Well, to me this all looks more than obvious now that it's an artificially generated crisis. Until now, everything should have been stabilized IF they wanted.
Who are "they"? Semiconductor companies? They don't want to "fix" it, they are working as normal based on what was ordered. All new orders went to the end of the queue.
You need to understand that 52 week factory lead times were normal even before the crisis. You just were always observing the other end of that pipeline, because distributors managed their orders well, and there was no interruptions. But once you interrupt it by cancelling orders, you are in for a long wait.
There is nothing artificial about it.
Well, ok, another thing i bothering me.
Why are so many popular, not so sophisticated chips to manufacture out of stock?
When i read those policies, it's very clear that there is a
“technological cold war” going on.
USA/EU have pretty clear instructions (i'm not saying that there is anything wrong about that) to protect IP, increase investments, build fabs, protect technologies, keep the tech gap 2 generations apart from China etc.
In my understanding, in order to do that, it takes, time, money and it will also have to impact the cost as they will probably reduce export to CN (reduce a profit as a consequence), yet go into an investments. So, my expectation is that making this "out of stock" maneuver is not spontaneous market reaction but also buying time for some changes that should come.
I don't see any rushing to supplement the "out of stock" parts.
You are right, even in the strategy that i shared here, they claim that it's every 4-5 year cycle of parts being delayed or slowed down in manufacturing. However, i think that we have new political situation which fuels it more than purely technological reason.