UK forum members, BREXIT?

[Delta]

The British Prime minister (David Cameron) was keen to Remain.

Nah, Dave is a Brexiteer, as is Jezza.  They were both brow-beaten into pretending to want to stay.  They will both be pleased with this result. 

[MK14]

Bookmakers' odds DO NOT reflect the probability of an outcome.  They reflect how the bookie is needing to balance his book.

A bookie aims to have the correct amount of money on each outcome such as that he always makes a profit (due to the overround).  If too much money is going on result A, the odds are decreased to discourage money going that way, and increase on B to tempt money that way to balance the book.

Source.  My Uncle was a bookie all his life, I remember being taught this as a kid 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking

That's exactly what I thought. I've seen amazing horse racing mechanical (computer like) machines, which automatically make the adjustments to the "odds", during the betting, before races. (Probably a TV program).

tl;dr
It does NOT represent the true statistical probabilities.

[MK14]

The British Prime minister (David Cameron) was keen to Remain.

Nah, Dave is a Brexiteer, as is Jezza.  They were both brow-beaten into pretending to want to stay.  They will both be pleased with this result. 

I would NOT be surprised if Jezza wants to leave.

But surely Dave wants to remain.

E.g. Source:

EU referendum: I'm no secret Brexiteer, says David Cameron

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36396066

EDIT:
On the other hand. Some sources say/think he has been lying, about things like immigration (figures). So you could be right.

[grumpydoc]

I guess the end of the world is near

The potential downside if we go through with it is, ahem, rather large.

We could just have done the most monumentally stupid thing in recent political history.

[ez24]

Black Friday tomorrow 

[JPortici]

what if..
 

[Towger]

In the words of Anne Robinson ' Goodbye '.

BBC 4 Are busy going through who should resign, and if Scotland and Northern Ireland should have their own referendum to leave the UK.

Meanwhile I am getting push notifications from RTE that sterling has fallen to a 30+ year low.

Interesting time a head.

[Macbeth]

Please welcome us back Kiwis, Ozzies, and Hosers. Let's not forget the West Indies, Hong Kong, India, most of Africa, and all the other former colonies (USA too!). Let's get back to a commonwealth trading partnership without EU intervention. 

[tautech]

Please welcome us back Kiwis, Ozzies, and Hosers. Let's not forget the West Indies, Hong Kong, India, most of Africa, and all the other former colonies (USA too!). Let's get back to a commonwealth trading partnership without EU intervention. 

What have you got to offer.....not immigrants I hope. 
Better cars? 
Kate's sister. 

[Macbeth]

Please welcome us back Kiwis, Ozzies, and Hosers. Let's not forget the West Indies, Hong Kong, India, most of Africa, and all the other former colonies (USA too!). Let's get back to a commonwealth trading partnership without EU intervention. 

What have you got to offer.....not immigrants I hope. 
Better cars? 
Kate's sister. 

Dolly the sheep?

[Mr.B]

^ Crash.

(Is this the one word game?)

[Brumby]

Bookmakers' odds DO NOT reflect the probability of an outcome.  They reflect how the bookie is needing to balance his book.

A bookie aims to have the correct amount of money on each outcome such as that he always makes a profit (due to the overround).  If too much money is going on result A, the odds are decreased to discourage money going that way, and increase on B to tempt money that way to balance the book.

Source.  My Uncle was a bookie all his life, I remember being taught this as a kid 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking

Bookies.... Insurance companies.... it's all the same.  They have a business to run.  Since it all revolves around money. they must make sure they make a profit no matter which way events unfold.

I thought it was obvious any outcome was not - and could not be - influenced by the location of money.

[Brumby]

Never seen a McLaren 650S ?

Only on Top Gear. 

[tautech]

Please welcome us back Kiwis, Ozzies, and Hosers. Let's not forget the West Indies, Hong Kong, India, most of Africa, and all the other former colonies (USA too!). Let's get back to a commonwealth trading partnership without EU intervention. 

What have you got to offer.....not immigrants I hope. 
Better cars? 
Kate's sister. 

Never seen a McLaren 650S ?

Probably have with Clarkson's fat bum in it.

[Macbeth]

I'm hoping all those 9 out of 10 economists that predicted much needed insane house price falls due to brexit are right...  But I'm not holding my breath

I wonder if the remain politicos pushing that one really thought it was a good way of swaying the vote their way... Shows how out of touch they are... Normal people don't think insane house prices are good because they have to live in them and have to pay more to move into new ones. Their kids can't afford to move out.

Only feckless fuckwits who use the house as a line of credit and the brilliant rentier class "entrepreneurs" think insane house prices are a good thing.

[vodka]

This a golden opportunity for giving shelter to corporation who following to trade with CEE.

Spain are sold 

[zapta]

Money

The worst it get, the better excuse the politicians will have to not actually enact an exit (remember, this is an advisory referendum). There is a clear interest for some forces to make it as bad as possible to drive a point. We had something similar here with budget sequestration in 2013.

This battle was won but the war is not over yet.

Anyway, hats off to the British people for the courage to defend the sovereignty of their country once again, this time despite their leaders.

[grumpydoc]

I'm hoping all those 9 out of 10 economists that predicted much needed insane house price falls due to brexit are right...  But I'm not holding my breath

I wonder if the remain politicos pushing that one really thought it was a good way of swaying the vote their way... Shows how out of touch they are... Normal people don't think insane house prices are good because they have to live in them and have to pay more to move into new ones. Their kids can't afford to move out.

Only feckless fuckwits who use the house as a line of credit and the brilliant rentier class "entrepreneurs" think insane house prices are a good thing.

Oh, house prices will fall allright.

They will fall because of the huge recession that we have just imposed upon ourselves - in a recession no one much wants to move unless they have to and low demand leads to low prices.

That is not the same as solving the housing crisis FFS.

[Kjelt]

In any case this is a big signal to the EU that they should think about the future and that a lot of people are fed up with their unlimited expansion and ambitions without consolidating now and then. There are indeed enough problems as is and a strong country like the Uk leaving will not make it easier.
The negotiations for leaving will not become easy since it probably will be used as a signal back to other eu countries not to consider to leave as well which would be a poor blackmail scam if you ask me personally.

[Delta]

Oh, house prices will fall allright.

They will fall because of the huge recession that we have just imposed upon ourselves - in a recession no one much wants to move unless they have to and low demand leads to low prices.

That is not the same as solving the housing crisis FFS.

Oh get a grip of yourself. FFS.

[jancumps]

EU members announced they'll hold the first meetings without UK on the summit next week.

[Brumby]

EU members announced they'll hold the first meetings without UK on the summit next week.

Seems a bit premature, doesn't it?

The vote is one thing - but they haven't left yet.


.... or am I missing something?

[Macbeth]

Oh, house prices will fall allright.

They will fall because of the huge recession that we have just imposed upon ourselves - in a recession no one much wants to move unless they have to and low demand leads to low prices.

That is not the same as solving the housing crisis FFS.

The only recession that can possibly happen is the one you talk yourself into. George Osborne came up with an absurd "budget" - thankfully not one we have to vote for. But the markets appear to (for these couple of days) be playing along with his retarded fear mongering.

Clearly we have to get rid of shitty prime ministers and chancellors who have no idea how to run the country post a democratic withdrawal from the EU.

Meanwhile - every person, every business carries on as usual... All these Etonian political primadonnas really are just highly paid window dressing to the rest of the real world. Trade will carry on as usual. Even when it is declared by Rompuy & EU co as illegal, it will still carry on unimpeded (except in Germany - we have many accounts of the Gestapo customs there). I mean just like nobody stops anything from China despite a CE or C.E mark

[Kjelt]

Seems a bit premature, doesn't it?
The vote is one thing - but they haven't left yet.
... or am I missing something?

Probably they want to meet and discuss what the next steps are and perhaps already a forecast for the conditions they are going to impose upon the UK for leaving.
They have to have consensus between themselves first before they can offer it to the UK.

[grumpydoc]

The only recession that can possibly happen is the one you talk yourself into. George Osborne came up with an absurd "budget" - thankfully not one we have to vote for. But the markets appear to (for these couple of days) be playing along with his retarded fear mongering.

That is true of any recession.

I hope that you are right - that it is just an over-reaction and that the markets will correct in a few days, but it is not clear to me that is all it will take.

We will see what Cameron says in his statement. I don't see that he can survive as PM for very long but I really don't fancy the alternatives.

EDIT: Oh, that was prescient. I just saw that he has resigned.