When will UK (+other countries) not be able to buy Chinese Electronics?

[tautech]

30 years ago the Japanese were the western challenging race and now they have a large marketplace car presence and we're not incensed with that, why should we be concerned with Chinese electronics ? 

IMHO, because:
Japan made cars and electronics are high quality,

And where were you in the '70's ?
Jap cars were complete rust buckets POS. Toys and consumer goods were no better but they are now.
Jap engineering was OK, well at least they didn't have the 'designed in' oil leaks of Brit stuff but it took some decades before the Japs got their metallurgy right.

In just the last decade I've seen the Chinese quality and technology improve immensely, they learn by their mistakes just as the Japs did.

[CJay]

Umm, 30 years ago is almost the 1990s, you're 20 years early

[ferdieCX]

30 years ago the Japanese were the western challenging race and now they have a large marketplace car presence and we're not incensed with that, why should we be concerned with Chinese electronics ? 

IMHO, because:
Japan made cars and electronics are high quality,

And where were you in the '70's ?
Jap cars were complete rust buckets POS. Toys and consumer goods were no better but they are now.
Jap engineering was OK, well at least they didn't have the 'designed in' oil leaks of Brit stuff but it took some decades before the Japs got their metallurgy right.

In just the last decade I've seen the Chinese quality and technology improve immensely, they learn by their mistakes just as the Japs did.

In 1980, the people in Uruguay that could afford them was happy with their Toyotas and Hondas.
Yamaha, Pioneer and other audio stuff from the end of the 70s were good, but I throw away a Sony that I bought in 1991, tired of having contact problems with the switch of the speakers.

I have a Sanwa multimeter that I got in 1971, it still works and is within its 3 % DC specification
In 1984 I bought a Trio Oscilloscope, it still works flawless. The same applies to a Leader function generator.
Don't get me wrong, I have a Simpson 260 too and I also worked  in the Tektronix and Fluke service in the 80s, so I known that they were better than the japanese instruments.

Edit: grammar error corrected

[MK14]

I very much doubt China's lead will just be a blip in history.  Many historians have suggested that China lead the world in living standards perhaps 900 years out of the last 1000.  The "American Historical Association" calls China "The Oldest Living Civilization"^[1], so China is no shooting star.
------Cut-------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks, that's a very good post.

I agree, that the coming rising of status of China, is very likely to be something which carries on for a substantial amount of time. Which could be tens or hundreds of years or much, much longer.

I get the impression, that China's rise, is way, way past the point of critical mass, and is long past the point it could be realistically stopped by the West.

I suspect that even if the west grouped together, and completely stopped all trade with China. China's home market and all the other countries round the world, which would continue trading with China, would continue to propel its progress along.

Assuming, and hopefully no wars between Russia/China/North-Korea and the west, break out.
I assume that at some point, the west, will try and rebuild its industries, and become less and less dependent on China.
This might be sparked off by an out of control trade war between China and the US (Trump being a kind of loose cannon, or whatever the term should be for someone who might take the trade war too far and lose control of it), internal troubles in China, or simply the Chinese prices (sooner or later), becoming much higher than they are now.

I'm still not 100% convinced that China will make it to the very top of the powerful country, and technologically advanced tree, like the US has done and been for many decades or longer.

Because, (sorry to be rude about China), they tend to copy inventions/ideas/IP/patents (usually from the west), rather than cleanly/freshly invent and innovate the stuff themselves.
Also, there is a tendency for the quality, to not be very good. Especially as regards, consistency of manufacturing, reliability, durability, safety standards and using safe renewable materials (i.e. I'd panic if I found food I was eating, came from China, especially milk).

Part of the reason for the often amazingly low prices of things from China. Is because, the item price does NOT include the costs of development and research for future products, of that type (which is partly a reflection, of the fact, that things are often copies, rather than really invented by/in China).

To put it another way, the latest cpu, from the west, might cost £100. (All figures VERY approximate, just to show the concept).
The breakdown of that cost might be £10 to make the cpu, £10 paying for the existing design, £10 towards inventing future cpus = £30 so.
The rest (£70), is dealer markup/profit, cpu manufacturer profit and taxes and other charges, to make it £100.

So a (hypothetical) Chinese cpu, may only cost £15.
Partly because it only costs £5 to make it in China (rather than £10 in the west), partly because the design might be "IP stolen" or copied, and because they only pay £0 towards tax, and £0 for research into future cpus.

But, in order to go 8086/8, 80186, 80286, 80386, 80486 etc.
You have to invest huge amounts of money, into developing the future IC processes and later cpu designs.
I don't think the Chinese method, spends (perhaps) half of the money, towards developing things for the future.

I can't see how they can sell things, and keep them up to date, with the latest technology trends, if they fail to put huge amounts of money into research and development.

Because, sooner or later, the west will wise up to China's (rumoured) IP/patents/inventions/designs/copyright "stealing" antics, and stop/minimise/reduce the chances of the loss of IP, in the future.

[Cerebus]

Because, (sorry to be rude about China), they tend to copy inventions/ideas/IP/patents (usually from the west), rather than cleanly/freshly invent and innovate the stuff themselves.
Also, there is a tendency for the quality, to not be very good. Especially as regards, consistency of manufacturing, reliability, durability, safety standards and using safe renewable materials (i.e. I'd panic if I found food I was eating, came from China, especially milk).

You can tell when someone's young and hasn't experienced history or taken "those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it" to heart.

In the 1960s exactly the same was being said about Japanese goods and manufacturing. By the 1990s we were all being told that we should start learning Japanese as they were going to take over the world economically, and indeed Europe (including the UK) and the US started to fill up with the factories of Japanese companies, with Japanese senior management. By 2010 the Japanese economic expansion had finished and decline was setting in.

We're at the stage now with China where I've heard it mooted, just as it was with Japan, that we should start learning Chinese. China however, is already starting to show internal cracks in its rush to economic ascendancy. As an example I'll cite the whole new cities that have been built (on perverse economic incentives) that are not being occupied. I would not be in the least surprised if the 'China thing' is over almost as soon as it started.

[MK14]

You can tell when someone's young and hasn't experienced history or taken "those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it" to heart.

In the 1960s exactly the same was being said about Japanese goods and manufacturing. By the 1990s we were all being told that we should start learning Japanese as they were going to take over the world economically, and indeed Europe (including the UK) and the US started to fill up with the factories of Japanese companies, with Japanese senior management. By 2010 the Japanese economic expansion had finished and decline was setting in.

We're at the stage now with China where I've heard it mooted, just as it was with Japan, that we should start learning Chinese. China however, is already starting to show internal cracks in its rush to economic ascendancy. As an example I'll cite the whole new cities that have been built (on perverse economic incentives) that are not being occupied. I would not be in the least surprised if the 'China thing' is over almost as soon as it started.

As regards, which country or group of countries, is going to be at the top of the food chain (as regards, wealth, military power, technology, etc). In the upcoming 10, 20, 50, 100 years or more.

I wouldn't like to call it.
It could be China and/or US and/or Europe and/or Other upcoming country(s).

China is looking good at the moment, and may continue in their upwards direction. But things could go wrong for them, for a million and one, different reasons. Just as you suggest.

The UK (Brexit), is about to substantially stay within, or substantially exit the EU. Depending on how the current discussions progress and/or any re-voting.

I.e. The accepted compromises, may mean the UK, is still effectively within the EU, (perhaps still paying huge bills to to EU, still within its rules, and yet with the loss of all voting rights).
But it could swing the other way, and we could be effectively outside the EU for real.

Again, I would not like to call it. It could go either way. The PM may get their way, and (apparently/effectively) stay within the EU, or we could get out of it for real (hard brexit).

tl;dr
It is NOT clear how the UK and the rest of the world, including China, will be. In the next 10 years and later.

E.g. How is Brexit going to turn out.
What happens after Trump, to the US ?
Does China continue on their upward spiral ?
Etc etc.

[floobydust]

UK-based ARM Holdings was acquired by SoftBank for $32 billion in Sept. 2016. Softbank has massive investments in Alibaba, Weibo and surely chinese money.

How wasn't this a huge loss to the UK? Where has that $32B gone to?

salon article  on the Death by China documentary summed it all up:

"The problem is capitalism itself... not just by China’s so-called Communists but also by every major political party in every Western democracy: an unregulated, undisciplined and immoral global economic system that recognizes no national borders, abides by no social contract and thinks only in terms of short-term profit."

[VK3DRB]

Can't help thinking we are all fools but putting all your electronic eggs into the one basket - China. We have turned a blind eye to cheap labour, and next to no unions or workers rights - just so we can get more stuff. If China closed its doors tomorrow we would all be screwed. We deserve what is coming to us.

[MK14]

Can't help thinking we are all fools but putting all your electronic eggs into the one basket - China. We have turned a blind eye to cheap labour, and next to no unions or workers rights - just so we can get more stuff. If China closed its doors tomorrow we would all be screwed. We deserve what is coming to us.

Imagine a hypothetical, worse case situation.
China suddenly 100% disappears from the globe. (e.g. massive asteroid hit, only taking out China).

By and large, the equipment (Electronics), that we currently have, such as calculators, mobile phones, TVs and such. Would simply carry on running.

The rest of the world, would have to then, massively step up electronics production.
Prices of electronic stuff, would probably increase dramatically, and take many years, or longer, to get anywhere close to the current, price levels.

But, pretty much life would just carry on.

So far, we have had things like RAM prices go through the roof, due to huge shortages. There was a time when hard disk prices, also went through the roof, due to terrible flooding where hard disks were mainly manufactured, in the world.

But it was not too bad, life carried on.

EDIT: China sells a lot of non-electronic goods as well, but I'm ignoring them here.
Eventually the electronic items will tend to wear out and break, over the next 5 or 10 years. But, hopefully the rest of the world will have caught up by then.

[james_s]

Not just electronic components, prices on *everything* would rise dramatically. If it happened suddenly like that the effects would probably be dramatic. Things like computers and especially mobile phones wear out or get broken regularly. Most of the parts to fix things come from China too, then there's all the other stuff. Industrial materials used to build structures of all types, furniture, dishes, bedding, clothes, billions and billions of dollars a year in goods of all types, even if production could ramp up elsewhere in record time there would be a massive backlog in no time.

[MK14]

You're right.
A probably too high percentage of world wide goods, across the spectrum, come from (made in) China.

I can't find the latest, exact figures. Different sources, give different percentages and methods of measurement.
But it seems to be in the 20% to 80% range, worryingly.

Yes, we have all our eggs in only one or too few, baskets.
Edit: Removed overly political comments.

[tautech]

You're right.
A too high percentage of world wide goods, across the spectrum, come from (made in) China.

I can't find the latest, exact figures. Different sources, give different percentages and methods of measurement.
But it seems to be in the 20% to 80% range, worryingly.

Yes, we have all our eggs in only one or too few, baskets.

And like this hasn't been the case for 40+ years ?
China is the new kid on the bock in terms of trade imbalance and if you want to know why read edy's post on the beginning of P3.
Our "LEADERS" have allowed this to happen by way of bowing to big business and their insatiable quest for increased profits to satisfy their investors...............YOU !
Such is human nature we all want a piece of the pie and a few $ invested in a Wall St favorite delivers.
WE are all responsible in some way for the current state of affairs but more than most our 'leaders' that we hoped to have put in office for their wisdom. 

[MK14]

And like this hasn't been the case for 40+ years ?
China is the new kid on the bock in terms of trade imbalance and if you want to know why read edy's post on the beginning of P3.
Our "LEADERS" have allowed this to happen by way of bowing to big business and their insatiable quest for increased profits to satisfy their investors...............YOU !
Such is human nature we all want a piece of the pie and a few $ invested in a Wall St favorite delivers.
WE are all responsible in some way for the current state of affairs but more than most our 'leaders' that we hoped to have put in office for their wisdom. 

I agree.
(Not being sarcastic, you are right). Yes, 0.0000001% of the problem is my fault.
But the thing is (just as you were saying).
0.0000001% x worlds-population + politicians contribution = 100% of the cause and problem.

[ocset]

We were talking about the Deutsche Mark not being a currency any more...in fact, it is very much still alive....
Please listen to 1:11 to 1:33 of this (only 20 seconds or so)


.....At the 1:11 point, it is pointed out that the Euro is 20% below the Deutsche Mark in 2015. (though not in those exact terms). This obviously helps German exports, compared to what it would be like if they still traded in the Deutsch Mark.

All the old European currencies still very much trade today...and this is so that they can quickly be brought back  if the EU collapses.

[Monkeh]

.....At the 1:11 point, it is pointed out that the Euro is 20% below the Deutsche Mark in 2015. (though not in those exact terms).

Not even remotely what he said (not that he's got a clue anyway), nor is it true. The exchange rate of the (non-legal-tender) DEM has been fixed for 20 years.

Why did I even bother looking at this thread, again?

[ocset]

Thanks, but it says that "Germany has a currency that is 20% undervalued"
...the "currency" being referred to is obviously the Euro.....
The "thing" that it is "undervalued" against is obviously the Deutsche Mark.
It couldnt be anything else in the context of that clip....its pointing out that Germany is now trading in a currency (the Euro), which is significantly undervalued compared to what it would be trading in if it was still with the DEM.

If its not referring to the DEM, then to what is it referring?

[MT]

Back in 2007-8 if you said, which some did, that Lehman Brothers could go bankrupt you where treated as an assclown,
financially retard, etc, suddenly "poff"  BL did and you then you turned into a senior guru with crystall ball.

Now when some folks say Goldman Sachs can go "poff" you are yet again an assclown , now GS was saved (some insiders say) by Obamas secret deal with the FEDS to print money (c:a 21 trillion who industrial complex snitched) as assclowns, will printing save GS this time?

Its pretty obvious if china decides to restrict west access cheap arse PCB EEVBLOG gooes ape!

[madires]

Just for the record: EUR 1 = DM 1.95583

I'd agree that the Euro as an European currency is under pressure of member countries with financial problems and that a "German Euro" would be rated higher. But you have to get the big picture. The Euro's value is based on the mix of member countries, e.g. financially successful ones, average countries and low performers. This makes our currency more stable, especially when situations change. Several years ago Germany had a problem with the 3% budget deficit (Maastricht treaty). The goal is stability on the long term. Populists hunt for the quick buck.

[Cerebus]

Oh goodness gracious me. Using a three year old clip of Nigel Farrago as the definitive reference for an implied fact? Especially one definitively wrong?

Farage is an asshat of the first order. Taking anything he says as anything more than the gibberings of a spent political has-been is foolish in the extreme.

The Deutsche Mark does not exist as legal tender any more. You cannot buy anything with Deutsche Mark, nothing is denominated in Deutsche Mark. You cannot trade in DM on any exchange. The only thing you can do with DM is, if you still have any notes or coins, go to a branch of the Bundesbank where they will give you €1 for every 1.95583 DM you give them - the irrevocable exchange rate that was fixed from 1 January 1999 onward. Thus there is no basis to decide what the value of even a 'virtual' DM is, because the value of currencies against others is set by currency trading and the DM is not traded.

You say:

All the old European currencies still very much trade today...and this is so that they can quickly be brought back  if the EU collapses.

O.K. Prove that you're not talking out of the top of your hat. Find and show to us a web page of some exchange that trades in, and offers current spot prices for the "old European currencies". Somewhere one can go and buy French Francs or Deutsche Mark. And for the avoidance of doubt I do NOT mean somewhere where one can buy old notes and coins of purely collectable value, but a proper, live, currency trading site.

[tggzzz]

We were talking about the Deutsche Mark not being a currency any more...in fact, it is very much still alive....
Please listen to 1:11 to 1:33 of this (only 20 seconds or so)


.....At the 1:11 point, it is pointed out that the Euro is 20% below the Deutsche Mark in 2015. (though not in those exact terms). This obviously helps German exports, compared to what it would be like if they still traded in the Deutsch Mark.

All the old European currencies still very much trade today...and this is so that they can quickly be brought back  if the EU collapses.

Can you please confirm that you are using a Nigel Farage statement as proof of a fact?

Let us all just pause, and think about the implications of that for how we should assess your other experiences that you have detailed in many threads!

[ocset]

OK thankyou...by the way, that wasnt me having a pop at Germany, who have acted perfectly above board........But it is strange that some countries like poor Greece went into the Euro....taken in by their own Greek leaders and without a referendum....poor Greece would never have gone bankrupt if it had stuck with the Drachma, any Greek will tell you that, as under the Drachma they would never have been able to borrow so much....i think its a basic fact of economics, that different countries, with very different economies, cannot possibly be each well served by a single currency with a single interest rate.
UK nearly joined the Euro..it would have finished us off......thank goodness we didnt and why did those British politicians want us in there?

[Rick Law]

...
...
I get the impression, that China's rise, is way, way past the point of critical mass, and is long past the point it could be realistically stopped by the West.

I suspect that even if the west grouped together, and completely stopped all trade with China. China's home market and all the other countries round the world, which would continue trading with China, would continue to propel its progress along.

Assuming, and hopefully no wars between Russia/China/North-Korea and the west, break out.
I assume that at some point, the west, will try and rebuild its industries, and become less and less dependent on China.
This might be sparked off by an out of control trade war between China and the US (Trump being a kind of loose cannon, or whatever the term should be for someone who might take the trade war too far and lose control of it), internal troubles in China, or simply the Chinese prices (sooner or later), becoming much higher than they are now.

I'm still not 100% convinced that China will make it to the very top of the powerful country, and technologically advanced tree, like the US has done and been for many decades or longer.
...
...
Because, sooner or later, the west will wise up to China's (rumoured) IP/patents/inventions/designs/copyright "stealing" antics, and stop/minimise/reduce the chances of the loss of IP, in the future.

China's rise is by no means "assured".  Look at your parts and Electronics.  I just got some HDD made in Vietnam.

Terms clarification first: Here "value" refers to manufacturing cost and similar and not moral-values.

Like all of us peoples, countries also climb the value chain.  Transition from low value to high value value is a difficult task for any country.  For China, it would certainly be uneven.  China's coast is already up there in cost and consumption, but the vast inland of China is still way back.  I would even guess: in some of the inland(s) of China, cost could be lower than places such as Vietnam.  The inland(s) just lack the infrastructure to capture those manufacturing now slipping to the lower cost countries.

I think the IP problem will solve itself.  As more of China reach similar or nearly similar living standards to the west (as coastal areas already are), they will have more of their own IP to protect.  That will drive overall IP enforcement.  The same applies to "copying" products.

Oh, don't spend too much time worrying about trade wars turning into real shooting wars.  Shooting wars are caused by mistakes - like mismatched expectations of reaction vs actual reaction.  The real hot (ie: dangerous) issue is not trade.  The "9 dash line" is probably a lot hotter than trade will ever be.  A discussion on that would belong to a political or international relationship forum instead of this one.

Edited: add the missed point about "copying" which I rolled into IP as they are similar.

[MK14]

China's rise is by no means "assured".  Look at your parts and Electronics.  I just got some HDD made in Vietnam.

Terms clarification first: Here "value" refers to manufacturing cost and similar and not moral-values.

Like all of us peoples, countries also climb the value chain.  Transition from low value to high value value is a difficult task for any country.  For China, it would certainly be uneven.  China's coast is already up there in cost and consumption, but the vast inland of China is still way back.  I would even guess: in some of the inland(s) of China, cost could be lower than places such as Vietnam.  The inland(s) just lack the infrastructure to capture those manufacturing now slipping to the lower cost countries.

I think the IP problem will solve itself.  As more of China reach similar or nearly similar living standards to the west (as coastal areas already are), they will have more of their own IP to protect.  That will drive overall IP enforcement.  The same applies to "copying" products.

Oh, don't spend too much time worrying about trade wars turning into real shooting wars.  Shooting wars are caused by mistakes - like mismatched expectations of reaction vs actual reaction.  The real hot (ie: dangerous) issue is not trade.  The "9 dash line" is probably a lot hotter than trade will ever be.  A discussion on that would belong to a political or international relationship forum instead of this one.

Edited: add the missed point about "copying" which I rolled into IP as they are similar.

I think China have done very well, so far, adding "value" to the country and feeding their population, which was not happening so well, a number of decades ago.

I'm pleased with what you say about the IP, and hope that happens. If China can reign in the IP/copyright thefts, that will be good. On the other hand, by the time they may do it, most of the IP will have been drained from the west, and so many things cloned/copied.
So it will be somewhat too late for the west.

I don't particularly like the US's patent system either. It seems to favour the very big companies, who can afford to take people to court over the patents.
The US patents, can be created too easily, even when the patent is blatantly WRONG. E.g. prior art, silly, too trivial etc. yet they still allow it to be patented.
I especially dislike patent trolls.

I hope that sooner or later, the world can come up with a patent system that works well for just about everyone, and yet stops patent trolls, and is suitable for businesses, regardless of how small or big they are.

Silly patents, are things like, Patent = "Buy it now button on a webpage". The patent trolls, then send out requests for say $100,000 to thousands of technology companies, in the knowledge that some of them will just pay the $100,000 rather than risk a multi-year, big hassle, (circa) $7,000,000 cost US court case. With potentially big fines as well, later.

[Rick Law]

...
...
I'm pleased with what you say about the IP, and hope that happens. If China can reign in the IP/copyright thefts, that will be good. On the other hand, by the time they may do it, most of the IP will have been drained from the west, and so many things cloned/copied.
So it will be somewhat too late for the west.

I don't particularly like the US's patent system either. It seems to favour the very big companies, who can afford to take people to court over the patents.
The US patents, can be created too easily, even when the patent is blatantly WRONG. E.g. prior art, silly, too trivial etc. yet they still allow it to be patented.
I especially dislike patent trolls.

I hope that sooner or later, the world can come up with a patent system that works well for just about everyone, and yet stops patent trolls, and is suitable for businesses, regardless of how small or big they are.

Silly patents, are things like, Patent = "Buy it now button on a webpage". The patent trolls, then send out requests for say $100,000 to thousands of technology companies, in the knowledge that some of them will just pay the $100,000 rather than risk a multi-year, big hassle, (circa) $7,000,000 cost US court case. With potentially big fines as well, later.

I am with you there.  We have to run faster than our competition.  We need to develop new knowledge faster that we loose them to the competition.  Given the way our universities and colleges have been focusing on everything else but real useful knowledge, I am less than optimistic unless changes begin.

We need to switch student grants and loans back dependent on the ability to repay.  I know grants doesn't need to repay, but they need to be on fields that has the ability to repay.  That will get rid of a lot of useless or low-value pursuits.

If I am king-for-a-day, I would get rid of all the courses that begin with the word "study..."  Like handling budget items, those that really need to be spend will be able to justify them when they request a re-open.

[MK14]

I am with you there.  We have to run faster than our competition.  We need to develop new knowledge faster that we loose them to the competition.  Given the way our universities and colleges have been focusing on everything else but real useful knowledge, I am less than optimistic unless changes begin.

We need to switch student grants and loans back dependent on the ability to repay.  I know grants doesn't need to repay, but they need to be on fields that has the ability to repay.  That will get rid of a lot of useless or low-value pursuits.

If I am king-for-a-day, I would get rid of all the courses that begin with the word "study..."  Like handling budget items, those that really need to be spend will be able to justify them when they request a re-open.

I am in big agreement with you. There shouldn't be the (somewhat widely believed thing), that almost everyone needs (and deserves) a degree in something.
About 30 to 50 years ago, only about 10% or 20% of the population, went for degrees. But that meant that society could afford the resources, to help those "bright/promising" people, to flourish and get a good degree.

These days, there seems to be a belief, that everyone can be a doctor (or whatever), regardless of background and abilities. I think the reality is that for some things, you need a certain level of intelligence, memory and other abilities. Combined with a decent upbringing, so that the person, will be able to sit down and study for long periods of time.
Hence they will be likely to succeed on the course and become a good doctor, or whatever the course is for.

Instead, some (including myself) think that qualifications, over the years have been "watered down", to cater for lower ability groups and people who pay little attention at school/college/university.
Giving almost everyone qualifications, means that those qualifications are no longer a good and useful marker for universities and businesses, to differentiate between good and not so good, future students and workers.

But it is a very complicated subject area, with lots of different opinions.