40 years does have a chunk of responsibility.

And yes the testing will be interesting but AFAIK it doesn't exist with the sensitivity, reproducibility or reliability yet to be viable despite the marketing to the contrary.

[tom66]

It won't be <50%. Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc. So if you have a row of 4 seats and 3 people they might leave the 4th one free etc.

Something like 80% of air fights are taken by 20% of passengers: business travelers, primarily.  This will be a huge problem for airlines, as you suggest they might offer incentives if you can book seats in a family grouping but I'd still expect 50% of the aircraft to be empty and many fewer flights.

We really don't know how long this situation could last, and I fully expect to see several major, big name airlines go bust over it.

[bd139]

It was obvious our disaster capitalists were up to something based on some stock tanking and our eminent exit from the EU so I figured being the rat I am I’d jump off the sinking ship ASAP. Didn’t bet on the rest. That was just luck, from my perspective anyway.

The issue is going to be when the death count flat lines. I’m not sure there is enough data yet to determine causality between that and either (a) the thing has burned out and (b) lockdown actually worked.
That’s a catch-22 that our political elite has managed to talk itself into a corner on with lies and promises.

The shit show hasn’t actually begun yet. Watch the slow unwinding and marketing. Will see what we have lost an about 5 years I reckon.
Keeping on topic I suggest a lot of us will never return to an office and a lot of us will never return to work.
So that’s a whole new problem to deal with which isn’t going to fit into neoliberal ideology.

The take home for me from all this is stay healthy and assume that there is no safety net.

That's a good 'safety' gig mate 


The lower level pooliticals aka 'in public view cannon fodder', are shafted either way, they let it play out way too long. 

so whether they pull the plug now (YES PLEASE ffs)

or keep rolling with it because their mates in businesses and govs that have invested or stupidly borrowed big, to quickly catch the wave to play the crisis supply game,

will be caught with their pants down with no more crisis supply demand, and looking for poolitical heads to roll

or something like that..


i.e. it's coming and won't be pretty for them, or us

btw do these polyticks clowns even wear masks, scrub their hands, one seat space gaps in limos,
and practice Safe Social Distancing at the Lodge bar? 

Your last point actually made me laugh. Firstly because that's exactly how our political elite all ended up with this. We had Boris shaking hands with people in hospital and basically being a wally.

Secondly, because I had a run in with the masons a few years ago. They are complete bastards and need to be eliminated from the planet.

[coppice]

It won't be <50%. Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc. So if you have a row of 4 seats and 3 people they might leave the 4th one free etc.

Something like 80% of air fights are taken by 20% of passengers: business travelers, primarily.  This will be a huge problem for airlines, as you suggest they might offer incentives if you can book seats in a family grouping but I'd still expect 50% of the aircraft to be empty and many fewer flights.

I wonder how many business travellers travel alone? If they travel as a team, with colleagues, will they be treated like a family unit, who can sit close together? Wouldn't it be strange to see holiday resort routes become the only profitable ones, because they offer better loading rate.

We really don't know how long this situation could last, and I fully expect to see several major, big name airlines go bust over it.

I wonder what that really means? It seems most American airlines are perpetually in Chapter 11, and treat this as normal. In this state they buy new planes and engage in mergers and acquisitions like they were on solid financial ground. Its a weird setup.

[paulca]

It will go the same as it always does.  The risks will be the public's (aka bailouts), but the profits will be private, aka bonuses, dividends and insane salaries.

Unless we take a stand and demand "No more bail outs!"

[GlennSprigg]

(Re:  Last few pages)
Flights??!!  Why aren't there NONE at the moment!!! (Except for very special circumstances/emergencies).
Half the World doesn't really take this seriously. Oh... numbers are down, so let's RELAX everything...
Yay... bring on the 2nd wave. The U.S. now has over A MILLION affected! Most states here in Australia
now have 1 or ZERO new cases for 1 or 2 days???  Hmmm... I wonder why!

[OwO]

Something like 80% of air fights are taken by 20% of passengers: business travelers, primarily.  This will be a huge problem for airlines, as you suggest they might offer incentives if you can book seats in a family grouping but I'd still expect 50% of the aircraft to be empty and many fewer flights.

We really don't know how long this situation could last, and I fully expect to see several major, big name airlines go bust over it.

Didn't know business travelers were the biggest troublemakers, but I guess the heavy drinking probably has something to do with it