Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

[SilverSolder]

But that depends mostly on the definition of worst which is not necessarily the immediate body count.

It's a Y2K thing again. Beat it with decisive and robust action and everyone questions what the issue was. Could be worth reading this article from The Grauniad, which notes that we in the UK are now suffering what we saw as horrific over in Italy and Spain because we didn't act soon enough in a robust enough way. The problem here is that we can't hold back and see what it's going to do because by the time that's apparent it's too late to do anything about it. It's not a question of is the cure worse than the disease, it's a question of how much we want to bet on an unknown risk level. And we are playing with people's lives, not money or fame or anything.

Intellectually a few hundred thousand dead isn't that big of a deal when you look at the world population (although that's now, with everyone scared shitless enough to take precautions - what would it be if we weren't?). But this is what separates us from animals, isn't it? That we value someone's life more than anything else. Even those old folks who have lost their minds and don't know what's going on, who have serious underlying issues as well, we take care of them and let them die in dignity when, intellectually and monetarily, it would surely be better to off them as soon as they become a net resource sink.

Every old person is someone's parent, uncle, or aunt - means something to someone's life.  E.g. my grandmother had a lot of influence on me when I was a kid/ teenager.  She was just calmer and more far seeing than my parents, and I found she often made more sense...   Experience and wisdom is underrated these days.

[nctnico]

Every old person is someone's parent, uncle, or aunt - means something to someone's life.  E.g. my grandmother had a lot of influence on me when I was a kid/ teenager.  She was just calmer and more far seeing than my parents, and I found she often made more sense...   Experience and wisdom is underrated these days.

True but at some point old people are also clever enough to understand that resuscitation and/or being put on a ventilator is not going to make their quality of life better - if they make it-. A couple of days ago I read an article saying many old people are sending DNR / do not ventilate statements to their doctors.

[EEVblog]

Churches and gyms can also spread people over the day. Modern technology like apps can help to allow people to plan a visit.

Hardly anyone is going to do that, and you can't enforce it legally, and no business is going to want to enforce it themselves because they know it will limit patronage.
Gyms for example are almost always fit around peoples work/life schedules, e.g. 9:30am classes is the Yummy Mummy hour after they drop the kids off at school. Lunch time classes are work break, 5:30pm-7:00pm is after work etc. These thing won't magically change much.
Churches are Sunday group affairs, always have been always will be, you won't change that.

Bottom line is life has to return to pretty much "normal", and it has to do so fairly quickly whether people like it or not.
People thinking there will be some radical permanent "new normal" are delusional. People are creatures of habit and they will return.

[EEVblog]

However the people depending on tourism are going to be hit hard. I don't see a way around that especially in places where they have to rely on foreigners.

Hardest hit by far.
And they are saying international travel restrictions will remain in place until the end of the year and I can believe that, as that's a "no brainer" political decision.
It may also be scheduled, like say essential business travel only before then, but once the flood gates open people will pour back into travel because it will be so cheap.

[mrflibble]

Doesn't one hope for the best but plan for the worst?

There will be movies ...

Agreed, that is definitely going to be the worst.

[SiliconWizard]

However the people depending on tourism are going to be hit hard. I don't see a way around that especially in places where they have to rely on foreigners.

Hardest hit by far.
And they are saying international travel restrictions will remain in place until the end of the year and I can believe that, as that's a "no brainer" political decision.

Yep. And some countries/regions particularly depend on tourism. This is going to be a complete disaster for them.

[nctnico]

Churches and gyms can also spread people over the day. Modern technology like apps can help to allow people to plan a visit.

Hardly anyone is going to do that, and you can't enforce it legally, and no business is going to want to enforce it themselves because they know it will limit patronage.
Gyms for example are almost always fit around peoples work/life schedules, e.g. 9:30am classes is the Yummy Mummy hour after they drop the kids off at school. Lunch time classes are work break, 5:30pm-7:00pm is after work etc. These thing won't magically change much.

Over here they are allowing a limited number of people inside shops to adhere to governments rules. Works pretty well and it is enforced legally. The same can work for gyms, etc. And don't forget: people who work from home can create their own schedule. They are no longer bound to a '9 to 5' rythm. From a biological standpoint there is no rule which says humans (like to) work best from 9 to 5.

People thinking there will be some radical permanent "new normal" are delusional. People are creatures of habit and they will return.

IMHO you are underestimating the flexibility of people. Sure there will be a very vocal minorty shouting that everything used to be better in the past.

[SiliconWizard]

People thinking there will be some radical permanent "new normal" are delusional. People are creatures of habit and they will return.

I agree. But people thinking/talking about a "new normal" should also ask themselves what they really wish for.

Many are talking about a "better" world with more reasoned economy, less waste, less pollution, less globalization.. all of which seem pretty unlikely past a short-term situation, but that may sound "nice".

What they are consistently omitting though is that the only permanent change, if there is any (which I have no clue about at this point), for the "new normal", is likely to be one of the most severe dent in individual freedom that humankind has ever experienced (excepting slavery). In that regard, I certainly do hope things are going to get back to "normal". If the new normal is to all live in bubbles linked to a giant virtual network, no thanks.

[paulca]

If the new normal is to all live in bubbles linked to a giant virtual network, no thanks.

We already were.  It's just that reality has much higher definition.

[peter-h]

Tourism can return, but there will be safeguards e.g. thermal cameras at airports. Greece had these c. 10 years ago when another epidemic was going on. That takes out a good % of people, because nearly all people will still otherwise travel when ill. They don't want to lose the money. This was hugely evident in Feb/Mar in the Alpine ski scene, when so many still travelled even when an imminent shutdown was obviously likely, and the lack of action on their return spread the virus nicely.

Then there are likely to be test certificates, which may be acceptable if done say within past week. And an immunity certificate will be even better.

The incentive to set this up will be massive. A number of European countries get tens of % of GDP from tourism.

Tourism is not the only thing here. Even going to a gym or fitness classes is a massive infection spreader. The establishments will need to do something otherwise most of their clients will drop out. Classes can be run (and already are) over video but a gym can't

[coppice]

Tourism can return, but there will be safeguards e.g. thermal cameras at airports.

This is nothing new, so we can look at history. During SARS, and swine flu, and bird flu, and MERS IR thermometers and cameras were widely deployed at borders and transport interchanges. They continued to be used after the epidemic went away, but as they aged and failed they were not replaced. So, COVID-19 appeared, and everyone had to re-equip as fast as they could.

[james_s]

I agree. But people thinking/talking about a "new normal" should also ask themselves what they really wish for.

Many are talking about a "better" world with more reasoned economy, less waste, less pollution, less globalization.. all of which seem pretty unlikely past a short-term situation, but that may sound "nice".

What they are consistently omitting though is that the only permanent change, if there is any (which I have no clue about at this point), for the "new normal", is likely to be one of the most severe dent in individual freedom that humankind has ever experienced (excepting slavery). In that regard, I certainly do hope things are going to get back to "normal". If the new normal is to all live in bubbles linked to a giant virtual network, no thanks.

My grandparents grew up during the great depression and from what I remember them saying, the experience shaped an entire generation and made an impression that lasted the rest of their lives. I think there will certainly be permanent shifts after all this, well as permanent as anything is. It would not surprise me if it all but ends hugging in social situations (fine by me, I hate getting hugged by friends) and severely curtails old customs like shaking hands. Those who know someone who dies are probably going to get a more lasting impression than those who don't.

[james_s]

We are on the verge of easing restrictions here.
They will likely stage restrictions, but even then conflicts will remains. For example, if you re-open shops and restaurants then that also forces them to remove the two persons congregating in public rule etc.
But yeah, they have said "social distancing" is likely to remain for the rest of the year. But then how do the handle say restaurants and movie theaters? Do you only allows two people per seat/table separated by X distance. What about food court chairs?
It starts getting ridiculous very fast, and we have already had many examples of police abusing their powers for stupid simple things. They can't keep this up for another year, people will just start to ignore any rules eventually. At the moment it's this novel thing (I'm here are week!), give give it another few months and people will be really sick and tired of it all and will get back to their lives regardless of any laws.

I think there are many compromises that can be made, and places like restaurants I would expect will largely do them voluntarily in order to prevent another forced shutdown. For example they could reduce the number of tables temporarily, remove every other booth table for example, allow groups like families that fit at one table to come in but don't do large group gatherings. As we shift into summer in this region outdoor seating becomes an option at many restaurants and then having something like an attendant who sanitizes door handles and restroom fixtures immediately after use can go a long way toward mitigating the risk.

There is a very large range between "the old way" and the total lockdowns we have today. It's too bad we didn't have the foresight to take such actions ahead of time.

[nctnico]

Another thing to consider is that many people are going through a mourning process due to the sudden change. Seeing any upside is hard in such a condition.

[PlainName]

Bottom line is life has to return to pretty much "normal", and it has to do so fairly quickly whether people like it or not.

That assumes this will end. It won't - this particular pandemic will, but there will be another. And other things - 3 months ago a nuke exchange seemed a possibility 'but not really'. Now, those disaster movies aren't just fiction any more but really happen. We would be reckless if we didn't prepare more, whether that's maintaining central stockpiles at levels they should be, not firing the people that work out what to do and how to do it when there's a disaster, or just putting aside an extra can of beans each week. It's going to be that way at least until the current generation get to be old fuddies doing things their grandkids think silly, just like we don't really appreciate why our old folks keep the skin on carrots and save stale bread, etc.

[bd139]

Ugh back to the original subject, my ADSL has just started getting wonky. Fun week ahead working from home for me! Starting to look at 4G backup options...

[2N3055]

Ugh back to the original subject, my ADSL has just started getting wonky. Fun week ahead working from home for me! Starting to look at 4G backup options...

Funny you mentioned that. I have 4G backup on my ADSL and it's been switching back and forth for last few weeks. Some of the infrastructure was damaged when there was earthquake in Zagreb some time ago, and 4G backup worked great. Had Internet whole time, seamlessly, while main Internet provider was repairing network, switching between primary and backup sites....

[bd139]

Yeah it's a good idea to sort out. Need to work out how to set it up so I have 4G but the kids don't if the WAN peer goes down otherwise they'll end up routing netflix down it or something 

Can get an 80Gb SIM for £20 a month here which is good enough for my needs.

[2N3055]

Yeah it's a good idea to sort out. Need to work out how to set it up so I have 4G but the kids don't if the WAN peer goes down otherwise they'll end up routing netflix down it or something 

Can get an 80Gb SIM for £20 a month here which is good enough for my needs.

Mikrotik router ...Firewall zones, multiple access points, QOS, throttling... It has it all..

[bd139]

That's exactly where I am  . Looking at their hAP ac unit. 5GHz, 4G via USB etc.

Is RouterOS a complete piece of shit or is that an unfounded rumor?

[2N3055]

That's exactly where I am  . Looking at their hAP ac unit. 5GHz, 4G via USB etc.

Is RouterOS a complete piece of shit or is that an unfounded rumor?

Nope. Cisco lovers are just jealous..
It has less bugs that our Cisco core routers..

[bd139]

It's not hard to have less bugs than a Cisco (particulary fucking 5525's which are giving me a right arse ache with IPsec) 

Network plan time  . Thanks for the feedback

[langwadt]

We are on the verge of easing restrictions here.
They will likely stage restrictions, but even then conflicts will remains. For example, if you re-open shops and restaurants then that also forces them to remove the two persons congregating in public rule etc.
But yeah, they have said "social distancing" is likely to remain for the rest of the year. But then how do the handle say restaurants and movie theaters? Do you only allows two people per seat/table separated by X distance. What about food court chairs?
It starts getting ridiculous very fast, and we have already had many examples of police abusing their powers for stupid simple things. They can't keep this up for another year, people will just start to ignore any rules eventually. At the moment it's this novel thing (I'm here are week!), give give it another few months and people will be really sick and tired of it all and will get back to their lives regardless of any laws.

I think there are many compromises that can be made, and places like restaurants I would expect will largely do them voluntarily in order to prevent another forced shutdown. For example they could reduce the number of tables temporarily, remove every other booth table for example, allow groups like families that fit at one table to come in but don't do large group gatherings. As we shift into summer in this region outdoor seating becomes an option at many restaurants and then having something like an attendant who sanitizes door handles and restroom fixtures immediately after use can go a long way toward mitigating the risk.

There is a very large range between "the old way" and the total lockdowns we have today. It's too bad we didn't have the foresight to take such actions ahead of time.

I think most restaurants don't have much margin at the best of times so reducing the number of seats might make them unviable

[maginnovision]

Yea, theaters, restaurants, theme parks. These things make money being packed and they're unlikely to run if forced to be at 20% capacity.

[coppice]

Yea, theaters, restaurants, theme parks. These things make money being packed and they're unlikely to run if forced to be at 20% capacity.

Theme parks are based on keeping people in queues as much of the time as possible. As long as they rework the queuing areas to have family groups with 2m gaps between them they'll be fine.