UK forum members, BREXIT?

[rstofer]

Still you can't deny the fact that it is more difficult to trade with a country which has a wildly fluctuating currency versus your own. I have some UK customers and suppliers and the fact they are using pounds makes doing business riskier because I can't tell how much I will make on a project exactly. If a Brexit increases the pound versus euro volatility doing business will be harder and there will probably be more tax paperwork to fill out as well if the UK exits from the EU. All in all I think a Brexit will be a step back for me.

By all means don't do business outside the Eurozone if you're that worried.

Why someone should believe in UK and not worry? Want to deal (read subsidize)  with UK supplier if it becomes easier/better to deal somewhere else? Say there is supplier in Sweden, now it's 10% more expensive than someone in UK. Given all other things being about the same sure I will sure choose the deal from UK. Then after brexit, UK and Swedish suppliers still offer the same price but now UK is a pain in the ass. So for example, I still can get VAT back, but I would need to pay customs tax which can vary from small to not so small depending on the goods and which I won't be able to claim back. So given the paperwork, worrying that something will bounce at the customs, delayed delivery and say 5% customs tax, I will just say fuck it and go to Swedish supplier which now is just 5% more expensive to me but order of magnitude easier to deal with. No offence, just business.
But if there will be some trade agreement with no customs tax, then I don't know what the point was to brexit in the first place because it will be Pyrrhic victory for UK. Need to apply to the same rules as before just without any saying anymore.

How did it work before the EU?  It'll probably be a lot like that.  Either the EU and UK will come to terms or they won't.  Somehow, the US, UK and EU have terms and they seem to be mostly workable.

Sure, being inside the EU will lead to buying from inside the EU.  But that's only part of the story!  The UK product will cost more due to tariffs but guess what?  The EU product will just rise in cost until it all equals out.  Nobody is going to get a bargain!  What possible motivation would a EU company have to keep their prices below the import price of the same UK product.  All other factors (quality, features, etc) being equal...

[Corporate666]

Still you can't deny the fact that it is more difficult to trade with a country which has a wildly fluctuating currency versus your own. I have some UK customers and suppliers and the fact they are using pounds makes doing business riskier because I can't tell how much I will make on a project exactly. If a Brexit increases the pound versus euro volatility doing business will be harder and there will probably be more tax paperwork to fill out as well if the UK exits from the EU. All in all I think a Brexit will be a step back for me.

Wildly fluctuating, yes - but I don't expect the pound and the euro to fluctuate wildly.  They will find their relative levels and changes will tend to be slow and gradual in response to macro economic events.

It tends to be a much larger problem for long term purchases/investments, such as contracts for fuel purchases or partial payments for long lead-time projects.

But there are hedge mechanisms available for most all of that, and in the case of small business, currency conversions are trivial and if there are legitimate concerns about long-term volatility, stipulations to pay in local currency can be put in place.

[wraper]

I have always wondered why the US puts up with so much crap from the EU and retaliates so little.

On this side of globe I see it completely opposite way. And don't get why we act as sockpuppets of US when it obviously is against our own interests. For example, US wanted to get rid of Gaddaffi and Assad. Well good for them (because they are far far away) but not for us because we are those who are nearby and now need deal with consequences. Or say Nulland Cookies in Ukraine. Then after that democratization of Ukrainian regime have gone haywire, sanctions against Russia and Retaliation sanctions from them. US basically forced EU to put those sanctions and that has bad impact only on EU and Russia but not on US, because US have not much of trade with Russia unlike us. Interesting what US would say if say Russia or China would start democratize Mexico or Canada under US border?

[wraper]

What possible motivation would a EU company have to keep their prices below the import price of the same UK product.  All other factors (quality, features, etc) being equal...

50+ % of UK export goes into EU. UK is less than 10% of of EU export/import. So now think who have more possibilities to deal with someone else and internal competition as well.

[Corporate666]

Except when Holland leaves EU too (I mean, they kick out the EU bureaucrats)
Imagine to have to deal with extra paperwork, banking costs and exhance rate fluctuations just to do some business with one of those remaining overpriced bigstate EU countries.

Banking costs are a non-issue.   Pay using PayPal and the currency is automatically converted.  Same if you pay by credit card.  Fee is no different than it is for other transactions, generally speaking.

As for paperwork, it's up to each country and within the control of each country to handle their paperwork burden.  It would be a fantastic opportunity for a nation like the UK to streamline their processes.  It's gotten better over the years, but it's not perfect.  Having said that, I ship stuff around the world and shipping to the UK or EU or Canada is only fractionally more difficult than shipping within the USA.  All that is required for postal shipment is a description, a value and a country of origin - 3 lines on an online form.

It does get more difficult for freight, UPS, high value and the like, but all of those hurdles are put in place by the receiving country and they are perfectly capable of trimming it down.

And trimming it down to the bare minimum should be a top priority if the UK does vote for leave the EU (and should be a priority for any country who wants to get ahead on international trade).

[Corporate666]

But if there will be some trade agreement with no customs tax, then I don't know what the point was to brexit in the first place because it will be Pyrrhic victory for UK. Need to apply to the same rules as before just without any saying anymore.

That's kind of the point - there doesn't need "everything else" that goes along with EU membership (open borders, immigrant immigration, subjugation to EU technocrats) in order to implement a free trade program.

Part of the selling point of the EU is that free trade is good.  If that's the case, then of course the EU would want to have free trade with the UK.  The only reason not to would be out of spite, and politics generally doesn't happen on the basis of spite (regardless of how it's threatened before the fact).  So the UK can leave and just implement virtually the same trade deal they had the moment before they left. 

[wraper]

That's kind of the point - there doesn't need "everything else" that goes along with EU membership (open borders, immigrant immigration, subjugation to EU technocrats)

There are no open borders with UK in the first place. Also migration from EU is highly overrated either.

subjugation to EU technocrats

If there will be trade agreement even remotely similar to what is now, EU technocrats won't be gone anywhere, only that UK won't have any saying.

[wraper]

Banking costs are a non-issue.   Pay using PayPal and the currency is automatically converted.

Yeah and they will take their fair share of 7-10% (transaction fee which apperant for the seller + conversion which is apperant for the buyer) . Not suitable for big orders either, I can send the right currency in bank transfer too. Talking was about exchange rate fluctuations too BTW.
EDIT: in most cases expect at least 10% in total if the seller is not a big business with reduced fees. PayPal exchange rate is among the worst.

[wraper]

How did it work before the EU?  It'll probably be a lot like that.  Either the EU and UK will come to terms or they won't.  Somehow, the US, UK and EU have terms and they seem to be mostly workable.

Apparently not so well if UK decided to join the EU.

[zapta]

How did it work before the EU?  It'll probably be a lot like that.  Either the EU and UK will come to terms or they won't.  Somehow, the US, UK and EU have terms and they seem to be mostly workable.

Apparently not so well if UK decided to join the EU.

You need to revisit the promises and FUD from that time. Don't assume that the process then was somehow perfect.

[mtdoc]

With the British Pound jumping over 200 pips (a big move) against the US Dollar today (and US market futures also up)- the market seems to have decided that as of right of now, exit is low probability - despite opinion polls.  What does the market know that the people don't?

[ez24]

I have always wondered why the US puts up with so much crap from the EU and retaliates so little.

On this side of globe I see it completely opposite way. And don't get why we act as sockpuppets of US when it obviously is against our own interests. For example, US wanted to get rid of Gaddaffi and Assad. Well good for them (because they are far far away) but not for us because we are those who are nearby and now need deal with consequences. Or say Nulland Cookies in Ukraine. Then after that democratization of Ukrainian regime have gone haywire, sanctions against Russia and Retaliation sanctions from them. US basically forced EU to put those sanctions and that has bad impact only on EU and Russia but not on US, because US have not much of trade with Russia unlike us. Interesting what US would say if say Russia or China would start democratize Mexico or Canada under US border?

Because of the many many US screw ups, if the US says stay then, to me, they should leave. 

[Corporate666]

There are no open borders with UK in the first place. Also migration from EU is highly overrated either.

The UK is not part of the schengen agreement, but citizens of EU countries do have the right to come/go from the UK to work and live at will.  Substantially more EU citizens go to the UK than go out of the UK.

If there will be trade agreement even remotely similar to what is now, EU technocrats won't be gone anywhere, only that UK won't have any saying.

Of course they will.  Right now, the UK is one voice of many when it comes to technocrats.  In a post-Brexit trade negotiation, they are one voice of two at the table.  As the second largest economy of the EU, it's not like the EU can afford to tell Britain to piss off, nor would they want to.

[Corporate666]

Yeah and they will take their fair share of 7-10% (transaction fee which apperant for the seller + conversion which is apperant for the buyer) . Not suitable for big orders either, I can send the right currency in bank transfer too. Talking was about exchange rate fluctuations too BTW.
EDIT: in most cases expect at least 10% in total if the seller is not a big business with reduced fees. PayPal exchange rate is among the worst.

No, they do not take 7-10%.  They add a margin on top of the interbank rate, but you can also elect to pay in the seller's currency, which means your bank is the one handling the currency conversion instead of PayPal.

But it's false to chalk this up as a Brexit issue because Britain already uses a different currency.  So in that respect, nothing will change other than possibly the GBP/Euro rate would be more volatile - but that's just speculation.

[Brumby]

OK - Here's a question that may be relevant to the rest of the world....

How will Britain's exiting from or staying in the EU affect other non-EU countries?

As an example - how might it affect exchange rates between the USA and Australia?  Do I, as an Aussie, buy stuff from the USA now ... or wait until later?


The global community and global economy are quite significant these days - far more so than 100 years ago.

[tggzzz]

With the British Pound jumping over 200 pips (a big move) against the US Dollar today (and US market futures also up)- the market seems to have decided that as of right of now, exit is low probability - despite opinion polls.  What does the market know that the people don't?

A: nothing.

Q: Why nothing?
A: You misunderstand of the markets. They don't bet on what they think will happen in the economy. They bet on what they think other market traders think will happen in the economy.

[mtdoc]

With the British Pound jumping over 200 pips (a big move) against the US Dollar today (and US market futures also up)- the market seems to have decided that as of right of now, exit is low probability - despite opinion polls.  What does the market know that the people don't?

A: nothing.

Q: Why nothing?
A: You misunderstand of the markets. They don't bet on what they think will happen in the economy. They bet on what they think other market traders think will happen in the economy.

Perhaps I should have worded it differently. After years of active trading - making and losing many thousands - i know as well and anyone that the market is not always right.  But the fact remains that the divergence between the recent opinion polls and the market's change since the Cox murder is curious and unexplained. Obviously we'll know more soon.

[NivagSwerdna]

But the fact remains that the divergence between the recent opinion polls and the market's change since the Cox murder is curious and unexplained.

Not really. Overall volatility is very high, e.g. CDS Spread on UK debt is at levels twice it was in January.  BrExit or BrRemain is a discontinuity, there will be wild swings until it becomes a certainty.
Sadly, I think the actions of one man have provided a back-drop that will be exploited to paint any BrExit supporter as 'a hater', 'xenophobic', etc and although that will not change the core support it will be enough to swing the undecided voter.  What is more ironic is that it provides a boost to the group that did their utmost to suppress freedom of speech at the recent thames demo.   That's politics/history I guess 

[nctnico]

Something else popped into my mind: how about CE when dealing with the UK in case of a Brexit? If the UK leaves the EU and I buy things from the UK I'll become the importer so I'm liable for any EMC and safety issues so basically I'd have to ask the supplier to go through a certification process and produce the paperwork instead of self-certification. The other way around is the same. And what will the UK regulations be?

What do you do about products you buy from the US?  CE is self-certification from our companies as well.

With products from outside the EU the importer becomes liable so a smart importer makes sure he gets documents from a qualified testing facility which proof the product has been tested. So in general the self-certification is a no-go for imported stuff.

[nctnico]

Still you can't deny the fact that it is more difficult to trade with a country which has a wildly fluctuating currency versus your own. I have some UK customers and suppliers and the fact they are using pounds makes doing business riskier because I can't tell how much I will make on a project exactly. If a Brexit increases the pound versus euro volatility doing business will be harder and there will probably be more tax paperwork to fill out as well if the UK exits from the EU. All in all I think a Brexit will be a step back for me.

Wildly fluctuating, yes - but I don't expect the pound and the euro to fluctuate wildly.  They will find their relative levels and changes will tend to be slow and gradual in response to macro economic events.

Not really. I have seen the euro/pound move wildly (20% or so) over the timeframe of just a few months. Just look at the graphs of the exchange rate!

[nctnico]

Except when Holland leaves EU too (I mean, they kick out the EU bureaucrats)
Imagine to have to deal with extra paperwork, banking costs and exhance rate fluctuations just to do some business with one of those remaining overpriced bigstate EU countries.

Banking costs are a non-issue.   Pay using PayPal and the currency is automatically converted.  Same if you pay by credit card.  Fee is no different than it is for other transactions, generally speaking.

Using Paypal for a business transaction of several $k   The piss-poor exchange rate Paypal offers makes the cost of a wire transfer look like peanuts in comparison.

[TheAmmoniacal]

I am wishing for a brexit just so I can see the action 

[grumpydoc]

Banking costs are a non-issue.   Pay using PayPal and the currency is automatically converted.  Same if you pay by credit card.  Fee is no different than it is for other transactions, generally speaking.

If you enter into an inter-currency transaction where an automatic conversion is applied then you will, to one degree or another, get fleeced. Either by the transaction charge  or by an overly large dealing spread on the conversion or possibly both.

The banks remain less than transparent on this one although it is a bit better than it used to be as it is now possible to get something much closer to the market rate on relatively small amounts of money through specialist brokers or alternative outfits such as TransferWise.

But for the odd, infrequent, transaction the actual difference is going to be pretty small and the convenience likely to be worth it. However if you are doing it regularly then the best way is to establish an account in the "other" currency and transfer funds to it via a broker. That also has the advantage of fixing the rate and also dampening out short term fluctuations in rates.

A: You misunderstand of the markets. They don't bet on what they think will happen in the economy. They bet on what they think other market traders think will happen in the economy.

Well, not exactly. For one thing they are mostly all using the same models and the same data so it amounts to much the same thing.

I think the reality is somewhat more complex - nothing gets a trader fired up more than thinking they have a better handle on future market movements than their compatriots so I think I would say that a trader bets not only on what s/he thinks the market will do but also on the difference between that and what s/he thinks the other traders think that the market will do.

[zapta]

The betting odds for Leave got even lower at 10/3 (was 9/4).

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

If you are for Remain, it's time to bet on Leave, to hedge your disappointment in case Leave wins.

[amiq]

Project fear on both sides, I supose both camps tried to use the Unionist tactics from the Scottish referendum.  The majority of the English participents  in this thread are belching win'.

This is a short summary of the consequences of leaving from Professor Michael Dougan of the University of Liverpool.
https://youtu.be/AQanMs2Pskc

And a short guide to the structure of the EU from Scotland in Europe.
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/alynsmith/pages/2336/attachments/original/1464942911/WBB-download.pdf