Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

[Ranayna]

Well...

My working hours have been shortened (in germany this is called "Kurzarbeit"), by a whopping 80%.
This was on the horzon for several week, but i would not have expected that high of a cut. I am now only working one day per week, but with the official support of the government and some additional bonus by the company i work for, i will still earn 80% of the after tax amount that i did before. Money-wise i am not that fazed by that, i do not have to drive to work anymore, and the company canteen was also not cheap. So this is not *that* much of a pay cut.

But now i have time, like a lot of time. The "Kurzarbeit" is scheduled to last the next three months...

Some of that i will use to learn a scripting language, something that will be usefull at work. Since i have backed the EEZ BB3, this will likely be Python. I gues that will be useful there as well
But i am also now thinking about finally starting some electronics projects i have had running around in my mind for so damn long. Maybe i will even get around to repair my Tek 485 :p

I am running out of exuses, but my motivation is low at the moment.

[nctnico]

But now i have time, like a lot of time. The "Kurzarbeit" is scheduled to last the next three months...

I am running out of exuses, but my motivation is low at the moment.

To me it looks like an excellent opportunity to start a side business which could grow into a fulltime self-employed job.

[nctnico]

Thanks for the offer, but I can still think critically.

That is the problem right there. People think they know it better and ignore the rules. In the end this only leads to more stricter rules and more enforcement. If the government can trust people to adhere to a few simple rules then the lockdowns don't need to be that strict. By 'being clever' you only shoot yourself in the foot. The government is not the enemy; it is ignorance.

[Ranayna]

Yes, i have thought about stuff like that.
But i think it takes a certain kind of person to be able to establish a business, let alone a successful one. And i am quite sure that i am not that kind of person.

And i actually like my current job, i like my company, and i like my coworkers. Maybe that has made me complacent, but even in the current situation i do not see the company going under. On the contrary, i see a stressfull second half of the year with a significantly increased workload.

[paulca]

Thought this was a nice article.
https://medium.com/swlh/misinformation-goes-viral-1aad951e4492

[SerieZ]

Thanks for the offer, but I can still think critically.

That is the problem right there. People think they know it better and ignore the rules. In the end this only leads to more stricter rules and more enforcement. If the government can trust people to adhere to a few simple rules then the lockdowns don't need to be that strict. By 'being clever' you only shoot yourself in the foot. The government is not the enemy; it is ignorance.

Government is People... and people are often Ignorant.
Authority should always be questioned, even now.

And as always the ones getting the short straw are those doing self Isolation and mostly trying to adhere to the rules. They are not really going after the really big offenders... at least here in Switzerland i.e the church goers and over protected Minorities who are treated like Children.
And that is something you only see when you go take a look out the Windows, at least where I do. I never read about it in the Media... it just sounds ugly I guess. 

[EEVblog]

That is the problem right there. People think they know it better and ignore the rules. In the end this only leads to more stricter rules and more enforcement. If the government can trust people to adhere to a few simple rules then the lockdowns don't need to be that strict.

Who says the lockdowns have to be this strict to begin with? Ok, so not a bad move back when we didn't know jack about this thing.
But let's put that behind us, now look at those lockdowns, are they the only way forward? Are they the best way forward?
Many governments are still talking months worth of lockdowns at a minimum, destroying entire economies.
Is there a better way?
Radical left field thinking here, but perhaps reallocating all the current police effort fining young and healthy people sitting on a beach or in park, to, I don't know, maybe protecting the most vulnerable?
Huge numbers of deaths have come from retirement homes and villages, have any police been allocated to protect them? Just a thought...

The thing with the lockdowns is that we'll never really know how much they contributed to the drop in cases, as there has been effectively no control group. e.g. All of Australia was pretty much locked down at once from the federal level. That makes it very convenient in terms of political liability to keep it going for as long as possible. Because at the end of all this the politicians can always say it was the lockdowns that stopped it all and it's something that we had to to have for so long to save all those lives, and there is likely going to be little to data to contest that argument. At least not on a local level.

[EEVblog]

To me it looks like an excellent opportunity to start a side business which could grow into a fulltime self-employed job.

When economic disasters like this strike, and outside of world war times, this is already way beyond anything we have seen before, there are countless golden business opportunities for those who want to and are in a position to take advantage.

[EEVblog]

I think you may have missed the point of what some are calling "new normal". As I said above, you seem to be 2) The number of people being forced to work from home while they don't want it might be equal to the number of people wanting to work from home while they where never allowed to. Likely some people who wanted to work from home end up not liking it and people who didn't want to work from home ended up liking working from home after all. In the end you can't satisfy everyone  It's hard to predict what they outcome is going to be in the long run.

I'll predict it. In a couple of years time you'd be hard pressed see any difference at all in society and work from what we had 3 short months ago.
A small percentage will switch to working from home either permanently or occasionally as some businesses see the benefit of it, but I suspect that would be lucky to crack into the double digit percentage range.
Most industries will be back to normal, schools, restaurants, gyms, airplanes, large events etc. Social distancing will become a distant 2020 memory.
And this will, with any luck, likely happen whether or not a vaccine is ultimately found, as don't underestimate nature in solving this one on it's own.

[SilverSolder]

[...]  i.e the church goers and over protected Minorities who are treated like Children. [...]

They are protected by their God.  The rest of us have to rely on science!

[paulca]

They know how the virus transmits.  So how well lockdowns do is based on how well people do the lockdown.

It's a bit like saying "We asked people to not touch any live wires, nobody did, so nobody died.".  I don't think you need a control group of people who did touch the live wires and did die.

The only reasonable way out of this is, test, track, trace.  We need to find out who has it, who has had it and we need to know quickly.

However it seems that almost everything is being intercepted by the USA to the point that Germany and the UK are sending their air forces to transit PPE and other goods.

[paulca]

Actually ironically.  I was watching a lecture given by the UK's own governmental scientific advisor given in 2018 about pandemics and their control.  It was him and his colleges who wrote the book on this.  Korea, China and other countries sprung into action actually following his advice and introduced immediate and strict, test, track, isolate and lockdown.  They seem to have done much better.

The UK did sod all even when Italy and Spain exploded their advice was "Wash your hands", Ireland and even Northern Ireland took more strict measures before the UK did. 

Figure this, but the UK borders are still open in and out.

[EEVblog]

They know how the virus transmits.  So how well lockdowns do is based on how well people do the lockdown.

Of course, but 100% lockdown is physically impossible and is not happening anywhere on the planet, so it becomes a matter of how effective the various new "laws" actually are in practice, and how effective they still are over time. When you don't have an impossible 100% lock down, and you have no local control group to compare with, the data is always going to be skewed in one direction. It's almost certainly not going to be a linear thing. e.g drop infected person onto a cruise ship with 1000 other people vs one sitting on a beach (or in an open football stadium) with 1000 other people, and the spread rate is vastly different. We have (obviously) seen this already on cruise ships.
So when it comes to the politics of where we go from here, at some point (very shortly) it's no longer going to make sense to continue to lock down beaches and large open air gatherings like say football matches. In fact there almost has to be an experiment where we open things back up and see what happens, as that will tell us a huge amount about the return spread rate. We can't hold out in full lockdown until we have zero cases in the entire country for a month.

[paulca]

They know how the virus transmits.  So how well lockdowns do is based on how well people do the lockdown.

Of course, but 100% lockdown is physically impossible and is not happening anywhere on the planet, so it becomes a matter of how effective the various new "laws" actually are in practice, and how effective they still are over time. When you don't have an impossible 100% lock down, and you have no local control group to compare with, the data is always going to be skewed in one direction.

Agreed, but with the logarithmic graphs downward trending compared against epidemiologist predictions it would suggest the lock downs we have are working to some degree.

Anyway, the canary will be put down the mine pretty soon by the US as some states start opening beaches etc.  I think we should just wait and see what happens there.

Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down.

[EEVblog]

They know how the virus transmits.  So how well lockdowns do is based on how well people do the lockdown.

Of course, but 100% lockdown is physically impossible and is not happening anywhere on the planet, so it becomes a matter of how effective the various new "laws" actually are in practice, and how effective they still are over time. When you don't have an impossible 100% lock down, and you have no local control group to compare with, the data is always going to be skewed in one direction.

Agreed, but with the logarithmic graphs downward trending compared against epidemiologist predictions it would suggest the lock downs we have are working to some degree.

Absolutely no doubt they are working.

Anyway, the canary will be put down the mine pretty soon by the US as some states start opening beaches etc.  I think we should just wait and see what happens there.

Yes, someone has to do it.
I'd argue that Australia is a great place to do it. Nearing naff all daily cases, decently high testing rates, great medical system.
https://infogram.com/1pw1pepdlyzrxebv29em2p5z3nu9v5njqpq

Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down.

I haven't heard, data link?

[Tomorokoshi]

From the Johns Hopkins web site:

San Francisco County, California; City of San Francisco: 1157 confirmed cases, 20 deaths. Population: 4,700,000.
Minnehaha County, South Dakota; City of Sioux Falls: 1362 confirmed cases, 3 deaths. Population: 169,468.

San Francisco has extensive direct air links to places all over the world, including China. It had cases relatively early. Lot of travel. Very high density. San Francisco resembles New York much more than Sioux Falls.

Sioux Falls is on Highway 90. The nearest international airport is Minneapolis-Saint Paul in Minnesota, a 4 hour drive away.

San Francisco implemented social distancing early on.

The mayor of Sioux Falls wanted to implement social distancing of some type, but the governor of South Dakota won't do anything about it.

[paulca]

Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down.

I haven't heard, data link?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52336388

And if you check Japan on here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

The logrithmics are straight lines again

[SiliconWizard]

I didn't see anything like this on the curve for Japan's number of cases? If anything, the rise seems to be slowing down a little. What did I miss?

[paulca]

I didn't see anything like this on the curve for Japan's number of cases? If anything, the rise seems to be slowing down a little. What did I miss?

Well it's straight line on the log graph, but they "only" have 10k cases and only 260 deaths.  Of course there is always question over the data.

EDIT:  Looking at it another way, at the end of March they had like 2k cases.  Now mid april they have 10k

<shurg>

[MT]

Thanks for the offer, but I can still think critically.

That is the problem right there. People think they know it better and ignore the rules. In the end this only leads to more stricter rules and more enforcement. If the government can trust people to adhere to a few simple rules then the lockdowns don't need to be that strict. By 'being clever' you only shoot yourself in the foot. The government is not the enemy; it is ignorance.

Only a socialist would argue like that and thumbed up by other socialists! History repeats it self but socialists newer learns
because they want to be in power for eternity because the KNOW BEST precisely what you just said and then went
on lecturing your socialistic know it all's.

Well you already confessed you where a socialist in another thread so there you go.

If you want to continuing your self imprisonment based on ,as we enlightened people long time knew that covid 19 test
is a fraud not testing for covid19 aparently but all starins (se PCR inventor Kary Mulles notes)  the death numbers fudged
(confession by Trompets health minister and various doctors on MSM ) the CCP frauded numbers and knowledge of when
(standard science test by browns method) virus first was known etc and on and on, if you want to base your look down
on this please carry on. Good riddance!

[james_s]

And now we have this going on near me:
https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/hundreds-gather-in-olympia-to-protest-gov-inslees-stay-home-orders

As if we needed more of this sort of example supporting the stereotype that Americans are stupid 

[bd139]

Don't worry. The whole human race is stupid. It's not just you 

[paulca]

Just have to hope they don't take too many innocent people with them.

[maginnovision]

And now we have this going on near me:
https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/hundreds-gather-in-olympia-to-protest-gov-inslees-stay-home-orders

As if we needed more of this sort of example supporting the stereotype that Americans are stupid 

Some people really don't have money and get upset when they're not allowed to make some. Look at it as early lockdown easing and we'll get some data on how it affects things.

[EEVblog]

I didn't see anything like this on the curve for Japan's number of cases? If anything, the rise seems to be slowing down a little. What did I miss?

Well it's straight line on the log graph, but they "only" have 10k cases and only 260 deaths.  Of course there is always question over the data.
EDIT:  Looking at it another way, at the end of March they had like 2k cases.  Now mid april they have 10k
<shurg>

You specifically said "Japan are apparently experiencing a second wave after relaxing lock down."
That doesn't appear to be backed up by the data, if anything, daily cases are down.