UK forum members, BREXIT?

[zapta]

Any guesstimates when the preliminary results will be in? if both sides are about 50% I'm guessing it can take all night?

Yes, all night, results Friday morning. No exit polls.

[jancumps]

First poll on Belgian radio:52% remain

[jancumps]

Second poll: 54% remain

[MK14]

LEAVE is in the lead by 3,207 votes out of hundreds of thousands of votes. But LEAVE is probably looking in the lead, so far.

[zapta]

LEAVE is in the lead by 3,207 votes out of hundreds of thousands of votes. But LEAVE is probably looking in the lead, so far.

As expected by the betting odds > 75% for Remain.

[MK14]

LEAVE is in the lead by 3,207 votes out of hundreds of thousands of votes. But LEAVE is probably looking in the lead, so far.

As expected by the betting odds > 75% for Remain.

Who cares about the betting odds ?

My result (50.5% LEAVE), is the ACTUAL vote counts (so far).

It is still TOO CLOSE to call reliably, so we will have to see . . . ..........

[MK14]

Now REMAIN is back in the lead. (By almost 20K votes)
We will have to just wait and see.

EDIT:
Now LEAVE is back in the lead.

[dannyf]

Exciting to watch, I have to say.

The Trump-Clinton fight is also going to be interesting too.

[mtdoc]

No need to watch the polls, just watch THIS and you'll know the up to date direction that the vote is swinging. Click on the "1" in the top left corner of the chart to get the 1 minute candle view.

[Brumby]

A new EU proposal calls for taxing automation:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-robotics-lawmaking-idUSKCN0Z72AY

Oh, bloody marvellous. Please, someone show these people around a factory before they start trying to decide that a "robot" is a new thing that can be taxed and regulated.

It'll be like a biologist trying to define what is alive and what isn't. Is a CNC mill a robot? Or a pick & place machine? Or does it have to have red glowing eyes and demand your clothes, your boots and your motorcycle?

Maybe if we ever get to the "Bicentennial Man" level they could look at social security - but there's a whole sheaf of issues there.

As for taxing automation, per se, the only reason I can think of is to fund unemployment benefits and retraining for human jobs that have been replaced by automation.  Seems a bit of a cop out to me.  Creating new jobs is way better.  That's not easy - but, then, life is a challenge.

[MT]

I note that our informal poll is now showing a slight preference to remain, although our European colleagues still want rid of us

Talking of the Ex-Pats I wonder how well they have been represented in the opinion polls so far. One would assume that Brits living in Europe would be heavily biased towards remaining in the EU. Not least of which because of fears that their residency status would become uncertain - my understanding is that they would retain their residency rights but this has come up once or twice in the debate.

However many there are, be it 700,000 or 300,000 in Spain, 170,000 in France, 100,000 in Germany etc.  there are certainly enough to swing a 50:50 vote in the UK to a decent "Remain" majority overall.

Gibraltars: only 823 for leave! Falklands perhaps are more of a vote in for Argentina!

Check out the peculiar poll stations! brilliant!   ............Forged pens! 

Concerns: A poll released this week revealed that many Leave campaigners fear that today's referendum is rigged against them - so many are bringing their own pens

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3655775/The-polls-finally-open-Britain-s-historic-Referendum-vote-latest-polls-Remain-camp-lead-six-points-weather-swing-Brexit.html



 

[gnavigator1007]

Anybody else watching via brexitclub.eu?  Interesting discussion so far

[zapta]

Who cares about the betting odds ?

My result (50.5% LEAVE), is the ACTUAL vote counts (so far).

It is still TOO CLOSE to call reliably, so we will have to see . . . ..........

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

[MK14]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

The point is/was that BETTING is a POOR way of judging the outcome.
It shows what people THINK will happen, rather than statistically analyzing (e.g. Polls), what is likely to happen.

[Corporate666]

Looking like a Brexit it is.

Of course it could change, but around 04:00 GMT, some of the big cities are in (Edinburgh, which is most of Scotland) and turnout has been lower than expected in the remain areas, and win margins have been lower.

On the flip side, in places like Newcastle, the vote was MUCH closer than expected, and in some leave areas, the win was by a substantially higher margin than expected.

News reports from some insiders are that the UK gov't is anticipating an Brexit win, and on the BBC news they are reporting the leave campaign are saying they believe they have likely won.

The big unknown is London - where a huge number of the population of Britain lives.  That outweighs Scotland, Wales and all the non-contiguous lands.  On the other hand, Northern England has swung Brexit quite a lot harder than it was expected.

[zapta]

The point is/was that BETTING is a POOR way of judging the outcome.
It shows what people THINK will happen, rather than statistically analyzing (e.g. Polls), what is likely to happen.

The polls are already factored in the betting odds.

[MK14]

The point is/was that BETTING is a POOR way of judging the outcome.
It shows what people THINK will happen, rather than statistically analyzing (e.g. Polls), what is likely to happen.

The polls are already factored in the betting odds.

I'm NOT a big fan of betting odds.

It was realized and generally accepted, that in this case the polls were too close to call (before the day of voting), so there was not really a reliable source of information (BEFOREHAND), as regards the overall outcome. (Assuming time machines etc are not applicable).
tl;dr
Polls were just about neck and neck, so overall result was both unknown and difficult to predict. Although Remain was a tiny/small fraction ahead in the polls, typically.

Even now (this exact second), although Leave/Brexit is winning. It is still NOT certain.
But probably Leave/Brexit will win, I guess.

[Macbeth]

No need to watch the polls, just watch THIS and you'll know the up to date direction that the vote is swinging. Click on the "1" in the top left corner of the chart to get the 1 minute candle view.

Fucking hell, I'm only glad I got some gold in the swiss bullionvault to counteract this huge drop... 1.50 to 1.35 !!! crazy! Meanwhile betfair was really slow on the uptake with 1.5 for remain vs 3 for leave. I did gamble a few quid on brexit a good week ago.

Just checked and remain is now 10.0 remain vs 1.1 on betfair so they have finally woke up!

Haha! Take that Rompuy and your unleaded solder!

[MK14]

It's OFFICIAL now. (Source BBC live).

Leave/Brexit has won.

Remain CAN'T win now, as it can't have enough votes.

EDIT: Or I'm misunderstanding. The BBC forecasts that Leave/Brexit has won.

[tautech]

It's OFFICIAL now. (Source BBC live).

Leave/Brexit has won.

Remain CAN'T win now, as it can't have enough votes.

First looked at this thread today and it's 37 pages. 

I clearly remember the disgust of my parents and grandparents 45+ years ago when the UK joined the EEC, then  many of the primary producers in NZ felt disgusted too having supported the mother country in 2 world wars we felt abandoned and our exports to the UK diminished over the decades to the point that even now they are less than they were decades ago. There were some small benefits for us, we were no longer obliged to import crappy British cars in the numbers of before.
Now the UK's experiment seems over    and european domination has not eventuated I wonder where their allegiances will lie now. 

[mtdoc]

A few days ago the head of political betting at Ladbrokes said the betting odds were being skewed by a smaller number but much larger sized bets on remain. 75% of money was on remain but much more were betting on Leave - so that may explain some of the discrepancy.

If this result holds it remains to seen if Brexit actually happens. Remember the Greeks voted for a Grexit...

Regardless, the reaction of the financial markets lays bare the larger issue here:  Despite the focus of the media on the immigration issue, the real issue for the elites is that a Brexit means they are losing control of the masses and their ability to control commerce and capital. If Brexit happens it will likely mean the beginning of the end of ability of the ECB (and US Fed as well) to control and contain events.  Whether you see that as a good or bad thing depends on your perspective - -  tolerance for short term economic pain in order to preserve the longer term viability of free markets versus hoping that the last 8 years of debt fueled monetary kool-aid will somehow be able to be maintained indefinitely.

I'm in the former camp.

[MK14]

First looked at this thread today and it's 37 pages. 

I clearly remember the disgust of my parents and grandparents 45+ years ago when the UK joined the EEC, then  many of the primary producers in NZ felt disgusted too having supported the mother country in 2 world wars we felt abandoned and our exports to the UK diminished over the decades to the point that even now they are less than they were decades ago. There were some small benefits for us, we were no longer obliged to import crappy British cars in the numbers of before.
Now the UK's experiment seems over    and european domination has not eventuated I wonder where their allegiances will lie now. 

Yes, I'm embarrassed with how terrible some of those early cars were. Apparently it was a combination of bad management and the work force being very dis-interested in doing a good job (some blame the unions).

This result may change future allegiances, so maybe New Zealand will benefit from this.

[MK14]

If this result holds it remains to seen if Brexit actually happens. Remember the Greeks voted for a Grexit...

It would not surprise me either.

The vote (so far), is rather close (probably less than 52% (approx) leave), and it is badly damaging to the EU. The British Prime minister (David Cameron) was keen to Remain.

So there could be some kind of attempt to keep the EU together, maybe with new offers/changes or something. Because the EU is also worried that other major EU player countries may also get referendums, which may also choose to leave. Potentially dramatically changing the EU.

[Delta]

Bookmakers' odds DO NOT reflect the probability of an outcome.  They reflect how the bookie is needing to balance his book.

A bookie aims to have the correct amount of money on each outcome such as that he always makes a profit (due to the overround).  If too much money is going on result A, the odds are decreased to discourage money going that way, and increase on B to tempt money that way to balance the book.

Source.  My Uncle was a bookie all his life, I remember being taught this as a kid 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookmaking

[ez24]

I guess the end of the world is near