UK forum members, BREXIT?

[Marco]

And over half of them is due to our colonial heritage. (Not a history to be proud of.)

It's a mixed bag, in the latter stages of colonization I think you could argue it ended up being highly beneficial and in many cases ended too abruptly.

For instance, I wish we had not allowed ourselves to be bribed into abandoning Maluku. It should have been a separate country.

[Kjelt]

I had a long conversation with someone yesterday on this very topic. He's sense is that the european (continent) investments in London (we were talking mostly about the financial services industry) is due to what the city has to offer, not because UK/London being part of the EU. As such, he believes that the investments will likely continue, without substantial declines as others have suggested.
I tend to agree with that assessment.

Interesting, the stockmarkets do not agree and the banks are preparing for a move probably towards Luxembourg or some other financial paradise inside the EU, at least that is the news we are hearing.
It is not as much the EU or britisch/scottisch banks ofcourse but the big international banks that want to be in the EU for their business that are moving. We'll see what happens, again who knows really?

[dannyf]

Yes, the banks are preparing for contingency plans. and I think you should expect, over a long period of time (3 - 5 years), as the UK government negotiates with the EU for market accesses, additional barriers will come up.

It is pre-mature to claim whether the UK (or the continent) will be worse off because of that. A much harder question that many people are trying to find out is if there exists sectors or locales that are to benefit from brexit.

The whole thing is quite interesting from a macro-investing perspective, as the range and severity of outcome are extreme and unprecedented.

[Kjelt]

Yesterday on the news a UK farmer that wanted to leave the EU although she receives directly 45k GBP a year subsidy from the EU.
Still she wants to leave, well that is someone at least that has it hopefully figured out, although I wonder what her prices will look like in a year.

[Howardlong]

I had a long conversation with someone yesterday on this very topic. He's sense is that the european (continent) investments in London (we were talking mostly about the financial services industry) is due to what the city has to offer, not because UK/London being part of the EU. As such, he believes that the investments will likely continue, without substantial declines as others have suggested.
I tend to agree with that assessment.

Interesting, the stockmarkets do not agree and the banks are preparing for a move probably towards Luxembourg or some other financial paradise inside the EU, at least that is the news we are hearing.
It is not as much the EU or britisch/scottisch banks ofcourse but the big international banks that want to be in the EU for their business that are moving. We'll see what happens, again who knows really?

Those were exactly the fears stated two decades ago about the UK's retiscence about the Euro, with the grim reaper taking all the filthy lucre to Frankfurt. There was plenty on uncertainty for a while. Stories of fund managers and hedgies going to Zurich (er, well, the astute will see that that's not in the EU either). Nothing could have been further from the truth, in fact quite the opposite.

Indeed, as you say, who knows really?

[Marco]

Stock markets are small potatos.  As for banks. I don't know if even Luxemburg will give them their own little semi-private police force to harass people with, or has a large enough economy to convincingly limit counterparty risk of "too big to fail" entities.

Brexit leaves the UK financial industry with no options remotely as good as the City and the UK were ... you'd almost feel sorry for them.

[Howardlong]

Stock markets are small potatos.  As for banks. I don't know if even Luxemburg will give them their own little semi-private police force to harass people with, or has a large enough economy to convincingly limit counterparty risk of "too big to fail" entities.

Brexit leaves the UK financial industry with no options remotely as good as the City and the UK were ... you'd almost feel sorry for them.

Which is why it will largely be business as usual.

The reason for market dips is not on value, it's on uncertainty, and a Brexit certainly brings that, which is why perversely the markets rallied on the deeply regretable and unfortunate death of MP Jo Cox yesterday who was a remain supporter and campaigner, seeing it as a motivator to improve the remain vote.

[NivagSwerdna]

Brexit leaves the UK financial industry with no options remotely as good as the City and the UK were ... you'd almost feel sorry for them.

Is that why Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan gave £500,000 each to the remain campaign or were they just being public spirited?

[Howardlong]

The perp had known mental problems. It is exceptionally lazy and unhelpful to assume that all those who vote in a certain way in this referendum share the same deranged ideology.

In addition, there is as yet no official connection drawn between the acts of this nutter and the Brexit campaigns, and much as it is easy to draw conclusions from hearsay, I suggest that it should be treated as that.

Washington post is a well respected paper, a US of A paper mind you! Try to fade him away as a  basic UK nutter is extremely lame!

One thing I am sure of is that the UK electorate will deal with a rather more informed and rational view than a foreign journalist making a few dollars from a few column inches, especially bearing in mind the gravity of what just happened.

In fact possibly the worst thing in the view of the Remain faction is foreign opinion trying to dictate a position on national sovereignty, and understandably so, they would only be preaching to the converted, so what's the point? The other side will innevitably see them as biased individuals and if not discount them completely, and positively vote against them. After all, what would you think if you were in the same position?

[Howardlong]

Brexit leaves the UK financial industry with no options remotely as good as the City and the UK were ... you'd almost feel sorry for them.

Is that why Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan gave £500,000 each to the remain campaign or were they just being public spirited?

If they really meant that they'd be spending a lot more an that. That's a low ball bonus for one employee.

[doobedoobedo]

Well it's certainly refreshing to hear all the doom-mongering from our European mainland cousins.

I've been speaking to my European colleagues, one brands anyone who wishes to leave a racist, no matter their reason, declares that it's a personal affront and storms off in a huff.

Another says that there will be a war and when asked who would be the aggressor claims that it will be the British.

I love rational arguments.

[grumpydoc]

Even the Remain camp are stating that house prices will ease as a result of a Brexit. To many people that would be welcome, certainly where I live, where you need to be earning £150k+ just to buy a £500,000 studio apartment. There is nothing racist in that.

There is nothing racist in stating that schools are under pressure from children where English is not their first language.

There is nothing racist in stating that the NHS is under pressure from health tourism because the NHS is so freely available to all.

All of those three things you mention are only perceived to be racist because individuals choose to manipulate it to be so for their own agenda. It is not racist to point out that these things happen.

No, straightforward statements of accurate fact are not in themselves racist.

But statements which are selective, sometimes inaccurate, irrelevant or peripheral to the point under dissuasion and made by those with an agenda knowing full well that they will play to the fears of the masses become something else entirely.

Not that either side has exactly distinguished itself in this debate (and I use the term advisedly).

[tggzzz]

Not that either side has exactly distinguished itself in this debate (and I use the term advisedly).

IMNSHO, it has become a squalid, disgraceful mass debate.

[NivagSwerdna]

it has become a squalid, disgraceful mass debate.

I have a feeling that politics had already become that, the public scrutiny just exposed it to the masses.
It would be good to hope for a more tolerant future... Sadly I think it will get worse before it gets better.

[rstofer]

We really don't do dynasties around here and getting this stopped in its tracks is a good idea.

Actually you do - far more than Europe.

Start with Bush Snr, then Jnr, and then Jeb tried to make it number 3.

Continue with the Kennedys; Jack/John was number 1, and Robert would probably have been number 2 if he hadn't been murdered.

Were there any earlier ones?

John Adams 2d President and John Quincy Adams 6th President (father-son)
Theodore Roosevelt 26th President and Franklin D Roosevelt 32d President (5th cousins)

There may be others but history isn't my interest.

George W Bush wasn't nearly as bright as his father and Jeb, well, Jeb isn't highly regarded either.  I actually thought Jeb would do better than he did.  Either name recognition didn't help or it helped a lot.  It depends on your point of view.  What I wouldn't have wanted to see was Rubio or Cruz as a candidate.

[Corporate666]

I don't normally give Polly Toynbee much time but I think that she hit the right note in this article The mood is is ugly, and an MP is dead. The Leave campaign is playing the race card and it is not pleasant.

The race card has been played hard, fast and often by both sides.

I've read tons of articles in the press and posts on various forums where the premise is "if you are in favor of Brexit, you're just a racist and hate minorities".

As these issues come close to vote, the voices get louder and as both sides get more desperate, they pile on the drama and accusations and firm their resolve not to listen to or consider any aspect of the opposing viewpoint.

[Zero999]

Yesterday on the news a UK farmer that wanted to leave the EU although she receives directly 45k GBP a year subsidy from the EU.
Still she wants to leave, well that is someone at least that has it hopefully figured out, although I wonder what her prices will look like in a year.

Because it's not all about the money. Plenty of people want freedom from the EU, even if it means they will be financially worse off.

[tggzzz]

We really don't do dynasties around here and getting this stopped in its tracks is a good idea.

Actually you do - far more than Europe.

Start with Bush Snr, then Jnr, and then Jeb tried to make it number 3.

Continue with the Kennedys; Jack/John was number 1, and Robert would probably have been number 2 if he hadn't been murdered.

Were there any earlier ones?

John Adams 2d President and John Quincy Adams 6th President (father-son)
Theodore Roosevelt 26th President and Franklin D Roosevelt 32d President (5th cousins)

There may be others but history isn't my interest.

George W Bush wasn't nearly as bright as his father and Jeb, well, Jeb isn't highly regarded either.  I actually thought Jeb would do better than he did.  Either name recognition didn't help or it helped a lot.  It depends on your point of view.  What I wouldn't have wanted to see was Rubio or Cruz as a candidate.

I wondered about the Roosevelts, but couldn't be bothered to check.

I think it is clear that transpondians do have more dysenteries (sic) than Europeans, at least in the last century or two.

[MT]

Washington post is a well respected paper, a US of A paper mind you!

Not anymore. It's now owned by Bezos and serves his political agenda.

Thats goood, thats gooood,

Well, pick a EU paper then if that makes you feel better..

Self preservation, pragmatism before ideology, avoiding identity politics, facing reality as is without
a dense smoke screen of political correctness, and avoiding a blind adherence to the status quo.

Oh yes self preservation and a weird ideology you will get from Trump, have Trump revealed his taxes yet?

The last two presidents here were no good.

He is a far better choice than the alternative.  First of all, he's a proven disrupter.  I don't think we'll be hanging around in the Middle East and, with luck and planning, maybe we'll be out of eastern Europe before the fireworks start. There will probably be some other disruptions in foreign relations and I'm all for that!

The alternative brings with her a pending storm.  Little Chelsea wants to be President just like her mommy and daddy. We really don't do dynasties around here and getting this stopped in its tracks is a good idea.

Yes you do dynasties.

Zpata criticized me for my lack of rational critical thinking so what he and some other Americans here are saying is that out of a 318,9 million intellectual "rational critical thinking" population all that they can come up with as presidential candidates is a: communist, a: dynasist and a: lame Mussolini impersonator!?



So Nixon was good? What about (picking random),Benjamin Harrison? Ronald Reagan?

From the wars in the middle east (over estimating benefit/cost), the rise of ISIS ('a JV team') doubling our national debt (each on his own), restricting the healthcare insurance market (try to change carrier mid year), more people on food stamps, decline in good jobs, terror attacks,
and rampant illegal immigration.  A rational American has many reasons not voting for more-of-the-same.

You are asking to much of your 2 party system, with Trump as president you might face a 1 party/person system as Trump would not hesitate to manipulate the constitution to suit his needs well Bush ignored it in parts, just as Putin manipulates his system. Ah i forgot that Trump adores Putin, find's him a reasonable and "strong man", does that mean that the Swedes should stop spy on the Russians on US behalf as they have done for quite many years already? US intelligence are extremely pleased of this "Swedish specialty".. Sweden and Us just recently signed a Statement of Intent, well not much in public but a lot behind the curtains, which gives US access to Swedish airfields in case Putin goes berserk! So with Trump as president is that cancelled?
 
Here is interesting report about Trump and prior presidents willingness to obey congress/constitution, maybe you will find a conspiracy lurking in Time mag as well...

http://time.com/4320105/donald-trump-u-s-constitution/

[wraper]

You are asking to much of your 2 party system, with Trump as president you might face a 1 party/person system as Trump would not hesitate to manipulate the constitution to suit his needs well Bush ignored it in parts, just as Putin manipulates his system. Ah i forgot that Trump adores Putin, find's him a reasonable and "strong man", does that mean that the Swedes should stop spy on the Russians on US behalf as they have done for quite many years already? US intelligence are extremely pleased of this "Swedish specialty".
Here is interesting report about Trump and prior presidents willingness to obey congress/constitution, maybe you will find a conspiracy lurking in Time mag as well...

http://time.com/4320105/donald-trump-u-s-constitution/

You should consume less propaganda on evenings. You are so concerned about Putin, but most of what you see are scare stories like those about Russian submarine 2 years ago which turned out to be bullshit as your defense minister admitted recently. Guess what was the purpose of searching non existent submarine:

. Sweden and Us just recently signed a Statement of Intent, well not much in public but a lot behind the curtains, which gives US access to Swedish airfields in case Putin goes berserk! So with Trump as president is that cancelled?

[Brumby]

This is, of course, the problem - there is always a gulf between reality and perception and there are always fears which politicians can use for leverage.

When it comes to any politically fought campaign, reality is completely irrelevant.  Perception is the only thing that matters.

If you can get some reality into the perception, then well and good - but it will have no greater power than straight out lies that are presented well.

Unfortunately.

[rstofer]

Zpata criticized me for my lack of rational critical thinking so what he and some other Americans here are saying is that out of a 318,9 million intellectual "rational critical thinking" population all that they can come up with as presidential candidates is a: communist, a: dynasist and a: lame Mussolini impersonator!?

No rational person wants the job!  We have a number of outstanding leaders but none of them are politicians.
Trump can't do as much damage as some folks forecast in the same way that Obama can't really implement all of his ideas (thankfully!).  The Executive Branch doesn't make the laws, they just selectively enforce them, or not.  And there is the possibility of impeachment...  I'm not worried about Trump but Hillary scares the hell out of me.  As long as the Republicans control either the House or Senate, things will probably be ok.

The thing is, the Republicans really want to go to war with someone.  McCain is always wanting to get involved in something.  Our work in the middle east is done, the place is in flames.   Eastern Europe should be heating up any day now.

[zapta]

...  The Executive Branch doesn't make the laws, they just selectively enforce them, or not.

Here they can also veto new laws, threaten to shut off the government,  control federal funds distribution, go to wars, and even make new laws (regardless how those things are called).

The pure model of three branches that is taught in civic class doesn't apply anymore. The central executive branch keeps growing, gaining more power, and becoming more intrusive.

[Jeroen3]

Eastern Europe should be heating up any day now.

No wars in our backyard. Keep your main export product to yourself for once.
It's about Brexit here, not the next cold war.

[zapta]

Eastern Europe should be heating up any day now.

No wars in our backyard. Keep your main export product to yourself for once.
It's about Brexit here, not the next cold war.

Very good, we will not need to bail you out again.

https://www.abmc.gov/cemeteries-memorials/europe/netherlands-american-cemetery