Working From Home - Impacts of Coronavirus

[EEVblog]

The last thing they are going to do is independently decide to turn away passengers that don't have a tracing app installed, that's madness.

You may be right, we'll see. At this point I'm not completely sure.
As I said earlier, I'm looking at what happened for fighting terrorism. There were a number of things that changed regarding boarding planes after that, and that are here to stay.

Again, those measures were not put in place by the airlines, it was mandated by government authority.

Granted that those measures are only mildly annoying for the passengers, so if something like that was decided for fighting virus spreading, that would have to be relatively light as well. But at this point, I'm not completely rejecting the idea that at least something is going to change for traveling, especially in planes. Just don't know what.

They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
As long as people can get a seat they won't care, in fact many will find it very comfortable, most people love a half filled plane. The thing with the app is that most people do not want it, have already resisted it, and consider it an affront to personal liberty. The airlines know this, which is why they won't mandate it, nor will the government.

[Someone]

So it seems the UK government thinks it will choose what people actually install.

They want the full centralized contact matching service.  I'm probably going to say, no to this one.  I've worked in big data.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428

The risk here is that a lot of people will reject this, then some people will install and begin using Google's offering instead, dividing the data and watering down it's effectiveness.

You can understand the vagueness up to now as a way to allow exploration of ideas and not have to publicly backtrack/backdown on previously announced plans. But, the UK (NHS?) official announcements were so painfully massaged it was clear they were intentionally hiding the unpalatable parts until its too late to change them.

[SiliconWizard]

The last thing they are going to do is independently decide to turn away passengers that don't have a tracing app installed, that's madness.

You may be right, we'll see. At this point I'm not completely sure.
As I said earlier, I'm looking at what happened for fighting terrorism. There were a number of things that changed regarding boarding planes after that, and that are here to stay.

Again, those measures were not put in place by the airlines, it was mandated by government authority.

Fair point. If governments do no mandate this kind of thing, there's little reason airlines would on their own. But that could be government-mandated measures.

Granted that those measures are only mildly annoying for the passengers, so if something like that was decided for fighting virus spreading, that would have to be relatively light as well. But at this point, I'm not completely rejecting the idea that at least something is going to change for traveling, especially in planes. Just don't know what.

They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.

If this is what will be, I'm good with that. I like having my personal space in planes. But this sure would prevent filling planes, and would lead to further losses for airlines... for who knows how long.

[Electro Detective]

Gents, please excuse if my inconvenient math is incorrect

but just how is are the airlines going to keep prices low or affordable,

when planes are flown deliberately half empty or half full ?

that's just begging for a cheap takeover acquisition/s and who knows how the new owners may/will seek to cut costs,

or what their priority thinking is relating to servicing of the planes 

[langwadt]

Gents, please excuse if my inconvenient math is incorrect

but just how is are the airlines going to keep prices low or affordable,

when planes are flown deliberately half empty or half full ?

that's just begging for a cheap takeover acquisition/s and who knows how the new owners may/will seek to cut costs,

or what their priority thinking is relating to servicing of the planes

they are not flying anywhere, they are all bankrupt or will be very soon

[SiliconWizard]

This is not going to be pretty, even without this half-filling plane thing. Several airlines have already said this could be several years from now until they can serve dividends again, which is likely to put off quite a few shareholders. And if enough of them sell, I'll let you imagine what happens next.

[PlainName]

but just how is are the airlines going to keep prices low or affordable,

Fuel is very nearly free at the moment, so the airlines costs are not what they were. Whether that reduction is enough to cover losing a third of the passengers I don't know, but what's killing the airlines right now (and has already done for some small outfits) is not flying anywhere.

[rsjsouza]

If there is such mandate, there'll be bailouts. In other words, you and I will foot the bill on one hand, while paying a lot more per ticket on the other.

Regarding the app... I agree with the opinion the silent contagion phase may make it quite innocuous or way too dangerous due to the amount of tracking data gathered about one person's life. Besides, the data proessing engine for all that may be quite expensive and I don't trust Google or Apple to handle that.

[EEVblog]

They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.

If this is what will be, I'm good with that. I like having my personal space in planes. But this sure would prevent filling planes, and would lead to further losses for airlines... for who knows how long.

You can bet the airlines won't do it willingly without it still being official government advice, thy will want to pack out the planes as quickly as possible, to get them out of extinction of course, but to also capitalise on the low fuel costs at present.
They know that people who fly will want to fly regardless. And this whole hype will die down very quickly in places like Australia with single digit cases unless there is another huge flare-up and media beat-up. The air inside an airplane cabin is actually very clean, it's HEPA filtered and exchanged constantly. So the actual chances of picking up something aren't that high if everyone follows good hygiene and sick people don't come on board and start coughing or sneezing.

[EEVblog]

Gents, please excuse if my inconvenient math is incorrect
but just how is are the airlines going to keep prices low or affordable,
when planes are flown deliberately half empty or half full ?
that's just begging for a cheap takeover acquisition/s and who knows how the new owners may/will seek to cut costs,
or what their priority thinking is relating to servicing of the planes

a) Fuel is incredibly cheap at present.
b) The goal is to encourage people back flying again with extremely low airfares, even if they don't make a profit on a route, it's better than going out of business. The airline business is a long term play.
c) The continued flying of planes regardless of number of passengers is vitally important in order to keep pilots certified without requiring simulator time and re-certification. You can't just shut down and airline completely for a couple of months and then just start up again the next day, you'd have no recently active pilots left, they wouldn't be allowed to fly unless you a special exemption.

[EEVblog]

This is not going to be pretty, even without this half-filling plane thing. Several airlines have already said this could be several years from now until they can serve dividends again, which is likely to put off quite a few shareholders. And if enough of them sell, I'll let you imagine what happens next.

For every seller there has to be a matching buyer.
But yeah, they will all be hurting for several years at a minimum.

[james_s]

I'll buy some airline stock if it drops down low enough, I've been eyeing Boeing stock too. I'm in for the long haul and I know it'll come back up eventually.

[thinkfat]

They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
As long as people can get a seat they won't care, in fact many will find it very comfortable, most people love a half filled plane. The thing with the app is that most people do not want it, have already resisted it, and consider it an affront to personal liberty. The airlines know this, which is why they won't mandate it, nor will the government.

Sure, that will be the end of cheap air travel. Flying all planes with < 50% fill level is not economically viable. For no airline in the world. So, prices will go up (more than double, I expect) and many carriers will go bust.

[Electro Detective]

I'll bet the win win corporats are currently flying about in their private jets
to 'secret' meetings with other respected fellow dirtbags, behind closed doors in swank hotels
to discuss who gets what part of the crumbled world pie very soon,
at bargain basement prices.. maybe a dollar or two just above FREE

and this time Corona gets the blame for the 'global economic downturn', and no one else,
how do you prosecute and imprison Mr/Ms Corona, right?   

Bastards thought of every angle this time around,
even the conspiracy theorist clowns will have no evidence to work with, real or imagined 
 
oh well, 1930 Reloaded...

we can tell the grandkids in 2066 how we copped it sweet in the Great/est Depression of 2020/21/22
and tell em they have the easy life..


FlashForward to 2066:

"Sorry to hear that grandpa, but our Edu-Phone history app states the lot of you were fear riddled suckers and troll herded idiots,
and deserved what you got for not seeking alternative information, nor bothering to verify the information given or their sources.

So save us the old schooler battler bs Gramps, and hurry up and cash out,
so we can stick your whining med junkie ass in the ground,
and flog off this dump you call home and split the dough,
or build some high rise shoe box apartments and live pretty" 


Wait till they find out Gran and Grandpa blew the house at the pokies, and paying rent.. Priceless   

[paulca]

The only people I wish this virus on are the people who deny it exists or that it's not serious.  Them and orange toddler Trump.

[Electro Detective]

Wish hard mate, nothing short of deliberate mass poisoning is going to make anything like that happen

Time is running out for the perps, people everywhere are beginning to get fed up and will want BS vendor blood soon 

Not good being on the receiving end of short stick people with knackered businesses, losing their homes put up as security, debt owing on top,
no immediate employment prospects, and trashed family relationships as a result

There'll be a LOT of unhappy campers like that everywhere, the perps better start filling their ancestors dusty carpetbags asap, and hire a fast boat to.. ? 

[paulca]

Nor is it nice hearing about the people you knew dying.

I'm literally currently listening to a work college who has been knocked for 6 by it.  Some c*** coughed over him in the supermarket.  It's the only thing he can put it down to, but hits 9 out of 10 checklist items for CovId19.  He has a wife and 3 kids.

EDIT: and another friend just posted on FB a family member has lost their battle with Covid this morning.

[thinkfat]

Hint: There's a "Don't show <idiot> posts" feature in here. Works a treat for those of us who can resist clicking the "Show me <idiot> post" button.

[thinkfat]

Back to the original topic: If there's one thing I can see as a plus in the current situation, it is that my cooking has improved a lot, now that I'm preparing all meals for the family every day. Doesn't help my waist line, though, it has also "improved" a lot

[EEVblog]

They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
As long as people can get a seat they won't care, in fact many will find it very comfortable, most people love a half filled plane. The thing with the app is that most people do not want it, have already resisted it, and consider it an affront to personal liberty. The airlines know this, which is why they won't mandate it, nor will the government.

Sure, that will be the end of cheap air travel. Flying all planes with < 50% fill level is not economically viable. For no airline in the world. So, prices will go up (more than double, I expect) and many carriers will go bust.

It won't be <50%. Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc. So if you have a row of 4 seats and 3 people they might leave the 4th one free etc.
Many airlines have already gone bust or will soon go bust regardless of what happens. Any some are already in receivership, in which case getting back operational in any reduced capacity is still good.
Also, most airlines also carry cargo, which is at a premium price at the moment. Less people on a flight means more commercial cargo they can carry on that flight. Some airlines are buying old 747's to press into service as cargo planes to stay in business. So reduced passenger numbers doesn't automatically mean they go bust.

[Nusa]

c) The continued flying of planes regardless of number of passengers is vitally important in order to keep pilots certified without requiring simulator time and re-certification. You can't just shut down and airline completely for a couple of months and then just start up again the next day, you'd have no recently active pilots left, they wouldn't be allowed to fly unless you a special exemption.

For pilots, the mass loss of certification happens about 3 months after they stop flying. Which hasn't happened yet for most of them, but it's coming up fast. Others will be kept current by being rotated in on the remaining flights or with simulator time (if they are lucky enough to be quarantined in the same area as the simulators). Many senior captains will likely be taking early retirement offers, since they face mandatory retirement at age 65 anyway. At least in the case of the large or state-supported airlines. For smaller airlines, this may be an extinction event.

It's not just the people, it's also the planes. Most of the ones that aren't still flying are parked with some level of maintenance mothballing. It'll take time and manpower to reverse the process, inspect and re-certify them for service again when the time comes. If the time comes...airlines are advancing retirement plans for planes as well.

[langwadt]

They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
As long as people can get a seat they won't care, in fact many will find it very comfortable, most people love a half filled plane. The thing with the app is that most people do not want it, have already resisted it, and consider it an affront to personal liberty. The airlines know this, which is why they won't mandate it, nor will the government.

Sure, that will be the end of cheap air travel. Flying all planes with < 50% fill level is not economically viable. For no airline in the world. So, prices will go up (more than double, I expect) and many carriers will go bust.

It won't be <50%. Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc. So if you have a row of 4 seats and 3 people they might leave the 4th one free etc.
Many airlines have already gone bust or will soon go bust regardless of what happens. Any some are already in receivership, in which case getting back operational in any reduced capacity is still good.
Also, most airlines also carry cargo, which is at a premium price at the moment. Less people on a flight means more commercial cargo they can carry on that flight. Some airlines are buying old 747's to press into service as cargo planes to stay in business. So reduced passenger numbers doesn't automatically mean they go bust.

they most be getting those 747 very cheap from all the airlines that are retiring them, they are not as fuel efficient as more modern planes and maintaining four engines instead of two is expensive

[coppice]

Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc.

I don't think so. I have rarely flown anyone else, and most of the people around me seem to be travelling alone. I assume I would have seen a different picture on flights to holiday resorts, but I don't know what percentage of flights those are.

[SiliconWizard]

They have already said likely it'll be a social distancing thing, like a one seat gap between groups. Again, likely still government mandated.
As long as people can get a seat they won't care, in fact many will find it very comfortable, most people love a half filled plane. The thing with the app is that most people do not want it, have already resisted it, and consider it an affront to personal liberty. The airlines know this, which is why they won't mandate it, nor will the government.

Sure, that will be the end of cheap air travel. Flying all planes with < 50% fill level is not economically viable. For no airline in the world. So, prices will go up (more than double, I expect) and many carriers will go bust.

It won't be <50%. Majority of people travel in family groups/couples etc. So if you have a row of 4 seats and 3 people they might leave the 4th one free etc.

Maybe you do, but I still don't know for sure what the exact rules will be, and how long they will last.

Over here, the rules for after May 11th have been announced - and apparently, for all transports, the rule will be every other seat in public transports will be empty - so that effectively cuts the capacity in half. Of course they didn't state anything specifically for planes, but if the same rule applies, there won't be this grouping thing.

Note that applying a group approach in planes with 1 seat between "groups" may make it pretty hard (or even almost intractable) to properly distribute the seats in planes to keep them balanced, so I'm not too sure how that would be workable in practice. Just a thought.

[SiliconWizard]

This is not going to be pretty, even without this half-filling plane thing. Several airlines have already said this could be several years from now until they can serve dividends again, which is likely to put off quite a few shareholders. And if enough of them sell, I'll let you imagine what happens next.

For every seller there has to be a matching buyer.

Yeah, but you might not like the end result much.